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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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lucerne
post Jun 4 2011, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jun 4 2011, 10:19 AM)
furthermore, the majority of forumers r not in euphoria mode ( over optimism and over confidence )
we can see so much complains abt price of everything increase except their salary
agreed most are investors, and most of them jsut want to headge against inflation (for long term) or want to make some passive incomes. Asian esp Chinese will always consider/calculate carefully their affordabilities and most do not stretch too far. Those over leverage (minority) will force to sell thier holding (they may not lose $ coz they made enough $ last few years, can cover their loss). These firesales will benefit those investors i mentioned earlier. (majority) , and price will stabilized after sometimes.
lucerne
post Jun 4 2011, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ Jun 4 2011, 10:44 AM)
Your friend shud have invested the profits elsewhere (for eg stock market) to generate more returns.  laugh.gif
but the stock market has been flat for the last 2 years. stock rebound in mid 2009 then after become flat til now.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESTI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

lucerne
post Jun 4 2011, 11:32 PM

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today also attend Michael Tan prop workshop, he also encourage us to sell now. wat do u all think.
lucerne
post Jun 5 2011, 01:38 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Jun 4 2011, 11:45 PM)
did he mention why?
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he said if u had reallised >30% profits within 3 years it is time to sell and go to hunt for another good property (especially for good rental yield). ofcoz if your earlier prop is good rental then is another story...most of the time the rental cant catch up with the cap appreciation so it is better to let go if the yeild is low.
lucerne
post Jun 5 2011, 02:18 PM

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he commented based on past historical msia economy/prop downturn, the next round will eb somewhere 2020, when all the mega project completed. prop correction then after that fly again (eg klcc twin tower, completed in 96,97 then economy crashed in 98, and many more similar examples.. same thing as global eg 08 crashed after burj khalifa etc, us empire tower etc

Msia next few years is ok, becos got many mega projects to support..
lucerne
post Jun 5 2011, 08:55 PM

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sunzi69,
pls work harder now and gain relevant skills in your current mnc. pls do look for job opp in singapore or shanghai. (best is sg coz it is nearer to kl), sg salary is about 3-4 times higher than kl (2.45 exhange, lower tax, lower dollar to dollar living cost and higher saving). if u work 10 years in sg it is like 30years in kl. so u can retire in 10yr or invest in lot of things (prop, share, gold etc). if u work 15 yrs then it is equal to 45 years in kl.
p/s; shanghai salary followed sg and plus fat allowances. hk lagi best... the most important is you have the skills the mnc wants. esp shanghai, hk many mnc prefer msian coz we can speak many languages and our english is much better than the locals. msian also has more exposure in territories sales, production, more hand on skills etc. (some sg, hk never enter into factory b4). The ang moh in usa, europe, regional HQ sure want update /what happening in china and need translation/report from we asian regional office. the above is my own experience to share with u. pls do pm me if u want to know life in sg, shanghai, hk etc. And how to build $ and invest. i gained lots of regional/global exposures during my oversea postings and i know what is good investments.
lucerne
post Jun 6 2011, 11:39 AM

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i recalled someone bring up the Ordos, Inner Mongolia's ghost town.
the below article (sorry oni in Chinese) said Ordos's individual GDP has surpassed HK and become hte richiest city in China due to booming of coal, rare earth metal, LPG, wools etc. I have also read China govt is building a many big projects for gas to liquid, and coal to liquid complexes in Ordos. (expect to run in 2013) p/s: liquid mean petroluem from coal or LPG. China has 1/3 of world coal reserves and china govt plan to convert coal to petrol and not depend too much on oils imports from middle east which future political is not stable. maybe this is why so many building are build now...

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/zg/zg110606_009.shtml

http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2011-06-05/073022589834.shtml

lucerne
post Jun 6 2011, 02:02 PM

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dun complians abt low salary, just increase your productivities, efficiency, skills etc as i mentioned in my earlier posts.
if u hv the skills that mnc wanted, your salary will definitely will be higher (in someyears my salary was paid in sgd when based in kl). today many mnc do not want to come to kl coz there is not enough talents pool here. even though the rental is cheaper here but the employee skills is much more lower compare to hk, sg, shanghai. they can pay u higher salary, comparable to sg if u hv the skills. even i compared within the same mnc, kl worker is not as competent vs sg, hk, sh etc. how many six sigma master black belt in kl? intl marketers, branding expert, designers, ip experts, rd scientists, investment bankers etc. maybe we always like to compare ourselves with the poor efficiency public sector or glc. eg tidak apa attitude, chin chai , agak agak, nanti nanti, semua pun boleh, cakap saja etc. our private sectors is as poor as the public sectors eg medical, bank, insurance, it, oil and gas, chemicals etc. even the courier service here is slower.
lucerne
post Jun 6 2011, 02:57 PM

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in sg, sh, hk, taiwan, korea...many low to mid income ppl eg working class, blue or white collar r ok to live in smaller, older apt, they know that the high end condo, landed prop r for the rich and expatriates. compare to kl, everyone want to live in new condo, landed prop (not old single storey but new DSL or SD, near city etc..some even want to buy new prop just after graduate. they feel shame if they live in old apartments. they are so many affordable old apartment out there but mostly rented to foreigners, blue collars etc. locals always think that they are higher status adn refuse to stay with the so called "low class ppl". look at sg, more than 80% citizen are living in HDB flat. they dun feel shame to stay together with blue collars workers, low income earners etc. wat's wrong with young msian??
lucerne
post Jun 6 2011, 03:39 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 6 2011, 03:19 PM)
shakehead.gif i not agreed...just do a simple survey... go to any condo/apartment/flat...u will see proton, kancil, bmw, merdez, toyota camry, altis, vios, Honda accord, cevic, city, lori, van.. even bus in some area hehe ... variety of ppl staying in one block...

I think if got also because of the security concern.
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this old apt is my generation lah (i m not young),, many r ok to live in old condo til now..
of coz some of them hv upgraded to DSL, SD new condo but they have enough saving etc.
but if u cant afford (esp young graduate) why must buy a new condo, landed prop etc???
There are many below 200k older apt in KL (some r below 50k!) but this new generation r not interested at all. compare to my sh colleagues, many of them are buying/ living in old apt....


Added on June 6, 2011, 3:40 pm
QUOTE(wunderbar @ Jun 6 2011, 03:13 PM)
Very true. it's a malaysian thing.

Over here you have low-cost, medium cost, apartments, condominiums, service apartments, luxury condominiums.
It's no wonder why people here are picky, cause they have so many choices smile.gif
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same to sh, korea, taiwan but they are so picky as msian..

This post has been edited by lucerne: Jun 6 2011, 03:40 PM
lucerne
post Jun 6 2011, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Jun 6 2011, 03:13 PM)
same point.. b4 asking whats wrong with young msian... tell those greedy seller STOP jacking up the price of the property..  make the price nearer to the market valuation..
so that we young msians able to get the old old condo that u mention  smile.gif
we don't go for low cost apartment/flat mainly bcos of bad maintenance and got higher % pencuri go in and steal all our belongings..
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typical youngster mentality...
as i said they are many affordable old apt out there in KL, despite of many new expensive condo next to it. we can hv 1 mil condo and 50k old apt next to each other. but young ppl always conned by the advertisements, nice brochure, tv, movies and want to live like yuppies.


Added on June 6, 2011, 3:51 pmcorrection: same to sh, korea, taiwan but they are NOT picky as msian

This post has been edited by lucerne: Jun 6 2011, 03:51 PM
lucerne
post Jun 6 2011, 04:18 PM

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if all young graduate are not picky and opt for old apr/condo (dirty as claimed by some) , demand of new condo/taman taman will drop and the developers will not build so many expensive prop, then they will be less speculation and kl housing will be more matured. so the speculation is partly cause by the strong demand of youngsters. same in china, hte housing is so strong coz the young gals always want thier partner to own a house b4 marry to him. so the gorenger knew this and prepare to goreng even more.
lucerne
post Jun 6 2011, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(azamreeves @ Jun 6 2011, 04:10 PM)
in Singapore they called it HDB flat but actually the size and the quality similar to condo in Malaysia

and it is cheap too (compared to a private flat)

we can't compare here and Singapore, a lot of difference

They set different priority
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HDB is smilar to low cost flat in msia, also similar to OLD apt/condo in Msia which is more affordable to most msian..
But Sg did not feel shy if a young, just married couple live in HDB, in fact many young couple Q-ing up HDB b4 marry.

compare to Msia, if govt will build new low cost flat/apt, young couple will not go for it. if they qualify for a low cost flat , ofcoz they will still buy it but rent it out to Indon..they still prefer to buy new condo, landed prop etc. this is the different..

there is no private flat in sg- either HDB or condo
HDB - no surrounding wall/gate, no guard, no facilities
condo - with gate, guard, facilities
in between they call it executive apartment (still a HDB but better quality)


lucerne
post Jun 6 2011, 04:51 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 6 2011, 04:33 PM)
is that simply.. just bought a house got a wife... I doubt.

With a bit financial intellegent... prop rally due to speculator... US is printing USD like no tmrw...created such bubble to mankind... stop print mean market crash.. no $ to use, continue print mean hyperinflation, $ become toilet paper. Oil could reach $150 above.. wat happen next... crisis loh  sweat.gif  print or no print end up same result.....
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to own a house is the pre requisite to get a wife/gf in china but not neccesary sure get a wife lah..

if china youngters start to rent (even after married) , then the demand will drop and prop price will drop too.

same if msia youngster not so picky and buy old apt/condo, demand will drop too. of coz demand of old apt will increase (and price will increase slightly) but the supply is so much out there and so the price will not go so crazy. when most msian ok to live in old apt, indon will have to pay higher rent coz the supply is lesser now. understand some old apt with 3 rooms rented at oni for rm200/month. that is why so many illegal indon like to come to msia. (even no work, or part time can still survive easily). p/s; some area is even free rental eg ghost town in kelang, rawang, bkt sentosa, bkt berugi, tasek puteri etc. if the demand of old apt picked up. there will lesser auctions prop in that area.
lucerne
post Jun 6 2011, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Jun 6 2011, 04:37 PM)
Yeah, so given the 2 factors (referring to the same prop).

1.) Youngesters want to buy a comfortable home.
2.) Rich uncle, aunty want to invest to make lots of $$$$.

Which do you think should cease?

The irony is, those who invest, will hold on to those new props, keep it until it's "Old enough" then sell it to the innocent young ones. What's the rationality behind this??

Let me tell you guys straight off hand, there's this old prop that I had been eyeing, which look like crap. The only reason it was so appealing, was because of the location which was unique to my family.

The owner stayed firmed and asked for 30-50K above market rate (advised by the realtor). (Even though he would have already made a killing with the current market rate)

The house was abandoned by the previous renter whom, raked up a large bill, and destroyed the interrior of the house (eg. broken ceiling).  The mentality of speculators.  Optimistic to the bitter end. Either they win or lose, the buyer is always the loser.
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why bother if ex owner has made lot of profit?? (they do take risks when they bought it some 10yrs ago, it is also their fortune/luck if they can now made profit). just buy if the apt is still afforfable and within your means. if the condition is bad, just go for another unit or next apt/condo. if u do not have enough $ to renovate in one go , just live with it, do it little by little when u hv saved enough. some ppl die die must go renovate like a palace. (poisoned by tv, ad, movie etc)

p/s: at least u r not the one die die must own a new condo type of person. so u can see how much price different/can save btw the old and new?
lucerne
post Jun 6 2011, 05:40 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jun 6 2011, 04:54 PM)
we r near to stagflation but economies of world still growing & corporate earnings still up

federal reserve trying not to repeat mistake of previous action
1929 federal reserve restricted money supply = recession
1980s fed res increase int rate to kill inflation = recession
2008 fed res reduce int rate, inc money supply but inc inflation = u r living the moment & can tell ur cucu the outcome  thumbup.gif

once economies of world stop growing & corporate earnings start falling, then its time for the bubble to MELETUP  rclxms.gif

http://economics.about.com/od/useconomichi...stagflation.htm
http://www.themarketoracle.biz/Article4075.html
http://blackswaninsights.blogspot.com/2010...-for-1970s.html
http://www.moneycafe.com/library/primeratehistory.htm
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the economy today is credit like economy. (borrow and spend)
developing countries (3rd world) to ensure employment, push up productions, and then lend $ to developed countries and wish them to spend/ use as many finished goods they manufactured. the 3rd world will continue to exploit their natural resources, commodities to create enough $ to lend to the developed nations. the music will go on until no more resources/commodities to continue the cycle..

when 3rd world dried up and no more resources/$ to lend, developed nations will stop consuming, unemployment in 3rd world will increased. riot begin and war started. developed nations will then rule again. so it is better than old days where 1st world conquer/colonize the 3rd world and steal their resources and slaved their ppl. They use a new way to slave the 3rd world. (north korea is smarter they build nuclear weapons not commodities)


Added on June 6, 2011, 5:45 pm
QUOTE(TheDoer @ Jun 6 2011, 05:30 PM)
The fact that he already makes money if he sells it now (at market rate) isn't the issue.  The issue is that his greed is preventing him from doing so.

Only someone like me would be tempted to buy it.  And the reason is because of the location significance it has to my family.  I find that house, and that area strategic for me.  Even though not in a prime area.

I'm not thinking about the renovation costs now, I'm asking myself, what greed would make a person raise his prices like this.

The irony is it could've been easily a win-win situation.

Now his got this crappy house on his hands... He tried to rent it out, and his tenant ruined it further. What's he waiting for now? For the house to mellow abit longer?  laugh.gif
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if he has the holding power, $ etc, he has no rush to sell to u now.
he can renovate and then rent at a better rental. (maybe he has now learnt how to choose the right tenants from the past mistakes)

so for u, either accept the price or find another unit/area

This post has been edited by lucerne: Jun 6 2011, 05:45 PM
lucerne
post Jun 7 2011, 09:24 AM

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QUOTE(ChampDog @ Jun 6 2011, 05:47 PM)
Are you saying North Korea doing a right thing then? Interesting...
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dun get me wrong, i didnt said north korea is doing the right thing. i said north korea know how to protect themself from the superpowers.

but lately NK also planning to follow China to build more productions to feed their people/unemployment...not sure if they will play the same music with USA. They is no right or wrong answer here. --"we are living in interesting times" -- the weaks are the prey of the strongs

lucerne
post Jun 7 2011, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Jun 7 2011, 07:41 PM)
Good write up. Old folks too hard to understand, still in wonderland. Tat's for your generation.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJl6brFT-RQ...player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mxgiz6T17RU...player_embedded
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very good videos, thanks for sharing..will pass around to fren.
lucerne
post Jun 9 2011, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(REfreako @ Jun 9 2011, 10:56 AM)
Average salary 2k or whatever that is much lower. Regardless of you are a fresh grad or primary school level.
No need to go n look for good boss, your salary is the reflection of how important you are in the market or to the society. If you are capable and able to grab what the future needs and short of. (THE GOOD BOSS WILL COME TO LOOK FOR YOU AND APPRAISE YOUR SALARY APPROPRIATELY)

If you are a just an average joe or store keeper that carry out routine job then don't complain, the limit of your level is only there either you upgrade yourself or lag behind the race. The world is like that if everybody also high income there will be no rich and poor differences. If that's the case developer sell 100 unit of ideal house that 1000 people with high income fit for the house price tag, who will get it?

Stop being ignorant there are alot of rich people in malaysia, I got friends earning 6 figure a year and that's normal. Our age just early 30.
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agreed, i have many fren who is high income earner. (mostly dealling with international not focus Msia only). as i said, if u hv the skills that mnc wants, they can pay u in Euro, USD, SGD etc standards (coz they need someone in ASIA!!)
lucerne
post Jun 12 2011, 10:35 AM

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when msia living standard like that low cost flat is equal to HDB. the low in mid income live in flat, rich ppl, biz man, expatriates live in high end condo etc. if want to have luxury life, then Msia hv to restructure themself to catch up with 1st world. if still fall in race politics, bumi agendas etc i doubt we can live like 1st world countries. this is all politics and decide rakyat futures.

i really advise the youngs to go to advance countries to work (if hv the chances), make $ and later decide if u still want to return to msia. (depend on msia politic situation). I feel lucky working in advance countries (no family burden etc). i wont be successful if i still work in msia.

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