HDD in the limelight
The disastrous massive flood waves in Thailand had created both sadness and happiness. How contradictory for this catastrophe to happen. On the sad note, families that had been hard hit with the waves of killer waters had been mourning for the unbearable losses of loves ones, young and old, not taking into count on the infrastructure destroyed, houses, factory, livestock, and etc. Company that had been affected are facing a tensing period to restructure the whole operation and trying to bring back the normal operation as soon as possible to reduce the losses that will surely be a great impact to them.
Thailand is one of the main hub in the manufacturing of HDD, supplying them to the major parts of the HDD eaters, like US. As of the recent hit, HDD manufacturing is just trying it's best to meet 2/3 of the demand of the world, which will definitely drive prices of HDD soaring up into the skies.
A quick report from CNET back dated to 20 November 2011, the prices of HDD had soared as high as 3 fold from the normal retail price for the Seagate Barracuda 1TB 7200RPM, from $49.99 to a stunner of $149.99, in weeks.
Guardian had been signalling that the shortage of the HDD might penetrate further into the 2012, not erasing the possibilities of it going further than 2012 as well, as the digital world continue to roll faster than what the supplies can meet. There is no doubt that things are going paperless, data centers are set up for storage and tracking purposes, what more about the current economy that is heading for another bullish run should the major influence splash in more liquidity to motivate the market to drive further.
To add on the bruise, computerworld had indicated the shutting down/partial shut down of Western Digital and Toshiba HDD factory, that had further slash shipments to 125 million from a 173 million
As of my own quick outlook, with the rising population, and with things going digitized into servers, banks setting up more DC for storage, the demand of HDD, already in a constant hike will be most likely seeing a hike with some growth in the speed, which indicates why the supplies of HDD might penetrate further than 2012.
After a series of the broad market outlook, what do we have here.
Our local company in the line ups are JCY, Unisem and ENG. (Still working on other unexplored counter).
JCY - Considered here as the most favorable counter as they are the least affected by the flood, which had enabled them to gain a steep advantage over their opponent, ENG, not a x2 or x3 advantage, but might hit up to x4 or above since ENG need to come back from the destruction, which is hampering their production. With the latest action taken by JCY to approve the 300 million capital expenditure to bulk up further, I would see it as a critical wise decision into taking advantage of the whole market, and a step to penetrate deeper in the market. Consider JCY approving 300 million capital expenditure to meet the demand, I would personally think that this might not be a 1 year affair after all.
Bone's TP: RM1.40
Unisem - Do not forget the organs of the HDD, which is why the crazy hike from Unisem lately. Unisem, manufacturer of ICs for the HDD are as important as HDD manufacturer. Although Unisem does not benefit directly from the massive flood, however, this is just a chance too good for them not to miss out the whole fun. Who doesn't like to rub salt to wound and see people cry?
Bone's TP: RM1.35
ENG - Of all 3, ENG is the underdog now, consider them coming back from the pile of mess, and licking their wounds while waiting for recovery. How fast ENG could be able to make a come back really relies on the management and their solution now. Although the HDD market is booming up with crazy prices, should ENG not able to come back in a quick manner, we will not see ENG going up, but going stagnant or southern bound because of the great opportunity losses in the limited time frame. ENG could be a dangerous bet, however, might be rewarding on the other side, should they able to come back quickly from that pile of big mess.
In short, do you want to ride on this HDD effect? It is up to your very own choices again.
Cheers and happy trading.
Bonescythe