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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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property101
post May 6 2011, 01:46 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ May 6 2011, 01:29 PM)
this debate very similar to when i live in shanghai from 2004 - 2009; 2 camps are debating if the price will further increase or drop.  at the end,the price continue to shot up like nobody biz.  many of them have gave up waiting and buy their 1st prop for own stay. shanghai is like a magnet, many graduates from all over china flocked in looking for job here (due to much higher salary than 2-3 tier cities). it is scary when u visit the job fair in shanghai. even the job fair is making money from the graduates. (lot of scam too). will KL be the same?? i think it is much depend on msia economy model. if msia open up like china and allow all co (non bumi and foreign) to compete in msia (no bumi preference, biz frenly etc) , msia economy will grow very fast and house price will be same like china, singapore etc. however, if msia continue to close door, then soon we will far behind indonesia, thai, vietnam etc. (which is more biz frenly countries)

so, which do u prefer?

slow economy --> affordable lower cost house (like 5-20 years ago with the protected NEP)
fast economy (like china model)--> high price house (after najib etp?)

i asked many ppl in china , most of them prefer the later. they dun want to go back to ming, qing, mao 's closed door era. (house is cheap, some even free and u can build house in any place u like). But today they want to participate in the economy growth, most prefer Deng's open economy model.  (except Tibet??)

what do you say?? May be different race has different preference? 
Malays/Bumi prefer protectionism NEP
non Malay prefer open door /full capitalisme model??

i think both has it pro and con.
if slow economy, everyone is poor (like today msian vs many advance countries) but no fighting
if fast , rich poor gap is very very wide, like US, China, Singapore etc (if u are smart ofcoz u like this model)
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why must we choose this or that? cant we have something in between? smile.gif
property101
post May 6 2011, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ May 6 2011, 03:26 PM)
cheap loan is there many years ago...
of coz this is also part of the reason for speculation..
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if my memory serves me right, cheap loan only came since 2009
property101
post May 6 2011, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ May 6 2011, 03:42 PM)
Ya, most of the time, price won't drop, but abandoned properties, or vacant property.  tongue.gif

No transaction, so price didn't drop...  biggrin.gif
that will the answer for home owners who are planning to buy a property but waiting for property price to drop
property101
post May 6 2011, 07:03 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ May 6 2011, 06:00 PM)
i don't understand why many people still thinks that once installment is higher than rent collectible, it's all doom.
and of course i can't speak for others especially investors if their school of thoughts are the same but consider this:
assuming the loan to be rm3k per month. how much goes to interest and how much goes to interest. this is going to be tricky because interest are initially high and taperring to low nearing the end of the tenure of the loan, right? so let's just say it's a 50/50 since by the time you finish the loan, it's like borrow rm720k, pay rm1.44mil. and so, again assuming the property does not appreciate in price and NEITHER does the property experience any drop in price (and for discussion's sake, please leave out the inflation factor for this illustration).
and the unit is rented out for say rm2.5k per month. now, the owner might be paying the additional rm500 to the bank and rm500 for maintenance. and so the big question is, is the owner losing money? is the owner at a disadvantage because he has got no positive cashflow?
i like to think that he is still making money albeit less. think of it differently, every month, he is forking out rm1k to foot a rm3.5k bill. in which, out of the rm3.5k bill, rm1.5k is his actual fixed gain (payment for principal). over the entire tenure period of the loan and when he succeed in paying off the loan, he would start to gain rm2k every month then + a fully paid property.
i know some will argue the above case with inflation, misc charges, etc.
but look at the macro aspect of it. and i believe that is why, most if not all speculators and investors are able to hold negative cashflow properties. problems only arises when rentals are lower than payment to banks that can't even cover the interest. but on hindsight, he is still paying less to own the property than a normal buyer on his own without rent.
but the above is just merely my own 2 yen...
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good one

the people who are missing out the above points are those whom we call speculators. they do not have the intention to hold the property for long term (aka rental income), these group of people only want to flip the property (for quick profit) as they are not able / not willing to absorb the -ve cash flow, even if the money goes to knocking off the principle portion of the loan.

however no doubt, if one buy only +ve cash flow property, his property collection will grow way faster that the person above
property101
post May 6 2011, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(Rain88 @ May 6 2011, 06:59 PM)
You bring a very good point here,  AFFORDABILITY  rclxms.gif

We have to think how to increase our income, work hard/work smart, increase productivity, 2 jobs?  icon_idea.gif  icon_idea.gif
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right, i would rather find ways to increase my income than blaming the government, the developers, the rich, the speculator, my boss who gives me little increment, my colleague whom i hate, the mamak who charged me additional rm0.50 on teh tarik....(and basically everyone else).

when a person is desperate / passionate enough, he will find his way.
i know a young man come from a poor family, his age <25 is still doing his part time degree studies, working on a full time job and still manage to take freelance job. managed to bring his salary at least x2 of his peers (excluding the freelance job), most interestingly, he bought 2 properties already. for him, the properties are still affordable
i know some of you will point out this person as an exceptional case, but i wonder what makes him an exceptional? hmm.gif
property101
post May 7 2011, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(Oink @ May 7 2011, 12:26 AM)
Sound very much like the old low cost housing scheme. Surprisingly, those low cost homes (16m x 50m) are going at RM 150K around kajang area now.
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sungai buloh will be the place to build the affordable houses icon_idea.gif
property101
post May 9 2011, 01:21 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ May 9 2011, 01:09 PM)
Glad that more and more people voicing out !!!

It just shows how serious the problem is now smile.gif
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the people who voice out i reckon is mainly in their late 20s and above as their expectation for property price is before the boom, they probably form the expectation of property price in >5 years ago.
youngster would just accept the the situation as reality and go ahead with the purchase. they either buy (without complain) or just dont buy (accepting the fact that property price is indeed high)
property101
post May 11 2011, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ May 11 2011, 11:44 AM)
Ya, and lot of hidden agenda, fee, manipulation, currency trick, fraud etc.  (same as UT, the unit holders always in the losing end, only the top management make big $)

I prefer to invest my own prop..eg shops etc
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have not tried REIT, but i couldnt agree more on UT
property101
post May 12 2011, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ May 12 2011, 10:04 AM)
loan - RM220k
DP - RM 0
tenure - 30 yrs
int. - 4.5%
monthly payment = RM1115
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add on to this,
assuming wife and husband are working, each person pays rm558, which is perfectly fine

property101
post May 12 2011, 12:30 PM

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cannot la bro, where should our friend who bought his property at age 22 sits tongue.gif
property101
post May 12 2011, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ May 12 2011, 04:54 PM)
QUOTE
他指出,地产商要在巴生谷兴建22万令吉以下的房屋是不可能的事情,因为巴生谷就住有我国三分之一的人口,其地产价格的升幅也排名全国最高。唯有柔佛、威省和马六甲还有可能兴建这个价格的房屋。


google translate:
QUOTE
He pointed out that developers in the Klang Valley to 22 million ringgit following the construction of houses is impossible, because the Klang Valley to have our third of the population live, the real estate price increases also ranked highest in the country. Only Johor, Malacca, Gateway province and also the price of houses may be built.


My First Home Scheme will not be useful for properties in klang valley then? or the government is expecting people in klang valley only buy lower cost apartment with the scheme? hmm.gif
i mean the majority of people that are facing the problem are in klang valley and penang, if the scheme is not workable in klang valley and penang, whats the whole point?
property101
post May 20 2011, 10:15 AM

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yesterday our deputy prime minister muhyiddin said do not just wait for government to provide aid in the rising property market. he said it is a global problem. he advised people to budget the spending wisely and find way to increase one's income.

(sorry, no source to be quoted, saw it in tv news)
property101
post May 22 2011, 03:32 PM

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has any investors here consider pulling out cash from (fully / partially paid) properties to stock precious metal, such as silver?

This post has been edited by property101: May 22 2011, 03:32 PM
property101
post May 22 2011, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 22 2011, 06:23 PM)
I've heard from a banker that after the 70% LVT, many investor jump ship from goreng props to goreng shop lot  biggrin.gif
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for most seasoned investor, commercial is always better than residential. if one has the ability play the commercial game, generally he will not want to play residential game
property101
post May 25 2011, 12:53 PM

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at this time (prior to GE), the G is talking about cutting subsidy and hinting higher inflation would take place, it shows how desperate G is unable to bear the cost of subsidy.

obviously there would be even less sweets after GE, i wonder what would happen then
property101
post May 30 2011, 07:11 PM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ May 30 2011, 06:57 PM)
Inflation starts to bite... I wonder when the petrol price will follow suit.. hmm.gif
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in 6 months? hmm.gif
property101
post Jun 2 2011, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Jun 2 2011, 10:55 AM)
if prop price dropped, many sectors will suffer (includiing your job), but we can buy prop at lower prices.
If continue up, flipper and developers will win but mid income ppl will suffered. (can not afford and continue to rent or live with parent)

which scenerio do you prefer?
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when property price drop, for the people who are waiting for it to drop will have following but not limited to the following:
1. economy so bad that the person is out of job, afraid of the uncertainty, clinging so badly to his cash and didnt buy eventually until the economy become good again and property price go up again.
2. wait for property price drop further, because if i buy now and it continue to drop, will rugi...wait and wait and wait...

developer is running a business, the purpose of business is to make money (duh?!). flippers are also treating their flipping game as a business. they are solely responsible for their business risk. whether they get into trouble or become freaking rich, the consequence belong to them and only them.

mid income people always lose, always be the most suffering. the rich and government are both sucking them together. in case anyone has not recognize that, yes, it is a fact. mid income people choose to stay in a comfort environment, the consequence is always not enough money and time.

rich people are always making more and more money, where do u think the money come from? answer, middle class

This post has been edited by property101: Jun 2 2011, 11:54 AM
property101
post Jun 2 2011, 07:34 PM

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i see some people who were bullish about property market have given in and bought one?

This post has been edited by property101: Jun 2 2011, 07:44 PM
property101
post Jun 2 2011, 07:58 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 2 2011, 07:47 PM)
三是使别人愿意把钱送进自己的口袋。
这人成功的叫老千。
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rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

but wait....gf / wife fall into this group also?
property101
post Jun 3 2011, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jun 3 2011, 02:56 PM)
imo 2013 la  grumble.gif unless those highly experience peak gloomers can give other reasons
all their previous reasons has expired  bruce.gif  & price of properties DID NOT DROP
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the good news is everything will revert back to the mean
the bad news is everything will revert back to the mean

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