AAPL has a strong earnings and it is still undervalued by earnings. Not to factor in the future growth rate. With Iphone 5 and Apple TV launching soon i can see the only way for this stock is up up up. Initially I have a modest target price of AAPL at $720 and I think if there is a nice bull run towards end of the year, there is a possibility of AAPL hitting four digit.

There is this mentality that we should buy cheap shares so that the % of return will be greater. How wrong is this. Say if i split AAPL shares 1 : 100 and it is now worth $6.72 Does it looks attractive to you? It should be the same. The Value of the company stays the same, it is just that the number of outstanding shares increased.

Speaking about BAC. I believe it is highly undervalued based on their assets as well. They are trading at a Price to book ratio of 0.48 and a price to tangible book value of 0.72 But does this stock warrant a buy? not at the current price as BAc is struggling with earnings. BAC will need to perform outstandingly if they were to hit the analyst estimate of EPS $0.69 per share. Given if they made it, multiply this with the industry average PE ratio of 10. You will only get $6.90 per share. This doesnt look a bargain at the current price. However I believe Moynihan is doing a good job up there and a turnaround plan is in place. It is going to take 4-5 years at least for BAC to get things back on tract. That is barring any economic crisis. Not to mention, BAC is very sensitive on the Euro Crisis, any negative news will send the share price down to $ 6 - 7 price range. However, if you are in for the long term(4 - 5 years), this could be a value buy.

I am long AAPL since $550 and I did miss part of the rally when I switch my entire portfolio to BAC when AAPL was at $585(The day the new Ipad was launched). Now I am back to AAPL and am betting big(6 digit figure in RM) on their options. Let us revisit this thread end of the year and see what happens.

You have no numbers to justify and you say BAC will shoot up to $15 for no reason?? Do you know what is the EPS for BAC? I have no problem if you have a different view, but how do you justify this?

What is the problem to be obsessed with a SINGLE COUNTER? If you know this company inside out, you will be better off investing in a single company as you know when to take profit and when there is still potential upside. Unless you have a billion dollar then diversification will work for you.

Warren Buffett made most of his money from just a few companies, in fact a few trades. He is a strong proponent of a concentrate portfolio. Taking one of his quotation "Diversification is protection against ignorance". His right hand man, CHarlie Munger said “Wide diversification, which necessarily includes investment in mediocre businesses, only guarantees ordinary results”

If you are so afraid and want to diversify your portfolio, you might as well invest in an index fund to ensure you get exactly the same return on the index. That will be the same as investing in all the counters! Good diversification strategy?

I will be glad to invest in a company that has a high% of institutional holding, in fact this is one of my investment criteria as it will provide support for the stock price. If the share price is being pushed up due to the fundamental of the stock, strong future earnings and low PE ratio, I do not see a problem. In fact I would be happy seeing the stock price rising.

Hope you close your position by yesterday. If AAPL drop to 550 i will throw everything I have at it and hold for long term as it will hit single digit forward PE at 550 price.

I believe the consolidation period ended yesterday when the stock rise back 5%. I expect a blowout QE next Tuesday therefore there will be more upside till next week.

Analyst consensus EPS is at $9.94/share

Let's play some crystal ball game here. I am prediction AAPL will make 44.342 Billion in revenue.

Sales
4.7 million units of Imac
9.7 million units of ipod
40 million units of iphone
11.8 million units of ipad

Last quarter AAPL has a 28% net profit margin which is mind blogging. I am sticking with 26% which will return a 11.53 Billion of Net profit
Outstanding shares will be around 930million of shares which will bring my estimated EPS to $12.39

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Added on April 18, 2012, 6:26 pmBtw, anyone knows any platform that can trade pre market and after hours??

Also any way to buy an IPO? Am considering facebook IPO but depending on the price.

This post has been edited by pinkdevil88: Apr 18 2012, 06:26 PM

I hate to say this but you have not research much about the company and the product before commenting. You will know who stole the idea of IOS and mobile patent if you follow the lawsuits AAPL and Oracle is involved in.

SInce you are such an AAPL hater. Why Dont you try to short AAPL? or load up some Put calls? Put your money where your mouth is! The sooner the better. Next Tuesday will be the earnings date for AAPL, do it before its too late.

800 price before end of the year is possible. In fact in case of a bull run. I am up to a 4 digit valuation. A $50 EPS with a 20 PE ratio will seal it.

AAPL products command a premium compare to their competitors because of the ease of use and the ecosystem. No doubt spec to spec there are cheaper products out there compare to the iphone but iphone is the only product that could command such a premium.

AAPl has a gross margin of 40% and net margin of 25%. Please show me another electronic company which has the same margin.

Not necessary. Look at Amazon, their PE is 139.39 and this has continue for years so I believe their PE is sustainable. the investors has confident that amaon will make future profits to justify it. But this is one stock i would not touch.

Examples you gave HP, sony, Nokia and RIMM are all making losses or their revenue has been shrinking. Therefore their PE justify their position.

AAPL is the only company that has revenue and earnig growth over 60% YOY. Yet is trading at such a low PE. In fact their forward PE is less than 12.

The only concern of the investors is whether AAPL can continue this exponential growth since they are gettting so big.They hit 600B cap two weeks ago when the share price hit 640, the first time since microsoft has a 600 B valuation during the dot com bubble.

AAPL is trading at 587.44 yesterday. grab it while you can. It wont be at that level for long. Quote an analyst, AAPL at 580 is like Christmas in April!

You can never predict the bottom, AAPL can drop further depending on the broad market sentiment but if you are in for the long term this is a very tempting price.

I maintain that AAPL intrinsic value is higher than the price traded at the moment and it is just a matter of time when the market realised this value. The market just could not go through the psychological barrier of paying USD570 for one stock.

I am very confident going into earnings day on Tuesday that AAPL will beat market expectations.

Instead of coming here blowing hot air everytime when AAPL takes a dip and go into hiding when AAPL rise in value, why dont you short some AAPL? that would lend some credibility to your allegations against AAPL.

I think you learn something which is called relative return instead of looking at the absolute return. Why $3000 and not $4000 or $5000? To make things simple let's just say we need to look at the Return in terms of percentage.

Time to do some post mortem.

Actual AAPL Results for the Quarter 2 2012

Sales 39 Billion

4.012 million of Mac sales
7.67 million of ipod
35 million of iphone
11.79 million of ipad

Net profit 11.6 Billion
EPS 12.30

As you can see, AAPL didnt meet my sales prediction partly due to the shrinking US market. The verizon and AT&T data shows that the iphone activation in US is going down. However this is compensated with the international market.

What surprise me with last quarter result is AAPL margin. AAPL recorded a blowout 47% Gross margin and 29.5% of net margin. This also means that AAPL could record the amount of income and EPS i predicted with a less amount of sales. However i dont think AAPL can achieve this type of margin moving into next quarter due to the Ipad 2 and older iphone versions being offered at a lower price. But think about it, AAPL never fails to impress us everytime with its report, so we might see a surprise.

Looking at the sales prediction, I have over estimated the iphone sales and the ipod sales. ipod went down faster than i expected but that isnt a big concern. I am more concerned with the iphone sales. Next quarter iphone sales might slowdown due to the anticipation of iphone 5.

My previous model was built on the assumption a June release of iphone 5 and a ipanel in Q4 this year. Looking at the slim possibilities, i think chances are slim. Will need to rebuilt my model.

The share price closed yesterday at $610 is still relatively cheap based on the earnings and future growth of AAPL. For long term investors, this will be a good time to buy, it wont be at this level for long. Imagine, if AAPL could hit an all time high of 644, what could it do in the following weeks after investors fully digest last quarter report?

I am predicting a march to $700 within the next month. Until then I shall consider to take some of my profits and probably reallocate part of them to the shares. and gambling the rest on options with a higher strike price. 800 maybe?

Based on the report last quarter a $800 - $900 Year end TP is doable. Let's enjoy the ride up and sit tight!

This post has been edited by pinkdevil88: Apr 26 2012, 01:24 PM

You are still looking at abosolute figure instead of Percentage. Good luck to you. Imagine if BAC announce a 100 to 1 reverse stock split and the share is now trading at 817 - 840

still holding to your thesis??

You must be living on a different planet to trade AAPL at 18X earnings. If AAPL were to trade at 18X earnings it will be trading slightly just below $750.

AAPL has a trailing PE ratio of 14.41 and a forward multiple of 10X excluding cash.

This is a stock that makes 40% increase of profit yoy. so please let me know if this is a reasonable price for the stock. To me it is highly undervalue.

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Added on May 1, 2012, 11:35 pmEveryone starts with different capital. You may start with as low as $1000, no problem. You should focus on your annual % of gain and see how you go from there. Whether this is a good time to enter the market is very subjective, diff ppl will have diff opinion. The bears will think that Europe crisis will hit and it will be doomsday. The bulls will think that the economy is recovering and it will be a great year as this is a election year. Its up to you to decide and the most important is to pick the correct stock.

This post has been edited by pinkdevil88: May 1 2012, 11:35 PM

If BAC is trading at $817, You will need $81700 to buy 100 shares.

If BAC move $1, you will only get a $100 return from an investment of $81700. Isn't this absurb from your point of view??

Think again and apply this to AAPL.

From a valuation basis, let us see what is a fair price for AAPL

AAPL has a cash of 110billion which is equivalent to $116 per share

AAPL has reported $13.87 and $12.3 EPS for the first two quarter.

Assuming a very conservative EPS for the next two quarter at $10, would bring AAPL EPS to $46/share.

Assuming a no growth model and a 12 PE ratio, AAPL share will be worth ($46 X 12) + $116 = $668

Remember this price is assuming a no growth model and has a very low conservative EPS for the next two quarter.

If you still have no idea at what rate AAPL is growing, let's look at the sales per quarter.

Sales/Quarter
2009 Q1 $11.88B
2009 Q2 $9.084B
2009 Q3 $9.734B
2009 Q4 $12.207B
2010 Q1 $15.683B
2010 Q2 $13.499B
2010 Q3 $15.700B
2010 Q4 $20.343B
2011 Q1 $26.741B
2011 Q2 $24.677B
2011 Q3 $28.571B
2011 Q4 $28.270B
2012 Q1 $46.333B
2012 Q2 $39.186B


If you notice AAPL has made 80% of the sales in 2011 in the first two quarters of 2012. Digest the info and tell me how much is this company worth?? We are not yet talking about the china potential, and the new product launches. Not to forget Ipad is still in its infancy and has plenty of room to grow.

Let's also look at AAPL net income which is much more imprressive due to the higher margin recorded in recent quarters. I do not have the Quarterly net income figure so let us look at the annual net income figure.

Net income(annual)
2009 $8.235B
2010 $14.013B
2011 $25.922B
2012(Q1 & Q2) $24.686B


This post has been edited by pinkdevil88: May 7 2012, 11:57 AM

I am not buying for the next two months, macroeconomic factor dont bother me much as long as the company fundamentals stay intact. look at the next 2 - 3 years, i believe it will have an healthy grow. you can go for LEAPS to leverage on your investment as well.

ok, even when are are talking about the next two months. what does a $400 share price mean?? It means there will be a market crash and no other counter will be safe and the only possible trigger will be a greece default, a spain bailout, or a war on iran. Other than that i dont see a $400 share price on AAPL based on the fundamentals.

You still do not understand the whole idea i am talking about the stock price and value. I say focus on the % of change. Do not look at absolute value gain. The stock price has no relationship with the possible future gain. It all depends on the future earnings. A stock price at $10 is not consider cheap compare to a $500 stock. Remember to take into account the number of outstanding shares

Remember what you posted??

When did i say AAPL is a god stock? I said AAPL is highly undervalue in relative to its earnings. WB refused to buy because he is not certain if AAPL will still be the market leader in 10 years time. Even I have no idea where will AAPL be in 10 years time. But i can be quite certain in the near future 2-3 years the growth in AAPL is still healthy.

I have just switched 75% of my AAPL options to 2014 $800 calls, as i believe the catalyst to push the share price higher will come somewhere at the end of 2012 to the beginning of 2013, with the sales report of iphone 5 out in Q1 2013 and also the ipad sales maturing. Plus I am looking forward to the introduction of Ipanel before 2014 hence my decision to switch over. Will take profit on the 2013 700 calls when the share price breakthrough $700. To those who believe AAPL is a copycat company producing imitation product, please continue to short AAPL in the long term and we shall see where will we be end of the year.

I am getting out of all my long position today until the situation in greece gets clearer. If Greece default this will be a hell of sell offs but this pose a very good opportunity to pick undervalued stock. I am ecstatic now, this will be a very good opportunity to make money. On the other hand, i am accepting my losses. Right now market sentiments is so strong that fundamental does not matter as fear rules. I am still thinking whether to short any stocks but have no idea.

BAC looks to drop below $7.00 If it drops below $6 I will start looking at this stock as it will be at a very attractive price but depending on the consequences in greece, this stock might go all the way below $5

The worst case I would imagine is a eurozone breakup. But the first thing that needs to happen will be a greece default. Let us see how the events unfold in Greece.

I am seriously thinking of shorting banking stocks after the talk of greece coalition government failed. Dont have balls to short BAC though, they passed the stress test, not much exposure to european assets, forward PE at 7, price to book ratio 0.37 which is insane meaning you could buy BAC assets at a 60% discount. The only problem with them is that they need to buck up their earnings to justify the share price.

Probably looking at some european banks, maybe BCS because of their exposure to spain and italian assets.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/23922568/Most%20Ha...%20America.pdf/

Bac has cut down a lot of European assets since 2009. The most exposure to the troubled nation is at around 1b which is manageable. The contagion effect which is sth that bac should be worried about.

Research rePort by independent firm written last dec. I trust them more than wall street analyst.

http://themarketsareopen.blogspot.com/2012...k-nyse-bac.html

Depends on your ST or LT plan. If you wan to buy n hold, this is at a very attractive price. If u wanna trade then think twice, ST Greece effect n the eurozone breakup possibilities.

This stock is subject to manipulation as traders use super computers to trade bac, this means the stock will b more volatile. It is also the most active stock in NYSE n NASDAQ for quite some time.

I'm going long AAPL leaps today. Buying back what I sold off last week. 2014 Jan 800 options.