methinks best revenge is to SHOW the current idiot agent how much he/she is losing out by investing properly with another agent (or self as agent)

"Vengeance is best served cold" - hehe, i interpret "cold" to be "cold hard logic"

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Added on September 12, 2011, 8:18 pmIMHO the local market's a sea of red with tidal waves now (bearish trend).
U may want to wait for the tide to fall first or risk "being pulled into the deep red sea and drown"

On a flip-side, if U are targeting staples like NESTLE, DLADY or plantation sector - these looks "more" steady than the rest. Of course the "tide" (trend) usually pulls down or raises all "boats" (stocks) though

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 12 2011, 08:18 PM

Value Cost Averaging.
Some more details/books links
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/690951/+1162

Dunno about other fund houses but for PM, methinks it's incorporated into the yearly mgt fees, which are calculated and deducted pro-rata daily from the NAV, not the service charges since it's a yearly continuous charge.

Personally, i think EPF is just being a pr*ck UNLESS the 0.25% or the post 2008 0.125% goes back into our EPF a/c1 EXCLUDING EPF's handling costs.

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Added on September 14, 2011, 8:01 amPersonally the 0.25% is no issue BUT the "yearly" is the issue
Er.. note that it's 0.125% since 2008, not 0.25%

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Added on September 14, 2011, 8:04 am"Admin" fees OR the infamous person who said "U scratch my back, I scratch your back"
thinking of that.. i feel so.. ew... to be a Malaysian. (oops off topic - sorry mod)

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 14 2011, 08:06 AM

Personally:
Keep on executing and tracking as per planned
1. 50% of $ for equity funds on DCA + VCA no fear / no greed programmatic investments
2. 50% of $ for equity funds awaiting current bearish Trend to get into accumulation trend

What about U? Share share lar - dont just be angry

Your average cost: $0.32
Current NAV: $0.2678

Plan:
a. if goes up to $0.28 SWITCH to bond fund
b. if goes down to $0.26 buy more

Hm.. just a thought / opinion ar, not gospel truth reality
Scenario 1
U'd switch out of something that goes UP although still at a loss? (exit rule)
a. er... if i am cutting losses, i'd have switched out when market was FALLING into a distribution trend, not when it goes up
b. i'd only switch out when it goes up to take / lock in profits at abnormal profit returns. Mind U, my personal entry rules are either buying value/trend accumulation mode, and value averaging, which by default, controls my risk exposure.

Scenario 2
U'd buy more when going down (entry rule)
THEN switch out of something that goes up, although still at a loss OR break even? (exit rule)?
a. ok.. buy more when going down ie. averaging down the cost
b. switch out when it goes up a mere $0.02? er.. wouldnt that be like below your cost (ie. loss) as U need to factor in service charges and what not during your new purchases?

Thus, just in this old rat's Point of View, the basics dont look too logical.
Of course your reasoning may differ due to other things like needing the cash or just fedup show hand win or lose, etc.

Hm.. Mois' triggers actually do-able leh but tweak a bit lar

1st point triggered bought in
continue falling

2nd point triggered bought in
continue falling BUT doesnt hit 3rd point of 500

Instead goes up past 2nd point's trigger say about 3% higher, buy in lar coz going up (strengthening market) and still of value mar

Worse case if KLCI does fall to 500, bro Mois would have another 33% of ammo to buy
Tiuk boh?

Of course same flexibility can apply if fall doesnt hit 2nd point trigger and same reasoning as above.
Just a thought.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 14 2011, 07:19 PM

Heheh - different folks have different calculations to arrive at the 6 phases of a cycle (recovery, accumulation, bullish, warning, distribution and bearish) and even different time-length.

Generally, as i'm aware (i may NOT be that AWARE ar ), there's:
a. short term (20days+/-)
b. mid term (50 days+/-)
c. long term (200days+/-)

For example talking about KLCI trend:
Based on how the 20days moving average (MA) of KLCI VS 50days MA of KLCI VS current end of day (EOD) of KLCI is, U get the short-mid term trend
Based on how the 50dma VS 200dma VS EOD, U get the mid-long trend

For example of calculation (using the TrendAdvisor book's formula):
IF EOD<50DMA AND EOD>200DMA AND 50DMA>200DMA = Warning mid-long trend
IF EOD<50DMA AND EOD<200DMA AND 50DMA>200DMA = Distribution mid-long trend
IF EOD<50DMA AND EOD<200DMA AND 50DMA<200DMA = Bearish mid-long trend

If U look at the example above, U'll notice the logic (moving from Warning to Bearish) that the fall becomes steeper and steeper.
Similar REVERSE situation for Recovery-->Accumulation-->Bullish

Please note that a trend does NOT go straight down or up, but there is very high probability it'll shift to either "left" or "right" or stay on current trend

REFERENCE: recovery <--> accumulation <--> bullish <--> warning <--> distribution <--> bearish<-->recovery
eg.
Say we're in a bearish trend now
There is high probability that it'll stay in bearish trend (still falling like a stone)
OR slow down while still falling (moving left to distribution)
OR hit bottom and flat line and crawl slowly up (moving right, to recovery)

Note:
+ve trend = recovery (flat line and crawling up), accumulation (steeper climb up), bullish (holy kaka steep climb up)
-ve trend = warning (flat line and crawling down), distribution (steeper fall down), bearish(holy kaka steep fall down)

Quick quiz
Thus, based on probability AND value, the best time to get into equities IF one doesnt have any running investment program is?
AND
if one doesnt have any proper plans (ie. main tikam) when bought in earlier, when would be the best time to get/stay out?


Oh crap.. i just noticed this thing is in PM thread/topic. Most mutual fund investors arent Trend users but i know some agencies are and some (note only some) are adept at getting their customers in/out of equities and into bonds. Please note that i'm not advocating that U use Trend as a tool blindly. I'm sharing it here for U to digest and see if it fits what U want to learn/use and then go do your own entry/exit plans yar. Your mileage may vary and U may have better methodologies

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 14 2011, 09:28 PM

Good precaution, any investments U do with EPF, even for paying down mortgage or education with A/c 2 should beat 5%pa with a healthy margin.

Having said that, some funds do perform better & some worse than EPF's 5%, based on historical performances of 3, 5 and 10 years. Be aware that one loses 0.25% to 3% straight away when moving $ from EPF to mutual funds. Thus, time * good long term performing funds are required to beat 5%pa compounded.

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Added on September 15, 2011, 6:40 amHehe sorry yar. I usually don't spoon feed, thus I expect ppl to Google a bit for basic stuff like moving averages . TQ for taking the time & effort to understand.

Best time to get in based totally on Trend = accumulation phase
Coz either left/right/stay in same phase = still going up, remember the high probabilities?

Best time to get in based on Trend & value = recovery phase. U r spot on
Best time to get out based totally on Trend = distribution phase
Coz either left/right/stay in same phase = still going down.

Raw data for personal tracking of trends can be from newspapers for KLCI EOD points or exported from stock booking online systems. For specific mutual funds trend, U can get NAV from online or yr agent with access to price history system. Throw these EOD / NAV into an Excel and cook . Please be aware when cooking fund's NAV that the during distribution of dividends, it will does the trend downwards & thus, U may get faked out that it's in a -ve trend

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 15 2011, 06:40 AM

Nice - especially on looking at the fund's underlying theme/benchmark index/stocks.
IMHO, a fund is too convoluted to evaluate value - heck stocks already tough to evaluate, think of a basket of stocks AND U only know these basket of stocks AFTER the fund house prints & send U the quarterly reports! Thus, looking at the fund's underlying theme/benchmark index/stocks is one of the best & fastest way to judge value.

However I suspect they skewed the article for "advertising & marketing" purposes
Note that they showed the UPSIDE potential only in their table, where's the downside potential?
Sorry to nitpick but as a cautious and value investor, methinks one should also look at the down side - like momma says, Look left AND right before crossing the road

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 16 2011, 08:13 AM

Thanks Koinibler for being bear bait - now the hunter killers can move in AFTER the bear is full and zzz
Joking! Joking! Pls dont use that voodoo doll on me

The trend is your friend until the end (when it turns). BTW, most people, including me previously, thinks that Trend analysis = predicting the future. It isnt - it's just seen how the tides ebb & flows, thus, knowing when to go out to sea for crazy fishing or anchor the boats / do anchovies fishing

Careful not to bite the bear with too big a mouthful wor as another dip may occur within months 'ala 1997 & 1998
Being clawed to death by bear WHILE mouthful of bear fur isnt fun

Mois - perhaps we can learn from "Friday the 13th" and other horror shows here. ie
1. When see dead bear, dont assume dead
2. Shoot the damn bear a few times first, preferably head shots, from afar and have the car engine running (ie. put in a % of investment $ and get ready to run/counter)
3. See any "bad" reaction - as in it jumps and tries to run at U?
No? good, go to 4.
Yes? run like hell since U are far enough and have a car already started to outrun it and repeat step 1.
4. Go nearer and chop the bloody bear's head off + burn the carcass, then celebrate (ie. put the some left over % of investment $ in)
5. Watch out for bear's family members coming for revenge! (ie. thus U arent celebrating your smartness until die also dunno what happened)
6. WHEN not IF, the bear's family member comes - repeat step 1. again

Lots of things we can learn from movies hor

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 20 2011, 11:47 AM

Just for a "feel":

1997 to end 1998 drop, from top / max point --> to bottom point, was about 80%
2008 to end 2008 drop, from top / max point --> to bottom point, was about 40%

Corrections are "usually" about 20% drops, the above are NOT corrections but major impact thinggies
Note - we are now about 11%+ drop from top / max point of KLCI

Thus, U can take a queue from those based on one's risk/reward appetite.

Eh? For Trend/Value or my quarterly buta DCA+VCA (TwinVest)?
heheh TwinVest still chugging along every quarter - bit by bit ($xxK EPF held in PSBF + $xK Cash allocated per qtr)
No fear, no timing, just value averaging (75%) mostly
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for Trend/Value opportunity - when mid-long Trend Accumulation phase in my own calculation .
No idea when the KLCI will by then though - hehe, no idea until KLCI reaches it.

Then i jump in 50% of of allocated $xxk EPF held in PSBF.
Another 50% if Accumulation phase goes on for 3 months AND 1st entry makes net profit %

EXIT both if Trend reverses from Accumulation-->Recovery-->Bearish
OR Trend goes on from Accumulation --> Bullish --> Warning --> Distribution
Scary ride heheh

Gambate!

Wah liao eh Mois, dont lar "put me on the table"
Like i shared earlier - i dont trust a methodology 100%, thus i'm splitting my investments entry/exit into 2 approaches/methodologies
a. Programmatic (no fear/greed)
+Entry based on TwinVest and amount allocated per program (eg. EPF PAGF, EPF PSSF)
+Exit based on per transaction's net profit of more than >=xx% within 1 yr
OR >=yy%pa if held more than 1 year
SWITCH back to PSBF cost +10%pa expected returns, let the abnormal net profits continue riding
thus win in terms of lowered risk/exposure since abnormal profits liao
+ win in terms of letting the abnormal profits continue going up if the market still bullish

b. Trend / Value
as per earlier posting's (Post #431) Entries & Exits

I'm trying to simplify as much as possible thus any of my family/relatives/friends and even my little girl can do it when she's older

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Added on September 21, 2011, 8:22 amYup yup - i've got a buddy that wants to start with his EPF now.
We've laid out the plans and accumulating ammo in his PSBF
to start 2 TwinVest programs when KLCI goes into Recovery phase
& Trend into PIX, when in Accumulation phase.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 21 2011, 08:25 AM

9 points up = how many % ar?

Spot on bro.
Visualization (PG18 for graphical goriness):
Bear food / victim is running like crazy, just managed to get slightly out of reach of the bear's claw for now,
AFTER being clawed and bitten 11%+ of body parts (ie. missing a hand and arm?)

Can the bear food / victim continue out running the bear
OR
Bear's claw / teeth going to get the fler again for another toe/finger/arm?


Closing 8.4 points up, but in % = 0.6% of KLCI nya

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 21 2011, 08:15 PM

When lost or in hole, stop and get your bearings first.
May i suggest back to basics?
Things like $ mgt, risk mgt, Asset Allocation, Target/Goal setting for investments (time horizon, how much per month/qtr/year to allocate to what & how much expecting returns on average yearly, Entries & Exits (how to execute all the above).

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Added on September 21, 2011, 9:17 pmKoinibler - hehe, dont lar "put me on table". Bonescythe lar, he's the sifu in equities and funds. I'm a "newbie" comparatively (with vivid imagination & visions, especially about bears & Jason from Fri13)

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 21 2011, 09:17 PM

BlueSilver - i'm sorry i dont have a black/white solution for U. I'm not U and in your specific situation.

However, having said that, U may want to switch your equity funds (or at least 50%) back to bond funds WHILE U learn/plan ahead.
IMHO being in equities when one doesnt really know what's happening is akin to driving a car (people usually take classes to handle the power)
VS being in bonds is like running (more dangerous than walking as U are going faster and need to be more alert)
VS being in FD is like walking (er... really basic basics)

Just to share what i did when i found myself "lost" donkey years ago (things relating to mutual funds only, stocks/REITs are another story heheh):
a. I SWITCHED ALL my funds back to Bond Funds
b. While i went back back to basics to learning, testing, tracking
+ $ mgt & risk mgt: these 2 are the biggest impact that shaped my approach now). BTW, U cant manage what U dont track & dont have plans/goals for

+ Asset Allocation: some major stats/research points to Asset Allocation being the biggest impact to a total portfolio, not stock picking or funds picking. Looks to me holistic planning, tracking & managing is the way to go. 2nd biggest impact to my approach now.

+Methodologies / Entry & Exit rules

c. Built my goals/plans
+knowing how much i want/need for my goals
+Asset Allocation + selection of vehicles based on average expected returns pa to reach my goals
+Methodologies / Entry & Exit plans to execute the above
Value investing & programmatic investing
Based on the methodologies i've put $ in to test (only about 2 to 3 years, not 10 yar ) + simulated via Excel's random numbers for pricing, these 2 fits my personality (chicken + simpleton).
Value - coz i love bargains and there's less probability for much % drop
Programmatic - coz i needed something else than Value, which has a human-trigger, thus emotions like fear & greed can cloud judgement

Your mileage may vary

BTW, dont worry about "missing the boat"
Prices/NAV go up slow but falls fast (think gravity)
Think 1998 sloooooow climb up after ASIAN Currency Crisis
then buta kena whacked by US DOT COM bust sharp down 2001
then slow climb up to 2006/2007
then sharp whack down by Credit Crunch Crisis & US Property Bubble 2008
then slow climb back to end 2010
then sharp whack down mid 2011
phew.. just trying to make a point going down = fast, going up = slow

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Added on September 22, 2011, 8:05 amJutamind, looks good - holistic enough as long as U couple that approach to a fund house that has "good enough" equity and bond funds

Just a thought:
IF the market trends up for 8 years SLOWLY after a crash (eg. end 1998 to 2006) ,
the NAV will not go down,
thus U dont participate/buy in (yr current methodology averages down only when 8%-10% down from your TOTAL AVERAGE PURCHASED PRICE)
U may miss a MAJOR part of gains and time lost.

No righter-right or wronger wrong ar. Best methodologies are those that fits one's personality, attitude and time/effort to be spent on donkey things like investing

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 22 2011, 08:12 AM

Gold sifu Phophetjul, share share lar yr modded worksheet

Zip the Excel first
Then under the posting , there's a File Attachment area.
Click on Browse, select zip file
Then click on Add This File
All above Add Reply button