commodity prices now diving will add pressure to the aussie mkt.

interestingly, this was articulated in a long article in the same website in dec 2010, was posted in this forum:

malaysia was a relatively cheap place to live until recent times, despite subsides on essentials.
it is now "expensive" not because petrol or nasi lemak prices are priced high in an absolute sense, but is the low and stagnant income levels.

in the previous page, someone asked how was income and house prices 30-40 yrs ago compared to now.
if not mistaken, back 30 yrs ago, a new terrace house in PJ cost <100K, fresh honors grads get paid 1.5k.
today, same new house in klang is priced 400-500k, salary 2-2.5k, with exceptions, of course.
the same thing happend to cars, healthcare, etc.

how young people buy homes and cars these days? debt and more debt.
until real income levels rise, more young people will leave for better pay jobs overseas.
until real income levels rise, more debt will pile up - and this is not sustainable.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 13 2011, 12:26 PM

no ler... said bought subsale at 60k. not 30k.
my math ok wan...
the point is... residential houses is not that great as investment except for certain periods.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 13 2011, 08:20 PM

is gomen really trying to stop the speculative buying? or actually encouraging the opposite?
on one hand, impose ltv70, on the other, the banks go from blr-2.1 to blr-2.4.
if gomen really want to stop this, they wud hv set tighter blr and reserves, impose higher rpgt. but they won't, not now.
as we know, if that happens, construction/prop dev grind to a halt, where to get gdp growth to win erections?
for same reason, notice how fast they propse, approve and award mrt contracts?

in a situation like this, many losers, many winners.
most losers from working class, poorer ones.
biggest winners are the rich, ones on the inside or the connected ones to the inside.
dun forget, before the props get launched, hundreds of mils already made by some with land deals.

this is a good observation, same situation locally here.
check around with the master speculators.
vast majority live in modest apts/condos or terrace houses but gorenging multiple units of luxury highrise, smds, etc.
won't find an nvestor living in a bungalow goreng just 1-2 apts or small houses.
"eat cannot afford, gamble can".
like someone said before, "live by the sword, die by the sword"!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 18 2011, 03:55 PM

before putting all yr money and debt into prop, pls think about having enough to eat and keep yr car or not!!

ok, i am sure some will say everything still cheap in malayisa incl homes...



http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...rchasing-power/

a currency can only appreciate against others if there is a lot of foreign exchange buying the currency, i.e. foreign inv coming in an/or high production exports to earn foreign currency. good example is sgd - this island attracts lots of foreign money, tourist$ and foreigners buying the props.
if you look at the rm performace in the last few years, it has depr against all major currecncies except the usd - that's because usa released >1.5 trillion new money via quantitative easing to relieve themselves of the massive debt and to keep the liquidity going, knowing inflation will rise, which has happened, of course. then again, usa is a big economy that can hold better and longer.
until msia incr productio&productivity, export more, attract more fdi (and not capital flight as we know), rise in int rates - no chance rm will rise. fyi, it is now fast approaching sgd 1 = rm2.5. pushing property prices with easy lending for local buyers does not help the strength of the currency.
you mean build-then-sell? according to this artilce, the government is expected to make the BTS system mandatory by 2015.
bts will have massive implications. politically, no chance since many small crony type develoeprs will get sudden death, no more gravy train.
http://www.theedgeproperty.com/news-a-view...ays-banker.html

the foreign buying is very small compared to total.

gst... if they do it today, there'll probably be riots...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 19 2011, 04:33 PM

all gomens in the world bs about inflation data. a matter of how far they go.
for klang valley, maybe more accurate in reality if we take official figure x 5!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 21 2011, 11:57 PM

lower initial payment, i.e. affordability cut 3 ways:
1. easier for genuine homebuyers
2. easier for speculators
3. easier for developers to sell

major side effect = ballooning debt.
maybe some see that as rising income, people getting richer, good gdp growth.

more and more comments/reports like this coming out.

how long can gomen hold with these subsidies? when they give up or give up partially, price of everything except wages will rise like hell.
yes, inflation theoretically should push prop prices further up, but think again in our current local context...
at a certain point, many people will barely be able to afford the essentials - food, petrol, medical, edu, how to service hefty loans?
and if at that certain point, int rates forced to rise, what happens then?

majority of mysians rich-rich, continue to buy, any price for prop still buy?
which pops will take a hit first?
which ones will hold a little better?
which ones will still up-up-up... if any?

this change will not happen yet, the sinking deepens.

no, cars are behind housing debt.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/breakin....mohamed-idris/
can only guess u r one of the privileged boys?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 26 2011, 07:25 PM

the difference is even more pronounced if your brother is >20yrs older!
the explanation is well known - the seeds for wealth were not not planted properly but either squandered on bad soil or stolen outright.

given the adamance not to admit it and change, this condition will persist. mysian's used to wonder why filipino nurses with basic degrees come to work here as maids. the day mysians go abroad to work as maids and coolies is not an impossibility. unless you have strong fama bank support, the future isn't bright for the younger gen, that much is clear.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 27 2011, 09:37 AM

productivity is the word.

i remember an expert said that if competitive productivity is factored into some industries, wages need to be cut by 20%.

it still doesn't add up - 8 yrs in a row, completion > new starts . lots of units started >8 yrs ago, now slowly coming onstream?
more likely data is screwed up or massaged like inflation to make you feel good, buy more since shortage, shortage!!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 28 2011, 11:45 PM

does a bank making billions with prop loans ever write something that tells people to run, things are not looking good?
such reports, read with a big pinch of salt.
remember we have massive brain drain, so maybe no more brains to write truthful reports.

---

Added on April 30, 2011, 1:19 ami dun think that many people buy subsale to invest or speculate. they almost always buy new for that.
subsale activity is a good indicator for own stay buying.
there is no doubt susbales have slowed considerably in the last few months.
ltv70 is a factor but the main explanation is prices have gone high enough to turn own stay buyers off.
100% loan is a sure firestarter for speculating new, but may not be so for someone buying subsale for own stay.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 30 2011, 01:21 AM

we know this for a long time already. only now some officials speak up.
yet we some claim prices go up due to inflation, natural event, cheaper than other countries, upupup...
the more impt question is why is gomen and bnm doing little about it.
with property loans ballooning to all time highs, what happens to gdp and the rest of the economy if they stop all these frantic or greedy buying?

banks normally raise their blrs in tandem with increase in bnm's opr. maybe already by today.
but banks can do blr -2.6%, blr -2.8.0% if they want to for certain amounts and promotions.

that much we know. prices of dev launches will never drop if the banks are in cahoots with dev and their ever incr prices for new ones.
but banks seem to be far less generous with subsale houses valuation - even for 99% same house, completed somemore.
one explanation is banks feel safer lending to jacked up prices thru developers where it is much easier to deal in bulk since vast majority are speculators, only too eager to borrow and sign w/o questioning!!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: May 6 2011, 10:59 AM

we actually now have:

very slow economy --> unaffordable housing (with the protected NEP)

let's just say i'm not as optimistic as you are about this etp. but that's ok, up to one to take a position.

long time ago, mysia considered mini tiger following s korea, sing, taiwan. looks like now, it's lumped with cambodia, armenia, azerbaijan!!
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...house-says-adb/

will take a lot more than one big noise etp to make a country wealthy.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: May 6 2011, 03:13 PM