People now buying iPads. Does iPad carry the HD that JCY makes?

1. how many technology stocks in klse with revenue of 500 millon plus at rm 0.900 to rm 1.00 ?
2. they have plants in thai, philipine, singapore, and of course 2 in malaysia.
3. will the demand of hdd obsolete due to the flash drive from apple ?
4. they have new customers from samsung and hitachi.

some said that, since everyone is so fearful of this JCY, it is also a chance for you to make a decent profit from it. but, it is a high risk gamble. make your own decision of to sell, or to buy, or to hold.

good luck.

whats the story..just because their net profit fell abit...means the shares drop over 25%?...

fundamental: cyclical industry and it will turn to a good time.

technical: never break EMA, and still in downtrend. Not a buy signal

conspiracy: previous post mentioned about CW by OSK and CIMB. In this case, it will not let the CW in the money until March. Dont buy now

i guess this stock is worth watching until 2012 Q1. since analyst said that there might be a shortage of HDD. perhaps RM1.00 ??? XO

To make a better analysis, perhaps can check around the HDD mkt in Low Yat and also whether the HDD prices has come down.. Tht is the most straight forward survey....

It was commented by most industry players in semi-cond industry. U look at Eng Tek. Why they want to revise lower price for the privatisation? Bcz all the machinaries are gone in Thai n it becomes scrap value. Logically speaking, when the whole plant is destroyed, it takes time to clean up, find a more suitable place, import the machinaries from Japan, recover the production lines.... I think 6 mths given is a conservative forecast which has not included the opportunity cost. Any hiccups will affect the supplies... N not to be forgotten, the earnings are always the laggard to reflect wht happened in the past.. Means that although it takes at least 6 mths to recover, the earnings will only be reflected 9 mths later (tht time u will see those players like Unisem, Eng Tek start to show improved earnings) ... AT the meantime, JCY would be the sole player to gain most due to Thai flooding, stronger USD dollar, no impairement loss due to unafffected plants, stronger HDD prices.
Last but not least, last year, JCY made a loss, so, anything to increase, will be a low-based effect. Tht's y in previous quarter, their earnings improved 1900% or 19x.

 

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"The price of HDD has peak during last year end, and slowly come down."

HDD high prices will remain until 2014: 

Provide 2 examples  over the last 12 months of companies which have reported 100x increase in earnings where the share price has hardly moved?

Finally if you are that certain about JCY, please let everyone know how high/low  the share price will go so they can make an informed decision .

Consider me ill informed, can you name 2 such companies that experienced 100x increase in earnings and share price didnt go up so I can compare?
I can tell you with 200% certainty that the share price dropped on the day 8th Feb and has been since that day because our friends at OSK needed to press
down the price for thier JCY-CD expiry on  27th Feb and have been keeping the price low since 27h Feb to collect cheap to prepare for the JCY-CE which they just released last week. So I totally disagree that the market has priced in the Q1 results.  If anything, the price tested 1.50 on the Q1 results and has not accounted for the future earnings of the company because the market does not know what JCY will be earning in Q2, Q3, Q4 etc. What you are saying is that essentially it doesnt matter whether JCY makes 200m or 20m for each quarter Q2,Q3, Q4 the share price will stay the same because the market is a "forward mechanism" and has already factored this. Totally disagree.

There will be a gradual drop in HDD prices with time but the shortage will remain throughout 2012 and into 2013 (refer to Seagate Steve Luczo articles).

Ipad and tablet?

So do you currently store all your downloaded movies and HD movies on your iPad and tablet?
And where does the Ipad and tablet get all its media content from? Data centres, server farms etc. These centres must use HDD because SDD is prohibitively
expensive (15x more then HDD). The explosion of portable devices is only going to fuel the growth of HDD even more due to the increase demand for media
content. Ipad and tablet, iphone et are all that, portable devices for portabilty and and not real storage devices. Do you keep your library of movies on your tablet or do you simply copy what you need over to the tablet from the HDD  so you can take it with you?

Also picture this, when you are in the office, do you do your work on Ipad/iphone/tablet or the PC/Laptop? I have not seen any big organisations to date who have replaced all their PC/laptops with Ipad/tablet to work on. Portable devices are jsut that, for portabilty, nothing more.

HDD facing threat from SSD?

Unless there is a breakthrough technology in the next few years which can reduce the cost of manufacturing SDD to a point where it is 10-15 times cheaper then today, then HDD will always have a place.  Each technology has its own purpose, one for portabilty (SSD) and the other real storage (HDD).

- Disagree. Price has been maniuplated by OSK as mentioned above and got nothing to do with JCY results or its fair value or market anticipation.
If what you are saying is true, that means the market is ignoring the fact that JCY is spending 150m this year and 150m next year (to buy additional machines) to increase production by 40%. This capex was announced when the profit guidance came out way before the Q1 results were released. This means JCY achieved 164m in Q1 without increasing prodcution by 40%. If they can already achieve 164m in Q1 without additional machines and their expected production levels is going to be less then Q1, why bother wasting 150m this year to buy new machines to increase  production by 40%.  refer to the profit guidance, the Q1 results and google to confirm these facts please. 

Share prices are manipulated everyday by big players or instititutions who have an interest to see the share price go up or down. They (manipulators) can draw a head and shoulder, cat, mouse  or chicken on the TA charts if they want to, to make people believe the prices are going a certain way. As for JCY, the public has been spooked (how many people out there know how institutions work and how they can manipulate prices- not many so they naturally think market has dertermined fair value when it has not), the share price can only go up between now and the Q2 results if other funds/ other institutions come in. Otherwise public confidence can only be restored closer to the Q2 results.

How do you know that? Provide supprting facts and evidence please, anyone can make generalisations and assumptions. Eveything you have said thus far has
not been backed with facts and evidence.  iam still waiting on examples from you of the 2 companies which made 100x increase in earnings but share price did not move.

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As investor who care the price is manipulated?

It appears Iam wasting my time here with you. By replying to you each time, Iam giving you information in that hopes that you can take away something from this discussion but obviously Iam wasting my time. Lets be responsible and provide facts and evidence to back up our claims please (instead of making generalisations, assumptions etc).

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Added on March 27, 2012, 6:03 pm

According to Cherroy investors dont care about price manipulation.  Obviously people do care Cherroy,  hence this question.

Omione, theres nothing to worry about in terms of the new 60million OSK warrants (JCY-CE). The only time to worry will be a few weeks just before expiry date in March 2013. Also this is a 2 for 1 deal which means OSK have hedged (collected at cheap price over the last few weeks since they pressed price down from feb 8) at least 30 million  JCY shares to pay for the warrants when it expires in march 2013. This means their ability to press price down again in March 2013 will be less then in Feb 2012 because the last warrant they issued was 1 for 1 at 80 million warrants so they had to hold min 80m JCY shares.

However, having said that, I dont think they are done playing with the price yet for at least another week or 2. So the answer to your question is no there should be no impact (once they are done playing with price over the next week or so) until march 2013.

--------------------------------
I'm still waiting for your facts and evidence to show that OSK manipulated the price to maintain it low.    Let's not accuse unless we have facts ourselves, am I right?

Facts/Evidence:

-JCY-CD expiry on 27th Feb.
- Price tested 1.50 on Feb 8th but retraced back to 1.21 by 27th Feb (JCY-CD expiry).
-Price continues to retrace back to a low of 1.07 and last week OSK announces new warrant JCY -CE and share price slowly trickles backup.
-Refer to historical price charts on tradesignum etc please during this time. I cannot be bothered pasting it here for you.
-Also please do some research on warrants and how intistitutions hedge, your lackof knoweldge is a complete waste of my time.
 
Now please give me my 2 examples of companies that have experienced 100x increase earnings and share price has not moved. Stop avoiding this question.

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HDD prices will not maintain. This is not an assumption. If you track HDD prices before the Thai flood and now, you would know that once production for every supplier comes onstream again, HDD prices will without a doubt fall again. It may not be this year, but come 2013 HDD prices will be forced down again. While 2012 will not JCY is expanding to absorb the production capacity that will be shifted out of Thailand. This is a good way to cement it's reputation as a huge HDD parts supplier. A lot can happen in 2 years.see a serious challenge from SSD market, it is catching up and growing considerably as prices of RAMs drop. Who knows in 2013/4 what will the prices of SSDs be.

sorry these generalisations/assumptions  are invalid unless you can back up these claims with facts/ evidences/ sources.
-----------------------
JCY is expanding to absorb the production capacity that will be shifted out of Thailand. This is a good way to cement it's reputation as a huge HDD parts supplier. A lot can happen in 2 years.

- A very BIG F for fail for you here and further evidence of your lack of knowledge in commenting on something you know absolutely nothing about.. JCY has already stated publicly that it intends to use 80% of the money to buy new machines. If they were shifting their production out of thailand, they dont need to buy new machines, they can simply move the machines out of thailand. And no they are not shifting anything out of thailand because their factory in Saraburi thailand sits on high ground with no threat of flooding. hence they were not impacted by the floods.

Below are facts and supporting evidence which proves you are not only wrong but do not have a clue. 

FACTS/SUPPORTING EVIDENCE.  http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/...e-19-fold-.html

"to cater for an expected increased demand from its major customers, JCY's board has approved
RM300m capital expenditure to expand its facilities in Malaysia, Thailand and China"

"Some 80% of the money will be used to buy machinery"

So I rest my case and will not be wasting anymore of my precious time because of your lackof knowledge and inability to research.

This is great discussion. I hope you guys will stay on the forum to share your knowledge. I am a serious trader. That means I am in only where the action is. Given the recent resurrection of JCY, this, I believe, is where the action is at least till Sep 2012. As a trader I do welcome manipulators, if they exist. They are generally good for business. This is my personal preference. I am sure we can agree to disagree.

Now look at these numbers:

        PE ratio          Price  
Q2    0.61  
Q3   -1.56  
Q4    1.29  
Q1    7.94    8.280         13.7          1.13
Q2    6 13.670         13.7          1.87
Q3    5 20.230         13.7          2.77
Q4    5 23.940         13.7          3.28

(Sorry for the jumbled up numbers - see pic below)
As of Dec 2011, Q1, the cumulative four quarters PE is 8.28 sen, which represents 13.7x (as of today's closing). Lets assume Q2 comes in less than Q1 at EPS 6 sen. The cum 4 Q EPS will be 13.67 sen. If the market gives it the same PE, the price should shot up to 1.87. Lets assume Q3 & Q4 EPS stabilize at 5 sen. At the same PE, price should be 2.77 and 3.28 respectively.

Of course, with all the bla, bla, bla... - market will not give JCY a 13.7x PE because earnings expansion is only temporary, etc, .... my question is: Why is OSK pricing it at only 1.60? (1.30+0.15+0.15) With their resources and experience surely they know what they are doing. Even though OSK may seem to have been caught in the JCY-CD tranche, I believe OSK was profitable.

I believe the EPS projections are conservative at least for the next 3 Qs. And at 1.60 as per OSK's pricing, the cum EPS is only 6.6x - very low for a profitable stock. Where am I missing? I don't believe stock market to be very rational in the short run. Long run, may be. But again, I am a short term player.

May I tap your brains and expertise.

Fact 1:
PC sales is lackluster, Ipad, tablet and smartphone are hot items that selling well out there.

Wrong Wrong Wrong. here are some real facts to prove that.

http://www.practicalecommerce.com/articles...-to-Exceed-PCs-

'For 2011, 364 million personal computers will be sold, says Gartner. Importantly,
468 million smartphones and 63.6 million tablets will be sold. By 2015,
Gartner estimates tablet unit sales will be 326 million, and smartphone unit sales
will be one billion. Tablet sales by 2015 are likely to roughly parallel PC sales.'
-in 2011,  364 million PCs sold as opposed to 63 million tablets.
--------------------------------

Fact 2:
HDD price is slowly going down.

- so wheres the supporting evidence to prove this fact? how much has it fallen and at what rate will it contiune to fall? theres no doubt that HDD prices will normalise in the long run but they have not gone back to their normal levels since flood.
 
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Fact 4
Share price start it upward trend around RM0.40~0.50 around Oct period, whereby Thailand flooding issue started to arise. While stock market is forward mechanism, it predicted JCY will benefit from the shutdown of HDD manufacturers in Thailand, and price may soar due to short supply, the share price did not wait until JCY reported 2000% increase in profit, only share price start to move.

- JCY did not benefit from the shutdown of HDD manufacturers in thailand. If HDD manufactuers shut down, JCywill be in deep shet. JCY benefited from the impact to its competitors who also make HDD COMPONENTS not HDD's. If the market is a "forward mechinism" ( god I love your use  of that word) then why did JCY's share price not instantly go up to 1.50 in october right after the floods? JCY's share price gradually/progessively climbed (with consisitent news of no impact, profit guidance etc) right up until Feb 8 when the  Q1 results were announced.
AND HERES SOME NIGHT READING FOR YOU WITH FACTS AND SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FROM SEAGATE AND GATNER WHICH SHOWS HDD SALES WILL CONTINUE TO GROW PAST 2020.

http://www.seagate.com/docs/pdf/corporate/...l_world_gen.pdf

Guys, Thank you all for your generous input. Yes. With regard to OSK's JCY-CE, the trade is beginning to make sense. With that I believe 2.00 is still on track by year's end or possibly earlier. But it may be a bumpy ride, as is always in a stock rally.

yes it did move, it went from 1.42 to 1.50 on the day. You said "some companies" report 100x increase in earnings and share price do not move. Its quite clear that you are saying there is more then 1 other compnay otehr then JCY which report 100x in earning and share pricedo not move. Moreover JCY share price did move from 1.42 to 1.50 on the day profit was announced so this cannot be used as an example.

Again, please provide 2 examples of compnaies which have reported 100x in earnings but share pricefailedto move. 
-------------------------------------

Rival under problematic and cannot supply, now expand and capture and market further and cement yourself even bigger market position out there, is very norm practice across business.
But what this had to do so far the discussion of HDD price may go lower in the future?

Nothing, I never disputed HDD prices may gradualy go down over the long run.

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Added on March 28, 2012, 7:41 am
If a company is making losses for 1 year, how much % in profit did they make if the following year the company makes RM1k in profit compared to last year losses. IS it 1000% profit growth? 

I dont think anyone cares about the percentage increase because like you said it means nothing hwne comparing a bad quarter with a good quarter. What people do care about is that JCY made 164m in Q1 which is more then they have made in any given quater for the last few years. What they also care about is that the company is spending 300m to buy new machines to increase productionby 40% to  cater for the increase in demand from its major customers as a result of the flood. What they also care about is the LTAs which have locked in high prices over multilple years. 
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So your 'facts and evidence' on OSK manipulating prices, is actually your opinion based on price charts on trade signum? Interesting. I'm sure the jury will be completely convinced. 
Nope, I have already provided you with the facts (JCY-CD did exist, price plunge before cd expiry did happen,  and new JCY-CE has been issued). These are not my opinion but facts. I only refered you to tradesignum to haev a look at the rice charts for reference and supporting evidence only and this did not form the basis of what I said, the facts did.

Good point.

Cheeroy, lets not beat around the bush anymore and get to the hearth of the discussion and talk about JCY share price. based on your theory that the market is a forward mech, CW issuer cannot press price, HDD prices falling and SSD taking over HDD,  what price do you think JCY will reach in 3 months?

- This totally contradicts what you said about the market being a forward mechanism. because how can the market be a forward mechanism when it is wrong?  Now you are suggesting the market is going to REACT and share price has further room to move if the sustainabilty of the earnings is proven.
Now you are saying the price can go up to the sky even in the short term? if that is the case doesnt that contradict what you are saying about 
---------------

- The price did not jump to 1.50 either right after the floods. The share price moved up progressively/gradually (from October 2011 to Feb 8 2012 -when the JCY-CD was due to expire) and reacted to news along the way..ie JCY was not impacted by floods, competitors were hit hard, world HDD shortage, HDD prices going up, JCY profit guidance etc.  The profit guidance was announced way ahead of Q1 results. and I repeat again the share price did move (from 1.42 to .150)  on the day the Q1 results were announced on Feb 8.  So I disagree that the market is forward mechanism and more so because it is prone to manipulation by big players.  The market REACTS to news and cannot factor in future events.  

----------------------

I just use common sense that current shortage of HDD and price is not sustainable.

- and what about increased volume allocations as a result of crippled competitors? Additional market share captured? will HDD makers like seagate and WD be sitting around for 8mths+ waiting for JCY's competitors to com back online so they can go back to them for component supplies? Does the forward mechanism know the answers? no so how can the market be a forward mechanism if it doesnt know and has not factored this in.

----------------

I only know long term pricing of a stock cannot run away its core fundamental.

- Agreed which is why JCY price still has a long way to climb.

---------

One final point on the market being a forward mechanism. If indeed this is true, why bother buying shares at all, because the market has already factored all prices in for the future and all share prices should not move in the future.

Let me put this to you, how did the market know JCY was not impacted unless JCY made the official statement? Rumours? if rumours it still occured after the fact, therefore still reactive to events.
----------------------------------------

Why share price doesn't move up now? Good result mah, share price cannot factor in future, must look at present announcement only, or always being pressed down by CW issuer? 

- I already explained this with examples and evidence. In fact I can even tell exactly how many JCY shares OSK had on hand as of last friday my friend  (and no they have not reached 30m). I think we are just going around in circles. Let time be the judge and we will revisit this discussion in 6 months and see where the share price is by then and see who is right.

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Added on March 29, 2012, 5:32 pm
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Buying share is about get a share of profit made by the company, this is the basic of investing in share.
Why always care about share price?

- Really so people do not buy shares in the hopes that its value goes up? 

Anyway, I think we can both go on for days/weeks about this so like I said, Lets wait 6 months, come back and we revisit this discussion.

-----------------------

- Wrong again. JCY has multiple factories in malaysia (including Johor) and a factory in  Saraburi Thailand which was not impacted by the floods because it was on high ground. And Yes you do have to wait for JCY to make statement because its their factory, otherwise who else would know whether it was actually impacted?

From Q4 2011 results: http://www.jcyinternational.com/images/pdf...11%20-%20q4.pdf

Section B2: "The recent devastating flood in Thailand has affected a number of HDD vendors and component suppliers resulting in a
global shortage of HDD supply. JCY’s factory in Saraburi Thailand is fortunate to have avoided the recent flood in Thailand
and is able to maintain its production at full capacity."

------------------------------------------------------------------

-  I never stated anywhere that people waited for company statements before they bought shares into company. What  I said was that the market responds to events (flood) after it has happened which triggers news which triggers market reaction. The public already knew before the official statement in Q4  29/11/2011 because news had gone out as early as the 19/10/2011 and 20/10/2011 respectively that it was not impacted  (http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/10/20/business/9731551&sec=business) . This is roughy about the time the price started its ascent.  The share price started moving up after the floods not before and is therefore reactive and not a forward mechanism.  

-------------------

Whether OSK sell the stake of JCY doesn't matter, the IB has the right to buy and sell the stock anytime, if the valuation and profit report is good and share price shouldn't be current level, why nobody buy until the share price going up, instead being sold down?

- I have already explained this more then once and I will not explain again. Please scroll up and read my previous posts as my answers are there.
I never disputed anyone did not have a right to buy or sell whether an individual or instititution.

--------------------------------
-Correct. OSK cannot let the price go back up after the JCY-CD expired on 27th Feb. If they do, the market will know they have been manipulating the price
and no one will buy their warrant ever again. They have also been keeping the price low since then to collect to hedge for the new warrants they just issued last week (JCY-CE). Again they will not let the price go up straight away because it will be too obvious to the market they have been playing with the price to collect cheap to hedge for the JCY-CE.  When OSK are done playing with the price, it will take abit of time for market fears to ease as it has been spooked when OSK started pressing on 8th feb. Look at the price historical price movements please since the 8th feb.

CSL sold earlier before it free fall. i'm safe.
i know many get caught and now hoping tomorrow climb up.

i was surprise the price shoot up to 1.80, after i sold at 1.65 earlier with profit.