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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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yok70
post Jun 21 2013, 03:19 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 21 2013, 03:03 AM)
Guys,

Do not be a hero and click BUY here.. momentum still going because the trap door below that support is broken.
Plenty of time here, let it settle down. Seeing a lots of forced selling at L2.

I'm hanging on to my bear shares for now..   smile.gif
*
thanks for the warning. nod.gif
1550 seems to be the next support?
on a 1 year graph, the up wave was all the way up from 1350. A safer bet would be 1350-1450? hmm.gif

my Apple has turned bad. On paper -3.5% now. More to come perhaps. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 21 2013, 03:21 AM
yok70
post Jun 21 2013, 10:43 AM

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Based on US's fundamental, I have the feeling this bear can't be too strong. Maybe it just roar for a while, then follow by sleepy bear and sleepy bull leaving the market alone for a longer while. hmm.gif
yok70
post Jun 21 2013, 11:18 PM

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A little bear rest? Maybe close slightly red. Next week continue bear ride? biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jun 22 2013, 12:40 AM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Jun 21 2013, 11:34 PM)
10Y Treasury Yield at 2.5% already... sweat.gif
*
REITs and dividend stocks in danger. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 22 2013, 12:41 AM
yok70
post Jun 22 2013, 04:16 AM

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A writing on Apple:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1515082-st...es?source=yahoo

It said, "What's more compelling is that the bonds it recently issued become less valuable as rates increase, allowing Apple to book an accounting profit on the reduction in the debt. It is essentially shorting its own long-term bonds, while at the same time investing in short-term securities. "

What does it mean? I don't understand. Isn't the interest rate payment for the bond holder fixed rate? Then what's the difference for whether the bond is "valuable" or not?
Sifu please teach me. notworthy.gif

yok70
post Jun 24 2013, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 24 2013, 09:03 PM)
Mark Mobius: China's Problems as Big as US Subprime
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Here it comes, the perfect combination for storm. laugh.gif
yok70
post Jun 24 2013, 09:47 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 24 2013, 12:34 PM)
Aha.. I see. Yes, the (bond) interest rate is fixed and the investor will get what he/she invested at maturity but the issue is as interest rate rises, the bond value goes down. If the investor does not hold the bond till maturity, he/she decides to sell it, then they'll lose money -that's why bond holders now are nervous.

The author of the article is implying that AAPL knows about the rising interests therefore short sell its own bond (which it already has a fix interest at time of sale) and take the profits to buy short term higher interest securities.  I am not sure if AAPL plans to do that but it's just so happen coincidentally Fed plans to 'taper' down next year news got the bond bears excited.
AAPL may or may not be able to take advantage of this but the fact is AAPL already got more than 100 blns in long term investments outside USA which it already accumulated more than the interests it's paying for bond holders. I don't think this is a big deal.

Share prices move only when there is game changer product.. now everyone wants to know what next big thing coming out from AAPL lab.
*
Now I understand. Thanks! notworthy.gif

Ya, this is not a big thing for Apple. Just that with this, bulls are convinced that Apple has some pretty smart management teams, which is essential for a company to be defined as "good". laugh.gif
As some disappointment from Galaxy S4 already speaks for itself that continue innovation is very tough to maintain, when the focus switch back to realistic sales numbers and earnings instead of conceptual market share and leaderships, share price performance may return. I mean middle class is growing fast, as long as earnings is good and sales is strong, there is no need to fear of losing some market share. And the next big thing, none of the companies, including Samsung, are visible to us for now. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jun 24 2013, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 24 2013, 09:44 PM)
Chinese market really good for proxy shorts.. every year the same thing, when it gets to 3000, bam,
they hit it again. Same pattern.

Now, almost back to neckline.
*
wow. if repeat history, need to get back to 1500, that's another 40% to drop! sweat.gif
yok70
post Jun 24 2013, 10:50 PM

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QUOTE(ngaisteve1 @ Jun 24 2013, 10:38 PM)
I tot you ask for it  biggrin.gif

I can't imagine we back to 1500.
*
I don't mind actually. For SSE to drop 40%, HKSE probably will only drop 20%, that's good to buy more stocks for long term. Maybe can leverage to buy also. As in long term, I hardly see China could go wrong with current policies (fighting for transparency and a better financial system) tongue.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 24 2013, 10:52 PM
yok70
post Jun 25 2013, 02:11 AM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Jun 24 2013, 10:55 PM)
Damn, US market rebounding now

Drop more please  smile.gif
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really rebounding....aiya, dun lah. blink.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 26 2013, 09:35 PM)
Market still moving up on 3 day.. on long side play tonight.
SP500 next target 1615.

Psst..Take a look at NLY  (REIT) if someone wants to play some bounce for oversold condition.  wink.gif
*
window dressing this week? hmm.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 09:44 PM

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400 is really a strong resistance comes support on Apple. Hard to up and also hard to down line. tongue.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 09:59 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 26 2013, 09:54 PM)
Psst.. also want to play a China speculative antivirus ship? Take a look at QIHU.
Nice bullish trend despite the bear rout. This thing gonna to target 49 again shortly.  wink.gif
*
PE 149x?! super growth company? laugh.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 10:44 PM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Jun 26 2013, 10:38 PM)
Gold and silver keep making new low everyday.

Nice  thumbup.gif
*
gold all the way below 1000 also possible.
can only find bad news for it, nothing bullish. damn cham. hmm.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 10:45 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 26 2013, 10:37 PM)
Like I say speculative play only. Trade, not invest.  Get in, get out to make money.  laugh.gif
*
Trade also only dare to play fundamental strong stocks, since can hold if judge wrong. I chicken one. laugh.gif
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Jun 26 2013, 10:48 PM)
Since can hold if judge wrong  doh.gif

Bad idea for trading, if wrong just cut loss for me. I won't hold at all  biggrin.gif
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you are right, I'm not. laugh.gif

recently bought in some Apple and now paper loss 10%. It's now below 400, traders pov, should cut loss at 400. But I don't intend to do so. I plan to average down every 15-20%. So waiting for top up at 360-370, follow by 330-340. While my first batch bought at around 430. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 26 2013, 11:39 PM
yok70
post Jun 26 2013, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 26 2013, 11:44 PM)
As long you're not holding options, you should be ok. AAPL stock price will come back at the 430 level.  thumbup.gif

If AAPL dives to 360, I'm in!  drool.gif
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rclxms.gif
yok70
post Jun 27 2013, 09:56 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 27 2013, 09:38 PM)
Day 3 on bounce day.. initial claims are consensus. So, bulls not afraid here.

SP500 target 1620-1625 seen as resistance.  Let see if bulls got momentum to break through or not.
*
And Apple continues running down. 380 on the way. Let see can break through or not. tongue.gif
yok70
post Jun 28 2013, 03:54 AM

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QUOTE(Macrusin @ Jun 27 2013, 11:02 PM)
I was thinking to buy in some previously tim  brows.gif
Luckily, I hold  biggrin.gif
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good for you. thumbup.gif
yok70
post Jun 28 2013, 03:56 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 28 2013, 12:30 AM)
IMO, don't play long (bull) side for AAPL yet not it is ready for long term investment. It is still trying to find a bottom. Bears are in still control. Plenty of time later.  It seem to want to see 380x again..  wink.gif

Short term trade still ok but bear side is more favorable for every $5 move up, just get some weekly PUTs.
Drops $5 on the next wave down, take profit to scalp.  laugh.gif
*
if it managed to break 380, don't know if that could trigger panic sell or not. I guess the bear will rule until at least financial report out. July right? cool2.gif

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