yea...
wat's the best price and target outlook?
coz i'm sure WD and Engtech hasn't recover for the Jan - March operations.
will they be ok for Apr - June quarter??

Let's make a bit conservative... TP: RM1.50

Based on current price, upside still got 20%. I believe is attractive for any retail investors like us

For the next 6 mths, at least is guarantee tht the supplies will not recover. Hence, u will still see HDD prices hold at a strong level. earnings will eventually be good for JCY due to recovery of supplies later...

er, how do you know for the next 6 months supplies will not recover? i thought HDD price start to recover now due to pre-flood happen at Thailand last year?

Anyway, i can see this stock is a good time to buy now

It was commented by most industry players in semi-cond industry. U look at Eng Tek. Why they want to revise lower price for the privatisation? Bcz all the machinaries are gone in Thai n it becomes scrap value. Logically speaking, when the whole plant is destroyed, it takes time to clean up, find a more suitable place, import the machinaries from Japan, recover the production lines.... I think 6 mths given is a conservative forecast which has not included the opportunity cost. Any hiccups will affect the supplies... N not to be forgotten, the earnings are always the laggard to reflect wht happened in the past.. Means that although it takes at least 6 mths to recover, the earnings will only be reflected 9 mths later (tht time u will see those players like Unisem, Eng Tek start to show improved earnings) ... AT the meantime, JCY would be the sole player to gain most due to Thai flooding, stronger USD dollar, no impairement loss due to unafffected plants, stronger HDD prices.



Last but not least, last year, JCY made a loss, so, anything to increase, will be a low-based effect. Tht's y in previous quarter, their earnings improved 1900% or 19x.

it was very resilient last friday even though most counters were under selling pressure.
looks attractive at rm1.20

To make a better analysis, perhaps can check around the HDD mkt in Low Yat and also whether the HDD prices has come down.. Tht is the most straight forward survey....

well, i think most of the big sharks will goreng this JCY in shortly because its still undervalued?

Haha... I have no crystal ball. But i think it is impending... It also depends on everyone of us.... If everyone puts in the efforts to goreng, it will surely go up as the positive newsflow is there. Just waiting for sentiment to spread around.

The price of HDD has peak during last year end, and slowly come down.

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Added on March 25, 2012, 3:18 pmThis is anticipated by the market already.
If not, the price won't shoot up from 0.60 to 1.xx.

Stock market is a forward mechanism, they are not looking back one.
Unless current anticipation is lower than what the result delivered only then one may see surprise on share price to the upside.

That's why some company reported dismay earning, but share price doesn't move after the announcement, because share price already moved way before the the announcement.
While some you see even report 100x increase in earning, share price hardly move, because it already moved long long time ago.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 25 2012, 03:18 PM

so do you think its worth for us to buy at the price RM1.2xx?

and yes, i did notice the HDD price is slowly decreasing?

thanks for ur advises

This post has been edited by apple1188: Mar 25 2012, 03:56 PM

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"The price of HDD has peak during last year end, and slowly come down."

HDD high prices will remain until 2014:

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/922...gh_through_2014

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"This is anticipated by the market already.
If not, the price won't shoot up from 0.60 to 1.xx."
Stock market is a forward mechanism, they are not looking back one.
Unless current anticipation is lower than what the result delivered only then one may see surprise on share price to the upside.


So the market knew with certainty that JCY was going to achieve it's Q1 profit guidance before it was announced and the market now knows
with certainty what JCY will make in Q2, Q3 and Q4 and beyound and has factored this into its current share price? If the market knows then you must know as well, do tell us what JCY will be making for Q2, Q3 and Q4?

----------------------------

"That's why some company reported dismay earning, but share price doesn't move after the announcement, because share price already moved way before the the announcement.
While some you see even report 100x increase in earning, share price hardly move, because it already moved long long time ago."

Provide 2 examples over the last 12 months of companies which have reported 100x increase in earnings where the share price has hardly moved?

Finally if you are that certain about JCY, please let everyone know how high/low the share price will go so they can make an informed decision .

lol this JCY down to 1.170?

what happen to jcy, last friday seems like ok, but today all the way going down, 1.160 already

100x increase in earning?
Not so difficult, find those losing money company previously that turn into profit, it just means indefinite in maths calculation from - to +.
Even JCY itself report a surge of >2000% increase in profit on 8 Feb 2012.
Did the share price increase on that day? (In fact price drop on that day)
It is price in way before the profit announcement.

I am not fortune teller, how should I know how high and low the share price will be?
I just pointed that the turn around in profit figure due to surge in HDD price and hardly being affected by flood, more and less being "price in" in the market.

HDD price remain high until 2014?
Only time will tell.
It may not fall back to previous low price prior before flooding, but HDD remains the same price as today until 2014? I highly doubt so.

Personally view, HDD business just temporary has a lifting due to shortage due to flood, it is not a long term trend.
With PC sales is lackluster, I don't see very rosy picture for HDD. Unless those flood hit factories are totally shut down, and not wish to resume operation. Then it is another story.

The hot item out there is Ipad and tablet, and those are not using HDD.
And tablet market has more and less eaten the laptop and PC business.
People are more keen on Ipad and tablet instead of laptop.

Not to forget, HDD in PC market also facing challenge from SSD, although at current stage, not a big threat (yet).

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 26 2012, 09:13 PM

I strongly believe that HDD price is recover since last year and the price of HDD is slowly going down.

We'll see on April JCY will up or down. Prolly sell your JCY before April comes?

Consider me ill informed, can you name 2 such companies that experienced 100x increase in earnings and share price didnt go up so I can compare?
I can tell you with 200% certainty that the share price dropped on the day 8th Feb and has been since that day because our friends at OSK needed to press
down the price for thier JCY-CD expiry on 27th Feb and have been keeping the price low since 27h Feb to collect cheap to prepare for the JCY-CE which they just released last week. So I totally disagree that the market has priced in the Q1 results. If anything, the price tested 1.50 on the Q1 results and has not accounted for the future earnings of the company because the market does not know what JCY will be earning in Q2, Q3, Q4 etc. What you are saying is that essentially it doesnt matter whether JCY makes 200m or 20m for each quarter Q2,Q3, Q4 the share price will stay the same because the market is a "forward mechanism" and has already factored this. Totally disagree.

There will be a gradual drop in HDD prices with time but the shortage will remain throughout 2012 and into 2013 (refer to Seagate Steve Luczo articles).

Ipad and tablet?

So do you currently store all your downloaded movies and HD movies on your iPad and tablet?
And where does the Ipad and tablet get all its media content from? Data centres, server farms etc. These centres must use HDD because SDD is prohibitively
expensive (15x more then HDD). The explosion of portable devices is only going to fuel the growth of HDD even more due to the increase demand for media
content. Ipad and tablet, iphone et are all that, portable devices for portabilty and and not real storage devices. Do you keep your library of movies on your tablet or do you simply copy what you need over to the tablet from the HDD so you can take it with you?

Also picture this, when you are in the office, do you do your work on Ipad/iphone/tablet or the PC/Laptop? I have not seen any big organisations to date who have replaced all their PC/laptops with Ipad/tablet to work on. Portable devices are jsut that, for portabilty, nothing more.

HDD facing threat from SSD?

Unless there is a breakthrough technology in the next few years which can reduce the cost of manufacturing SDD to a point where it is 10-15 times cheaper then today, then HDD will always have a place. Each technology has its own purpose, one for portabilty (SSD) and the other real storage (HDD).

Cherroy and Lamken both provided useful analysis. These back-and-forth discussions are healthy for the serious investors or traders of JCY. At every jucture there's buyer and seller at certain price. The ones who get it right make extraordinary profits.

I am nonetheless with Lamken. JCY price still has a long way to rise. Market is fickle. It is news driven. Just look at the stock charts. They bob up and down almost on a daily basis driven by whatever news that happen to dominate the headlines of the day. Pro in this business know that. That's why there's profit taking at 1.50. The next rally will be driven by the Q2 results, and then Q3 results and so on. The price will continue to be driven by profit growth.

Many mentioned the top price at 1.50. That's very low. I think that will be achieved in the coming rally. I believe the minimum will be 2.00 before the year is out. Very likely more. I have written on this before. And I still hold on to this belief.

This post has been edited by omione: Mar 27 2012, 02:42 PM

thanks for the info, I'm also holding this with the intention that JCY will raise

oic, pressing down?
So now already March, why price doesn't up more than RM1.50?
Still press down until now?

You get the wrong idea what I am trying to say, the market factor in future earning won't as good as Q1, that's why share price hardly move despite register tremendous Q1 profit figure.
If Q2 and Q3 result come in at par and better than Q1, then market anticipated wrongly, means share price has more room to upside.

If not at Q1 7.x cents EPS, it means roughly 30 cents annualised EPS means it is trading at 4x PER currently. If the earning result can be maintained over the long term, it is a super cheap valuation.
But market anticipation is that the EPS at this level may not sustainable in the long run. So share price hardly move, until the earning result prove the anticipation totally wrong.

HDD still has its market, no doubt. HDD won't obsolete for sometimes to come. I never said HDD will obsolete in near future.
But Ipad and tablet sales is getting stronger and stronger which particularly affect the laptop business.
PC sales is lackluster lately, but Ipad and tablet and smartphone sales are strong, this is a fact.

And HDD price remain high for the next 2 years?
I don't know, I don't have insight whether those flood hit factories are not going or not able to resume production after more than a year.

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Added on March 27, 2012, 11:32 amOne can agrees or disagrees, no one knows the future.
But I vote for HDD price will come down in the mid to long term future.

We will get the answer when time due.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 27 2012, 11:32 AM

JCY probably has the ability to probably meet its 400M target for the first time ever, but will they be able to sustain it over a prolonged period is a big question mark judging from their past performance.