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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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AVFAN
post Mar 23 2011, 01:58 PM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Mar 23 2011, 11:14 AM)
when do you think is a good time to buy those older Mont Kiara condos such as Vista Kiara?  Is end of this year a good time?  How much is the market rate per sq ft in Vista Kiara now?

Thanks.
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bro, this thread is meant for gen discussion on prop climate.
details on specific props, better ask in separate thread. maybe some can help...
if buying for own stay, as long as you like it, can afford, decision is easy.
to goreng or expect high rental, diff story la... mk itself is past its prime, think you need not rush, imo.

AVFAN
post Mar 23 2011, 07:30 PM

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QUOTE
New household lending guidelines in effect in Q3
By Lee Wei LianMarch 23, 2011KUALA LUMPUR, March 23 – Bank Negara is looking to strengthen responsible lending by banks to households via a new set of guidelines that will take effect in the third quarter of this year.

This comes as household debt hit 75.9 per cent of Malaysia’s GDP last year as compared with less than 70 per cent from 2006 to 2008.

Bank Negara said today however that the new requirements are not intended or expected to hamper credit availability or processing time.

“The new guidelines will be in effect the third quarter of this year,” said Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz in a press conference today.

Key requirements in the new guidelines include suitability and affordability assessment, income verification, product disclosure sheets to facilitate informed decision making and a reworking of the compensation of sales and marketing staff to take into account fair dealing conduct.

Zeti stressed that the country’s household debt was being supported by financial assets and those assets are 2.4 times the value of the debt.

Figures provided by Bank Negara showed that “liquid” assets accounted for 64.6 per cent of household financial assets but 30 per cent of those assets comprise EPF savings which are meant to be savings for retirement.

Housing loans accounted for 45 per cent of household debt followed by car financing at 20 per cent, personal loans at 15 per cent and credit cards and purchase of securities, each at 5 per cent.

Asked about the high percentage of debt occupied by cars which are a depreciating asset, Zeti said that the bank does not expect cars to depreciate sharply over the next 5 years and expected improvements in public transport to also help reduce the figure.

The central bank governor also said that there was no risk of the new first home ownership scheme, which provides 100 per cent home financing to those earning less than RM3,000, affecting the loan quality of the banking system as banks would be conducting affordability and credit worthiness assessments.

Bank Negara also said that it will unveil a new financial sector blueprint in June that will enhance the banking sector’s ability to serve the Najib administration’s goal of a high income economy.

Other aims of the new blueprint include enhancing regional financial integration, promoting financial inclusion, strengthening resilience against disruptions to the financial system and broader economy and strengthening Malaysia’s position as an Islamic financial sector.


AVFAN
post Mar 24 2011, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Mar 24 2011, 01:53 PM)
If there are no buyers, how can property prices continue to go up? It's a matter of supply and demand.

Property prices in good areas are not dependent on people looking to buy their first homes. From my observation at property launches and from asking ppl in the RE industry, most of the buyers are - 1. older, cash rich folks 2. foreigners 3. Malaysians working overseas. Of course, this does not apply in places like Kajang or Klang.

Other than Mont Kiara and KLCC area, there's hardly a glut in properties.
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yep, a matter of supply and demand, but u forgot the big one - speculators or flippers buying and holding by the dozens. and we know there are plenty just here! if they can hold forever, then it is a non-issue.

dun be so sure about "hardly a glut". when you see it, it's too late to change yr mind.
AVFAN
post Mar 24 2011, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Mar 24 2011, 02:31 PM)
If they buy the "right" property, they can hold "forever". If cannot flip, just rent out lor. You'll be surprised at the demand for places to stay in the right areas.

Nah, other than those 2 places, there's no glut.
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of course, when we get to the specifics, there will always be a distribution of sure winners and sure losers with the majority in the middle.
question is how many will keep winning. everyone likes to think he/she is the one! tongue.gif


Added on March 24, 2011, 2:51 pm
QUOTE(prody @ Mar 24 2011, 02:26 PM)
Interesting piece on properties in China. Bit difficult to imagine 64 million empty apartments.

China's Ghost Cities
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thanks... good info. just when everyone has the impression that china props are still hot-hot...
64 million empty apts. largest mall in the world opened for 6 yrs now is empty. many more like that.

like the part commentator said, "these apts don't improve people's lives but add to gdp growth. gdp quantity, not quality", "prices are from 70-100K USD, only investors who live elsewhere buy them. when prices come down to near zero, some may buy them to live"!!!

let's hope it doesn't happen to some projects here...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 24 2011, 02:52 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 24 2011, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 24 2011, 05:30 PM)
Properties nowadays no longer depended on genuine home buyers.
There are a few categories now

1. Genuine home buyer, buying for own stay.
2. As part of asset allocation, as FD rate is low nowadays, a lot of cash rich people and company, treat it as a place to park their extra money, investment etc.
3. Foreigners.
4. Speculators, flippers.

(1) may be lacking in the market now, but (2) & (3) is the reason that property price holding up which provide the supporting point. Couple with inflation that many people realise will eat into their cash, RE become a few sole route to protect their cash.
Here properties market is a bit strange one.
Properties price seldom plunge like stock price, but totally out of demand, aka you see properties being abandoned, idle, nobody interested, instead of price going down spirally.
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this, i agree. holding vacant props as a form of saving has become more popular for sure. that's because there are few places to park savings with relatively low risk although return is not guaranteed. top it up with the constant threat of inflation, gst, etc. this actually speaks very poorly of the economic situation here. people with money are finding it hard to proctect their hard earned wealth. boring bursa, low fd rates and starting a biz is not easy these day which in turn is not helped by foreign money not coming in. so, it's all the gomen's doing. tongue.gif

the big question is how long this will last. hope not, but if some politics go very wrong and more local capital starts to fly away, we'll see if holding vacant props will make sense as a form of saving anymore.

all said, i do not think this "vacant prop as saving" is a major one. the bulk of the "support pointers" are speculators with overborrowed debts. i will watch changes in blr, ltv, rpgt and npls to gauge the behavior of this group.


AVFAN
post Mar 25 2011, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Mar 25 2011, 03:03 PM)
whether prices is gonna come down or not, let's look at what's happening around us:
property that i could remember that was launched this year so far:
1. summer suites, sunrise
2. capers, ytl
3. KM1, berjaya
4. the Arc in cyberjaya, andaman
5. mirage by the lake, OSK
6. serin residency
7. fraser's suite
8. the place @ Cyberjaya
9. a bunch of projects on jalan puchong, okr
so far, not even a hint of it slowing down but instead, they are grabbing as if it's the last development on earth!
bubble or not, u decide lor.
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u r rite... buy one each this wkend, make 200k each by 2014, can retire with 2mil. tongue.gif

incredible that all the warnings on inflation, int rates, rpgt not deterring some. devs and banks may be ruthlessly greedy, but buyers have a choice.

n u r rite again - bubble or not, choose wisely. either you believe all is good, easy money is out there to make or you believe the sensitivity is now heightened, the "crash" may come anytime now.

best might be to stay neutral - just buy for own stay and/or what you can hold, not leveraged until u need to abscond when the shix hits the fan.
AVFAN
post Mar 26 2011, 11:51 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Mar 26 2011, 11:24 PM)
Despite the alarm being raised on the amount of debt households are carrying, data indicate it's not a problem for the financial system as much of those loans are back by collateral and the assets of households are more than double their debts.

Malaysian cepat lupa or Human cepat lupa??? it is a known fact that the U.S financial crisis is caused by the housing market, the value of the so call collateral (properties) or assets that backing the loans declined significantly during crisis time. The collaterals were of course valued more than the mortgage loans when the banks decided to lend , the value only dropped sharply when crisis kicked in shakehead.gif
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not only usa. same thing in iceland, ireland, greece and portugal.
think about it, that explanation can only be true. becos if it isn't, how can there ever be a collapse in prop mkt n prices?
since so many countries have been thru it, it does seem to say some gomens turn a blind eye for reasons best known to themselves.
who ends up losing and paying the most is less clear.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 26 2011, 11:58 PM
AVFAN
post Mar 28 2011, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ Mar 28 2011, 11:19 AM)
I just watched the inside job. Being an investor myself, I do agree we need to be very careful. I don't live in a world of my own and I think it is wise to take precautions. Most will not realize how serious is the problem until reality hits hard.

even after watching it, some will say, "nah... we're special, we're different, we're safe".
if usa gomen can allow such things, any reason to think gomen here is more prudent?
AVFAN
post Mar 28 2011, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(DaveMustaine @ Mar 28 2011, 01:45 PM)
I'm a real house buyer. I will try to convince you guys to buy a house now. Not from the speculators but from developers themselves. It will surely be min 30k-50k cheaper. From my recent experience, I was kicked out of my rent house after one year rent, just becoz the owner want to make 150k profit thru the subsale. Now I have to find another house in the same area (becoz my kids are studying here) and it cost me RM300 more  shocking.gif . It was like..what the hell??..my rent is now almost like a house monthly installment?
Should I wait for the rent to go down or buy a new house? I don't like to gamble so I just bought myself a new house (which is a little bit further from where I'm staying now) icon_rolleyes.gif .
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i feel for you and understand too. in yr case, it is out of need and not speculation. for that, anytime is a good time as long as you have thought through, can afford it and will live there to enjoy the benefits as planned. based on my last home purchase at some peak, just be prepared in the event you do not get more than 10% cap appr in the next 10 years. not pouring cold water, but better be informed rather than be shocked unnecessarily.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 28 2011, 09:50 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 1 2011, 04:41 PM

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ge13 will come after s'wak state elections.
gomen will freeze all rate hikes, gst, no petrol price up, no subsidy cuts - for now.
wait till bn win back 2/3 majority.
2012 - when they hike int rates, toll rates, petrol price n slap gst, wonder still got any money left to eat...
how to buy inflated price prop?
AVFAN
post Apr 3 2011, 10:50 PM

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QUOTE(tigana @ Apr 3 2011, 10:13 PM)
Look at the huge quarterly profits announced by property developers - they are making a killing. These guys are experts. A whole bunch of the premier developers focus on one area - cooperate in building up the infrastructure/amenities, make it very attractive, charge premium price.

that isn't necessarily a bad thing if they complete the infra and amenities become reality on time. the risk is if and when the music stops and if you paid premium in a new area for a promise that stays unfulfilled for years, dreams get shattered.

as to which areas might fall into this, that is always a hot debate, so better not bring it up here...
AVFAN
post Apr 5 2011, 01:09 PM

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QUOTE(PeterChai288 @ Apr 5 2011, 12:46 PM)
Try to evaluate this 4 things in the past...which 1 is depreciating???i take it 10 years back...
FOOD for ex: Mee soup rm3.5 n now simply rm4.5 (not those prime areas too).
Clothing for ex: Levis jean rm 80 n now if u dun hv rm 100++ can't even buy it.(Forgive me if i'm wrong coz i'm seldom shopping nowadays)
Transportation ex: intrakota cost??? n now rapidkl cost??? U calculate it...not even dare to mention taxis fare...

i agree to the extent inflationary effects and a lackluster rm reduces the purchasing power of both local n imported goods.
but you miss the big one - income of the majority is not keeping pace - this is bad news for all, but is new for the country.
it wasn't like that until the last 10 yrs of crap economic policies, spending on useless projects and plundering took us all to where we are - stagnant income-high cost environment.

debt and increasing debt is the main reason pushing prop prices up.
it is generally true home prices will rise over a long term period like eseentials.
if jeans, intrakota, petrol and gst will eat up a much bigger piece of yr income, will you plunge into investing prop and live on air and water?
basics come first, there is a priority in life when yr $ are limited.
the way it is going, there'll come a point in kv that too much debt and too little real income will break into a situation where for the majority, priority goes to food, education and healthcare, not prop inv or even a new home.

an alternative scenario is 5% of the popn owns 95% of all props in urban areas, the rest can only rent.
so, if you are rich enough to be among the 5%, good for you!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 5 2011, 01:14 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 5 2011, 03:11 PM

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QUOTE
#11 Czech Republic
Annual Change: Down 3.0%
#10 Spain
Annual Change: Down 3.5%
#9 Japan
Annual Change: Down 3.6%
#8 Portugal
Annual Change: Down 4.0%
#7 United States
Annual Change: Down 4.1%
#6 Greece
Annual Change: Down 6.0%
#5 Dubai, UAE
Annual Change: Down 6.1%
#4 Croatia
Annual Change: Down 7.2%
#3 Ukraine
Annual Change: Down 7.8%
#2 Lithuania
Annual Change: Down 10.1%
#1 Ireland
Annual Change: Down 10.8%

good evidence. those who keep saying props always go up , never come down because of inflation, pls think again.

or is it again here is different, special, protected, boleh?? or things happening here are somewhat similar to what happened in usa and the p.i.g.s. who are by the way also having high inflation?
AVFAN
post Apr 8 2011, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 8 2011, 08:13 AM)
But on the basis of capital appreciation, established & mature areas like TTDI, Bandar Utama, Bangsar, etc will always hold their prices.
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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 8 2011, 09:26 AM)
This statement is flaw. They maybe able hold their price (capital guaranteed) but not capital appreciate tongue.gif
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those 3 places plus sri hartamas are always used to justify "prime areas will always go up".
there is no doubt these old matured established houses will hold their value.
but i doubt a typical investor will go buy an old house there to goreng. biggrin.gif
not many available for sale, anyway.
AVFAN
post Apr 11 2011, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 11 2011, 12:33 PM)
actually many people expect house price to drop, my question are :-
1) how much is the degree that they expected? drop 10% fr current mkt price? 20%, 30%, 50%, or below than developer's price?
2) how much drop would make them buying their dream house?
3) Would they buy even the house price drop 50% and they still can't "really" afford to buy?
4) would they buy when the price has dropped to the level of afford-ability (even though drop 10% only)?
5) Totally not buying regardless of any price drop

IMO, I feel sometime is too general to discuss whether property price will drop or not, because somehow you will be right one day, is just when?

May be the above topic would be more realistic to be discussed further on...
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was discussed before. i dun think there are many expecting 30 or 50% "drop", more likely a correction of 15-20%.
i believe what most people mean by "drop" is two fold:
. a 2-3 yr old house now calling subsale at 80-100% cap appr is too hard to swallow - 30-40% might be acceptable to many
. developers stop raising price by 15-20% for each new launch - 5% will be acceptable - or they stop launching
the two are related; one will affect the other, just like now high dev prices help push subsale prices and vice versa.

another possiblity is prices stay flat for 3-5 yrs before trending up again - buyers have time to consider and buy. not like now simply sapu!

reading other forums, it is quite incredible to read some investors are complaining about 40-50% cap appr just after 2-3 yrs, unhappy not getting 100%! no wonder some people no need to work lor... that is, if people will willingly continue to feed them full with high subsale prices.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 11 2011, 01:02 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 11 2011, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 11 2011, 01:37 PM)
hahaha.
my aunt is subsale.
original price is rm30k!
i think that was about 30 to 40 years ago lah.

PS: say current value at rm800k
that's rm740k profit over say 40 years.
that still works out to >30% compounded annual return. rclxub.gif
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recheck yr math.

=(1.067)^40*60=803

correct answer is 6.7% cagr which is about right for very long term.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 11 2011, 02:45 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 11 2011, 08:35 PM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Apr 11 2011, 08:02 PM)
What makes u think the units will be left empty while the owner "struggles" with loans, fees etc? 

oh, it will be a range of results.
some will keep vacant, keep paying for 5 or more yrs.
some will rent cheap.
some will sell quick.
some will end up lelong.
it's a matter of yr view on how many gorengers have the resources to pay for it all.
me, i think a good %, say 30% are quite poor, overborrow, thanks to the lax banks wanting to make $.
AVFAN
post Apr 11 2011, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Apr 11 2011, 09:26 PM)
How come those hoping for a price drop conveniently left out the fact that properties in the right location:
I) can be rented out at a rate that can easily cover the loan installments and other miscellaneous expenses
II) have demand from tenants that outstrips supply
In fact..... in some places, units available for sale are few, and the demand more,  despite the increse in prices recently.
But I do agree with the highlighted part.
Btw have those hoping for a price drop formed a Support Club or something. Noticed a few forumers eagerly agreeing with anything posted against property price increases/evil speculators without posting opinions of their own  hmm.gif
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if you get into the specifics, you get nowhere. we should keep to the generalities so as stay relevant to the thread topic. just as there are some props that will thrive come what may, some will die standing! moreover, if there are units "guaranteed" to win, will the price justify a continued "guarantee"?

this thread has been fair, imo. while there are some who try to use it to talk up prop prices, there are others who will want to talk it down. yet some will like to talk it flat or not talk at all. tongue.gif

ok to keep going this way. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 11 2011, 09:39 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 12 2011, 01:03 AM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 11 2011, 11:06 PM)
i believe that resources (savings) are limited. if indeed what some analysts said that 80% are genuine buyers (buying for own stay) over the past two years.

This means the buyer pool shrank already (genuine buyers won't buy 10 or 20 units for own stay), because genuine buyers usually buy and stop looking for at least 5 years before they think of upgrading etc some even stick to the house for >10 years. So, if 80% genuine buyers over the past 2-3 years, now they are less buyers in the market, make sense right? unless income is growing at the pace of property prices, less buyers will enter into this so called buyers pool.

If uncles aunties buying for their kids (help pay the downpayment etc), how many kids they have? and how much savings have already gone into the property market over the past two years? so buying/investing power has deteriorates also rite?  hmm.gif
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i agree with yr thinking. and i think it's 80% investors in the last 1 yr.
just need to talk to frens and colleagues who recently purchased.


Added on April 12, 2011, 1:10 am
QUOTE(Veda @ Apr 11 2011, 09:51 PM)
The purpose of a debate is to dissect an issue...... not talk about "generalities".
after 147 pages, still dissecting...!!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 12 2011, 01:10 AM
AVFAN
post Apr 12 2011, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Apr 12 2011, 01:57 PM)
What happens when everybody hedges their extra cash in props.   Alot of good that will do.
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this is a relevant question. in an efficient economy, any surge in demand for one type of inv usually brings about a corresponding drop in return, then many will run off to other options. the same thing will eventually happen with props here.

(in an earlier example, a house in PJ gave avg 6.7% cagr over 40 yrs - which means there are periods of low and high cap appr.
buy at right time, one may think it is normal, easy money; buy at wrong time one may not see appr for a good few years.)

the trouble here is there aren't that many choices to invest or just to hedge against inflation - bursa sucks as it is all epf and other local funds; unit trusts are as bad as bursa; fx sucks becos the buy-sell spread is very large. those amanahs giving 7-8-9%, disqualified.

given the reports of huge sums of capital have left the country in the last 10 years and huge domestic debt have piled up in the same period, it is up to one to take a position whether this prop party can last much longer or not.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 12 2011, 04:02 PM

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