if it is not sudden, it isn't a crash!


one can take this lightly and gomen surely seem to be so - they keep borrowing and allow you to borrow to the hilt. may not be a property balloon any more but one big debt balloon.
been said a dozen times here, ballooning debt is simply not sustainable. what will they do eventually? default on debts? devalue currency? maresia still paradise in 10 yrs time?



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 16 2011, 04:32 PM

yr description is a simple way to put it but is correct, imo.
little agri produce, factory output stagnant, domestic inv and fdi dwindling,
counting on plam oil exports and still some crude production.
continued enlarging budget deficits, increasing household and gomen debt, continued capital and brain flight.
massive corruption, leakages and inefficiency.

skyrocketing prop prices... everyone will make money in the end? or some will pay dearly for it?
if this kind of economy works for long, there shouldn't be any poor nation on earth!

agree. renting means no completion risk, no int rates risk, more cash to spend or invest elsewhere (e.g. gold gave gave about 60% in RM in the last 3 years). dun like the the place or landlord, just move!

leveraging is the key to high % gain but it comes with high risk. there is no such inv as high gain low risk, is there? maybe for some highly connected and privileged ones...

it's the hefty price hikes in the last 2 yrs that got people into either fear or greed mode to bbb - just about anything new.
everybody now talking either politics or property prices at the wet market, at the kopishops, at fren's house.
during the normal years, not many people give a hoot about flipping props.
i have one that gave me 20% appr over 10 years and another 100% in 5 yrs.
ok, some are simply not so smart or lucky as some others who are sure to make money with props.
that's why my view has always been for own stay, can buy anytime if you have planned for it.
overborrow to flip or expecting high rental to cover... just have a plan what to do if and when the shix hits the fan.

during good times, any inv can make good money. in the early nineties, some people started to believe they were gods since everything they touched turned to gold. came 1998, many lost everything. don't underestimate what the market can do despite all that you think you can control. if the market can reward handsomely, it can also punish severely. if now in 20s and 30s, have not seen the worst of times, do be careful. one wrong move can set you back by 10 yrs.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 20 2011, 04:45 PM

if you believe in conspiracy theories like that told in Inside Job, the really talented (and powerful) ones are the ones that made millions when prices go up and then make millions again to make sure it crash! well, someone will have to pay for those millions made...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 22 2011, 12:15 PM

there is a big difference between "hoping to crash" and "expecting to crash". And there is wide range of interpretations for the word "crash".
perhaps a better word is price correction.
i suppose that is the premise for the few hundred pages of debate here.


that essentially will become the key issue. prices can't go up forever when few have money or ability to borrow.
there will be some price correction or adjustment, imo.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 22 2011, 03:30 PM

impt point. one only needs to see why gomen and bnm are:
1. so quick in approving/awarding lrt-mrt projects, megatower
2. good guy bad guy play in dishing out prop loans
no prediction but just looking at the rate of household debt and incr and gdp, prop constr is a major contributor.
i wud think if launches and constr are reduced by half, gdp may dwindle to 2-3%.
stop lrt-mrt-towers, may even slip into recession...
bolehsia's living on sex videos and race politics, our neighbors have handsome agriculture exports, tourist $ and fdi.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 22 2011, 05:21 PM

this may incr new home prices further but can people afford it?
why aren't some of the 20 odd mil mysians interested in constr and manual work?
so wealthy? too well taken care of? say no to jobs unless aircond?
a new era is coming, mysians can't go on like this...
gomen better wake up and stop lying!!




This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 22 2011, 06:45 PM

usa style:
1. borrow and spend
2. subprime?
3. qe1, qe2 next?




prices will rise further - can you afford anything?


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 23 2011, 07:59 PM

there will be thousands of 800sqft basic apts in kv and thousands of single storey houses in "rural" areas for this, supposed to be <220k as announced so far. only households <3k income will get 100% loan.

sime darby and other majors have built low cost apts in many places, nothing new...

isn't that saying myisans are actually poor and few foreigners want them?!

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Added on June 24, 2011, 10:55 amoh, you can forget kl-pj proper. the last news i read... bangi, nilai included. can expect dengkil, kuala selangor too...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 24 2011, 10:55 AM

u buy or not? buy to sell at 900k?

bcos banks-devs are in collusion. they build all costs inside and offer you 90% loan of price x.
similar house just completed, banks typically give loan of 85% of valuation which is usually 85% x, i.e, banks say that newly completed house is worth only 72% of an unbuilt one.
this has been going on for >2 yrs. hence the q-ing and balloting for new launches, recipe for goreng!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 27 2011, 09:16 PM