G'evening folks,

Initial jobless claims came in 462K.. just about the same as what's expected: 460K.
Overnight, data from China points to inflation - that's going to push some equities down today because of
fears of imminent rates hike.

Yes.. wait and be patient. Let it come to you.

Infact, I was hoping the data came in much better that it can surge up
so that I can short more.

Covered my SCOK shorts at 32.15. 15% profit.

IMO, The bears are actually also weak. I was hoping for more pull back,
but we hardly touch 10500 and now we recovered 70+ points.

I believe the market wants to see its January high target no matter.

As for C - wow!
What can I say, this thing just keep going ain't it?
Now that it has reach 4.15, I am in agreement with wildthings73, it may want to see 4.30 later.
The charts are showing all bullishness, strength, volume but RSI already reached 81.

But, I've pulled the "trim the top" trigger now at 4.15 'coz I don't want to be greedy.
I'm reducing my shares back to core position and let the rest ride. I've up my stop to 3.8.

Some of you have asked me what does "trim the top" means?

Well, simple: whenever a long equity that I've accumulated has raised in value over more than a certain amount
of value or certain percentage, I will reduce that amount back to the core position.

In this case, C has increased almost 17% from my avg price of 3.55, now approx $2600 in excess
of my principle investment, so I just trimmed off that portion and keep the rest as my core. If C drops in value or below my avg buy in price by a certain percentage, I will buy again to accumulate and wait for it rise again to my core position.

There is no fix rule on the percentage or when to buy again to average down (during bear cycle). I normally watch the price channel and spread from my last average. For C, last time, a spread between 25cents and 50cents would be good enough and over 50cents or 15% or higher -> time to take profits or "trim the top"..

Hopefully this make sense.
Everyone may have different trading ideas but feel free to share your ideas or comments.

Closing update:
Dow 10611.84 +44.51 +0.42%
Nasdaq 2368.46 +9.51 +0.40%
S&P 500 1150.24 +4.63 +0.40%

The S&P has reached its target of reaching Jan high. Dow is still lagging behind but not too far away.

C got jacked up to high 4.18 now.. nice close!
Up'ed my stop to 4.0 now.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Mar 12 2010, 07:31 AM

That is a POS stock. Not worth anything. Being "goreng" like crazy.
Anyway, quick money made and I'm happy.

Tonight, I have a feeling that the big boys are going to make their move.
They're going to tear this market down like in early Jan and make money on the way down.

So, be very cautious and have your stops in place.

Good luck 'all and have a good day. I'll be check'in tonight again.

I think it is going to 4.3, it hasn't flat out or pivot yet. Are u still holding on your C shares?

I'll be happy to unload my shares to you at 4.7.

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Added on March 12, 2010, 11:09 pmYes..if the value of the stock has reached or exceeded my target, I'll just sell some off.

Your initial position: $5000
After 1 month, say it now it worth $6000
Just take off: $1000 worth off the table.



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Mar 12 2010, 11:09 PM

I don't think the bulls can hold much longer. This market is pretty full now from over eating.
Even good data from consumer confidence and feb retail sales not pushing it higher.
I'm looking for at least a small pullback by next week. All we need is some scary news to push this down.
We don't have that yet. We need the Anti-PPT team to help. Maybe China will do it. Hopefully, they'll issue an "intent" to
raise rates or the US Fed signal "rates" hike soon.

Ok, I've lowered my ask price: 4.68. C'mon MyNewUser - you know you want my C shares badly.

Closing update
Dow 10624.69 +12.85 +0.12%
Nasdaq 2367.66 -0.80 -0.03%
S&P 500 1149.99 -0.25 -0.02%


Both S&P and NASQ now waiting for Dow to catch up..
This market isn't going higher.. let see how hard it can fall next week.

Not yet.. just wait for double digits pullback. Need more bad news to act as catalyst.
It will happen. Be patient.

We got China and US starting to throw gloves at each other over currency issue. Dollar is rising.
It won't be good for equities. Start looking at short position.

It depends. Are you looking at 20ema moving ABOVE 50ema or moving BELOW 50ema?
Is the current price above the 20ema, 50ema or in between?

I usually look RSI. If it is overbought.. time to sell.

No.. don't worry it won't crash. The Govt PPT won't let this happen. Just waiting for a small pullback.

By the way, are you looking at X ? I'm looking get some if it pulls back to 54.
This thing is strong and looking forward, it will be even stronger this year.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Mar 15 2010, 10:54 PM

It could pullback below 50 but short of another major triple witching issues like Greece,China and Obama bashing stocks, I'm only seeing a pullback to 54/55 at most.

Aiya, I'm not a sifu.. there are plenty of sifus here who are much better than me.
After all these years, there is not a single day that I'm not learning from this crazy market and also humbled by it when it proves you wrong when it goes against you.

Yes, above RSI: 70 to 90 would indicate overbought condition. For example: look at C last week.

If the current price is between 20ema and 50ema, what's its trajectory? Upwards or downwards or sideways?
Is it at the top of bollinger band? middle? or at the bottom? If it is at top, time to take some off. If it is bottom, perhaps scale a position, if it is middle, perhaps wait and see.. what's the major indices doing? Sorry, there is no short answer, they are all "it depends" situation.

IMO, charts are usually 63% right, or 33% wrong. I am only hoping they're 63% right at the time when I see them so I can use it to make money.

Do you have an example of a stock that you are interested in to buy or sell?
Feel free post its chart and let us all study it here and post our thoughts on it.

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Added on March 15, 2010, 11:57 pmzamans and mfrog: Are you guys long S?

I would be patient with S before adding any new position. It certainly look like it could pull back to at least 3.53.





This post has been edited by danmooncake: Mar 15 2010, 11:57 PM

We're getting closer.. the technicals want to see it at least touch the all time high again before the flood gate opens.

Closing update:
Dow 10642.38 +17.69 +0.17%
Nasdaq 2362.21 -5.45 -0.23%
S&P 500 1150.51 +0.52 +0.05



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Mar 16 2010, 04:11 AM

Yes, I would start a position if ERX drops to 200MA (around $35/36). I would expect Oil price to drop to $75. Oil @ $80 is kinda high. But, there are also words on the street that Oil may want to see $85 first. Crazy huh?

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Added on March 16, 2010, 9:04 pmShort China? Dunno yet. I think I wait for FXP to drop below $8 or closer first. China is a wildcard.
One on hand, they're thinking of tightening, on the other hand, they thinking of continuing double digits growth.

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Added on March 16, 2010, 9:15 pmUp or down? I think for tonight you may see it up.

Dow wants to revisit Jan high again, SPX and NAS wants to break new high and out of the trading range.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Mar 16 2010, 09:15 PM

If C reach 4.22 again, I'll sell into the strength.
I've picked up more yesterday at 3.85 dip after being stop out at $4 last Friday at close.

I'm seeing C price channel between: 3.75 and 4.25 (50 cents spread).

Anyone else seeing it?

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Added on March 17, 2010, 1:45 amhonglun: I'll do a quick comment on S.
S has pivoted at 3.86. Yes, it looks like 20ema is moving up to 50ema and only if they cross, I would buy into it. At that time your price may or may not be 3.59 - could be much lower. I like the price at 50MA 3.53 or lower which I think S is going to test this support price. Better put a stop at 3.50.

Good luck!

Closing update: 5:30am
Dow 10685.98 +43.83 +0.41%
Nasdaq 2378.01 +15.80 +0.67%
S&P 500 1159.46 +8.95 +0.78%

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Mar 17 2010, 04:35 AM

URE has a nice breakout. A whopping 43% gain since Feb 10th.

It is St.Patrick Day in US and Europe. Everything is green!
So sell some into this rally and take profit if you've not done so.

Now, FUQI -> potential "goreng" for day traders for bounce trade.

C - nearing 4.2 again.. come 'mon. You can do it.

By the way, we have reached new highs today.. so if some of you don't lighten up or take some profits on your long holdings.. you may regret it by end of this week.

Good luck!