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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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lucerne
post May 6 2011, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ May 6 2011, 02:13 PM)
we actually now have:

very slow economy --> unaffordable housing (with the protected NEP)
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it is unaffordable now coz many speculators /investors /foreigners expect msia economy will transform to faster growth economy (after ETP/NEM ) , that is why masia prop suddenly increased after ETP , NEM annoucement. same like Vietnam, China transformation...(from a closed econ to open econ). the prop price shot up and many cant afford.

So if ETP succeeded, msia prop will shot up further (not 30-50%, but 2x, 3x, 4x etc like Shanghai). if ETP failed, we will back to old days (price dropped to 2-3 years ago), what is your bet??
lucerne
post May 6 2011, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ May 6 2011, 02:56 PM)
NEP suppose for the poor, valid for only 10yrs expire in the 80' now extended till 2011, covers the rich and famous too. Wat a policy.  notworthy.gif

Not enough, here you too got NAP to protect Potong. For those car lovers prefer to rent house and buy new cars, good luck. Just check MAA website for the taxes that you had paid and going to pay.

http://www.maa.org.my/info_duty.htm
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China, Vietnam do not have NEP, NAP alike policy, they all compete on merit. my question is do we want to open up the econ? open econ will result in more expensive housing/service etc.. i think many ppl dont like open econ??

NEP is something like robin hood, rob the rich (oppurtunities etc) subsidy the poor (ppl or company). so everyone somehow are equally poor now. (unless u go work/invest oversea withno such policy )
So the majority poor are happy now and continue to support the current govt. (the minority of rich are not happy and vote opposition)

NAP/NEP is to help cronies to become richer.
lucerne
post May 6 2011, 03:26 PM

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QUOTE(wwwcomment @ May 6 2011, 03:04 PM)
really?
i tot it is because of cheap loan.
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cheap loan is there many years ago...
of coz this is also part of the reason for speculation..
lucerne
post May 6 2011, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ May 6 2011, 03:16 PM)
Think should rephrase the sentence. These policies complete opp of robin hood story.

NEP/NAP rob the poor and middle class, use the money subsidizing the rich and famous.

Many are unaware, even those enjoying bit of NEP, not thinking deep enough how much they subsidizing the cronies. 

End of the day, not this generation going to suffer. It is the next and next next generations that are going to taste the stupid 'medicine' prescribe by the father of all corrupt aka Dr Tun.
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ok ok, NEP/NAP rob everyone on the street..including rich chinese, indian etc, rob their biz opportunities to able compete globally, prevent the smart ppl to become smarter, causing brain drain etc . only to benefit the cronies..
lucerne
post May 6 2011, 06:27 PM

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QUOTE(super911 @ May 6 2011, 06:15 PM)
You have your point valid. End of the day, it's about our holding power. Just like those who invest in shoplots nowadays mostly are in -ve cashflow. The big question will be how much and how long you can tahan the -ve cashflow smile.gif
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the extra $ to fork out is peanut for investors/speculators so long they have other regular income to pay for it (eg other rentals, biz income, salary, saving etc). if installment for a shop is 6k and rented at 4-5k. they oni need to pay extra 1-2k, which is peanut for taukeh and big earners.
lucerne
post May 6 2011, 07:09 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ May 6 2011, 06:47 PM)
i think you missed the point here.

pay has been stagnant, property prices skyrocketing, that's why the issue is AFFORDABILITY.
and we are not having fast economy growth over the past 10 years, but property prices just shot up over the past 2 years.


Added on May 6, 2011, 6:51 pm
yes our econ growth has been slow over the past 10 years but many investors/speculators expect faster growth in the next 5-10 years due to ETP, NEM etc. maybe they can smell the golden opportunities which resulting higher price last 2 years. as i said, they are betting for msia econ. if u believed the econ will fly then u expect the prop will increase further. if not, u can buy prop priced at 2-3 years ago. some ppl +ve and some -ve on msia 5-10 yrs econ growth. u have to make the right bet. prop price is always ahead of the econ, they already factored in all the goodwills. same like share market. we need to guess future earning of a co based on their future/current investments, projects on hand/future, new annoucements etc
lucerne
post May 10 2011, 03:17 PM

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HK's Li Ka Shing is buying Msia's shopping malls..

吉隆坡讯)香港富豪李嘉诚所控制的长江实业集团,据知已标得德国TMW亚洲房地产基金待售的三个马来西亚商场项目。
  据悉,长江实业集团通过ARA联营关系而共同管理马国第一信托(AMFirst),竞购霹雳州怡保百利广场、雪兰莪州巴生百利广场及森美兰州芙蓉百利广场)。这三个商场项目的要价约12.8亿港元(5亿令吉),《商业时报》获悉,有关集团可能不需支付之前设定的5亿令吉要价,不过,应该比4亿令吉高。


lucerne
post May 11 2011, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ May 11 2011, 11:13 AM)
Ya agree. REIT is likely unit trust or privatization, idea, concept & purpose are good, but implementation & real execution cannot work onelah (particulary in Bolehland)
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Ya, and lot of hidden agenda, fee, manipulation, currency trick, fraud etc. (same as UT, the unit holders always in the losing end, only the top management make big $)

I prefer to invest my own prop..eg shops etc
lucerne
post May 12 2011, 11:52 AM

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http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...nd-high-prices/

He said, however, he sympathised with Rehda over “indirect taxation” which came in the form of developers having to build public utility infrastructure which added to the cost of residential property.

“We too have lobbied for such infrastructures to be carried by the respective public-listed utility companies because they are business ventures,” he said.


when msia govt short of $$ (due to corruptions, leaks etc), i think more and more developers need to bear the cost of infrastructures eg bridges, flyover, tunnels, new access roads, road widening (eg rawang by gamuda, guocoland etc ), drainages, lanscaping, subsidy the mrt/lrt land for schools, carpark, garden, masjid/surau etc. At the end the extra costs will pass to the new house buyers. So expect the home price go up more. it is just like the new home buyers subsidy the govt to build all the above infrastructures. (Msia boleh!)

The old home buyers will benefited the most as old days the developers do not need to build so many infrastructures (as the traffic is not busy/complicated etc) and they can now enjoyed the rocketed price rise. eg BU in 80s,90s--no brigde, tunnel, flyovers etc. Now the new house price from SHC, Berjaya, Mammoth, MK etc already include all the above facilities..(all developers need to share the costs). The more developments the more infrastructure needed to cater for the needs of resident (old and new). Unless they stop new launchs which is impossible. Expect to see more flyovers, infrastructure in Damansara (but the govt will not going to foot the bills, it is u..)
lucerne
post May 24 2011, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ May 24 2011, 08:34 AM)
. If the ETP is successful, it will further propel the local property market to greater heights than now when the market has finished the moderation cycle.  smile.gif
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i think after mrt blue + circlle line completed, it will drive prop price even higher. it is happenning everywhere in the world. look at the traffic in KL, i think many ppl prefer to live near mrt or take shuttle bus to mrt or park n ride. (like Singapore)
lucerne
post May 25 2011, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ May 25 2011, 11:07 AM)
petrones accounts secret, only availble to pm.
maybe one day, we'll all get to see it.
estimated rm1 trillion during all these years.
it's up to anyone to judge.
next sick man of asia?
call it curse of the black stuff?
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i heard petronas never sell directly to the market , all thru cronies. imagine how much money u made if u r given sales right/middle man commissions to china?? this is all buta $. (so long u support xxxx), that is why the pyramid never fall.
lucerne
post May 26 2011, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 26 2011, 09:43 AM)
another one is major issue...
2012 [the movie]
smile.gif
I hope bolehland stop promoting Potong car..
reduce tax for imported car.. damn.. if without tax.. i can get decent car with nice price.. not so much problem.. rosak sini rosak sana..
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u wait long long, now potong want BN to protect them forever...

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...ralised-market/
lucerne
post Jun 2 2011, 10:55 AM

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QUOTE(wunderbar @ Jun 1 2011, 10:53 PM)
very good and long debate over the property prices.
thanks to all for their contributions, i learned something new smile.gif

Personally, i don't see the property prices going anywhere but up.
Seriously doubt that a PJ house is going to depreciate by 20-30% within a year or 2. A more likely scenario is that the property is going to appreciate by 10% over the next 6 months.
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if prop price dropped, many sectors will suffer (includiing your job), but we can buy prop at lower prices.
If continue up, flipper and developers will win but mid income ppl will suffered. (can not afford and continue to rent or live with parent)

which scenerio do you prefer?
lucerne
post Jun 2 2011, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Jun 2 2011, 11:51 AM)
rich people are always making more and more money, where do u think the money come from? answer, middle class
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precisely!
I would like to share a joke here:
世上有两件事很难:
一是把自己的思想装进别人的脑袋。
二是把别人的钱装进自己的口袋。
前者成功的叫老师。
后者成功的叫老板。
两者都成功了的叫老婆。
两者都做反的是老公。


A brief translation for those inter
ested:

Two things in life that are difficult to achieve:-

1. to plant your idea in someone's head

2. to plant someone's money in your own pocket.



o He who succeeds in the former - we call
teacher; ... Lao Shi

o He who succeeds with the latter - we call boss.
..... Lao Ban

o The one who succeeds in both - we call wife; .... Lao
Por

o The one who fails in both - we call husband.
..... Lao Gong

Cheers...
lucerne
post Jun 2 2011, 03:02 PM

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QUOTE(wunderbar @ Jun 2 2011, 02:10 PM)
Both your scenario's seem to be based on "must either Win OR Lose" mentality.
I hope the middle path can prevail.
In this case, it will allow people to earn and buy what they can afford.
People who have bought properties can still earn a decent ROI.

There is no way to make things back to the way they were (RM0.10 for a bowl of noodles).
Change is inevitable.
Lets just hope that the change will come gradually and not just suddenly show up and slap you in the face (like the 2 scenarios you suggested)
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with today fast changes (due to advance technologies, internet, borderless era, globalization trade?) , the economy cycle will become shorter. so i think the future outcomes will be more drastic compare to those 20,30 years ago. the rich poor gap will become wider. Only the smarter people will survived (not veyr rich though), and the poors will suffered more. so one need to be very careful in their investment and money management. u cant expect the same as 20-30 years ago.

personally i think those people with good financial knowledge will be survived. u need to open up your mindset, think global. sharpen your investment knowledge. like one said dun become katak di bawah tempurung. those can take higher risk (calculated) will be rewarded. (like those tycoon.

share, commodities market become more volatile than before.
business is getting tougher, margin become thiner. (too many poors?)
new biz start failed sooner then previous. old biz cant sustain any longer.
more conmen than old days (try all new tatics to cheat u)
job opp is lesser, jobless rise. (and govt dun bother u)
your bank saving will become worthless. (fixed asset is better?)
prop market become uncertain due to too much speculation (unlike old days, stable and systematically appreciation)
so what to do? if u cant beat them jsut join them la - lets jump into prop and share lah.. see who is smarter.. or die standing..(become poorer)
lucerne
post Jun 2 2011, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jun 2 2011, 02:41 PM)
interesting, so u fall under which category? coz I dun see u posting topics abt no. 1 nor 2  smile.gif 
majority forumers dream of prop price falling, means I did not successfully plant idea into anyone's head  laugh.gif
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i am neither 1 or 2 coz i m still single mah, haha
since i m a man so risk to become a loser (lao gong= husband), so dun marry is better??
i hope i am a gal, got chance to become the ultimate winner..
lucerne
post Jun 2 2011, 10:26 PM

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as i said b4, i dun want my $ become worthless due to inflation, GST etc and it is also reported by EIU today that for next 5 years the inflation will beocme higher not any lower. so the only way for me is to invest in prop. (I dont invest in share coz i dun have time to monitor stock market). it is up to your stretegy to preserve or grow your $. I know my salary will not grow as fast as investments, so i rather to take some calculated risk to invest in good prop. i dun care if the prop will drop or not, i m looking for long term, for retirement.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...inflation-pain/

lucerne
post Jun 2 2011, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 2 2011, 10:41 PM)
when someone or org is come out the data to support the economic/investment still in good sharp.. u must be very careful, this happen too in year 2006-2007 (as well as 1996, before end of 1997) when the market crash in sudden end of 2008, everyone is crying and wanted $$ back guarantee for their hard earn $$. Data is miss leading... Must see the trend movement in bigger picture under globalisation...
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but i think in long term the prop price will climb to a new height again eventually.. this is quite true for developing economy/country..
lucerne
post Jun 3 2011, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ Jun 3 2011, 10:37 AM)
Oh sorry I was referring to after the crash. smile.gif Now property in the US is so attractive even ppl in Malaysia can call it cheap  wink.gif
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depend which area. if big cities then the price is flat eg New York, boston, Washington etc.

http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=215


lucerne
post Jun 4 2011, 10:06 AM

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just advocate prop will drop will u sell your prop now?

i have a fren in sg who sold thier condo in prime clementi area (near mrt) 2 years ago and rent temporary, hoping in 2-3 years time they can buy at lower price now regreted. The prop they sold earlier hv appreciated i think 50%..

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