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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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yok70
post Nov 1 2012, 06:50 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 1 2012, 06:14 AM)
Depending on your time horizon..575-585 should be good spot 'coz the 200ma is here already.
550 - maybe dangerous spot because next dive is around 520-530 support.

Anyway, I got my 2nd price target to exit @ 600.. (gap fill area) achieved... halloween party time in office.  biggrin.gif
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Thanks for your feedback. notworthy.gif
icon_rolleyes.gif
yok70
post Nov 2 2012, 03:27 AM

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Looks like Apple is going to stay flat for today... hmm.gif
FB continues to fall?..... tongue.gif

Does sifus think Well Fargo is expensive now? It's one of bank that benefits the most from housing loan right? notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Nov 2 2012, 03:28 AM
yok70
post Nov 2 2012, 04:44 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 2 2012, 08:04 AM)
I think WFC is cheap now..(33.50 ~ 33.75).  Trailing PE: 10, Fwd: 9..

That's the same price that WB bought more after the earnings missed about two wks ago.
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Wow, then I am interested to play this long term....since US housing recovery seems warming up....do you see it this way too? notworthy.gif

yok70
post Nov 3 2012, 06:54 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 2 2012, 08:42 PM)
Long term as in ???  (weeks? months? years?)
What your timeline?

WFC is consolidating now... between 32.80 and 33.50 is a good buy if you can get it.
Danger if falls below 32.50

For bank, I'm playing C. You know this.. it's a much tradable stock but I'm not really long term for C.
I got some positions left to let this bad boy ride up with trailing stop..It's treading up slowly.
Hopefully, it may break 39 shortly.

Also, if you're thinking playing banks for housing recovery.. that may not be a good proxy 'coz
low interest kills banks profits. Look for REITs..or homebuilders stocks.
AAPL - iPAD mini goes on sale... but lines aren't that long. So, it may not be a hot item as many would think it is.
But, on the other hand..MSFT surface tablet indeed generating a lot of buzz. This thing could be next thing the PC windows users could be waiting for.  For the past few days, MSFT is seeing a lot of money flowing into it.


Added on November 3, 2012, 3:21 amUpdate:
AAPL Price Alert 585.00 at 14:02:52 EST US
The AAPL dam has broken.. waterfall....All hands.. becareful, wear thick gloves if you want it, it has turned into falling sharp knives.  shakehead.gif


Added on November 3, 2012, 3:30 am
AAPL PRICE ALERT: 580.00 at 15:24:34 EST
Flooding downstream.....
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My long term means few years if things go well. biggrin.gif
Thanks for the concern on low interest rate worry. If economy recovering to a better shape, the interest rate should also raise right? But ya, I believe that could be years away before it really happen. As on REITs, I guess I'll just buy Malaysia REITs since their performance are quite stable and nice.
Do you think C is a good proxy for US recovery? If housing is recovering, I guess the whole country also will be recovering too? notworthy.gif

Apple had reached beyond my target of 585! Anyway, I haven't bought in. Still hesitating as it continues to fall.... sweat.gif
Really? MSFT surface is a hit? That's a surprise! shocking.gif

yok70
post Nov 4 2012, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 3 2012, 07:32 AM)
Bears not only like fish but likes AAPL too..    biggrin.gif


Added on November 3, 2012, 7:42 am

Interest rate only rise if the central banks feels that the economy is too hot and wants to reign in the money supply.
Now, the economy is still cool... not even warm yet.  World economy is still recovering.. I think we got a few more years (Uncle Ben say.. 2015 before his team will act.. by that time, he's already gone).

Personally, I don't like Malaysia REIT at this price.. I think it's heading towards a big bubble with all the speculation - just like US back in 06-07.  I like US reit now since the bubble has burst, deflated and on its way to recovery. Riding the recovery is less dangerous than riding the bubble.

No, I don't think C is a good proxy for US recover... if housing is recovering, it DOES NOT mean the whole country will recover.  The main issue is jobs (employment) in US.  Need unemployment go back below 5% first, then their major consumer economy will be back later.

As for AAPL.. just watch it for now. It broke the 200MA (588)..  don't catch the falling knives.  Wait for your buy signal later.

But, traders like me like to juggle knives... so I got some thick gloves to wear to play along.  laugh.gif
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Thanks a lot for your comments. notworthy.gif

True, Malaysia REIT has been up high, yield is compressing. Gotta neutralize my REITs holding for yield concern. Stareit seems pretty good at the moment with yield of above 8% for FY13 expecting Australia's acquisition can be completed successfully by this year end. By then, its assets diversification will be better at about half in Malaysia and another half in Australia. Local retail REITs valuation are quite high now. nod.gif

Can you recommend some good REITs with growth potential in the US for long term investment? Thanks! notworthy.gif
yok70
post Nov 5 2012, 03:04 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 4 2012, 11:00 PM)
I like US REITs but I can't recommend any at this time because many of them still have to do a lot of research before putting real money in especially because it is all regional specific. It's all demand vs. supply and housing data always lagging. Different region, different demand. One area is booming, the other area is still recovering.. Have to be pretty picky. Right now, midwest area is growing faster than the west or east or south coast because of the oil fracking boom. US is 50 times size of Malaysia, so maybe difficult to say everything is healthy in general.

But, I particularly like the builders supplliers..or the home materials providers that SELL to the builders.

For example: HD - Home Depot - huge home suppliers this company is like the AAPL of the IT sector but they function in home building.
During recession or slow down, they sell to those who want to remodels.. during boom times, they sell more to the builders who are building new homes... pretty good solid balance sheet so far and ok dividends.

That's why I think if housing is recovering.. I think banks can't make much money because of the low interest, low margin, and much stronger regulation that prevent them from investment or trade but the suppliers of homes materials will make money better than banks.

Disclosure: A member of my family owns HD stock.

Having say that eventho I like HD, I'm NOT recommending buying HD at this level.  wink.gif
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Appreciate your feedback very much! notworthy.gif
I'll look into this HD and if it's good, I can wait for a good entry price. thumbup.gif
Lets see if next few days can see panic market or not for president election. biggrin.gif

Thanks again! icon_rolleyes.gif
yok70
post Nov 6 2012, 01:50 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 6 2012, 12:23 AM)
No, that's not advise. Just my opinion. Everyone is free to share their views here.  laugh.gif

At 200MA price line, I would go long here not so much playing the short game unless
something really bad comes out from AAPL.

Took some profits at 585, trailing stops moved up to 581.. so far.. everything seems stable tonight.
If this thing goes to 589/590..before market close, I close out my longs and may play a little short
for a little scalp.  brows.gif
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Looks like Apple continues to move down. Wondering if I shoul buy if it hits 550.... hmm.gif

btw, do you like MacD at current price? It has been pullback for a while. Again, as few years type of long term target with its pretty nice consistent dividend payout. At current price should have around 3.5% yield I think... However, just read a recent article saying currently 16x is still too expensive and he prefer 14x which is at price of around 75. laugh.gif
yok70
post Nov 6 2012, 02:11 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 6 2012, 01:56 AM)
Yes, I like MCD here.. 86.xx. Look like bottom is forming. Maybe mid 85.xx would be a good price to get.
Fwd PE: 14.xx, not too bad.

YUM price action is better but more expensive (in terms of PE) but better growth opportunity esp. China.
*
Ya, very steady long term stock price upwards also. Its over 20x PE and 1.9% yield is expensive. Waiting.... biggrin.gif
yok70
post Nov 6 2012, 02:38 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 6 2012, 02:20 AM)
Which fast food chain do you like to eat better?

McD or KFC/PizzaHut?
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I know Pizza Hut in the US taste much better than in Malaysia.
So my picks are KFC -> MacD. (and Pizza at other restaurants)
However, one thing is that KFC is pretty tight up with oily deep fried chicken, which is against the growing trend of "healthy food" and "slim body". On the other hand, MacD has much more flexibility of changing its Menu. ie. local MacD serve rice, vege burger....etc. biggrin.gif


Added on November 6, 2012, 3:45 amTomorrow is the last day for trading before the election?
Can today be a trap day before tomorrow's big falling? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Nov 6 2012, 03:45 AM
yok70
post Nov 7 2012, 02:42 AM

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So green? Why? hmm.gif

Is the counting of votes on going now? Or need to wait tomorrow to come out in one batch? notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Nov 7 2012, 02:52 AM
yok70
post Nov 7 2012, 03:01 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 7 2012, 02:53 AM)
It suppose to happen tomorrow.. so market is making the move now, well ahead of the election results.
So, when finally over.. either nothing will happen or major sell off.

Just brace for impact.  I'm done tonight. No movement in AAPL.
Should have bought SPY instead...  doh.gif
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C is moving though. unknown reason?!.... hmm.gif


Added on November 7, 2012, 3:05 amIs this the current official results?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20009195

If so, it seems obama is going to win? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Nov 7 2012, 03:05 AM
yok70
post Nov 7 2012, 03:23 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 7 2012, 03:20 AM)
No, not yet.. wait about 12-16 hours later. US polls still running .. they got 4-5 timezone. Hawaii and Alaska people just woke up!

Sometimes those people in the far west coast are pissed off because the polls closed in east coast that they counted and the networks start projecting... then people gave up going to the polls if they know who's winning.  laugh.gif
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Exactly. The website posted currently Obama(28 states) vs Romney(14 states) vs Others(1 state).
As total of 51 states, Obama has already won more than half!
hmm.gif
yok70
post Nov 7 2012, 03:40 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 7 2012, 03:30 AM)
I think those are just congressional votes.

US got a system.. where you can become President eventho your congress are ALL OPPOSITIONs party.

Anyway, the president isn't voted in by the people directly.. that's up to the dedicated electoral college.

They said Romney could win popular votes.. but Obama wins electoral votes. If it happens, going to be like Al-Gore/Bush in reverse.  laugh.gif
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It also stated that National congressional results:
Senate 100 seats
37 Republican seats 30 Democratic seats 0 Others

I guess a cleaner win can make market more bullish. Otherwise there will be endless meetings ahead that put lots of uncertainties into the market. unsure.gif
Oil and Gold strong rebound so far. hmm.gif

I hated Romney's face btw. He just looks like one of those bad white guy in a Western movie. A bad white guy who always points his gun to shoot the innocent Indians. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Nov 7 2012, 03:41 AM
yok70
post Nov 7 2012, 04:23 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 7 2012, 04:08 AM)
Darn it.. I should have continue the shorts for AAPL.. it's still be hammered down. Could have make more money.  mad.gif
The last 2 days uptick trend now broken by that squeeze.
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We all don't have crystal ball mah. laugh.gif

So you think it will down further? 550? hmm.gif
yok70
post Nov 7 2012, 11:49 PM

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bear bear are here. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Nov 8 2012, 12:49 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 7 2012, 11:55 PM)
564... that you go...dam has broken.  Got out.
No buyers... even here to support.  shakehead.gif


Added on November 8, 2012, 12:02 amok.. I'm in 561. just for a quick scalp here.. showing relentless selling.


Added on November 8, 2012, 12:25 amAAPL officially landed in bear territory (below 564).

If closes here by tonight... it will be food for bears for some time.  biggrin.gif
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55x reaching.... biggrin.gif
yok70
post Nov 8 2012, 01:14 AM

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it's broad US market profit taking now, not just apple. dunno this will last how long. hmm.gif
yok70
post Nov 8 2012, 02:15 AM

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Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) still has “brilliant people” and “amazing new products,” but the company has hit its peak and has nowhere to go but downhill, according to a former employee. Dan Crow, a former engineer manager at Apple and also a past employee of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), wrote in an opinion column in The Guardian on Wednesday that several changes in the company after the death of co-founder Steve Jobs as well as its recent “missteps” have led him to believe that the best was over.
“I think Apple has peaked and the story of the next few years will be one of a slow but real decline,” Crow wrote. “There are a number of signs. The most visible recent one is the Maps debacle. Replacing Google Maps with an obviously inferior experience shows how much Apple has changed. Apple’s success had been all about offering users the best possible experience; suddenly it is willing to give users a clearly worse experience to further its corporate interests — in this case its long-running dispute with Google. We might expect this sort of behavior from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), but we don’t expect it from Apple.”
Our 20-page proprietary analysis of Apple’s stock is ready. Click here and to get your Cheat Sheet report now!
Crow added that he believed there were signs of a “creative slowdown” at the company and cited the example of the launch of the fourth-generation iPad, which came just over six months after the third-generation iPad. “[iPad 4] doesn’t improve substantially over the previous version, yet has managed to annoy users who just bought an iPad 3,” Crow wrote. “This insipid update is not the sort of magical product launch on which Apple has built its reputation.”
Crow added that Apple was built in Jobs’ image and with him gone, it was suffering from “serious structural faults.” He also pointed to what he felt were recent dents to the company’s public perception. Although Crow said he did not believe the company was likely to go the way of Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) or Nokia (NYSE:NOK), he wrote that “the pace will slacken and … it will not return to the levels of execution and brilliance we saw in the first decade of this millennium.”

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/is-appl...to-an-end.html/


Quite true of what he said....
World middle class population is surely increasing in the next decade. Question is, if Apple really turns into an just average brand instead of current premium brand, can its profit still surging over the years? Since other companies are basically sharing market shares from Android and the still small of windows platform, when Apple has no competitors on iOS platform.
And I've no idea if the Apple TV can fight with Samsung TV.
hmm.gif
yok70
post Nov 9 2012, 12:50 AM

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Apple looks weak....I guess more selling ahead.... hmm.gif
KO a good long term play? Dividend quite ok.....less growth potential than YUM? hmm.gif
yok70
post Nov 9 2012, 03:42 AM

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Apple is still weak. RSI at 20 range now....i think reaching 10 range also no problem, it's previous May low was at this range. 500 on the way. hmm.gif
Another emerging tech play is also coming down...Google. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Nov 9 2012, 03:44 AM

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