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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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sulifeisgreat
post Jun 2 2011, 05:01 PM

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for those who hav step into prop. soon u will learn abt greed when comparing agst ur miniscule interest rate savings in fd. then join me at the dark side & become speculator brows.gif

also, we live in a realistic world. its better to use the time & generate idea on how to tackle the issue on hand nod.gif
rather than daydream for a bygone era

since lucerne still single, u may not hav gone thru 1997 asia crisis, pick any topic u like eg 8.3
for those who so like a recession, refer 1.1 on unemployment doh.gif
http://www.treasury.gov.my/index.php?optio...mid=174&lang=en

as an example, select public growth fund & tick since commencement till end-date. learn compounding & a bit of timing
http://www.publicmutual.com.my/application...formancenw.aspx

there r lots of graph here, most its pointing upwards. it maybe outdated but its a true fact price r up & not involve hope
http://ynhb.listedcompany.com/misc/ar/YNH_...JPmorgan%29.pdf

QUOTE(lucerne @ Jun 2 2011, 03:25 PM)
i am neither 1 or 2 coz i m still single mah, haha
since i m a man so risk to become a loser (lao gong= husband), so dun marry is better??
i hope i am a gal, got chance to become the ultimate winner..
*
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 3 2011, 12:38 PM

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r we in an early stage, middle stage or latter stage of bubble? only time will tell. those who bet on it & win will get the rewards. those who sit at sideline will hav to battle with inflation

From 2003 to early 2008, the world stood witness to the most striking commodity price boom of the past century. The price of oil, metals, foodstuffs, grains, and other commodities rose sharply, over a sustained period. Not too differently from earlier commodity booms, this one too was associated with strong global growth, but was exceptional in its duration
http://blog.securities.com/2011/05/current...ture-prospects/

which political party want to risk losing election by increasing Federal Funds Rate, anyone recall 1985 recession?
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/long-term-...-rate-1513.html

What Caused the Great Depression of 1929? thanks to the Fed, there was just not enough money in circulation to get the economy going again. Instead of pumping money into the economy, and increasing the money supply, the Fed allowed the money supply to fall 30%.
http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdomesti..._Depression.htm

all signs point to higher prices. all those companies will pass the cost over to the consumers. the consumers will jus hav to tighten their belt or form their own co. since we're in an economic cycle, the date to watch is yr 2013 coz the next United States presidential election is to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. also the effect won't be felt immediately, it takes time for horse trading laugh.gif

for bolehland, anyone recall wat happen during previous pm era when he take drastic action to increase petrol price & then the elections came. tis time, wat u guys/ gals think wil happen? repeat the same step or to increase after ge smile.gif




sulifeisgreat
post Jun 3 2011, 02:56 PM

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imo 2013 la grumble.gif unless those highly experience peak gloomers can give other reasons
all their previous reasons has expired bruce.gif & price of properties DID NOT DROP
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 3 2011, 03:19 PM

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hmm... u can read back the old pages by 'onemorething' & supporters
or which reason has not expired?

QUOTE(TheDoer @ Jun 3 2011, 03:14 PM)
Which reasons that we gave that has expired?
*
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 3 2011, 03:41 PM

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the bubble wil pop eventualy, but the time has not cum & neither has the signals
those new working class wil hav to work even harder to own props
the slowdown of economy wil happen with higher interest rate

most of the old folks hav cash on standby in bank savings
they'll bailout their kids & relatives
most auction listing r mostly low cost flat or unheard of areas

QUOTE(TheDoer @ Jun 3 2011, 03:25 PM)
You are generalizing and making an assumption.  Bad thing to do as a wise investor.

Myself, the issues I raised, have not come to pass yet.  Which is that the saturation of the number of real home owners (the real source of money), will cause a slowdown and adjustment of the market.

I'm saying, if you keep on blowing, the balloon will pop.  You are saying it hasn't, so it will never.
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sulifeisgreat
post Jun 3 2011, 10:20 PM

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if u had bought instead of whining during version1. u can even be a flipper now & sell for profit doh.gif
however u prefer Greater Fool theory & upset coz suckers make monies from their properties tongue.gif
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 4 2011, 10:19 AM

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I say we r in stage 3
coz the federal reserve r stil cautious

obviously some of u take delight & veli hapi when other central bankers increase their int rate eg.bolehland, kangarooland & etc
however, their dreams of properties price dropping did not cum true, hahaha

furthermore, the majority of forumers r not in euphoria mode ( over optimism and over confidence )
we can see so much complains abt price of everything increase except their salary

& who is the azzhole who says 'some might even say maresia is so special that such cycles don't apply!' which forumer was it?
also when reach stage 6. tis topic can still go on
u need to learn & teach ur cucu some skills nod.gif
at tat time, we see which area more resilient & did our bankers learn anything from 1997 asia crisis with their lending standard/ npl doh.gif

if reach stage 7, its time to buy wink.gif
u wil know coz, u had been thru the 2008 crisis & knew where u made the mistake & miss the opportunity
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 4 2011, 10:35 AM

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its all about demand & supply
since many r old timers, they dun wan sell their prime location prop
so those buyers up the price, but still few sellers
no choice lo, buy the newer prop

if u wan to know wat is euphoria ie over optimism and over confidence
ask ur parents abt 1991-1995 klse. ask them, were there any non blue chip share price above RM50 or 100 nod.gif
ths world is never fair, but at least u got something to giv ur cucu coz u r not renting
if u had bought more prop, u can alwiz help them out by renting to those new graduates or students brows.gif

unless u think bolehland fdi is fantastic & the whole world investing here, then might as well buy the super high end & target those pasar shakehead.gif
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 4 2011, 11:47 AM

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yes & wat we can see once we take the time to observe its much faster than waiting for the lagging official reports
the poor wil alwiz remain poor, the rich wil alwiz set the bar higher while the poor need to catch up
everytime the poor gets near to their target, price suddenly increase & they need to catch up again to the target
u can ask ur nenek, last time in their era, can they really buy wat they want or they need to make sacrifice

QUOTE(lucerne @ Jun 4 2011, 10:37 AM)
agreed most are investors, and most of them jsut want to headge against inflation (for long term) or want to make some passive incomes.  Asian esp Chinese will always consider/calculate carefully their affordabilities and most do not stretch too far. Those over leverage (minority) will force to sell thier holding (they may not lose $ coz they made enough $ last few years, can cover their loss). These firesales will benefit those investors i mentioned earlier.  (majority) , and price will stabilized after sometimes.
*
abt stock market, here not the right place for detail discussion tongue.gif
economy, investment & finance is difficult to understand even though they r interelated
if not financial savvy, stick to etf/ unit trust. if savvy, go for individual shares

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=G13.SI&t=2y
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=S51.SI&t=2y
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=S59.SI&t=2y
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=U96.SI&t=2y
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=F99.SI&t=2y


sulifeisgreat
post Jun 6 2011, 04:54 PM

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we r near to stagflation but economies of world still growing & corporate earnings still up

federal reserve trying not to repeat mistake of previous action
1929 federal reserve restricted money supply = recession
1980s fed res increase int rate to kill inflation = recession
2008 fed res reduce int rate, inc money supply but inc inflation = u r living the moment & can tell ur cucu the outcome thumbup.gif

once economies of world stop growing & corporate earnings start falling, then its time for the bubble to MELETUP rclxms.gif

http://economics.about.com/od/useconomichi...stagflation.htm
http://www.themarketoracle.biz/Article4075.html
http://blackswaninsights.blogspot.com/2010...-for-1970s.html
http://www.moneycafe.com/library/primeratehistory.htm

QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 6 2011, 04:33 PM)
is that simply.. just bought a house got a wife... I doubt.

With a bit financial intellegent... prop rally due to speculator... US is printing USD like no tmrw...created such bubble to mankind... stop print mean market crash.. no $ to use, continue print mean hyperinflation, $ become toilet paper. Oil could reach $150 above.. wat happen next... crisis loh  sweat.gif  print or no print end up same result.....
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This post has been edited by sulifeisgreat: Jun 6 2011, 04:55 PM
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 6 2011, 08:25 PM

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wah, u better cut down on ur tom clancy novels shakehead.gif
anyway, we r living in interesting times blink.gif
some take advantage, some dun, while some just watch it passes by shocking.gif

assuming ur ww3 teori is correct
where would u wanna place ur real hard cash savings? developing or developed nations brows.gif
I bet u choose north korea biggrin.gif

QUOTE(lucerne @ Jun 6 2011, 05:40 PM)
the economy today is credit like economy. (borrow and spend)
developing countries (3rd world) to ensure employment, push up productions, and then lend $ to developed countries and wish them to spend/ use as many finished goods they manufactured. the 3rd world will continue to exploit their natural resources, commodities to create enough $ to lend to the developed nations.  the music will go on until no more resources/commodities to continue the cycle..

when 3rd world dried up and no more resources/$ to lend, developed nations will stop consuming, unemployment in 3rd world will increased. riot begin and war started. developed nations will then rule again. so it is better than old days where 1st world conquer/colonize the 3rd world and steal their resources and slaved their ppl.  They use a new way to slave the 3rd world.  (north korea is smarter they build nuclear weapons not commodities)


Added on June 6, 2011, 5:45 pm

if he has the holding power, $ etc, he has no rush to sell to u now.
he can renovate and then rent at a better rental.  (maybe he has now learnt how to choose the right tenants from the past mistakes)

so for u, either accept the price or find another unit/area
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sulifeisgreat
post Jun 6 2011, 10:28 PM

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there r 3 camps & u wil hav to make a stand & choose either one. the profit, loss or nothingness belongs to u & ur destiny tongue.gif
BBB mode drool.gif
sell, take profit & await crash brows.gif
wait & see, built up huge cash reserve whilst inflation munching their cash at same time laugh.gif

1 Sep 2010 Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok to pay 1.29 billion Hong Kong dollars ($165 million) at the government’s land auction Tuesday for a site in one of the city’s higher-end locales.
http://www.superbuy.com.sg/?tag=li-ka-shing

May 09, 2011 Tycoon Li Ka-Shing's Cheung Kong Group is believed to have won a bid to buy the three TMW Asia Property Fund's shopping complexes put up for sale in Malaysia
http://www.iproperty.com.my/news/3571/HK-g...s-bid-for-malls

if u play the economic cycle theory of crash every 10yr
yr1, the probability to make $$$ is 9/10
yr2, the probability to make $$ is 8/10
& so on cool2.gif
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 10 2011, 03:53 PM

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teori & practice is 2 different things. otherwise all who follow buffet talk style is now in forbes list laugh.gif
if u look for negative pessimistic data, u wil find it & act accordingly to it nod.gif & vice versa
I need to buy more props, those extra 4 mill rakyat need places to stay by 2020 brows.gif

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...mpetitive-city/

Initiatives planned for Kuala Lumpur under the Economic Transformation Programme to make the city among the top 20 most economically dynamic and liveable by 2020 include a new MRT system to enhance public transportation.

Other initiatives include rehabilitation of the city’s polluted rivers, more green space, a high-speed rail link to Singapore, improved pedestrian linkages, and a more vibrant and seamless shopping belt.

It is hoped that the better conditions will help attract top talent to live in the city, whose population is expected to soar to 10 million in 2020 from the present six million.
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 10 2011, 04:43 PM

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tat means PwC print crap report of 6m rakyat, mus spam their mailbox flex.gif
http://www.pwc.com/my/en/aboutus/contact.jhtml

& why hk star cum invest in bolehland? no one told them ekonomi armageddon is cuming tongue.gif
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...1347&sec=nation
JIMMY Hung, a son of kungfu master Sammo Hung, plans to open a restaurant in Penang, reported China Press.

The artiste visited the island recently to look for a good location for his business investment.

It is learnt the restaurant would be set up in Gurney Drive or Queensbay.

Penang exco Law Choo Kiang said Hung planned to visit the island again in September, together with artistes Van Ness Wu and Nicky Lee

kochin, in terms of props, sj, pj, kl (target market is students)

QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 10 2011, 04:28 PM)
kl got 6 mil population meh???

and sulifeisgreat, never did spot your portfolio in any of the thread.
mind sharing where you are vested?
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This post has been edited by sulifeisgreat: Jun 10 2011, 04:45 PM
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 14 2011, 10:55 AM

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then how come it did not happen in tat order during yr2008 crisis. dreams & fats r 2 diff things nod.gif
wat abt yr1997, was the TEORI collapse in tat order? hmm.gif
imo it should be, int rate, share mkt, job mkt, car market, prop market
with the west in bad shape, wil they inc their int rate by nex year & kill off the economy when not even recover yet? shakehead.gif

On a cumulative basis, the ETP has to date recorded RM170.28bil in investment; RM220.15bil in GNI and 362,396 new jobs. This is the largest ever in history in such a short period of time
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=...1&if_height=665

Country Comparison : Current account balanc
no. 13 Malaysia $ 34,140,000,000 year 2010 est.
no. 191 United States $ -561,000,000,000 year 2010 est.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2187rank.html

QUOTE(New Klang @ Jun 14 2011, 09:28 AM)
The order of collapse. Job market, Stock market, unit trust, car market, property market.
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sulifeisgreat
post Jun 14 2011, 11:22 AM

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huh? u doubt the CIA factbook too? when there is a lot of money, price of everything goes up, except salary for workers.
the salary wil increase VERY MUCH LATER, after all those at the top is satisfied & full, then only open pocket give worker

QUOTE(CKHong @ Jun 14 2011, 11:09 AM)
Right before election, everything is +ve  smile.gif
i doubt it..
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sulifeisgreat
post Jun 14 2011, 01:48 PM

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He said: 'We are seeing an unprecedented stampede by buyers from the Far East - especially mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia - snapping up top end apartments in and around Docklands.

'Traditionally, Chinese parents might buy flats for children studying at university here.

'Now, they are building up property portfolios and helping keep the market afloat.

Assistant director Paul Rees said: 'If people buy properties at astronomical prices at the top end of the market, that has a ripple effect all the way down the housing ladder with people at the bottom end squeezed out of the market entirely.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-20...l#ixzz1PE6aUDHU

if the poor r buying, of coz sub-prime la! the rich got holding power & can wait til salary workers catch up to prop price yawn.gif in d meantime, the salary workers wil jus hav to rent if they wanna work near the city itself
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 14 2011, 02:49 PM

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jus sitting there & wishing/hoping achieves nothing. it takes hard work, guts & guesstimate to line ur ducks together. when the "right place, right time" happens, it is yours drool.gif the moolah & all

whether u disagree with wat the govt is doing, do u hear of anyone complain they r jobless? hav u been thru the fear in ur own country during the 1997 financial crisis? fear of the future & seeing wat happen to the chinese in indonesia?

numbers does look impressive & the prices of everything going up means it is working. each & everyone (ostrich included) of us learnt the lesson from 1997 crisis, the key is to get ready & act once the hot money starts leaving nod.gif

QUOTE(pockaroo @ Jun 14 2011, 02:06 PM)
The numbers does look very impressive.  However I don't think it was because Malaysia is doing such a fantastic job attracting FDI.  When the crash in 2007/2008 happened, every developed economic is printing money like mad to shore up their economies and banking systems.  Most of the excess liquidity or hot money has not stayed in the US, UK or EU, instead it all rushed out everywhere in the world chasing returns on capital.  From commodities, currencies to assets in emerging markets - stock markets, property markets, etc.  China/BRIC and Southeast Asia, Latin America even South Africa are beneficiaries.  The flip side to these is that they are also victims of price/asset inflation when the hot money rolls into town.

So while Malaysia is patting themselves on their backs saying good job.  All emerging markets also have reasonably if not equally impressive FDI.  I am not saying they are doing a bad job - but more because they are in the "right place, right time" rather.
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thanx for explaining it in a detail manner for the layperson in lyn to understand. in a bubble, most things can be swept away. whether it wil be a soft or hard landing for tis bubble, no one knows. I'll line my ducks together & u can line yours. we live in interesting times & I foresee we wil hav a good bed time story to tell our cucu brows.gif hav fun!

QUOTE(GangHo @ Jun 14 2011, 02:05 PM)
I'll be very afraid if we rely too much on property and construction. If "Perfect Storm" were to come as predicted, all these will be swept away.

It is correct to predict that the economy would be collapsing in the order of Rate-->Share-->Job-->Car-->Prop

When the government senses any incoming trouble, the first thing they do is to control the rate through monetary policy and thus the Rate.

When the problem is beyond control, it will strike panic at the share market. Due to the volatile behaviour of the share market, the share holder is afraid that their share price will drop very quickly and therefore they quickly sell it all the shares they have. For the small share holder, it is easy for them to let go because it is not a huge investment. Note that if any company wants to sell any share, it takes only one day for the transaction to be perfected.

When there share price is going down, nobody would want to plan for the development or investment. Upstream companies would not announce any new project or investment and therefore it affects the down stream companies. Therefore they need to start firing people because production is reduced like wise the service is not needed. Note that it takes one month to three months to sack/fire a person.

When people is being sacked/fired, their biggest commitment is usually car/prop. Once they default payment, the bank would start to issue notice of default and threaten to take back the car. This process would normally takes another minimum 2 months for it to happen. When given choice, people would want to retain their property rather than the car because there are other means of transportations when there is larger penalty if you default in a mortgage payment.

Lastly people let go of their house/property. If the situation is very bad, lots of people would be selling their house in the same time. When the market is flooded with auctions houses and cheaper property prices, it is not easy to get buyer and cash is the king. People would take their time to make decision because they are spoiled with lots of offers. And since property is always deem to be a valuable investment of all time, there would always be people that are willing to buy and thus support the price. Nevertheless, it really takes time for any one deal to be perfected at the tough time.

All in all, I believe that it is logical and correct to predict that the market should be collapsing in the manner as stated above. However, finance and economy is not that straight forward and simple as we want it to be. Not even the smartest in the world is able to relieve the richest country out of the trap of the financial crisis.
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sulifeisgreat
post Jun 17 2011, 12:28 PM

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WOW! means I am in the minority that make $$$ from props brows.gif
dunno abt those majorities & how they invested like fuk till lose duit shakehead.gif
if those majority had done BASIC homework ie. prop developer must hav good track record & its reputable nod.gif

even abandon but if location is goodie, the prj wil be back on track (ie. the condo nex to metropolitan college ss15)
u pay peanuts, get monkeys, u pay more.. u know la & the basic rule is location, location & location tongue.gif
of coz, some prices is jus ridiculous (eg. lafite apartment in ss17) PLS USE COMMON SENSE doh.gif



sulifeisgreat
post Jun 17 2011, 03:06 PM

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hmm, sounds like bollocks, but can't argue tat a gain is a gain without taking into ac of inflation tongue.gif
with the flood of liquidity worldwide, int rate for fd wil be at peanut level for quite some time
but if u guys like it as a SAFE vehicle, its ur choice & we live in a democratic country laugh.gif
http://financialindependent.blogspot.com/2...and-saving.html

buying usa stocks, I rent it out during down market via 'cover call' & collect premiums
buying props, I rent it out to those students or new working rakyat & collect rents
let me recheck the forbes list & see who kept the most savings in fd, suspek its warren buffet/ li ka shing hmm.gif
http://stockpickr.com/pro/portfolio/warren-buffett//

keeping in fd not my cup of tea, but strictly speaking, a gain is a gain & much better than keep in milo tin/ under pillow
look at the savings rate, the only time it goes up > 10% is during crisis & its sideways MOST OF THE TIME shakehead.gif
The UK bank rate from the 17th Century until December 2008 http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/economy
if dunno how calculate, YES! PLS DO NOT BUY PROPS! laugh.gif keep in savings & grow until can buy props in ONE LUMP SUM




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