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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 03:07 AM

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The meeting is 4 days or 1 day?
That's it? Close? shocking.gif
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 03:39 AM

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Bought 1st batch of Apple at 438. sweat.gif

yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(LOWYAT3AB @ Jun 11 2013, 09:19 PM)
APPL is likely to trade in the range of 440 to 455 until it breaks out up or down.

Just my observation. Not buy/sell recommendation.
*
oops, wrong timing.
market all red now. tongue.gif
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 10:08 PM

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I was wondering. If QE exits, are those money invested around the world, especially emerging markets, will fly back to US? If that's the case, isn't Dow suppose to be bullish? Well they might be worrying on growth sustainability without QE. People always worry on things. laugh.gif

yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 10:32 PM

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If so, then profit taking is just increasing cash in investors' hands. You and I hold more and more cash in hands waiting, banks also receiving more cash in hands after investors paying back their "loan".
All these cash has no place to go, but to invest back later.
If that's the case, what dream said kind of make sense. The correction will be brief. The bull is still winning over the bear.
hmm.gif
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 11 2013, 10:30 PM)
That is already happened. Look at USD vs other currency ( with China exception).  Stock index especially ASX , and Nikkei been dropping quite a lot lately. So some profit taking from table already happened few weeks ago.

I read a news somewhere Chinese Government start doing investment in US real estate ( The way how japan did it in late 1970's to early 1980's ).Maybe many of them re-enter real estate market? or just sitting their cash in bank?  hmm.gif
*
if they start buying real estate, i guess sign of recovery is quite intact.
bull all the way til year end? laugh.gif
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 11 2013, 10:43 PM)
I dunno man. tongue.gif I just hold my holding and do nothing while keep increasing my cash reserve.

The recovery really quite intact in US, but in China and Japan...the opposite happened. The economic well-being made by US will always cost something to other big economies such as Japan and China.

hmm.gif
*
I'm not sure about Japan. But I do not worry on China though. It's slowing down for sure, but in a good way so far. Consumers spending is still intact, that's an important sign of stability for its transformation from export to internal demand economy. Anyhow, I know it's still too early to make conclusion now. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 11 2013, 10:39 PM)
Got some AAPL calls in the 435... I'm holding here, and moving up my stop. 
Market in red but AAPL good for now.  laugh.gif
*
thumbup.gif
yok70
post Jun 12 2013, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 12 2013, 07:06 PM)
Sure man, they'll launch new products. But, market is not kind to those new products if it is just another cycle.
Take a look at share price before iPhone5 launch last Sept. Fast fwd 3 months (one quarter) later and their BIGGEST quarter
when they're expecting to have the biggest earnings in Q1 2013.  So, what happened?  laugh.gif
*
I am betting on the Apple Bear to get tired.
I'm not so sure as well, but I feel it's getting tired.
After 2 years of Samsung's glory, I am seeing Samsung's bull is getting tired slowly.
Samsung's products are feature rich with reasonable price, that is the key that attracts buyers.
However, speaking of style and uniqueness, Samsung's products never win on this part. Galaxy products look simple and usable, but not pretty, definitely not stylish as Apple's product.
My wild guess is, buyers will return to Apple even if it only playing catch up game. Moreover, I don't think Apple really that weak, although it's much weaker than Job's era.
The Mac Pro has already starts its magic broadly in Multimedia line. I am sure sales will be huge this year end when launching.
I am accumulating Apple shares on dips. cool2.gif
yok70
post Jun 12 2013, 09:19 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 12 2013, 08:13 PM)
Whatever you do, better watch your portfolio carefully. Chinese stocks taken to the cleaners very easily even for those big name ones like BIDU, DANG, RENN or SINA. Either they stay flat or down almost 50% for the past 12-24 months.

The small caps ones can go to zero or get de-listed easily. A lot of them did because they fail to report their earnings timely and then suddenly we hear of accounting fraud.  What a scam.. how did those pirates get listed in the first place?  shakehead.gif
*
True. Transparency is still the biggest issue on China stocks.
However, read some recent news saying some foreign funds start accumulating China stocks. hmm.gif
I also been started accumulating some stocks recently, with the hope that China has been on progress to correct those financial mistakes (transparency, systematic etc). But I also worry it may still too early to enter at this moment. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 12 2013, 09:22 PM
yok70
post Jun 12 2013, 10:14 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 12 2013, 09:53 PM)
Actually I think this time not bad to enter la. tongue.gif

Still long way to go, the foundation of financial market is still very weak. probably lag behind US for almost 30-40 years in terms of overall such as protecting retail investor etc..
*
I think the weakness has more or less priced in. China's large-cap banks are trading at 0.8-0.9x pbv and about 6x PE now. US banks at 10-11x PE and pbv quite different (WFC 1.44x, BAC 0.6x). Malaysia banks most expensive approaching or above 2x pbv with 14-15x PE.
So how low can they go while waiting for the financial system to mature, that's the million dollar question. sweat.gif
yok70
post Jun 12 2013, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 12 2013, 10:05 PM)
I think the best China play is still the US companies doing business there.. eg. the gaming companies like LVS, WYNN, MGM (or pure Macau play: MPEL). Seems to be doing pretty good. Chinese loves to gamble.  brows.gif
*
Actually I'm quite frustrating on how to value casino stock.
Many times I read quarter report from Genting, many times their revenue was good, but profit was so bad and they claimed it on less luck factor (customers won a lot). The earnings difference could be as huge as 30-40%! Like this how to valuate casino stock? Gambling too? rclxub.gif
yok70
post Jun 12 2013, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 12 2013, 10:53 PM)
Oh..I think market wants to go red!  Nice!

Down baby Down!!  brows.gif
*
wrong timing to buy.
hold back and wait. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jun 13 2013, 02:42 AM

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1600 coming...another 1% drop gaw dim! biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jun 13 2013, 03:55 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 13 2013, 03:18 AM)
Yeah, need for it to fail and drop to 1550.. I can untung big time if that happens by next month.  drool.gif
*
this is the time to see bear awaken or not.
if this still cannot awake it, then shall give up on bear this year. laugh.gif
next week dunno fed will kacau the bear or not. tongue.gif
sp up 23% in one year. healthy correction would be....10-15%? that would be about 1415-1500. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 13 2013, 04:00 AM
yok70
post Jun 13 2013, 07:04 PM

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QUOTE(countdown @ Jun 13 2013, 02:51 PM)
Very interesting read.
Thanks for sharing! rclxms.gif
yok70
post Jun 14 2013, 12:12 AM

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today's flat market could be a trap? only tomorrow can tell. tongue.gif

very surprise to see finance.yahoo.com 's voting if people prefer a bigger screen iphone. The majority is NO!! shocking.gif
sure boh? mostly voted by Samsung supporters is it? brows.gif
yok70
post Jun 14 2013, 03:26 AM

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climbing up unbelievably steady.
i guess today's that's it.
tomorrow closing would be interesting to watch. unpredictable. biggrin.gif

when is fed meeting next week? monday? notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 14 2013, 03:27 AM
yok70
post Jun 14 2013, 04:22 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 14 2013, 03:57 AM)
Stealth rally from the low after open, 1610,

See that soft ceiling:  1620-1625, after busted, then it's all rocket fuel!
1640-1645 next resistance level.
*
QE ends, funds flow back to US market. US market should be bullish? And emerging market (like Bursa) should be bearish? hmm.gif
yok70
post Jun 14 2013, 01:21 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 14 2013, 10:27 AM)
Overnight, market really strong bullish close. But, I don't like this rally.  shakehead.gif

S&P 1,636.36 +23.84 +1.48%
Dow 15,176.08 +180.85 +1.21%
Nasdaq 3,445.37 +44.94 +1.32%

Hoping we'll get head fake and whoosh down tonight.  brows.gif
*
I also feel yesterday was a bull trap.
However, as market moves 6 months ahead of the real QE exit, guess the bear may not be too strong and it will get really tired for the draggy staying. This benefits the bull. By then, investors already empty with cash in hands, can't do anything except start buying back. laugh.gif

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