Let me give the other side of the story.
I'm licensed to deal in shares,futures and unit trust and my experience can be considered as long, more than the age of majority of u.Im in my 50s.My background is in accounting .

No one know for sure when the market is going up or coming down,(else ,he will be a millionare long time go)so, no one can advise you precisely when to enter or exit the market.At the end of the day,you,as the investor yourself,hv to make the final decision,Your Dealer's Representive can only advise you and he could be wrong in his assessment.

Secondly,I must stress that in any profession,the interest of big clients are always better taken care of.So,if your volume is not big,you will still be entertained but don't expect to be served like a big customer.Sorry to say this but it's a fact of life!You should follow the market closely and ask for opinion from your Remisier.

And one advice from me,don't go for short term trading in the stock market,invest on a long term basis and I 've seen people making money in the stock market this way.

To make things clear,Remisier =Dealer's Representative,Future broker=FBR or Futures Broker's Representative.

TQ,TQ,I will be more than willing to share the little bit that I know with all the forumers.
As I came to this forum to seek help and knowledge on IT,I hv received unreserved helps from other forumers,I should also contribute my fairshare.

The problems with the Malaysian stock market at the moment are,IMHO,can be broadly categorised into internal and external,internally:

1.There's just too many stocks listed for a small country with population of 24million.The number of stocks listed is around 1000 now,New IPOs (initial public offerings) are coming on stream at the average rate of at least one per week.There's excess supply now.

2.Some listed companies are performing badly or r badly managed ,losing money everyday and their share price fall in tandem.investors get hurt and many just hold on hoping that the share price will recover only to be shocked later that the company get suspended,delisted,or some kind or capital reduction and cash call excercise that is not worth taking up.

3.Restructured companies get into financial difficulties not long after restructuring due to ,inter alia,bad or dishonest management,assets injected at inflated prices,application not properly vetted and approved by the authorities,and more seriously,fraud in the submmission.Small investors get hurt and loss confidence in the market.

3.IPOs are priced too high.Since the authority changed over to DBR(disclosure based regime)companies r free to fixed the IPO price ,thus,many investors loss money again.I feel that at this stage,Malaysians r not that sophisticated yet and r not ready for DBR.

4.Corporate governance is still lacking in many public listed companies.

5.Insufficient and inefficient enforcement against offenders,perceived selective persecution and political influence.

6.Some unseen forces supporting certain index linked stocks giving false impression
of the market .leading to erosion of investor's confidence.

7.Government policies on 30% bumi requirement,thus ,many well run,good quality, family owned companies hesitate to list.This requirement is also frown upon by foreigners.

Externally,

1.Other markets in Asia pacific is more attractive than klse.Foreign funds will pick the market that provide the highest return.

2.Flip flop of gov. policy,foreigners don't like this.

The abv r just my opinions,I welcome feedbacks and corrections from other forumers

BTW,Vincecyc,I am still in the industry but "semi retired",ie ,Ionly come in to the office to jaga the few good accounts.

I hv not read the book mentioned and don't think I can give u a straight forward answer.

If you look back the KLSE for the last 10 yrs,the Index has tested low of 300 and a high of 1300.It is around 900 at the moment.(I don't hv the actual figures with me and am speaking from memory)
Whereas if u look at individual stock prices over the same time horizon,some stocks appreciated by leaps and bounds,but some stocks r trading at a fraction of it's price 10 yrs ago.

So,whether the mkt is on a uptrend is individual's perception.

My clients stopped trading in the futures market few years back.I'm just renewing the license everyyear to keep it .
I will try to give some reasoning as to why the Malaysian futures market is illiquid other than Crude Palm Oil and KLCI.

1.The concept of hedging is relatively unfamiliar in Malaysia,There's fear and stigma relating to futures trading and is frown upon by many producers and consumers,this resulted in poor liquidity and if the retail client find that there is not enough liquidity ,they will shy away.This really is a chicken and egg problem as the hedgers also will not participate unless there is enough liquidity.

2.As mentioned by you,investor's education ,one of the important link,is lacking.The education process should also be extended to include the producers and consumers that hv not been using the futures market to dispel their fear and to start hedging in futures.The bond and klibor futures are very good products where banks can actually used to come out with new lending instruments where interest rates can be pegged and the borrower know exactly their cost of borrowing over the tenure of the loan.Unfortunately,the futures contract did not take off.

3.There's perception by some retail clients that there is unseen forces interfering in the price discovery mechanism which I tend to concur.Look at the divergence of prices in the cpo and klci and the cash mkt that occured so often especially towards expiry/maturity of the contract.Retail clients hv been bitten too many times.

4.With due respect(if u r a FBR),there r some FBR(Futures Broker's Representative)that r not very ethical ,they only care abt their commission income and either churn the account or advise the client to trade freqently beyond their financial abilities.I think FBRs should take a long term view of their career and put client's interest abv all others including FBR's own.I may sound holistic but that is the only way for us to survive in the industry.

5.There were many many futures contract thst did not succede,tin,cocoa,rubber,palm kernel oil,just to name a few.many of them did not succede due to no demand.I think the exchange has learn some lesson and is launching less new contracts now.

6.The govt must leave the running of the exchange to pure enterpreneurs and not bureaucrats.Commercial decisions should not be overuled,eg.the single stock futures was vetoed the last minute by Dr M (hearsay only but quite reliable)

Sorry.some are out of topic!


Pl feel free to give your views and feedbacks,lets learn together.

Trading short term in the market is normally accomplished with the aid of charting,aka technical analysis.There r many different charting techniqs but the final aim is to try to determine the best opportunity to enter and exit the mkt based on past history of price and volume.

I consider my self a long term trader and seldom trade shortterm .

Trading in any market is an art,not a science,so,a techniq that worked now may not work in future.

In short term trading,you may get it right 9 times,but when u get it wrong 1 time,the losses may well exceed you cumulative gains.Of course,if u r part of the syndicate ,then the reverse will be true.

Again,the various breakouts and indications can actually be "manufactured" in a illiquid mkt.This is especially true if there is no proper enforcement.

So,I leave it to u to ponder whether u want to trade short or long term

Er,u mean trading in paper instruments pegged to gold etc or actually buying the physical commodities from a shop like Tiffany or Poh Kong?

Oh yeah,I was referring to stock,not futures.Sorry abt the ommission.

Wow!this topic is getting very interesting and I can see many sifu such as whtrader and khoong25 giving their learned views ,I believe some r based out of Malaysia and is trading actively in the futures market.

To answer u Geminist,I must first clarify that am giving my view base on the Malaysian context and is on the local stock market only.I hv to make this very clear because as mentioned earlier ,the Malaysian stock and futures market still lack the depth presently and is not that suitable for short tem trading.So,if other forumer read my reply without knowing my basis,they may get the wrong impression.

If u want to trade long term in any stock market (ie,investing)some basic skills u must hv r, u must be able to assess the worth of the investee co.U need to know to read and interprete financial statements,cash flow statements,director's and auditor's report ,u need to be able to assess the main biz of the investee co to see whether it is growing or dying(eg,stockbroking),u need to be able to compare the financial results and growth potentials with cos in similar biz activities,u should know what is earning per share,dividend yield,NTA etc and u should also read and compare research reports by different research hses on the investee co.A mouth full yeah?

Coming back to u Geminist,I think it is really no harm to learn Technical analysis.The Malaysian stock and futures mkt do,once awhile ,though rare ,provide good trading opportunities.However,if u hv the patience to go long term based on fundamentals,u can invest without knowing Technical analysis.

In long term investment,my strategy is to pick the co.with the best growth in terms of profit and consistent dividend record over the past few years from the sector/industry i deemed growing.I will then look at the management to exclude cos with not so good records in the past.I do share your concern that many PLCs in Malaysia hv little or no concern of corporate governance

After deciding on the potential investee co.I normally take my time to accumulate the stock bcos company of this nature is normally thinly traded. If subsequently,my assessement turnout to be wrong(I follow my investee company's announcements closely )which do happen quite often,I will not hesitate to cut my losses.In summary,there's a lot of work to be done before investing.

Mutual fund is never my liking as the entry and exit cost is quite high,on top of that,one hv no say in the investment decision.Bursa is now coming out with new instruments such as ETF(Exchange traded funds)and REITS(real estate investment trust) which is very similar to mutual funds but the entry and exit cost is very much cheaper.Again,be forewarned that know what u r buying before investing .There r only very few ETF and REITS listed now with the latest being Icapital Biz Bhd which is a closed end fund .

With regard to the books,I afraid that I am not able to help u on this as I picked up my little understanding on Technical analysis from trainings that we r required to attend as a prerequisite to renew our license.Hopefully,other forumers can help u out on this.

If u start your selection process by picking the sector first,ie,banking,gaming ,plantation ect,you will be able to narrow down and reduce vast amt of screening the thousand of stocks listed.

In Malaysia,u can't short a stock without first having bought the stock earlier,ie,no short selling.That's why IMHO,Malaysia still lack the depth for sophisticated traders.

I don't think anyone will want to invest in all sectors.For eg,knowing that garment manufacturing industry is in the doldrum now,no one will want to put their money there.

AFAIK,unless u hold a private banking a/c,individuals hv no direct access to Govt Bonds.Nevertheless,investing in Govt bonds only give u slightly better interest compare to other interest bearing instruments available in the market.There is no capital gains.

There is an alternative,the Ambank group recently launched a Bond Fund listed in Bursa which can be bought and sold in quantities of 100 unit(Stock name ABFMY1 and stock no. is 0800EA).This bond fund invest in Malaysian Govt bonds which is what u r looking for.But mind u,this instrument is very thinly traded and there is unlikely to be any capital appreciation.

This post has been edited by lklatmy: Nov 7 2005, 09:14 AM

Volatility can work for you if you r right,it work against u if u r wrong.

Futures trading is a zero sum game,every dollar made,there's a loser.

If u(I mean other forumers) are new,I would advise you to refrain from short term trading until you hv gain enough experience and build enough guts.and yes, never be greedy.You can't fight the big boys.A case in point is the CAO case that happened recently in Singapore.

This post has been edited by lklatmy: Nov 7 2005, 12:01 PM

It is a case where the hedging programme gone wrong by China Aviation Oil in Singapore.Check this

http://english.people.com.cn/200412/10/eng...210_166900.html

Google for "China Aviation Oil"for more

1.You must first be accepted by a Securities firm as a trainee and prepare for the qualifying exam.

2.After passing the exam,you can apply to the Securities Commission for your license vide the Securities firm that you are attached to.Check this:

http://www.sc.com.my/
(Check topic "Licensing")

I am surprise that at the current market condition,you are still interested to join this industry

This post has been edited by lklatmy: Nov 15 2005, 09:33 AM

I was thinking of starting a new thread but on second thought,since there are many learned forumers here,I think there will be more response if I post my topic under this thread.

The topic is regarding the rights issue of Iculs by Berjaya Corporation Bhd that will be closed on 5th Dec2005.

By a series of scheme of arrangment,Berjaya Group(Bgrps) shareholders,warrant and Icul holders will be given new shares in Berjaya Corporation(Bcorp)follow by a rights issue of Iculs in Bcorp at par value of 50 sen.There will also be bonus units of .27 for each rights Iculs subscribed.

Bearing in mind the conversion ratio of 2 Iculs to 1 Bcorp share,zero coupon ,and past history of corporate governance.what do you think Bcorp share and Iculs will be worth upon listing in late Dec or early Jan.2006

I think the mkt will continue drifting like what it is now for another few mths.Any "bull run"will be confined to a few counters and upside very limited.

This is something I think,a get rich quick pyramid scheme.It appears that late comers will be the sucker when the party ends.I doubt the participants hv any recourse against the perpetrator of the scheme as their identity is concealed.I am amazed by some posting which showed checks issued by some Malaysian banks,this can be a lead for the authority to track them down.

As for the forex trading part,I don't think any company in Malaysia (except for some licensed financial institution like Citibank,Hongkongbank, Maybank ect)is licenced to take on individual clients to speculate in forex.Though some companies r licenced to trade in derivatives in the overseas mkt.If any company in Malaysia solicits you to trade in forex or derivatives,I think u should double check the company's license with the Securities Commission.

If you trade forex thru the internet with a overseas company,make sure that the company is licensed by the regulatory authority in that country.In the event that anything goes wrong,you can refer your grivences to the competent foreign regulatory authority for resolution.

Again,my advice is know what you are trading,there's no free lunch!

I hv nothing against Technical analysis but I don't think it is suitable for long term investment in the Malaysian stock mkt.
I think Technical Analysis is more suited for short term trading in the Futures mkt where most trading is on short term basis ( a position is usually closed within a span of maybe less than 30 days).Whereas investing in the stock mkt requires patience and foresight as well as the ability to find suitable investible stocks.

There was a quote I remembered that 80% of clients loss money trading.

There's another weird investment I heard of,"pu-er"tea leaf from China.pls don't ask me what's that b'cos I also know nothing abt this.