Closing update
Dow 10293.52 -148.89 -1.43%
Nasdaq 2261.80 -27.29 -1.19%
S&P500  1095.31 -17.89 -1.61%

Market quietly drifting lower after bad housing data at open and sold off at close.
Got out of TCK, ERX, TNA and LVS while still in positive territory during market open.
Took half off for AAPL calls.

I'm hold off shorting here, I think better prices for one last long entry at around SP1085-SP1090 (which is the 20MA).

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Added on June 23, 2010, 8:27 pmLooks like indeed better prices to get back in premarket...
But, things could turn south or north as Uncle Ben is going to meet with the rest of his team. Better stay still and see where FOMC is going take us.


And... of course. tonight: USA versus Algeria. If USA wins.. we'll rally!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 23 2010, 08:54 PM

Closing update:
Dow 10298.44 +4.92 +0.05%
Nasdaq 2254.23 -7.57 -0.33%
S&P500  1092.04 -3.27 -0.30%

It went south, north, south, south, north, north, south, north,..

Anyway,.. no trading for me today. Just staying at sidelines and watch football instead.
Both USA and England finally made it to next round!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 24 2010, 04:12 AM

I'm looking for a short term bottom at around 1070 this time. I'm buying the dips, sell again if it reaches 1100 to 1105.
Tight trading range again.

Update: 11:55pm
Have to bail out of my AAPL July 270 calls for now. Waiting for lower price to get back in.
This market is definitely rolling over. From the looks of it, SP 1070 may not hold till tomorrow.
SP 1040-1050 may be the next target.

Closing update
Dow 10152.80 -145.64 -1.41%
Nasdaq 2217.42 -36.81 -1.63%
S&P500  1073.69 -18.35 -1.68%

SP 1070 managed to hold today, therefore I nibble some here. Got back some AAPL 270 calls at much cheaper price.
Tomorrow is another story. Just 30 more points to triple bottom at 1040 or we can open the hell hole.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 25 2010, 04:36 AM

Not crash but most likely retest lows.
Q1 final GDP looks not too good: 2.7% instead of 3%.

But, US FinReg came thru. Not too bad, banks stocks may rise given all bad stuff taken into account.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 25 2010, 09:03 PM

Yes, washed out at 4.05 on Monday, re-bought back at 3.80 yesterday.
Not sure when.. but C is going to be a long term holding here.

By the way, are you still holding STEC?
Looks like it is about to break out.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 26 2010, 12:47 AM

Well, looks like short term bottom holding. SPX bounced off 1070..
We're going back up.

I'm jumping back into ERX, TNA. Added a bit more TCK.

Closing update
Dow 10143.81 -8.99 -0.09%
Nasdaq 2223.48 +6.06 +0.27%
S&P500 1076.76 +3.07 +0.29%

A mixed closed tonight. We got worse than expected 1st Qtr final GDP, but Q1 final sales is up 0.1 (0.8 vs. 0.7) and a slightly better consumer confidence (76 vs. 75.5).

Pretty much a losing week but the close is marginally better due to financials. Next week, hopefully we can retest 1130 ceiling again into earnings and go higher before the big fall. I'm looking into sell into this rally and short big time if we get to 1150 within the next two to three weeks.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 29 2010, 05:26 AM

US market going sideways until job reports this Friday (which expected to be bad).

Got to to watch if we can hold support at 1070 or drop to next trap door again at 1040.
Short term - we're have a very small bull flag (60 mins chart on SPX) since last Friday. Maybe we can
take this a bit higher before the next big short.

Closing update
Dow 10138.52 -5.29 -0.05%
Nasdaq 2220.65 -2.83 -0.13%
S&P500 1074.57 -2.19 -0.20%

Still holding support here at 1070...volume declining but direction still south bound here.
The big one could be coming soon. Be prepare!




This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 29 2010, 05:25 AM

Correct, market sentiments are still very weak. I am thinking stocks may go up in anticipation for the big job report this Friday and then by the 2nd week (after the July 4th holiday in US), earnings may drive from here. A lot of people will be anticipating to SELL into earnings here.

Got to remain cautious here..

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 29 2010, 09:12 AM

Woopsie.. market is going to tank more tonight. Euro debt issue came back up, Dow going to see below 10K and SP may re-test 1040 again.

1000 points to go.. let see how fast we can get there.

Not too concern about Dow now, still higher than June 8th low of 9726

SP bouncing off 1043.. hopefully, it can close above 1045 otherwise it
will setup for more fall by Friday job numbers which doesn't leave much room for going short at this level.

Now, TZA up 7.5%, TYP up 8.5%, VXX up 6.5%

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 29 2010, 11:29 PM

Same here... hedging and riding 'em down.

Closing update:
Dow 9870.30 -268.22 -2.65%
Nasdaq 2135.18 -85.47 -3.85%
S&P500 1041.24 -33.33 -3.10%

C drops to as low as 3.3 and then it stops trading due to circuit breaker. Then resumes back to 3.8 or so.
It was crazy day. All bad news came in at once.. US Consumer Confidence, Europe and China.

SPX broke below 1040 intraday to as low as 1035 but managed to closed back above 1041. This is very fragile.
If SPX closes below 1040, then we will likely see 950 soon.

I'm in TZA, TYP and VXX premarket. All 3 soars like crazy. I'm cashing out half now.

Still in red in some of long stocks which I'm adding more to long position to average down.
I believe we should get small bounce from tonight hard sell down and plan for exit strategy by Friday before the long weekend. Got to move to defensive position now.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 30 2010, 04:36 AM

Closing update:
Dow 9774.02 -96.28 -0.98%
Nasdaq 2109.24 -25.94 -1.21%
S&P500 1030.71 -10.53 -1.01%

That's it! Key technicals broken. Bears won!
We're going to see a severe down draft here.
Let's continue to ride this thing down!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 1 2010, 04:55 AM

I think we will need more than two bad news... I don't think we will go to 9K in a straight line. It will be staggered, some relief rally forming lower highs and lower lows on the chart.

Tonight we got Jobless Initial Claims - predicted to be bad.. Pending home sales .. most likely weak and car sales.

Big Friday - the big one- Employment. If higher than 9.8% - there will be big drop in the market.
There is a small chance that if there is a upside surprise, the market may rally back up. That's ok,
this will allow the bears to re-short at better price.

It will be 3 day weekend for US (Next Monday - US Independence Day), most people do not want to hold stocks in long weekend and may sell to cash in too.

So. Playing shorts here will likely win until the trend changes.

By Friday - possible 9.5k if only we get another -250 points drop today and tomorrow. If not, next week, will also be another chance. Bear rules for now!

(8:30pm Initial claims - came in worst than expected, 472k vs. 458k.)


US govt finally completely finished their 1st batch of C shares sale
==

Shares of Citigroup © are up 4 cents, or 1%, at $3.80, after the U.S. Treasury announced it sold off 1.1 billion shares of stock in the company as part of its unwinding of the stake it picked up in the bailout of Citi.

Treasury paid an average of $4.03 per share, which is slightly less than the $4.13 per share it got back in late May (by my calculation), netting the Treasury $10.5 billion in gross proceeds. Morgan Stanley (MS) is the agent for these sales.

Treasury said the sale left it with 5.1 billion shares of Citi shares and that it planned to continue selling once the blackout ends around Citi’s quarterly earnings, which is expected take place on July 16.

Interestingly, despite a 5% decline in Citi stock the month or so since the company made its first sale, Treasury has still managed to get the $4 per share, on average, that some observers have opined was essential for Treasury to be willing to sell into the market

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 1 2010, 09:30 PM

Yes for SPX. No for Dow.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 1 2010, 10:05 PM

Update 10pm
Existing home sales in May came in worst than expected, a huge drop: -31% vs. -12% expected.
ISM drops to 56.2 vs. 59 prior.

Oil now drops below $74.

More power to the bears!

Selling will accelerate when we past -100.
Prices will become even cheaper by two weeks.

Being short IS the new LONG here.

I won't buy dips yet until we get past unemployment this Friday and see where it goes.
Now, the monthly trend is down and quarter trend is flatten.

If earnings can't get this back up..2nd dip is very likely.



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 1 2010, 10:31 PM

S&P now is at Oct 09 support neck line. Dow is much better but doesn't look good. Nasdaq being ripped apart.
If funds sell tech to raise cash, that's means trouble (AAPL is being ripped apart now, below $250 ).