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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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kh8668
post Apr 7 2011, 07:52 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 7 2011, 07:48 PM)
good example.
but just to add on there are exceptions. i remember when chinese tea was 10 cents per glass. then 20 cents, then 30 cents. when it cost 50 cents per glass, i remember myself boycotting a drink during meals for the longest of time. eventually, not jus myself but everybody starts drinking chinese tea as it is still one of the cheapest drink during meals.
how much is a cup of chinese tea now and what will be a glass costs in the future? i dunno but i'm hoping the price will come down by heart, but my brain is telling me 'dream on'.
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Hmm...not a good example la....if you do not want to eat durian, you still got plenty of choices e.g manggo/apple/peach/etc to fill your stomach.

if you did not want to buy house/apartment/condo/flat/lcflat because of expensive, then you might need to consider buying sleeping bag/camping shelters to cover your head.

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kh8668
post Apr 7 2011, 08:51 PM

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Yeah
Actually there are still a lot affordable housing. Don't be so picky then sure get one

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 7 2011, 08:58 PM
kh8668
post Apr 8 2011, 08:38 PM

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yeah...will drop will drop...maybe 5% - 10%? and up 10% to 30% lagi...before drop 5%..kekekeke
kh8668
post Apr 8 2011, 10:49 PM

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tomorrow the edge property forum 2011 topics:

Will housing property prices drop soon?
MRT: Real estate hotspots
Talking shops: Investing in shop units

hehehe....go to listen whether housing property prices frop soon or not?
kh8668
post Apr 11 2011, 09:02 PM

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Hmm...by that time, we should get two or three generations loan packages.

who knows, right? however, everybody 's aim is to get very own shelter.

work hard buddy
kh8668
post Apr 13 2011, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 13 2011, 11:51 AM)
wow, you praying hard for "petrol + OPR + Electricity + Food raise at same time" ???  hmm.gif

so you guys actually prefer high inflation just to counter property prices. hhhmmmm... interesting people we have here.
if that is the case, you want property prices to plunge now also can, form a support group and start a riot/protest.
do it everyday and guarantee all property price doesn't just drop, it will CRASH!  thumbup.gif
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Yesterday, it's my first time heard my colleague (foreigner) said Living in Malaysia is damn EXPENSIVE...LOL

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 13 2011, 11:58 AM
kh8668
post Apr 13 2011, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(cleo87 @ Apr 13 2011, 02:35 PM)
dont misunderstand. we are praying for a price adjustment of 15-20% or at least stagnant increase for awhile. some places the price increase by 20k in two months, how hard we work also cannot catch up la. nobody wants an economy crash. that would be bad news all over


Added on April 13, 2011, 2:47 pm

wahh...... that aggressive? then our banks are very very careful d
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Can see from this chart

user posted image


Approval of loan application is actually gradually dropping from 60+% in previous years to approximately 50% in 2010.

kh8668
post Apr 13 2011, 07:26 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Apr 13 2011, 06:44 PM)
Please recheck ur math too.

30k in 40yrs become 800k.

6.7% x 2 = 13.4% increase per yr?  hmm.gif
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8.55% per annum ler

http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/disco..._calculator.htm


kh8668
post Apr 14 2011, 08:58 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 14 2011, 08:39 AM)
U still choose to believe property developers talk? Sure prices will go up over a certain percentage in future. Nobody is denying that. But why the hell are these damn developers charging much high rates psf NOW??  vmad.gif

If prices are going up by about 10% then why the hell are the current prices of new launches higher by about 20-30%???

That's the question!
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I think Sp Setia boss is trying to say new property price will be up 10% or more on the current price. Mean we need to pay more.
kh8668
post Apr 14 2011, 09:06 AM

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Maybe we need QS to tell us the truth on the building costs. Land cost is higher now we pretty sure.
kh8668
post Apr 15 2011, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(tigana @ Apr 15 2011, 07:54 PM)
If you look at the SP Setia financial report Q4 2010. They report revenue of RM558M versus gross profit (after minus construction cost etc) as RM159M. This translates to gross profit % of 28.5%. 1 year ago it was 20.1%. The 28.5% margin is after land cost, construction cost, materials, etc. So looks like the gross margin is improving. If there is a demand, they will increase the price.
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.....SP Setia purchased its land bank long time ago e.g. Setia Alam land at RM3.50psf. Considered this price at the current market, it is cheap. and recent property market rally, for sure profits margin shows improvement.

This is so called the risks and holding costs to the developers, and their risks are being paid now.

Common sense, Although developers purchased a piece of land at a cheaper price tag long time ago, do you think they will build cheapo houses and sell to you at the current market? (assumed that the location is good and easily accessible)

user posted image

user posted image

user posted image

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 15 2011, 10:10 PM
kh8668
post Apr 15 2011, 11:48 PM

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No worries...

Kajang/Semenyih/Sg Long will be the next
kh8668
post Apr 15 2011, 11:58 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 15 2011, 11:56 PM)
any reason?
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you will see more and more developments (townships) there in next few years, all the way to nilai.


Added on April 15, 2011, 11:59 pmand I found this good stuff http://tlcollect.com/ve/ZZ62BB74t856561FT953 http://www.digi-flips.com/digiflips/fob/kf...i-flipbook.html

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 16 2011, 12:27 AM
kh8668
post Apr 16 2011, 09:56 AM

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To buy a home or wait
Saturday, April 16, 2011 the star online
FIRST time home buyers who are daunted by soaring prices of residential properties in the Klang Valley should not wait in the hope of a softening in the property market.

Prospective new home buyers may want to take note of rising construction costs that are driving up property prices, as well as possible further interest rate hikes in view of the consumer price inflation hitting a 22-month high of 2.9% in February.

On Wednesday, SP Setia Bhd president and chief executive officer Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin said he expected home prices to rise by at least 10% this year, depending on location, to reflect higher construction costs.

“Property prices will not drop as the costs do not allow this anymore,” said Liew during the Invest Malaysia 2011 conference in Kuala Lumpur.

Meanwhile, a recent report from Hwang DBS Vickers Research says that as a proven inflation hedge, property should remain in demand even with potential interest rate hikes.

The report says while it is believed that the 70% loan-to-value cap managed to cap speculative activities to a certain extent, strong underlying demand from first-second home owners and upgraders has continued to support recent property sales, even at new benchmark prices.

The 70% loan-to-value ratio satisfies Bank Negara's ruling (announced last November) which requires buyers of third and subsequent residential properties to fork out 30% downpayment.

Also, a recent survey by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (Mier) on residential property in the country says an astounding 61% of housing developers who responded to the survey had adjusted their prices of their residential properties upwards in the first quarter of this yearthe highest proportion garnered since the third quarter of 2008.

None of the respondents in the survey had lowered their prices.

However, the Mier survey report concludes that pressure exerted by high costs of raw raw materials, fears of rising oil prices, and the interest rate factor could all combine and impact negatively on the sector in the coming months.

“This is likely to impinge on the future growth of outlying areas, and may also dampen the revival process of developments

that are currently suffering from low take-up rates, low population inflow and an overhang problem,” said the report.

Short-term outlook

The Mier report pointed out that “the short-term outlook for the residential property sector looks calm generally”.

Financial coaches and planners contacted by StarBizWeek also say that first time home buyers should not sit on the sidelines.

“There is no certainty that if you wait, you can get a cheaper residential unit. A property loan is long term. Even half a percentage point rise in interest rate will have a major effect for the home buyer,” said CTLA Financial Planners Sdn Bhd managing director Mike Lee.

Whitman Independent Advisors Sdn Bhd managing director Yap Ming Hui shares a similar opinion.

However, Yap cautions, “Waiting for a few months before making a buying decision may not make much difference in the purchasing costs, depending on the location and type of property the buyer is looking at.”

Carol Yip, chief executive officer of Abacus Advisory Sdn Bhd, also advises home buyers not to be too hasty.

“They must always look at their own financial positions and the affordability factor,” said Yip.

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 16 2011, 09:57 AM
kh8668
post Apr 16 2011, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(macyhouse @ Apr 16 2011, 09:46 PM)
KLCC Maybank ... got two nice lady sitting outside with booth selling service apartment in Shah Alam ...
Ahhh ... the good old times  nod.gif
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what message you're trying to send us?
kh8668
post Apr 16 2011, 10:28 PM

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Traditionally, loan applications in Nov, Dec, Jan & Feb are trending a drop each year. March, April and May (2011)figures are important as it will tell how serious the implication of LTV 70%.

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 16 2011, 10:32 PM
kh8668
post Apr 18 2011, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Apr 18 2011, 10:07 PM)
the way i see it,
buying properties are good for hedging against inflation but not a good investment in long run. Property price now are way too high & abnormal even for 5 figure income.
As time pass, properties will lost it value if

1. Better transport (why need to buy KV area when can travel fast & efficient like in Japan)

UNFORTUNATELY MALAYSIA IS NOT JAPAN, JAPAN IS NOT MALAYSIA. EVEN THOUGH WITH BETTER TRANSPORTATION, PROPERTY PRICE STILL WILL BE HEADING NORTH, JUST LIKE SINGAPORE, AND HONGKONG. IT IS NO FUN USING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION IN MALAYSIA AT LEAST NOW AND ALSO FORESEEABLE IN FUTURE.



2. Education level improve (Improve knowledge & income but will produce less offspring or even happy being single = demand low)

BUYING PROPERTY NOT LIMITED TO MARRIED COUPLE. EVEN NOW SINGLE / "DIAMOND WONG TIGER" (LOL) ALSO KEEP BUYING THEIR NEST. THUS IN FUTURE, MORE AND MORE SMALL NEST (400SF TO 600SF) WILL BE BUILT. FIRST, TO COPE WITH HIGH COST. SECOND, TO MAKE IT MORE AFFORDABLE TO PEOPLE.


3. Technology advancement (If in 10 years, technology give u benefit to work form home but with no drop of performance)

ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY ALWAYS WELCOME AND MAKE PEOPLE LIFE BETTER. HOWEVER, WHETHER ONE PERFORM OR NOT, HAVE TO DEPEND ON INDIVIDUAL EFFORTS. HOWEVER, I DON'T SEE THIS WILL AFFECT HOUSE DEMAND?


All these thing can happens or already happening now...it just need time to be a norms going forward
Remember this "a good properties investment only realised if someone wanted to make become a home"
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MY OPINION- FOOD, DRINK AND SHELTER ARE AMONGST THE MUST THINGS TO HUMAN BEING.

FOOD PRICE INCREASE;
DRINK AS WELL;
WHY NOT SHELTER?

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 18 2011, 10:34 PM
kh8668
post Apr 18 2011, 11:10 PM

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QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Apr 18 2011, 10:52 PM)
the way i see it,
buying properties are good for hedging against inflation but not a good investment in long run. Property price now are way too high & abnormal even for 5 figure income.
As time pass, properties will lost it value if

1. Better transport (why need to buy KV area when can travel fast & efficient like in Japan)

UNFORTUNETALY MALAYSIA IS NOT JAPAN, JAPAN IS NOT MALAYSIA. EVEN THOUGH WITH BETTER TRANSPORTATION, PROPERTY PRICE STILL WILL BE HEADING NORTH, JUST LIKE SINGAPORE, AND HONGKONG. IT IS NO FUN USING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION IN MALAYSIA AT LEAST NOW AND ALSO FORESEEABLE IN FUTURE.

[COLOR=blue]SG & HK are diff in a sense of size limitation, you just can't grow land. If you are old enough, you will know in year 1970-80, stay in klang n work in KL are impossible but now, some are stay in Seremban work in KL is do-able. Better road connectivity & cars can drive faster are here. Things will improve in future, maybe later but definitely will arrive.[COLOR=blue]

2. Education level improve (Improve knowledge & income but will produce less offspring or even happy being single = demand low)

BUYING PROPERTY NOT LIMITED TO MARRIED COUPLE. EVEN NOW SINGLE / "DIAMOND WONG TIGER" (LOL) ALSO KEEP BUYING THEIR NEST. THUS IN FUTURE, MORE AND MORE SMALL NEST (400SF TO 600SF) WILL BE BUILT. FIRST, TO COPE WITH HIGH COST. SECOND, TO MAKE IT MORE AFFORDABLE TO PEOPLE.
[COLOR=blue]I don't about you, if the trend continue i believe everyone will own more than 1 properties. remember only 1 person or 1 family need A home. A couple can stay 1 home, not 2 house. IF 20M become a couple, then it means 10M homes, not 20M.[COLOR=blue]
3. Technology advancement (If in 10 years, technology give u benefit to work form home but with no drop of performance)

ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY ALWAYS WELCOME AND MAKE PEOPLE LIFE BETTER. HOWEVER, WHETHER ONE PERFORM OR NOT, HAVE TO DEPEND ON INDIVIDUAL EFFORTS. HOWEVER, I DON'T SEE THIS WILL AFFECT HOUSE DEMAND?
[COLOR=blue] Like i said, in '70 ppl do biz within township, '80 & '90 between states & currently now, we are doing biz international (biz no longer need big big warehouse to store products, almost all using JIT method if possible)
Most of my clients don't need A Class Office Locationeven they can afford it.
They can be a shoplot in suburb area, nearer to the place they live & the staff live. There are already some MNC option to do 3days at home 2 day at office arrangement for non-essential operation staffs.  [COLOR=blue]

All these thing can happens or already happening now...it just need time to be a norms going forward
Remember this "a good properties investment only realised if someone wanted to make become a home"
MY CONCLUSION- FOOD, DRINK AND SHELTER ARE AMONGST THE MUST THINGS TO HUMAN BEING.

FOOD PRICE INCREASE;
DRINK AS WELL;
WHY NOT SHELTER?[COLOR=blue] Shelter needed is still for A home, not 100 properties [COLOR=blue]


Added on April 18, 2011, 11:02 pm
if you do ask around those already retired ppls, if you will notice they want to downgrade to  smaller house as all their kids grow up & move out. Reason = simpler to take care the house tongue.gif
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yeah....You now A HOME, then your children = Many HOMES

when we old time coming, old folk HOME is waiting for us!..LOL

p/s: I still see my boss purchased BIG HOME

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 18 2011, 11:12 PM
kh8668
post Apr 19 2011, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Apr 19 2011, 09:38 AM)
depend on which kind of boss you talking about
if he is yr immediate superior & well verse in financial planning, then why not buy if he see the needs to use bigger home
if he the boss of the company & for investment purpose, from what i know now, most of the bosses that i came to know are using the company cashflow to "goreng" properties & this is a dangerous situation for you as an employee. If his biz got into trouble, i think you will know who will suffer first & last. sweat.gif
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No worries, bro.

my boss not that kind of speculator in residential properties.

anyway, feeling sick to predict/gestimate when property market will burst. No ending discussion and no new points of views.

rclxub.gif
kh8668
post Apr 19 2011, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 19 2011, 10:07 AM)
well said  nod.gif

the fact is simple.  We need only a home, not 30 homes. When one bought 30 units in one shot, it is clear this is for speculation, that's why the high vacancy rate.

But we must understand that prices can be easily pushed up by speculating activities just like stock market and anything that is not supported by strong fundamental could collapse easily.
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Those purchased 30 homes are taking business risks.

Not many can afford to buy house, however, those still need shelter to cover their heads. Rent a house/room/shared-room are their options.

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