I do not believe a stock only has single player in the market that "manipulate the price" alone especially for a big liquidity stock like JCY, and many institutional investors are eyeing on this stock one.

Yes, a big player can depress the price for short period of time when they make disposal time, but if a stock is cheap enough, there are many other big players are waiting to collect and buy which prevent the stock price going down.
It is not as simple that a single entity want to throw the stock, the stock straight away can go down one.

We cannot rely on CWs factor to determine the stock valuation, or what is happening.

If the theory of stock price cannot go up, because of CWs expiry time, issuer want to depress the stock, then almost every few months also got this Cw that Cw expired one, then forever those stock with Cws cannot go up?

Bro,
On that day 8/2/2012,it closed 1.41, down 0.01, it did not close at 1.50, (only highest 1.50).
So the stock closed down -0.01 on the day of announcement the reported 2000% profit increase.
Already said, stock market is forward mechanism. Market knew the company is going to report good figure prior before hand, hence price surge from 0.50 to 1.xx.
It did not wait until announcement made. Hence little reaction when reported 2000% profit increase.

So if HDD price gradually go down over the long term, isn't it translate the potential of gradual go down in profit figure in the future?

If the valuation is cheap, and HDD future is rosy, why nobody buy until the stock that lead to the stock goes up?
Instead (your claim only) let a single entity to press down the price alone, and even after pressed down, still nobody want to buy?

LTA locked in high price for multiple years? Let's its financial statement answer this question.
Next year 2013 or 2014, we revive this thread, so that everyone has the answer.

Hey Cherroy,
So far the discussions have been quite academic. Now lets get to the real thing. Are you currently holding a sizeable position? Are you expecting the price to go up or down? At what price and time frame do you intend to get in? Give us some clue as to how you will trade this counter. Share your knowledge with us. I know you are very good in this. I have read quite a few of your wisdom.

This post has been edited by omione: Mar 28 2012, 11:14 PM

I do not believe a stock only has single player in the market that "manipulate the price" alone especially for a big liquidity stock like JCY, and many institutional investors are eyeing on this stock one.

-A single player (in JCY-CD case) holding more then 10% of the shares in the open market (JCY has approx 2 billion shares, 500m on the open market and the other 75% held by YK Yong -the majority holder and founder). Many instititutional investors know the drill (because they probaly do the same on their own warrants) so even though the price is pressed down and low and good value, there is still a big risk it could be go down further because a massive drop in price causes panic/fear and one doesnt know how low the price will be pressed down except the one pressing the price. So as an instititution, if you go in to buy RM 20m say at 1.30 when the price dropped from 1.50,and the after you bought the price is pressed down further to 1.08, thats a paper loss of of almost 20% (RM 4M). The price doesnt come back straight away either when the price is pressed because it takes time for the market fears to ease. So the institution could be holding that paper loss for weeks/months until the manipulator is done with their work and dust settles. Why bother going through the trouble when they can wait for the process to near its end and ride the uptrend.

--------------------------------------

We cannot rely on CWs factor to determine the stock valuation, or what is happening.

- We dont have a choice, CW issuers are masters of price manipulation and as long as they have enough shares, they can beat it down artificially.

-------------------------------------------

If the theory of stock price cannot go up, because of CWs expiry time, issuer want to depress the stock, then almost every few months also got this Cw that Cw expired one, then forever those stock with Cws cannot go up?

- they cannot go up a for a short period before and afer expiry only (they are not forever going down). Once the CW issuer has disposed all shares, it takes abit of time for the price to recover and for market confidence to be restored. The extent of the press down also usually depends on what price the CW issuer started hedging against mother. If they started hedging really early at a really low price and have a ratio whih acts in ther favour (2 to 1) ( as with the JCY-CE now) then there is less of a need to smash the price down before/during expiry because they are gauranteed a certain return already regardless of how high the price goes up.

Using new JCY-CE as an Example:

Say OSK started hedging 30m mother shares now at a average price of 1.15.

Exercise price: 1.30
Issue price: .15
Ratio: 2 for 1


It doesnt matter if mother price is RM2, RM3 or RM4 by March 2013, OSK will still benefit either way:

RM2

RM2 - 1.30 = .70 (pay to son holder)
they stil make .15 from the mother share after paying me plus the .30 they made from me when I bought the 2 warrant (to equal 1 mother). Total profit for OSK = .45

RM3

RM3 - 1.30 = 1.70 (pay to son holder)
they stil make .15 from the mother share after paying me plus the .30 they made from me when I bought the 2 warrant (to equal 1 mother). Total profit for OSK = .45

RM4

RM4 - 1.30 = 2.70 (pay to son holder)
they stil make .15 from the mother share after paying me plus the .30 they made from me when I bought the 2 warrant (to equal 1 mother). Total profit for OSK = .45

In the above example, they hedge low and early and the 2 for 1 ratio garantees them a return of .45 profit no matter how high the mother goes by March 2013.


------------------------------------

Now look back at the JCY-CD which expired in Feb 2012.

Exercise price: .70
issue price .15
ratio: 1 for 1


I have already posted some example calculations for this warrant. It was issued in April 2011 when the mother was about .80 (or there abouts) and the share price was on a downward plunge. After the warrant was issued the share kept dropping all the way down to a low of .39 (or there abouts) and the warrant was at one stage below .6 sen before the floods (October). So OSK issued this warrant on the basis the mother willkeep going down hence the fantatistic 1 for 1 deal to entice warrant buyers. So the question is since the share price was on a downward plunge, did they see a need to hedge and if they did hedge, they dispose of the mother before the floods happened because if they hedged and kept the mother and the price kept going down, they will also be in for a big loss if mother kept going down. They made .15 per warrant on issue but if holding onto the mother meant a loss greater then .15 per mother share ( which is possible becuase motehr plunged from about .80 from the time warrant was issued to a low .39 just bfore the flood, thats a .40 sen differnce or loss on mother) then they would have for sure disposed the mother to protect themself. Either way they did not hedge because they could see price plunging (hence fantastic 1 for 1 deal offering) or they did and disposed to prior to floods to mitigate against potential loses on mother. Either case, they would not have been holding any mother by the time the floods happend and for a moement there, it looked like it was game over for JCY and OSK made their .15 per warrant and got off scott free. BUT the floods happened and the question is after the floods, at what price did they start hedging. They were not holding any motehr share at the time and could not press the price and keep it low to collect cheap. the only thing they could do is start buying, but when they buy, the mother price also
goes up. So did they know how how much JCY Benefited at the time and how long did they wait before they started buying up the mother. I have already posted examples of how they can lose money if they colleted late. Now lets say they bought early right after the floods so they are fully hedged and protected bought mother at say .60. They still needed to press the price down and keep it low to prepare themselves for the new JCy-CE which just got release last week.
So there are 2 reasons why they had to press the price down.

---

Added on March 28, 2012, 10:24 pm-----------------

On that day 8/2/2012,it closed 1.41, down 0.01, it did not close at 1.50, (only highest 1.50).
So the stock closed down -0.01 on the day of announcement the reported 2000% profit increase.
Already said, stock market is forward mechanism. Market knew the company is going to report good figure prior before hand, hence price surge from 0.50 to 1.xx.
It did not wait until announcement made. Hence little reaction when reported 2000% profit increase.

-I never said it closed at 1.50. It said it went from 1.42 to 1.50 on the day the reults were announced. The share price did still move on the day and the price closed at 1.41 like I said because OSK started disposing. Look at the price chart and look how sudden and steep the price plunged on the day.
If market is forward mechanism and market knew company was going to report good profit, why did the price not go up to 1.50 when the market found out JCY was not impacted by floods in Oct/Nov 2011? Let me ask you this, if market is forward mech, then has it factored it what JCY will be earning in Q2, Q3, Q4?
If you are saying it has then the share price should not move up anymore (and OSK have not been pressing price)?. If you are saying it has not, then this proves the market is not a forward mech.

----------------------

LTA locked in high price for multiple years? Let's its financial statement answer this question.
Next year 2013 or 2014, we revive this thread, so that everyone has the answer.



- Lets revist this point in Q1 2013.









This post has been edited by lamken: Mar 28 2012, 10:24 PM

Go! Go! Go!

Good point.

Cheeroy, lets not beat around the bush anymore and get to the hearth of the discussion and talk about JCY share price. based on your theory that the market is a forward mech, CW issuer cannot press price, HDD prices falling and SSD taking over HDD, what price do you think JCY will reach in 3 months?

today it cannot even break above rm2.2 .. will it drop further on tomorrow?

3 months?
Why ask me?
I had said, I am not fortune teller, please find someone smart that can tell share price after 3 months time or can know who press up or down the market price.
I am noob and dumb in this area.

It is no secret that stock market is a forwards looking mechanism at all, it is not my theory either.
It is also not my theory to say HDD price may fall as time goes, as current pricing may not sustainable even you also agreed it may normalise at time goes.
I just use common sense that current shortage of HDD and price is not sustainable.

I only know long term pricing of a stock cannot run away its core fundamental. Short term wise, price can go anywhere, up to the sky also can.
If one cares about 3 month price afterwards, one shouldn't care at all the company fundamental issue etc, as for 3 month time, it is about trading/speculating only.
One should look for TA charting if interested in 3 months afterwards price.

As summary
My point is only simple.
Stock market is forwards looking mechanism.
Stock price doesn't only move and explode to upside when company announced 2000% increase in profit, stock price already moved prior before hand, hence, from 0.50 to 1.xx, since after flooding issue.
While the profit figure is rosy and seems trading at cheap valuation, yet stock price doesn't move more to upside, because market is not convince the profit figure is sustainable throughout long term (another 1 to 3 quarter may be still can), due to HDD current pricing is not normal and sustainable.
If the price does sustainable, the prove the market wrong anticipation, the stock price has lot of room to go up further from currency level.

If one interested in heart of discussion to discover what is the share price will be after 3 months, 6 months later alone, then sorry, I can only say I am noob in this issue.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 29 2012, 10:17 AM

--------------

Why ask me?
I had said, I am not fortune teller, please find someone smart that can tell share price after 3 months time or can know who press up or down the market price.
I am noob and dumb in this area.

It is no secret that stock market is a forwards looking mechanism at all, it is not my theory either.
It is also not my theory to say HDD price may fall as time goes, as current pricing may not sustainable even you also agreed it may normalise at time goes.
I just use common sense that current shortage of HDD and price is not sustainable.

I only know long term pricing of a stock cannot run away its core fundamental. Short term wise, price can go anywhere, up to the sky also can.
If one cares about 3 month price afterwards, one shouldn't care at all the company fundamental issue etc, as for 3 month time, it is about trading/speculating only.
One should look for TA charting if interested in 3 months afterwards price.

- The question has been put to you because you are adamant the market is a forward mechanism and based on your theory the share price cannot move up anymore because the market is not convinced the earnings are sustainable. If that is correct, the price should not go up anymore. If what you are saying about a forward mechcanism is true, between now and after Q2 results is released , the share price should not go up because market has already factored this in.

---------------
If the price does sustainable, the prove the market wrong anticipation, the stock price has lot of room to go up further from currency level.

- This totally contradicts what you said about the market being a forward mechanism. because how can the market be a forward mechanism when it is wrong? Now you are suggesting the market is going to REACT and share price has further room to move if the sustainabilty of the earnings is proven.


Now you are saying the price can go up to the sky even in the short term? if that is the case doesnt that contradict what you are saying about



----------------
My point is only simple.
Stock market is forwards looking mechanism.
Stock price doesn't only move and explode to upside when company announced 2000% increase in profit, stock price already moved prior before hand, hence, from 0.50 to 1.xx, since after flooding issue.

- The price did not jump to 1.50 either right after the floods. The share price moved up progressively/gradually (from October 2011 to Feb 8 2012 -when the JCY-CD was due to expire) and reacted to news along the way..ie JCY was not impacted by floods, competitors were hit hard, world HDD shortage, HDD prices going up, JCY profit guidance etc. The profit guidance was announced way ahead of Q1 results. and I repeat again the share price did move (from 1.42 to .150) on the day the Q1 results were announced on Feb 8. So I disagree that the market is forward mechanism and more so because it is prone to manipulation by big players. The market REACTS to news and cannot factor in future events.

----------------------

I just use common sense that current shortage of HDD and price is not sustainable.

- and what about increased volume allocations as a result of crippled competitors? Additional market share captured? will HDD makers like seagate and WD be sitting around for 8mths+ waiting for JCY's competitors to com back online so they can go back to them for component supplies? Does the forward mechanism know the answers? no so how can the market be a forward mechanism if it doesnt know and has not factored this in.

----------------

I only know long term pricing of a stock cannot run away its core fundamental.

- Agreed which is why JCY price still has a long way to climb.

It doesn't contradict, market is always has some expectation and anticipation, the anticipation by the market is that the result in the long term future may not as good as Q1. For next few Q may be, but it may not sustainable as same level. Hence investors reluctantly to move in to buy which can result in higher share price.
Until the company come out the result the surprise the market anticipation, then investors may want to relook and buy, resulted price goes higher.
What is the contradiction?
The market forward mechanism means market doesn't expect as high only. Does market must know the future 100% correctly? No.
But market has always has some sort of expectation based on development from time to time.

You can twist and turn the fact on 8/2/2012, I don't mind, the fact on 8/2/2012, the stock price closed down -0.01.
In fact the announcement of the result only being made after 8/2/2012 market closed, so 9/2/2012 is the first day of trading after the result is known, as on 8/2/2012 trading day, the market did not know the result yet.
While on 9/2/2012, what was the share price of JCY? Opened 1.41, closed 1.41, no movement on the first day of result being known.

A share price can go up to sky and down as well due to short term situation, investors emotion etc.
But a share price cannot run away its core fundamental over the long term. Aka a poor stock, a lousy company that cannot deliver a profit over the long term, even through short term being "gorenged" to sky high, one day it will fall back based on its core fundamental suggested.
This also cannot understand?

Market react to the news? and cannot factor in future event?
This is first time I heard this.

Have you ever heard the famous quote "buy on rumour, sell on news"
When news finally come out, most of the time, it is too late.
Ain't we see many dividend stocks move higher prior way before the dividend being announced?

Market cannot factor in future event?
Why share price surged after Thai flooding start to arised?
Shouldn't price only move up after guidance being provided? or only move after announcement being made?
Why share price doesn't move up now? Good result mah, share price cannot factor in future, must look at present announcement only, or always being pressed down by CW issuer?

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 29 2012, 04:30 PM

---------

One final point on the market being a forward mechanism. If indeed this is true, why bother buying shares at all, because the market has already factored all prices in for the future and all share prices should not move in the future.

Buying share is about get a share of profit made by the company, this is the basic of investing in share.
Why always care about share price?

Market forwards mechanism means people value(willing to buy/sell) existing share price based on company future outlook, and it doesn't means it must 100% accurate.

Company business can grow further as well as deteoriate, it is in going process, while market forwards mechanism is anticipating/guessing those progress.
You don't buy a stock based on history, but on its future.

------------------------------

It doesn't contradict, market is always has some expectation and anticipation, the anticipation by the market is that the result in the long term future may not as good as Q1. For next few Q may be, but it may not sustainable as same level. Hence investors reluctantly to move in to buy which can result in higher share price.
Until the company come out the result the surprise the market anticipation, then investors may want to relook and buy, resulted price goes higher.
What is the contradiction?
The market forward mechanism means market doesn't expect as high only. Does market must know the future 100% correctly? No.
But market has always has some sort of expectation based on development from time to time.

-Forward Market Mechanism and Market expectation are 2 very different things. One implies an permenant instrument existing in the market while the other is emotion based on how the market feels at a given point in time.


---------------------------------

You can twist and turn the fact on 8/2/2012, I don't mind, the fact on 8/2/2012, the stock price closed down -0.01.
In fact the announcement of the result only being made after 8/2/2012 market closed, so 9/2/2012 is the first day of trading after the result is known, as on 8/2/2012 trading day, the market did not know the result yet.
While on 9/2/2012, what was the share price of JCY? Opened 1.41, closed 1.41, no movement on the first day of result being known.

- Yes because like I said before, the price had already progressively/gradually moved up on constant news since the flood (between oct and feb) and the profit guidance. The Quarterly results is not the only indicator for a share price to move and cannot be used as a sole measure to determine if a market has a forward mechanism. ,the market moves on news constantly. In any case the market reacted to news leading up to the Q1 results which is reflected in the price progressivelt moving up and did not go up to 1.50 when the flood happened.


---------------------------------

A share price can go up to sky and down as well due to short term situation, investors emotion etc.
But a share price cannot run away its core fundamental over the long term. Aka a poor stock, a lousy company that cannot deliver a profit over the long term, even through short term being "gorenged" to sky high, one day it will fall back based on its core fundamental suggested.
This also cannot understand?


- Contradicting yourself again. Your forward mechanism should already factor this in so how can it be gorenged if the market mechinism has already determined its value..

-------------------------------------


Market react to the news? and cannot factor in future event?
This is first time I heard this.

Have you ever heard the famous quote "buy on rumour, sell on news"
When news finally come out, most of the time, it is too late.
Ain't we see many dividend stocks move higher prior way before the dividend being announced?

- What I meant was the market reacts to events and cannot factor in future events. ie the floods. The market did not know the flood was going to happened until after it happened.

-----------------------------------

Market cannot factor in future event?
Why share price surged after Thai flooding start to arised?
Shouldn't price only move up after guidance being provided? or only move after announcement being made?
Why share price doesn't move up now? Good result mah, share price cannot factor in future, must look at present announcement only, or always being pressed down by CW issuer?

-it started to PROGESSIVELY go up after the event (flood). The share price did not go up before the flood happened.

---------------------------------------

Shouldn't price only move up after guidance being provided? or only move after announcement being made?

No because there was constant news about the floods having no impact on JCY and moreover, JCY confirmed in their 2011 Q4 result that they were not impacted, way before the profit guidance and Q1 result. So the market was fed contant news on what was happening and hence its share price progrssively went up and did not go up to 1.50 on flood day. Let me put this to you, how did the market know JCY was not impacted unless JCY made the official statement? Rumours? if rumours it still occured after the fact, therefore still reactive to events.


----------------------------------------

Why share price doesn't move up now? Good result mah, share price cannot factor in future, must look at present announcement only, or always being pressed down by CW issuer?

- I already explained this with examples and evidence. In fact I can even tell exactly how many JCY shares OSK had on hand as of last friday my friend (and no they have not reached 30m). I think we are just going around in circles. Let time be the judge and we will revisit this discussion in 6 months and see where the share price is by then and see who is right.

---

Added on March 29, 2012, 5:32 pm------------------------

Buying share is about get a share of profit made by the company, this is the basic of investing in share.
Why always care about share price?

- Really so people do not buy shares in the hopes that its value goes up?

Anyway, I think we can both go on for days/weeks about this so like I said, Lets wait 6 months, come back and we revisit this discussion.

-----------------------


This post has been edited by lamken: Mar 29 2012, 05:32 PM

Don't know JCY is not impacted by the flood?
You need rocket research to know JCY is not affected, when the flood was happening in Thailand, while JCY factory is located in Johor?
You need to wait for JCY statement to know they are not impacted?

There are many professional analysts, industrial players know what is the situation of particular industry when this kind of situation happening.
They waited until JCY made a statement they are not impacted, only know they are not impacted and only make a move in stock market?

Whether OSK sell the stake of JCY doesn't matter, the IB has the right to buy and sell the stock anytime, if the valuation and profit report is good and share price shouldn't be current level, why nobody buy until the share price going up, instead being sold down?

So far I can see the interest is about share price discussion only.
Wait 6 month to see share price?
Who is right? Who care? I never care its share price at all.

My god. The news of not being affected came out 3 mths ago. It was publicly known. Tht's y share price rebounded from the low of RM0.49 to RM1.50 high... Tht's y earnings shot by 1900%. If the production line was affected, it should be -1900%.. LOL...

--------------------------------------------------------------

Don't know JCY is not impacted by the flood?
You need rocket research to know JCY is not affected, when the flood was happening in Thailand, while JCY factory is located in Johor?
You need to wait for JCY statement to know they are not impacted?

- Wrong again. JCY has multiple factories in malaysia (including Johor) and a factory in Saraburi Thailand which was not impacted by the floods because it was on high ground. And Yes you do have to wait for JCY to make statement because its their factory, otherwise who else would know whether it was actually impacted?

From Q4 2011 results: http://www.jcyinternational.com/images/pdf...11%20-%20q4.pdf

Section B2: "The recent devastating flood in Thailand has affected a number of HDD vendors and component suppliers resulting in a
global shortage of HDD supply. JCY’s factory in Saraburi Thailand is fortunate to have avoided the recent flood in Thailand
and is able to maintain its production at full capacity."

------------------------------------------------------------------

There are many professional analysts, industrial players know what is the situation of particular industry when this kind of situation happening.
They waited until JCY made a statement they are not impacted, only know they are not impacted and only make a move in stock market?

- I never stated anywhere that people waited for company statements before they bought shares into company. What I said was that the market responds to events (flood) after it has happened which triggers news which triggers market reaction. The public already knew before the official statement in Q4 29/11/2011 because news had gone out as early as the 19/10/2011 and 20/10/2011 respectively that it was not impacted (http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/10/20/business/9731551&sec=business) . This is roughy about the time the price started its ascent. The share price started moving up after the floods not before and is therefore reactive and not a forward mechanism.

-------------------

Whether OSK sell the stake of JCY doesn't matter, the IB has the right to buy and sell the stock anytime, if the valuation and profit report is good and share price shouldn't be current level, why nobody buy until the share price going up, instead being sold down?

- I have already explained this more then once and I will not explain again. Please scroll up and read my previous posts as my answers are there.
I never disputed anyone did not have a right to buy or sell whether an individual or instititution.

wait it drop till rm1.30 then we'll go in. be patience. i smell some greed in market.

LOL...Iam going to go insane if I stay in this forum.


fyi: the price is currently 1.17.

apologise... its typo error. i mean 0.30

You wait until announcement made, only know it is not impacted?
Their employee and management don't know, vendor don't know, customer don't know, industry player don't know. Everyone waited until announcement made only know?
Industry player and analysts don't know their primary factory and major production come from Johor?

Market forward looking means once the flood trigger shortage and price soar in HDD, market forward looking for the company and deliver rosy Q1 profit figure already.
Hence share price soar because everyone anticipated good earning result ahead for Q1 and Q2 or some temporary period.
Share price reacts to how well the future earning will be, share price does not start to react only when company announced 1900% rise in earning,
this is what we called market forward looking mechanism.
Share price is all about earning result ahead.

Share price reluctantly to move higher despite good earning now, and cheap valuation based on current earning, because general consensus or investors perception is that the earning figure as good may not sustainable over the long term. As simple as that. Whether the general consensus is right or wrong, only future will tell, and if market anticipation is proved wrong by the financial result in year ahead then share price may need to correct to the upside.

You are the one come out with this statement below.
This is a big accusation and also a big accusation that someone can hold up the price so that it won't go up for 1 month.
If stock valuation is cheap, and future is rosy, it is plain stupid for an entity to press down a share price to let other buy cheap. The market is full of various investors and institution around, one even is big entity is not alone the market can dictate a share price solely.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 30 2012, 10:14 AM