When doing our planning, we should only consider what is consistent and predictable. Bonuses are not consistent and not predictable and therefore it should not be considered in our planning unless it is contractual bonus. This is also how the financial institutions consider our financial status.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 9 2011, 03:55 PM

wow, >10Mil RM net asset(after minus all loan if any)...... What is the annual income are we talking about? RM 1 Mil?

Instead of bond, let's talk about debts:-

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/thinktank/201...nt_12558278.htm

It is also true that whenever Republicans rattle their sabers about the debt ceiling, and threaten not to raise it, the bond market yawns and there is no significant impact on yields.

At least in the near term, the chance that the US will not service its debt is vanishingly small – perhaps in the same order of probability as a large meteor striking the earth.

Countries never default because they can’t pay their debts; there are always ways to decrease expenditures or raise taxes. Countries default because their political processes bring them to the point where the people in power decide, for whatever reason, not to pay the government’s debts.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-sto...l-crisis-looms/

In an interview Wednesday, Bill Gross, co-founder of the California-based Pacific Investment Management Company, or Pimco, said continued inaction on the budget deficit could lead to an erosion of wealth. “The negative repercussions would be a lower dollar, higher inflation, and artificially low interest rates,” he said. “All surreptitiously pick the pockets of investors.”

“The U.S. can’t and won’t default on its debt,” he said. “But if you buy U.S. Treasuries today you will be receiving a pittance relative to what you can get [buying] bonds in Canada or bonds in Germany.

Whether Gross is correct remains to be seen. But the Pimco co-founder is certainly influential. His decision in March to sell all of his fund’s U.S. Treasury bonds generated considerable buzz on Wall Street, though the move, he said, was related to price, not credit, and investors ultimately did not react in fits and starts.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 12 2011, 09:56 PM

I'll be very afraid if we rely too much on property and construction. If "Perfect Storm" were to come as predicted, all these will be swept away.

It is correct to predict that the economy would be collapsing in the order of Rate-->Share-->Job-->Car-->Prop

When the government senses any incoming trouble, the first thing they do is to control the rate through monetary policy and thus the Rate.

When the problem is beyond control, it will strike panic at the share market. Due to the volatile behaviour of the share market, the share holder is afraid that their share price will drop very quickly and therefore they quickly sell it all the shares they have. For the small share holder, it is easy for them to let go because it is not a huge investment. Note that if any company wants to sell any share, it takes only one day for the transaction to be perfected.

When there share price is going down, nobody would want to plan for the development or investment. Upstream companies would not announce any new project or investment and therefore it affects the down stream companies. Therefore they need to start firing people because production is reduced like wise the service is not needed. Note that it takes one month to three months to sack/fire a person.

When people is being sacked/fired, their biggest commitment is usually car/prop. Once they default payment, the bank would start to issue notice of default and threaten to take back the car. This process would normally takes another minimum 2 months for it to happen. When given choice, people would want to retain their property rather than the car because there are other means of transportations when there is larger penalty if you default in a mortgage payment.

Lastly people let go of their house/property. If the situation is very bad, lots of people would be selling their house in the same time. When the market is flooded with auctions houses and cheaper property prices, it is not easy to get buyer and cash is the king. People would take their time to make decision because they are spoiled with lots of offers. And since property is always deem to be a valuable investment of all time, there would always be people that are willing to buy and thus support the price. Nevertheless, it really takes time for any one deal to be perfected at the tough time.

All in all, I believe that it is logical and correct to predict that the market should be collapsing in the manner as stated above. However, finance and economy is not that straight forward and simple as we want it to be. Not even the smartest in the world is able to relieve the richest country out of the trap of the financial crisis.

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...7547&sec=nation

My oh... my, we are comparing our own dear country with a foreign country!! And some feel that they get better treatment when they are in foreign land!!

It's like saying other people parent treat me better than my own parent.

While our patriotism towards the country is unquestionable.

I see the big picture as such:-

Individual opinion and racism -- How an individual view and opinion towards racism is very much an individual thing. The country could not stop one individual or punish him if he is racist as long as he does not offend the law of the country.

Government policy -- However government policy is extremely important and obvious whether the governmental policy is bias or racist.

However, since we are all born into this world. The choice is for us to make. If we do not feel comfortable, then we should change and make selection. Or strife for better chance to have better options. If the company does not treat us good, we leave. If the country is not treating us good, we can also choose to leave. And if we choose to stay and fight for our future generation, we state our points and take our actions to help fulfil the dream. In all cases, be positive and inspirational!!

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 14 2011, 06:44 PM

I have my fair share of working in Malaysia and oversea.

Am struggling to continue living in my dear country or to leave.

Economy and income wise - I'm ok. I do not think I will have any financial problem living in Malaysia as I am quite disciplined in keeping to my planned budget. However a lot of people is complaining that they do not earn enough and merely surviving. While I pity them, I am also worry about their future. The statistic reported in newspaper pertaining to average income is also not encouraging.

Security and crime rate - Personally, I judge that the security in our country is not good. Too many crime reports in the newspaper. And averagely almost everyone has encountered at least once feeling being threatened, unsafe and etc. Personally, I have few times close encounter although so far I am not hurt or lose any money. Forgot my hand phone once in the toilet, go back no more. Being chased by a car once. Being threatened 2 times to give money by gangsters. Being stopped by a gang of motorist looking for someone that beat their member. Witnessed a few times lady being robbed of their hand bags. Own mother got robbed while I'm riding at the back but robber are not successful. Car being bang by gangsters but do not want to admit their fault. This is just my personal encounters. More stories from my friends.

Governance of the country - We all contribute our fair share of taxes in various forms to the country for government to operate and develop the country. I judge the efficiency of the government through (1)Good and fair policy(able to help and provide real assistance to the citizens), (2)Follow up with Good implementation, (3)Able to upgrade the country and make the country competitive in international arena and (4)Money spent wisely. If I were to give a rating on the performance, it would be the followings:-

-Road and transport department --> Poor
-Education department --> Acceptable(putting quota system aside)
-Foreign ministry --> Poor(oversea business friendly?)
-Finance --> Poor(money wisely spent)
-Housing and development --> Poor(affordable housing?)
-Security --> Poor
-Defence --> Yet to be known(although we purchase lots of weapon)
-Immigration --> Poor(too many foreign workers problems)

Future of the country - It is my sincere prayer that the governance of our country can improve so that if I decide to stay, my children would enjoy and stay happily in this beautiful country. However, the future that I'm currently seeing in not that bright. However, it's not that we totally kaput, there is still time for us to make changes. What say you and how do you rate?

What happen if Malaysia property were to drop in the same magnitude? RM1.3M drop to RM0.975, a slash of whopping RM325K. There goes his BMW.

Your friend is a good payer to continue serve the loan even though the property price has dropped.

Luckily the house I bought early this year has appreciated. Some cushion for the price to drop and I have planned the whole finance of the house.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 15 2011, 06:42 PM

Hello friend, give yourself and everybody a break and don't be so provocative. Everybody deserves to voice their opinion and nobody says that you are wrong when they defend their own. It's not wrong to go to Malaysian church or Asian church when they are in oversea because things will take time to change. Malaysia is multi racial country and all the races comes from different parts of the world previously and what is your opinion regarding Malaysian status now? Did all the races blend all? We got to be open minded and instil positive thoughts. A lot of time when the world changes, some would still insist on getting on with their own lifestyle of not having liquor, smoking,dancing, partying & etc. Does it mean they won't be able to assimilate well into the 21st century? Obviously no. Peace brother.

Read from newspaper few days ago that the property in China Major city has dropped for about 5% and it is estimated to drop further in the near future. This is because Chinese government would be adjusting the Rates some more.

Read from newspaper today that Singapore property has slowed down compared to the previous quarter and asia investors have shifted their attention to the property in US,UK and etc.

I would think that we think that gather all these facts so that we could predict what would happen to our own country.

Please contribute if you have more info. Thanks!

One question, would the end of QE2 in End June 2011 affects the property price in Asia?

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 16 2011, 03:33 PM

There is thundering sound. It will rain soon.

What izzit bad for you?

I think the property is going bad soon......

For you, it's already going bad?

While we are happy and excited with what we see, hear and feel, let's have some data, statistic, reports to reinforce our belief.

Do not forget that before the year 1997 crash, everything in Malaysia is going full throttle. It is the same case with Dubai as well.

And before the dot com burst, people also is having such optimism that it will keeping on growing with stop. There're simply too many of such examples.

Like what the word "crash" implies, it comes when it is least expected.

Therefore let's see what is the fundamental behind first, before we conclude. Agree?

Let's start with Nouriel Roubini’s prediction

http://www.financeasia.com/News/261139,pre...17s-future.aspx

In China today, investment contributes roughly half the country’s economic growth, which Roubini says is unsustainable.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 21 2011, 09:24 PM

If I'm the banker, I would also be on the conservative side. Since the housing loan demand is good and not lack of customer. The fact is this move is especially dangerous to the uninformed buyers. They are overly possessed by the sure appreciation of the property that they stretch their limit beyond own capacity. In this case, they are overly exposed, leveraged and extremely vulnerable and sensitive to any economy downturn. While in the same time, the new launch is reaching unprecedented high pulling along the sub-sales property. Through time, all greedy buyers would be pulled beyond their baseline and when the market crashes, the bank is still able to recover since they are on the conservative side(this would be good for the 'buy-low' investors. The chinese says, the appetite of man is so big that even snake can swallow the elephant.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 21 2011, 09:37 PM

In Malaysia & current context, I would say that the main cause for the property price appreciation is speculation.

Inflation & scarcity of land could make property price to appreciate but in the current context, it is not the main cause.

This is evident in Malaysia history especially before year 2008. When our oil price goes up, property price appreciates very little only.

We have been yelling scarcity of land in Klang Valley for years, why is it that now it would become the main cause of property price appreciation?

Scarcity of land causing appreciation will only happen when Demand greatly outnumbers Supply. Are we in such a scenario?

However, it is true to say that inflation would affect affordability. We would have less disposable income to buy property. Therefore, it could cause the property to

go down as well.

---

Added on June 22, 2011, 3:15 pmDear Lucerne,

Actually I'm also hoping that it will go up. However, I do not think that the current trend is sustainable. We trip when we run too fast.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 22 2011, 03:15 PM

I do hope that our government has got a risk mitigation plan should things go really bad.

Judging from current scenario, I would strongly believe that the contribution of property sector to our GDP has increased a lot over the years. How great the effect if things go really bad? Somebody can share their prediction?

In 1997, the investment portfolio of the public is more distributed in share market and property. The daily hot topic those days are which share to buy and it involves the bottom most hierarchy level all the way to the top executive. When there is a crash, the property price drops about 10% to 15% depending on the type of property(link house drops the least I believe). Salary drops, bonus cut and the market is dominated by gloomy atmosphere. For the rest of the years, it's mainly government projects playing the main actor.

It is not easy to predict. Even the famous Nouriel Roubini’s prediction, the poll result is but 50:50

It's always very RESPONSIBLE for us to take cautious stand less we fall beyond recovery. This is the warning to Millions of American before the tragedy strikes.

Individually we have to equip ourselves with financial knowledge, sensitive about the global economy condition, country economy condition and full information about our own investment so that we can make maximum return during good times and still come out unharmed during bad times.

Global economic condition that we need to pay attention is QE3, FED Meeting today, Europe sovereign debts issues, Japanese recovery, China growth and the growth of Asia & South East Asia.

Country condition that we need to pay attention is Malaysia economic fundamentals, Malaysian General Election by end of the year? Investment of Middle East in Malaysia and Middle East condition.

Once individual is equipped with necessary knowledge, he should be responsible himself to filter all wrong information and consider the correct information.

Let's continue to debate until we get more and more knowledgeable and able to SEE things clearer each day. And in the end turn out to be champions and in the same time, our country is also the champion.

I have got better offer than 2.4 from 2 different bankers and it is during beginning of the year.

For a RM6K monthly income, 4.0% interest rates and loan tenure of 30 years, bank can loan you a total amount of RM630,000.00 and a possible house price of RM690K. It's more than 9 times annual income. However as one grow older, he/she would entitle less loan for the same annual income.

3-4 times of one's annual income is a safe guide for property purchase. However, many have stretched to maximum limit or at least more than 3-4 times of the annual income.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 22 2011, 06:17 PM

Our PaPa in the house is waiting for problem to arise then only try to solve it.

When the children see the problem and make noise, they ask you to shut up.

When got money, our Papa will spend and spend. And tell us not to question how he uses the money.

No money that time, ask from the children.

However, the children still say that he is good and responsible Papa and he takes care of the house.

This post has been edited by GangHo: Jun 22 2011, 09:49 PM