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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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kh8668
post Jun 27 2011, 02:18 PM

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By DALJIT DHESI
daljit@thestar.com.my | Jun 27, 2011
Foreign property loans up

Thoo Mee Ling

PETALING JAYA: Banks, especially those with regional operations, are fighting for a larger share in the financing of foreign properties fuelled by the strength of the local currency and weaker property markets overseas.

The stronger ringgit, according to industry observers, has led investors to scout for cheaper properties in Britain, Australia, Singapore and in the United States to diversify their investment portfolio.

Judging from the rising number of advertisements for the sale of foreign properties in local dailies, industry observers foresee a good prospect for banks’ foreign property portfolio and improvement in margins.

RAM Holdings group chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said: “We do see growing interest among selected Malaysian banks to extend loans for foreign property purchases in line with overseas investment opportunities presented to local investors, especially in countries where the property markets have hit the bottom or poised for an upturn.

“Overseas lending opportunities are likely to be selective depending on demand by Malaysian firms and high net worth individuals as well as the strategies, risk appetite and credit assessment capabilities of individual banks.

“We anticipate only selective banks notably, the large ones with regional presence making forays into this area given their size, market and networking advantage.”

As banks apply risk-based pricing, Yeah said they may be able to enhance margins to commensurate with a higher risk level when assessing for overseas properties.

Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd chief economist Nor Zahidi Alias said the appreciation of the ringgit dramatically against the greenback and other currencies such as the sterling pound over the past one year has induced investors to diversify their investments to include purchasing properties overseas.

Although it has somewhat retraced from its highest level of RM2.95 against the US dollar, he said the prospect of the ringgit was still favourable judging by the US Federal Reserves’ pledge to maintain its accommodative monetary stance at its last meeting and the positive growth momentum of the Malaysian economy.

As such, Zahidi added investing in properties overseas would likely enhance investors’ returns through foreign exchange gains. Another critical factor that had spurred investors to invest in other countries was the significant decline in property prices, he noted.

In the US, for instance, home prices in 20 major cities have fallen 30% from their peak.

According to Case-Shiller/S&P, the producer of the gauge, real housing prices in the US had plunged to levels not seen since the 1890s (when adjusted for inflation) in 11 of the 20 markets surveyed.

The fact that the index has been in negative territory in the past five months since November last year signalled that investors have the opportunity to purchase properties at low prices, he said.

Similarly in Britain, he said although home prices were just 13% off their peak in 2007, they were more affordable compared with three years ago, adding that this was a great opportunity for long-term investments.

Zahidi said stiff competition would also keep driving banks to look for creative ways to improve their bottom lines, as long as they did not breach Bank Negara’s guidelines and regulations.

As such, he added it was not surprising that Malaysian banks are seeking alternative avenues to increase their loan growth.

The Government at the same time does not discourage its residents from investing abroad as this could help to stabilise the liquidity condition in the financial system given there was no let up in the capital inflows.

This is seen from the rise in the Malaysia’s international reserve assets which currently stood at RM402.6bil as of June 15, closer to its previous high of RM410.9bil achieved in June 2008.

In response to a query, Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) via the Association of Banks in Malaysia (ABM) in a statement said it currently only offered financing for properties in certain areas of London but has plans to look at Australia.

An international bank operating in Malaysia said it offerred financing for properties in Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Australia and Britain.

For banks that provide financing for overseas properties, the lending could be in local and foreign currency. Whereas, financing in pound is extended to Malaysians for buy-to-let purposes only and entails monthly repayments in that currency, Maybank said.

OCBC Bank (M ) Bhd is now offering a mortgage loan facility to finance the purchase of residential properties in prime sections of central London.

OCBC Bank head of consumer financial services Charles Sik said the introduction of the OCBC Overseas Property Financing facility was timely as customers would be able to take advantage of the ringgit-based loan, hence mitigating the effects of fluctuating foreign exchange risks.

Meanwhile, the bank’s head of secured lending Thoo Mee Ling said the interest rate offered was comparable to the domestic home loans even though the collateral was in foreign market.

She said OCBC Bank was currently looking at a few more viable markets for foreign property financing.

http://www.starproperty.my/PropertyScene/P...yNews/12877/0/0
cybermaster98
post Jun 27 2011, 02:26 PM

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QUOTE(dreamadream @ Jun 27 2011, 12:10 PM)
Some of my friends hv already given up on buying although they can afford, but renting is comparatively way cheaper, no points taking unnecessary risk and one of my friends said when the market is corrected, with the same amt of money he could afford better location, better quality prop. just wanna share. smile.gif
That wont happen in prime & matured areas. That is just wishful thinking. I think renting a property is always a waste as only the landlord profits. Anybody choosing to rent while waiting for the market to drop is just wasting their time and their money.

Just imagine this scenario. Say somebody rents an apartment for RM 1500 per month for 2 years hoping for the property prices to stabilise then. In that 2 years, the rental expenditure would have been RM 36,000. That is money out of his pocket and into the pocket of the landlord. But in 2 years time, does he actually think prime area property prices will be RM 36K or more lower??

Prime areas have not dropped in the pricing (generally). In bad times it would stagnate but waiting for a price drop in my opinion is just wishful thinking.

sampool
post Jun 27 2011, 02:33 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jun 27 2011, 03:26 PM)
That wont happen in prime & matured areas. That is just wishful thinking. I think renting a property is always a waste as only the landlord profits. Anybody choosing to rent while waiting for the market to drop is just wasting their time and their money.

Just imagine this scenario. Say somebody rents an apartment for RM 1500 per month for 2 years hoping for the property prices to stabilise then. In that 2 years, the rental expenditure would have been RM 36,000. That is money out of his pocket and into the pocket of the landlord. But in 2 years time, does he actually think prime area property prices will be RM 36K or more lower??

Prime areas have not dropped in the pricing (generally). In bad times it would stagnate but waiting for a price drop in my opinion is just wishful thinking.
*
that person must be rich man loh RM1500 rent a apartment... fully furnish (with frezeer/air-cond/washing machine)?
kh8668
post Jun 27 2011, 02:36 PM

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general 2-storey terrace houses in PJ (old old old one) are renting at not less than 1700 per month. >.<"
CKHong
post Jun 27 2011, 02:42 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jun 27 2011, 02:26 PM)
That wont happen in prime & matured areas. That is just wishful thinking. I think renting a property is always a waste as only the landlord profits. Anybody choosing to rent while waiting for the market to drop is just wasting their time and their money.

Just imagine this scenario. Say somebody rents an apartment for RM 1500 per month for 2 years hoping for the property prices to stabilise then. In that 2 years, the rental expenditure would have been RM 36,000. That is money out of his pocket and into the pocket of the landlord. But in 2 years time, does he actually think prime area property prices will be RM 36K or more lower??

Prime areas have not dropped in the pricing (generally). In bad times it would stagnate but waiting for a price drop in my opinion is just wishful thinking.
*
it's either u pay the money to the investor/landlord or u pay the money to the bank.. its just the same.
let say u get a subsale, borrow 350k from the bank. BLR - 2.4 = 4.2%
350k * 4.2% = 14700. [just the interest charged by bank]

with the inflation rate in bolehland keep increasing > electric naik, diesel naik , fish naik
after election > confirm petrol naik, then macam macam naik..
properties also naik till so gila
veli hard eh...


Added on June 27, 2011, 2:43 pm
QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 27 2011, 02:33 PM)
that person must be rich man loh RM1500 rent a apartment... fully furnish (with frezeer/air-cond/washing machine)?
*
lol agreed.. apartment RM1500 per month.. its kinda high end.. i read ur comment only realise it..
in my place.. can rent a decent condo liao smile.gif


Added on June 27, 2011, 2:45 pm
QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jun 27 2011, 02:36 PM)
general 2-storey terrace houses in PJ (old old old one) are renting at not less than 1700 per month. >.<"
*
have around 5 rooms rite ? smile.gif
if divide the room and share among housemate..
still consider quite affordable for those who choose to rent rather than purchase a subsale

This post has been edited by CKHong: Jun 27 2011, 02:45 PM
sampool
post Jun 27 2011, 03:04 PM

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just observe...

This post has been edited by sampool: Jun 27 2011, 03:04 PM
kh8668
post Jun 27 2011, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Jun 27 2011, 02:42 PM)
it's either u pay the money to the investor/landlord or u pay the money to the bank.. its just the same.
let say u get a subsale, borrow 350k from the bank. BLR - 2.4 = 4.2%
350k * 4.2% = 14700. [just the interest charged by bank]

with the inflation rate in bolehland keep increasing > electric naik, diesel naik , fish naik
after election > confirm petrol naik, then macam macam naik..
properties also naik till so gila
veli hard eh...


Added on June 27, 2011, 2:43 pm
lol agreed.. apartment RM1500 per month.. its kinda high end..  i read ur comment only realise it..
in my place.. can rent a decent condo liao  smile.gif


Added on June 27, 2011, 2:45 pm
have around 5 rooms rite ?  smile.gif
if divide the room and share among housemate..
still consider quite affordable for those who choose to rent rather than purchase a subsale
*
4 rooms.

five rooms can easily rent at above 2000
dreamadream
post Jun 27 2011, 03:15 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jun 27 2011, 02:26 PM)
That wont happen in prime & matured areas. That is just wishful thinking. I think renting a property is always a waste as only the landlord profits. Anybody choosing to rent while waiting for the market to drop is just wasting their time and their money.

Just imagine this scenario. Say somebody rents an apartment for RM 1500 per month for 2 years hoping for the property prices to stabilise then. In that 2 years, the rental expenditure would have been RM 36,000. That is money out of his pocket and into the pocket of the landlord. But in 2 years time, does he actually think prime area property prices will be RM 36K or more lower??

Prime areas have not dropped in the pricing (generally). In bad times it would stagnate but waiting for a price drop in my opinion is just wishful thinking.
*

Added on June 27, 2011, 3:20 pm
QUOTE(CKHong @ Jun 27 2011, 02:42 PM)
it's either u pay the money to the investor/landlord or u pay the money to the bank.. its just the same.
let say u get a subsale, borrow 350k from the bank. BLR - 2.4 = 4.2%
350k * 4.2% = 14700. [just the interest charged by bank]

with the inflation rate in bolehland keep increasing > electric naik, diesel naik , fish naik
after election > confirm petrol naik, then macam macam naik..
properties also naik till so gila
veli hard eh...


Added on June 27, 2011, 2:43 pm
lol agreed.. apartment RM1500 per month.. its kinda high end..  i read ur comment only realise it..
in my place.. can rent a decent condo liao  smile.gif


Added on June 27, 2011, 2:45 pm
have around 5 rooms rite ?  smile.gif
if divide the room and share among housemate..
still consider quite affordable for those who choose to rent rather than purchase a subsale
*
Exactly what my friend said. With the ridiculously high property prices and relatively cheap rental, it is not worth to OWE the bank so much money coz interest rate has bottomed, meaning paying more interest to banks, but rental has been stagnant (if not declining), thanks to many new launchings and many have also jump into the bandwagon leaving the rental segment more competitive.

This post has been edited by dreamadream: Jun 27 2011, 03:20 PM
GangHo
post Jun 27 2011, 03:24 PM

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Based on the current scenario,

1) if the property price in Asia starts to fall, do you think Malaysia can be spared? And why?

2) if the property price in South East Asia starts to fall, do you think Malaysia can be spared? And why?
cybermaster98
post Jun 27 2011, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Jun 27 2011, 02:42 PM)
it's either u pay the money to the investor/landlord or u pay the money to the bank.. its just the same.
let say u get a subsale, borrow 350k from the bank. BLR - 2.4 = 4.2%
350k * 4.2% = 14700. [just the interest charged by bank]

apartment RM1500 per month.. its kinda high end..  i read ur comment only realise it..
in my place.. can rent a decent condo liao  smile.gif
Paying a bank is the same as paying landlord??? Why? At the end of the tenure, your landlord gonna give u his house or condo is it? Common la my friend. U pay the bank at least ure paying for something that can become yours.

I meant condo la. Focus on the main point not on a single word. vmad.gif

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Jun 27 2011, 03:25 PM
cybermaster98
post Jun 27 2011, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(dreamadream @ Jun 27 2011, 03:15 PM)
Exactly what my friend said. With the ridiculously high property prices and relatively cheap rental, it is not worth to OWE the bank so much money coz interest rate has bottomed, meaning paying more interest to banks, but rental has been stagnant (if not declining), thanks to many new launchings and many have also jump into the bandwagon leaving the rental segment more competitive.
The only prices which are ridiculous are the prices of the new launches. Prime areas have been growing steadily for the past 10 years. Who asked u to buy new launches? I have always said this and im gonna say it again. FOCUS ON SUBSALE PROPERTIES NOT NEW LAUNCHES.

Buying a property in the right area will get you excellent capital appreciation. So dont be foolish and claim that to avoid paying banks interest so u gonna rent. You will always be renting and u wont have anything at the end of the day. The only person that benefits will be the landlord. Trust me.
kh8668
post Jun 27 2011, 03:31 PM

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people do not mind to pay more for a brand new one especially come with good security and facilities.
Iceman74
post Jun 27 2011, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jun 27 2011, 03:29 PM)
The only prices which are ridiculous are the prices of the new launches. Prime areas have been growing steadily for the past 10 years. Who asked u to buy new launches? I have always said this and im gonna say it again. FOCUS ON SUBSALE PROPERTIES NOT NEW LAUNCHES.

Buying a property in the right area will get you excellent capital appreciation. So dont be foolish and claim that to avoid paying banks interest so u gonna rent. You will always be renting and u wont have anything at the end of the day. The only person that benefits will be the landlord. Trust me.
*
i partially agreed with you cos the subsale price are lagging behind but so does the valuation by the bank. not many ppls can afford pay both the difference + the renovation fees(at least elec wiring & water piping) must done to make a liveable condition.
CKHong
post Jun 27 2011, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jun 27 2011, 03:25 PM)
Paying a bank is the same as paying landlord??? Why? At the end of the tenure, your landlord gonna give u his house or condo is it? Common la my friend. U pay the bank at least ure paying for something that can become yours.

I meant condo la. Focus on the main point not on a single word.  vmad.gif
*
hmm.. sorry if i offended u.. as i calculated there, its just mainly the interest charged from bank.. if u really pay for it.. it will be >RM100~300 based on how long ur loan repayment period
If genuine buyers able to pay the bank repayment.. please go get ur dream house..
as for me.. renting currently cost me 420 .. included electric, water, internet, doesn't have to pay the maintenance fee's, currently nearer to my working place [condo]
after 3 years.. the prop i bought is built and i starts to pay the monthly installment...
i counted for worst case scenario.. [assume my electric bill is RM150, water RM50, internet RM100]
Solely on my part.. i have to pay 1600 [cover the loan + maintenance + water, electric , internet] - with the help of my gf paying as well..
but thats 3 years ahead.. which i think i can afford to pay it [trusting myself can get such increment in the next 3 years, job hopping]
So if you're able to tackle with the monthly $$... pls do get one for your own stay..
If for those who buy subsale , pls do some calculation as once u buy it.. u have to start pay the bank repayment..


QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jun 27 2011, 03:29 PM)
The only prices which are ridiculous are the prices of the new launches. Prime areas have been growing steadily for the past 10 years. Who asked u to buy new launches? I have always said this and im gonna say it again. FOCUS ON SUBSALE PROPERTIES NOT NEW LAUNCHES WHERE OWNER DOESN'T REQUEST FOR JACKUP PRICE TOO RIDICULOUS.

Buying a property in the right area will get you excellent capital appreciation. So dont be foolish and claim that to avoid paying banks interest so u gonna rent. You will always be renting and u wont have anything at the end of the day. The only person that benefits will be the landlord. Trust me.
*
let me correct your statement.. it's correct that, new launch price is ridiculous.. thanks to those developers.. but as new launch price is high, subsale will try to sell higher than the market price [owner greed]
its like.. new launch at Area X .. RM360 per square feet.. developer X.. subsale near Area X.. same developer X.. owner request for RM340 per square feet where market value [evaluation from bank] RM300 per square feet.

Buying a property in the right area will get you excellent capital appreciation > let say investor bought a unit.. after VP.. it appreciate 80%.. he sells it.. how much more appreciation will the 2nd buyers get ? cause its quite near the peak already.. don't forget.. let say 2nd buyer gets it.. and then wait for 2~3 years and it appreciate 30%.. he sell it.. lawyer fee's, macam macam fee's he have to pay.. don't forget the first 2~3 years he paid the bank for the interest.. how much left for the 2nd buyers get to profit ? unless the appreciation is high.. else 2nd buyer doesn't get much profit..

This post has been edited by CKHong: Jun 27 2011, 03:50 PM
dreamadream
post Jun 27 2011, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jun 27 2011, 03:29 PM)
The only prices which are ridiculous are the prices of the new launches. Prime areas have been growing steadily for the past 10 years. Who asked u to buy new launches? I have always said this and im gonna say it again. FOCUS ON SUBSALE PROPERTIES NOT NEW LAUNCHES.

Buying a property in the right area will get you excellent capital appreciation. So dont be foolish and claim that to avoid paying banks interest so u gonna rent. You will always be renting and u wont have anything at the end of the day. The only person that benefits will be the landlord. Trust me.
*
really wondering whether you do your research b4 giving your comments. Don;t you know that whenever there are new launches, subsale old properties at surrounding areas all go up together. you think existing house owners stupid?

For example, another friend bought kota damansara landed at RM350K few years back, you know what is the asking price now? close to RM700K, but the rental? less than RM2K, do your research first la.

did i ever mention about me and my friends eyeing at new launches? whistling.gif
Don;t simply put in your assumption and shoot people for no reason thinking that others are stupid/stubborm. People are entitle to take their positions, whether to buy or to rent.

and, who said my friend plans to FOREVER renting? at the current price, renting is relatively cheaper. You buy now immediately you owe the bank RM700K, what is important is your TOTAL Liability to the bank, property price adjusted 10%, immediately your liability lowers by RM70K. 2-years monthly installment will not give you RM70K equity in the house.

just wait for 2-3 years and see whether the prices get adjusted with slower growth globally and increading inflation. 2-years later with 700K, more options available with the new launches being completed. thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by dreamadream: Jun 27 2011, 03:47 PM
kh8668
post Jun 27 2011, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(dreamadream @ Jun 27 2011, 03:44 PM)
really wondering whether you do your research b4 giving your comments. When there are new launches, subsale old properties all go up together. another friend bought kota damansara landed at RM350K few years back, you know what is the asking price now? close to RM700K, but the rental? less than RM2K, do your research first la.

did i ever mention about me and my friends eyeing at new launches?  whistling.gif
Don;t simply think that other people are stupid.

and, who said my friend plans to FOREVER renting? at the current price, renting is relatively cheaper. You buy now immediately you owe the bank RM700K, what is important is your TOTAL Liability to the bank, property price adjusted 10%, immediately your liability lowers by RM70K. 2-years monthly installment will not give you RM70K equity in the house.

just wait for 2-3 years and see whether the prices get adjusted with slower growth globally and increading inflation. 2-years later with 700K, more options available with the new launches being completed. thumbup.gif
*
Eventually you need a house for yourself and your family, no?

just buy those within your reach lo...no need to crack head..right...

ya....two years later now 500k new property will sell at 700k...my guess.

some guesses 500k property now will be dropping t0 400k with sucking economy downturn.

some guesses 500k property now will be stagnanted after two/3 years.


who knows.....let time to tell.



This post has been edited by kh8668: Jun 27 2011, 03:51 PM
dreamadream
post Jun 27 2011, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jun 27 2011, 03:47 PM)
Eventually you need a house for yourself and your family, no?

just buy those within your reach lo...no need to crack head..right...
*
True also thumbup.gif
but buying for own stay fussy a bit is acceptable la.
if he doesnt mind paying rentals while looking for a value property,
who are we to say he is wise or unwise,
he can decide what is best for himself i guess biggrin.gif
(btw i also know affordability is not a concern for him)
kh8668
post Jun 27 2011, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(dreamadream @ Jun 27 2011, 03:56 PM)
True also  thumbup.gif
but buying for own stay fussy a bit is acceptable la.
if he doesnt mind paying rentals while looking for a value property,
who are we to say he is wise or unwise,
he can decide what is best for himself i guess  biggrin.gif
(btw i also know affordability is not a concern for him)
*
one of my friends is the opposite thinking..haha..

in 2010, he alone already bought 3 properties (all new condos; two undercon; one completed and rented out) worth a total of 1.5mil

prior to 2010, he owned 3 apartments (now these apartments are rented out)

Now, he ask me to look for him another one for investment. (anyway he is not in Malaysia now)
CKHong
post Jun 27 2011, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jun 27 2011, 04:00 PM)
one of my friends is the opposite thinking..haha..

in 2010, he alone already bought 3 properties (all new condos; two undercon; one completed and rented out) worth a total of 1.5mil

prior to 2010, he owned 3 apartments (now these apartments are rented out)

Now, he ask me to look for him another one for investment. (anyway he is not in Malaysia now)
*
he falls in the clever investor group smile.gif so nice.. by the time he paid all to the bank.. he can come back msia.. just collecting rental...
how nice.. rclxms.gif
dreamadream
post Jun 27 2011, 04:10 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jun 27 2011, 04:00 PM)
one of my friends is the opposite thinking..haha..

in 2010, he alone already bought 3 properties (all new condos; two undercon; one completed and rented out) worth a total of 1.5mil

prior to 2010, he owned 3 apartments (now these apartments are rented out)

Now, he ask me to look for him another one for investment. (anyway he is not in Malaysia now)
*
agreed, different people behave differently.

i also know someone (friend's friend) has a few properties in MK/PJ areas renting out, but he is driving a 15y proton iswara (or saga cant remember) and living in an old Taman in kepong. laugh.gif laugh.gif

i can;t understand coz if i hv a few properties in hand, will definitely wan my family to live in the nicest one while collecting rentals from the rest. but different people different style. just repect his decision lo biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by dreamadream: Jun 27 2011, 04:11 PM

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