IMHO - after a bout of fear, any spark of light may lead to irrational hopes. It doesnt mean that the causation of the fear has been resolved or that the sadness may end right there. Then again, human exuberance and short memory may triumph over an oncoming train as "the market" movements are usually made up of human emotions

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 30 2011, 08:18 AM

bro - usually "bullish" dont follow "bearish" nose-to-butt leh. There is a "cooling off" period after a bear attack where the market just flat-lines, not JUMP or BOUNCE up.

Technical rebound or dead cat bounce, your choice. Dead cat bounce is more vivid and descriptive & easier to understand IMHO .
Just a thought

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 30 2011, 08:07 PM

Yes your costing is correct - pls remember to add the SWITCHING charges to it yar.

Your idea works or not is another Q.
Since U lump sum / sai lang and not doing consistent periodic investment via DCA or VCA:
If U switched to Bonds already
1. When will U get back into Equity? What's your entry rule?

2. What if after U re-enter, it keeps falling?
a. Fall by XX% - what will U do?
b. Fall by YY % - what will U do?

3. What if it goes up and keeps going up?
a. Climbs by ZZ% - what will U do?
b. Climbs by AA% - what will U do?

4. What if it neither reaches a drop OR climb % of the above for ? years?

U've got a good idea - but it's incomplete, thus U need to further refine it, ESPECIALLY when U are just doing lump sum. Those of us doing periodic DCA / VCA has risk management spread out via time. Your's is via entry & exit rules only
Just a thought.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 3 2011, 02:08 PM

Eh - dont lar like that sis. Big Gov giving spendable $500 cash per household wor for households below $3K pm.
$500 wor - can tah pao lunch for work like 3 to 4 months OR save my mutual funds' average value when i buy in using lump sum of $500!
They are so kind - i sure vote them wan.... IF i was born yesterday

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 9 2011, 05:36 PM

bwhahah - yar lar, in addition to the great +1% employer's EPF mar, got $500

BTW, most folks who went woohoo on the +1% may not "get it" that most employers will most probably deduct the $50 from our monthly pay increment or yearly bonus.

err... simple funeral + cremation (ie. EXCLUDING grave plot) for my dad in 2002 was $20K+ leh. Nowadays, no idea inflated to how much

Bro - dont need to BELIEVE for markets to rise/fall.
Local sentiments are bad/miffed at Budget 2012 (popularist / sandiwara budget that doesnt do squat in effect)
+ Foreign sentiments are edgy on Europe's issue & USA's "moping around" economy "growth".
Fundamentally (and mentally ), nothing's changed yet and the freight train's still coming.

Just make sure our personal economy is stable and we'll be able to come out stronger as long as the filthy grubbing Gov hands are off our wallets

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 10 2011, 12:07 PM

Yes - it will go down and up and down and up
Bro - it doesnt matter what we THINK, it'll just happen due to fear/greed and unless one comes up with crystal balls that work, no one can advise U better than yourself.

Bro - if U've been reading the data, Greece cant settle their debts leh.

Ignoring a total default possibility - ie. Greece declares bankrupt and doesnt pay back any of it's debts), the other possibility or given option after the EU Summit is Greece's private bond holders (read as private CREDITORS... not debtors, my bad.. not enuf coffee ) are forced to take a 50% hit on their bonds.

Think a bit - if U personally can CONvince yr banker to write off 50% of your debts... that means? Bankers aint that dumb - they'll take some rather than 0, right? Thus, how deep a kaka do U think Greece is in?

Just my 2cents yar - not gospel truth

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Nov 4 2011, 08:02 AM

Just an opinion - Greece going down in a blaze of glory, (be it bankrupt / default like Argentina last time) or swallow pride and toe the line to get the $ from EU, is just 1 of the smaller worries i think. It's the effect it would have on bigger but also shaky EU nations (Portugal, Italy, Spain = PIS ) and their creditors' & banks.
ie. a smaller spark may ignite a huge chain of explosions

Thus the crazy swings - can they save the day (EU) or not AND how are they going to do it?
Save Greece?
Let Greece die and instead focus on shoring up the PIS countries?
Germans & French are still cheesed that Greece is mulling around whether to take the EU deal and toe the line

Simple visualization:
U offer to help your bro out of his debt dilemma which he'll be bankrupt if U dont, WITH conditions that your bro shapes up
Your bro then tells U that hard lar to shape up & toe the line because his 1st wife no like lar, his 2nd wife say this lar, his children like that lar.
Wont U be cheesed off?

Just my armchair view yar - may vary greatly .

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Nov 4 2011, 08:12 AM

Yup - one needs to MEET & SIGNUP with the new agent (forms not online) to create the new account for a new/existing fund held by one.
Then later, one will be able to select the new agent, old agent or none online when topping up.

and i wish we can "game" PB or PM that way
Back to reality - nope, still get whacked 5.5%

er.. AngLee82, based on 10 years stats if the calculations are done now, PB's & PM's equity funds return's ranges from about 10.6623%-14.2944%pa CAGR using PM's FPAdvisor. HOWEVER, please note that this figure (CAGR) is highly dependent on which year the calculation is run - eg. in a dip (end 2008) or during high run (eg. 2011) - the 10 years stats ending 31/12/2008 will show a range of about 6.1203%-9.12%pa CAGR.

Take a peek at both the files uploaded here and compare. Thus, the 10%-15%pa return on average for 10 years you're expecting may not be too realistic.





As for your PB Salesman saying now = good time, when going down.. it depends..
If U are doing lump, it ISNT good.
If U are doing value / dollar averaging, ok ar.
Best Qs to ask yr salesman are:
a. What are U doing yourself now?
b. Can see your track record?
c. What is your entry & exit plans? Why like that?


---------
hm.. DesertKid, U like my "signature" eh? Have me met before?
eh - dont lar say i'm a good financial advisor, i'm just sharing my own views, tested approaches and stats. Afterwards one of the big kahunas here come after my butt leh

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Nov 22 2011, 07:54 PM

Bro - that's his theory, havent tested in real environment yet
Bila cuba, baru tahu (theory workable or not)

er.. sorry ar bro, i serong a bit a Q
Y the need for "faster" pricing update?
IMHO, we're dealing with mutual funds, not gold spot price or KLCI futures, where time is measured in seconds and profit/loss is measured by per tick or even half-a-tick.

It's like getting onto a cruiser / easy rider bike and expecting it to perform/move like a Japanese sports bike
The flow of time and profits/losses are very different... ohm...

Just a thought - apologies if i accidentally stubbed any toes

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Nov 23 2011, 04:33 PM

For Lump sum, value averaging, dollar averaging or split lump sum Entry?

sorry ar bro - i thought U were the one recommending to go in, thus asking more specifics

me - i've been doing continuously value averaging + dollar averaging since several years back
+ waiting with lump sum to "SAI LANG" IF financial market goes to hell (major hell IF combo of PIIGS + China slow/hard landing + more unrest in mid-East + more natures' wrath like Thailand, Japan, Turkey).

because:
1. More optimistic ppl than pessimistic ppl in the market?
2. More long buying than short selling?
3. A throw of the dice?

I dont think ANYONE can tell for a fact WHY - there are just too many real variables and psychological variables

Best to see the KLCI movements until mid-day, then only decide and execute online before 4pm lor. Remember - mutual funds uses end-of-day to price their NAV (which we pay + service charges%).

I still remember 2008's KLCI 10% drop by afternoon, kicking up the auto-short-circuit to close KLSE - now THAT's the time to buy into PIX if one had the nuts, then sell off a few days later (assuming one's an agent lar, thus lower cost)

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Nov 25 2011, 06:55 AM

For PM's equity funds, cash investments' service charges is 5.5% of which 2.75% goes to agent (pls correct me if i'm mistaken)
For PM's equity funds, EPF investments' service charges is 3% of which 1.75% goes to agent (pls correct me if i'm mistaken)

Thus personal cost to me is calculated as:
Cash investment: 2.75% goes to PM + (2.75% which goes to me as agent *26% income tax)
EPF investment: 1.25% goes to PM + (2.75% which goes to me as agent *26% income tax)

Side note:
There's this thing called Agent Pink - it's like monthly DCA deducted from commissions only (cant put in cash monthly). This is invested at NAV without any service charges. The amount per month is dependent on one's level in the group.
Unfortunately i'm still at the bottom heheh coz i dont recruit actively nor sell sell sell (i'm at heart an investor - cant bullshit ppl to buy buy buy when it's not to their advantage).

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Nov 25 2011, 08:09 AM