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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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danmooncake
post Aug 2 2012, 09:21 PM

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Look at the fiasco made by KCG. Their horrible software almost made another domino flash crash yesterday.
No wonder that's dive in the morning yesterday. They deserved to lose $440m or even more.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087239...2083961412.html

On the other hand, FB hits new low here.. (20.63). This thing is going death spiral. rclxub.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 2 2012, 09:33 PM
yok70
post Aug 3 2012, 01:10 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 1 2012, 10:36 PM)
I hope Uncle Ben's team going to do nothing here and market sells off.
I'm would like to see SPX 1340 to come again.. got some PUTs to ride this down.  brows.gif
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your wish is coming up.......probably. now 135x....easily goes 134x.... tongue.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 3 2012, 01:10 AM
=o.0=/kua/11
post Aug 3 2012, 02:26 AM

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did anyone shorted banks prior to the draghi announcement ?
ngaisteve1
post Aug 3 2012, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 2 2012, 10:21 PM)
Look at the fiasco made by KCG. Their horrible software almost made another domino flash crash yesterday.
No wonder that's dive in the morning yesterday. They deserved to lose $440m or even more. 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087239...2083961412.html

On the other hand, FB hits new low here.. (20.63).  This thing is going death spiral.  rclxub.gif
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why FB getting lower?
blackking87
post Aug 3 2012, 07:11 PM

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QUOTE(ngaisteve1 @ Aug 3 2012, 01:42 PM)
why FB getting lower?
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overpriced offering,

even now PE still 100x
john123x
post Aug 3 2012, 07:37 PM

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QUOTE(blackking87 @ Aug 3 2012, 07:11 PM)
overpriced offering,

even now PE still 100x
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main reason is 80m of 980m accounts are fake accounts....


Added on August 3, 2012, 7:40 pm
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 2 2012, 09:21 PM)
Look at the fiasco made by KCG. Their horrible software almost made another domino flash crash yesterday.
No wonder that's dive in the morning yesterday. They deserved to lose $440m or even more. 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087239...2083961412.html

On the other hand, FB hits new low here.. (20.63).  This thing is going death spiral.  rclxub.gif
*
and they deserved it, they valued the wrong IT peoples.....

lots of IT peoples are "all talk but no action"

and i am the type that "talk and do", and sometimes bosses doesnt like us because "do" needs money



This post has been edited by john123x: Aug 3 2012, 07:40 PM
blackking87
post Aug 3 2012, 08:04 PM

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QUOTE(john123x @ Aug 3 2012, 07:37 PM)
main reason is 80m of 980m accounts are fake accounts....


Added on August 3, 2012, 7:40 pm
and they deserved it, they valued the wrong IT peoples.....

lots of IT peoples are "all talk but no action"

and i am the type that "talk and do", and sometimes bosses doesnt like us because "do" needs money
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How many accounts can they get?

There are only 7 billion people on the planet right now. Maybe they can find a way to make some money off that, but I really think the internet is bigger than facebook. I log in mine like twice a month.
pinkdevil88
post Aug 3 2012, 09:19 PM

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QUOTE(blackking87 @ Aug 3 2012, 07:11 PM)
overpriced offering,

even now PE still 100x
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PE is less than 70. Check your info.


Added on August 3, 2012, 9:20 pm
QUOTE(DJJD @ Aug 2 2012, 01:29 AM)
Not about the quality of the phones dude, its the fundamentals of the stock.

I'll take Samsung S3 over Nokia Lumia 900 anyday. And yet NOK has made me 50% profit over the last 2 weeks.

S is another stock trending well. Was late to the party so only made 50 cents on the share oh well.

Disposed of S and holding NOK.
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I hope you read the company financials. Good Luck to you.

This post has been edited by pinkdevil88: Aug 3 2012, 09:20 PM
danmooncake
post Aug 3 2012, 09:48 PM

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Here we go again folks, we got monster rally due to better than expected jobs numbers (163k for non-farm payroll).
UE ticks up 0.1% to 8.3% for July. biggrin.gif

We gap up.. Fed not going to do anything here, time to sell into this rally and take profits... laugh.gif

blackking87
post Aug 4 2012, 12:06 AM

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QUOTE(pinkdevil88 @ Aug 3 2012, 09:19 PM)
PE is less than 70. Check your info.


Added on August 3, 2012, 9:20 pm
I hope you read the company financials. Good Luck to you.
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https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:FB

Check google finance, PE 116.98
cwhong
post Aug 4 2012, 01:15 AM

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QUOTE(john123x @ Aug 3 2012, 07:37 PM)
main reason is 80m of 980m accounts are fake accounts....


Added on August 3, 2012, 7:40 pm
and they deserved it, they valued the wrong IT peoples.....

lots of IT peoples are "all talk but no action"

and i am the type that "talk and do", and sometimes bosses doesnt like us because "do" needs money
*
i do think is more than that friends around me already many created duplicate accounts (playing games to collect points/score) and some even lost the username and created new id using a newer email ...... bla bla bla
danmooncake
post Aug 4 2012, 01:22 AM

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QUOTE(cwhong @ Aug 4 2012, 01:15 AM)
i do think is more than that friends around me already many created duplicate accounts (playing games to collect points/score) and some even lost the username and created new id using a newer email ...... bla bla bla
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IMO, didn't matter if it's fake or not. The issue here.. how can FB makes money off its users.
Right now, it doesn't. So, no money and the IPO hype is gone, stock tanks!

The other social media site for professionals - Linked In (Ticker: LNKD) made money last Q,
stock soared despite PE @ 730.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 4 2012, 01:23 AM
pinkdevil88
post Aug 4 2012, 02:24 AM

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QUOTE(blackking87 @ Aug 4 2012, 12:06 AM)
THe figure is due to the different EPS figure quoted on Google finance.

Have been trying to figure out how google finance get to the EPS figure of FB 0.18 but couldn't get it. They probably got it wrong.

The problem with FB is the only Financial Statements published is their 10-Q report for the latest quarter. combined this info in their prospectus and you can try to figure out their TTM EPS

According to FB prospectus their basic EPS for FY 2011 Dec 31 is 0.49,
the 6 month ended June 30th 2011 EPS is 0.25 and
the 6 month ended June 30 2012 EPS is 0.02

Combine all these info and you can get to the latest TTM EPS 0.49+0.02-0.25 = 0.26

Yahoo finance is showing EPS ttm of 0.29 the difference might be due to rounding up and also the change in number of outstanding shares.

Using a EPS of 0.29 there is no way to get a PE above 100 even taking into the gain today.

all info can be found from

http://investor.fb.com/sec.cfm


I did notice on a few occasions that google finance and yahoo finance give different info and on my check, most of the time google finance was giving the wrong info. That is why i stop relying on google finance info, they are still in beta version.


Added on August 4, 2012, 2:28 am
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 4 2012, 01:22 AM)
IMO, didn't matter if it's fake or not. The issue here.. how can FB makes money off its users.
Right now, it doesn't. So, no money and the IPO hype is gone, stock tanks!

The other social media site for professionals - Linked In (Ticker: LNKD) made money last Q,
stock soared despite PE @ 730.
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Argh~ Give me a break. Looking at LNKD TTM PE is blatantly misleading. They have such a high PE because of the losses in last sept quarter. LNKD Forward PE of 86.53 tells a better story.

This post has been edited by pinkdevil88: Aug 4 2012, 02:28 AM
blackking87
post Aug 4 2012, 04:19 AM

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QUOTE(pinkdevil88 @ Aug 4 2012, 02:24 AM)
THe figure is due to the different EPS figure quoted on Google finance.

Have been trying to figure out how google finance get to the EPS figure of FB 0.18 but couldn't get it. They probably got it wrong.

The problem with FB is the only Financial Statements published is their 10-Q report for the latest quarter. combined this info in their prospectus and you can try to figure out their TTM EPS

According to FB prospectus their basic EPS for FY 2011 Dec 31 is 0.49,
the 6 month ended June 30th 2011 EPS is 0.25 and
the 6 month ended June 30 2012 EPS is 0.02

Combine all these info and you can get to the latest TTM EPS 0.49+0.02-0.25 = 0.26

Yahoo finance is showing EPS ttm of 0.29 the difference might be due to rounding up and also the change in number of outstanding shares.

Using a EPS of 0.29 there is no way to get a PE above 100 even taking into the gain today.

all info can be found from

http://investor.fb.com/sec.cfm
I did notice on a few occasions that google finance and yahoo finance give different info and on my check, most of the time google finance was giving the wrong info. That is why i stop relying on google finance info, they are still in beta version.


Added on August 4, 2012, 2:28 am
Argh~ Give me a break. Looking at LNKD TTM PE is blatantly misleading. They have such a high PE because of the losses in last sept quarter. LNKD Forward PE of 86.53 tells a better story.
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rofl, 86.53 isnt low either. Thats stratospheric. hahaha laugh.gif
pinkdevil88
post Aug 4 2012, 05:10 AM

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QUOTE(blackking87 @ Aug 4 2012, 04:19 AM)
rofl, 86.53 isnt low either. Thats stratospheric. hahaha laugh.gif
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Look at AMZN before you laugh. Still plenty of high PE stock.

This post has been edited by pinkdevil88: Aug 4 2012, 05:10 AM
foofoosasa
post Aug 4 2012, 07:25 AM

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QUOTE(blackking87 @ Aug 3 2012, 08:04 PM)
How many accounts can they get?

There are only 7 billion people on the planet right now.  Maybe they can find a way to make some money off that, but I really think the internet is bigger than facebook. I log in mine like twice a month.
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FB only have high % penetration of user in europe and USA.
There are still plenty of room to grow in term of account user.You log in twice doesnt mean other will log in twice.
If the management team come up with some innovative idea to earn more from these 100 million user, plenty to grow in term of revenue and profit.
I think this is quite reasonable "gamble" at least in my opinion.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Aug 4 2012, 07:26 AM
pinkdevil88
post Aug 4 2012, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Aug 4 2012, 07:25 AM)
FB only have high % penetration of user in europe and USA.
There are still plenty of room to grow in term of account user.You log in twice doesnt mean other will log in twice.
If the management team come up with some innovative idea to earn more from these 100 million user, plenty to grow in term of revenue and profit.
I think this is quite reasonable "gamble" at least in my opinion.
*
List of continents on Facebook
# Continent Users Penetration
1. Asia 232003100 6.00%
2. Europe 226941000 27.94%
3. North America 224232860 42.43%
4. South America 128611080 32.43%
5. Africa 44035100 4.72%
6. Australia and Oceania 13796760 39.81%


United states and Europe penetration are not among the highest. USA is only at slightly above 50% and Europe only at 27.94%

A lot of other countries and continents have far higher penetration rate. And do not forget China. THere will be one day when the communist government will be more liberal and open up the internet world so facebook potential is huge.

Exactly, the problem with facebook is moneytisation. and the challenge now is that most user shift to mobiles from pc to access Facebook. They do not have good apps, only slow and chunky app. and it is hard to display ads on a mobile phone. If they could not figure this out, it would be very tough for them.

In the long term(5 - 10 years horizon), i believe in facebook potential. I do not even dare to buy LEAPS, too risky and the commons is not worth to tie up my money with. So i rather stay at the sidelines and see the stock slide. I believe it could go down to the mid teens.
foofoosasa
post Aug 4 2012, 04:10 PM

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QUOTE(pinkdevil88 @ Aug 4 2012, 12:43 PM)
List of continents on Facebook
# Continent Users              Penetration
1.  Asia 232003100                        6.00%
2.  Europe 226941000                27.94%
3.  North America 224232860        42.43%
4.  South America 128611080        32.43%
5.  Africa 44035100                4.72%
6.  Australia and Oceania 13796760 39.81%
United states and Europe penetration are not among the highest. USA is only at slightly above 50% and Europe only at 27.94%

A lot of other countries and continents have far higher penetration rate. And do not forget China. THere will be one day when the communist government will be more liberal and open up the internet world so facebook potential is huge.

Exactly, the problem with facebook is moneytisation. and the challenge now is that most user shift to mobiles from pc to access Facebook. They do not have good apps, only slow and chunky app. and it is hard to display ads on a mobile phone. If they could not figure this out, it would be very tough for them.

In the long term(5 - 10 years horizon), i believe in facebook potential. I do not even dare to buy LEAPS, too risky and the commons is not worth to tie up my money with. So i rather stay at the sidelines and see the stock slide. I believe it could go down to the mid teens.
*
Yea, but the Users growth in europe and US are among the slowest in recent years. It suggest to me that most of the user left the computer illiterate or baby boomer and X generation.

Chinese got Ren Ren biggrin.gif, liberal? I hope so. This country don't have much protection on intellectual property, I wonder when they will become more liberal laugh.gif

Not only that, FB also have some problem to reap more profit from ads fee. Some study have shown that those ads advertised in fb have low click frequency. Probably most of the user are Gen Y and not interested to click on those ads biggrin.gif?

Continue go down or not I don't know. I will continue to buy some every week. Good luck for your hunting too.
Dividend Warrior
post Aug 4 2012, 04:19 PM

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Generation Y FTW!!!!!!!
zamans98
post Aug 4 2012, 05:24 PM

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FB breaks 20 and then made historic low and now back on track to 25$.
Good day for Fagbuk.



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