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 Stock Market V41, OCTOBEAR vs OCTOBULL - Who's d winner?

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teehk_tee
post Oct 12 2009, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(okw0809 @ Oct 12 2009, 10:11 PM)
Not too long ago, ppl talked about Oct Myth.
Now so positive about market  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif
The mode changes faster than everyone initially thought  tongue.gif
*
lol. laugh.gif
teehk_tee
post Oct 13 2009, 12:42 AM

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FTSE's starting to get lethargic from last week's euphoria. news of government asset sales on the papers probably stole the party. laugh.gif
teehk_tee
post Oct 13 2009, 08:20 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Oct 13 2009, 05:48 PM)
DOW coming to 10,000 very soon.

Before END of MONTH. Big DOG (Dow) earnings coming out, in a row starting today.

Now who says OCTOBER got crash leh??

Most bull moves do not end when they are hated,
They come to a halt and reverse when
they become over-owned and over-loved.

*
dow's approaching a double top at 9930. corporate earnings season will determine whether it breaks 9930 or not. i doubt there'll be enough momentum to carry it above. there just isn't enough volume right now.

on the other hand, i'm a rookie. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by teehk_tee: Oct 13 2009, 08:22 PM
teehk_tee
post Oct 13 2009, 08:59 PM

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ok i've done this, although i don't know whether is even reliable or not.

[attachmentid=1248868]

TA had a breakout following a 3-peak ascending pyramid, descending volume, and thinning of the bollinger band.

[attachmentid=1248881]
Tanjong is showing similar signs of accumulation but the volume trending is a little erratic and volatile. so just my gut feelings, that if a breakout does happen it'll be a minor break to maybe the 16.79 resistance.

entirely hypothetical here. i don't even know whether it'll happen or not. blush.gif but i'm banking on it to get a little KFC for October after starving for a month. laugh.gif


teehk_tee
post Oct 13 2009, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Oct 13 2009, 11:20 PM)
Please say something possitive...  sad.gif
*
positive! i'm positive on certain cyclical stocks now. since institutional investors haven't switched enmasse to defensives, i'll ride on the wave!

but i got no time to do any depth research now.. sad.gif
teehk_tee
post Oct 13 2009, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(tessei @ Oct 13 2009, 11:37 PM)
how about "Lack of demand for dollars has driven the euro, Australian, and New Zealand dollars to 13 month highs, taking out levels last seen during Lehman’s bankruptcy"

- traders still selling USD like no tomorrow.... drool.gif
*
rclxms.gif rclxms.gif GBP is at 5.3567 to the ringgit.
that's one point for making my uni fees cheaper and cheaper!

but JPY crashed to 89.8 against USD after intervention speak by the Japs. sad.gif
teehk_tee
post Oct 13 2009, 11:54 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Oct 13 2009, 11:48 PM)
DJ rising up again

thumbup.gif
*
but tarak volume. unsure.gif


Added on October 13, 2009, 11:54 pm
QUOTE(David_Brent @ Oct 13 2009, 11:48 PM)
GBP=>MYR will be 4.xx after the next election in UK when Cyclops gets his marching orders........
Can't wait! drool.gif
*
geez. 4.xx? WOW!

This post has been edited by teehk_tee: Oct 13 2009, 11:54 PM
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post Oct 13 2009, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Oct 13 2009, 11:57 PM)
CI also tarak volume
also fly sky high
treat stocks market as magical show
it's always unbelievable  thumbup.gif
*
yeah.. crazy show. especially the banks. keep going up up up up up up. doh.gif
teehk_tee
post Oct 14 2009, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Oct 13 2009, 11:59 PM)
rclxm9.gif
You're the economist - you can figure out the fiscal situation pretty accurately (give or take 10 or 20 billion pounds) on the back of an envelope, I would have thought! laugh.gif
*
yeah it's bad alright.. but .. to have 4.xx on the face of BNM strongly depressing the ringgit.. that'd be unbelievable but i'll be over the moon laugh.gif
teehk_tee
post Oct 14 2009, 12:19 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Oct 14 2009, 12:11 AM)
That's true....but why would BNM strongly depress the ringgit? (i do agree that it looks that way, by the way.)
50%++ of Malaysia's earnings are O&G related (priced in USD) and the country isn't so dependent on finished goods sales to the US as (say) China, Japan, Korea....... hmm.gif
*
i suppose because our country is heavily dependent on trade with the US. it's the second largest partner anyway. if i remember correctly... tbh BNM buying up excess ringgit isn't doing much. ringgit is still expected to rise against every currency including SGD.

not disproportionate rises (i'd love those) but maybe a rise of 5% before next March.

This post has been edited by teehk_tee: Oct 14 2009, 12:24 AM
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post Oct 14 2009, 12:31 AM

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QUOTE(zenquix @ Oct 14 2009, 12:25 AM)
even our foreign reserves will be adversely impacted as majority is USD denominated.
*
at the moment reserves still rising by some 3bil US$ a month. sept was 96bil US$ if not wrong.

slow recovery compared to the regional economies. doh.gif
teehk_tee
post Oct 14 2009, 12:47 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 14 2009, 12:33 AM)
If RM going to fast, it will hurt exporters. Do remember, bulk of export is E&E, (electrical and electronic product) which is sensitive to pricing. If RM appreciate too much, it means Malaysia product become more expensive and will drive importer to source alternative place.

Malaysia gov earning, 50% is come from O&G, but not on export side, it is 2 different things. See the export figure breakdown will explain it all.

Malaysia economy rely heavily on E&E and export orientated product which is one of the main driving force and job provider in the countries.


Added on October 14, 2009, 12:39 am

Foreign reserves increment depended on trade surplus as well as capital inflow.

As we know, there is only a few foreign participant in local stock market, so there is little inflow of capital which can result in surge of foreign reserves.

Foreign reserves doesn't represent the strength of economy recovery or not.

In fact, if domestic demand is strong, you will see foreign reserves dipping because local people have strong purchasing power to buy goods from overseas i.e. import a lot resulted a trade deficit, which happened before 1997 crisis. Since after 1997, Malaysia and Asian region countries never has a trade deficit.

Having said that, trade deficit is not good for the currency. But too high trade surplus also not good, as it just means you rely heavily on export, while your domestic demand is weak, i.e. your people have low purchasing power in other word, your people earn little.
*
notworthy.gif notworthy.gif excellent insight cherroy. thanks a lot!


Added on October 14, 2009, 12:50 ami've always thought that reserves were strongly correlated to economy strength. but now that u mention domestic consumption it lights up the entire room! notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by teehk_tee: Oct 14 2009, 12:50 AM
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post Oct 14 2009, 01:12 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 14 2009, 01:05 AM)
China has trillion of foreign currency reserves in USD. While USD has tiny foreign currency reserves (they don't need to have at all, because want USD? print it! it is their own currency)
US has negligible foreign currency reserves, which is much lower than Malaysia, because foreign currency reserves is not applicable for US and useless as every trade (with US) in the world is about USD.

But US economy is stronger and 3x larger than China due to its internal strength ie. domestic/consumer demand which make the countries economy strong.

A good and strength of economy come from balancing on both side, either one will means something is not right.
Btw,
One way to track whether foreign fund is entering KLSE or not can through BNM foreign currency reserves as well.
If there is huge inflow, you will see some jump up in foreign currency reserves figure.
*
yeah i'm monitoring that figure to see any foreign money entering the market or not. thanks for letting know flex.gif
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post Oct 14 2009, 08:42 PM

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Fooooooohhhh

i love KNM! wub.gif
teehk_tee
post Oct 14 2009, 09:23 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Oct 14 2009, 09:20 PM)
yes, every1 including me ... now? Rm7 and will not stop there. PANA got few kilos of Maybeng..  brows.gif
*
wasn't it in the news that Maybank was going for another bank acquisition again? might be taking over toxic holdings from the singaporeans like BII.
brows.gifbrows.gif

banks a having a field dayyyyy
teehk_tee
post Oct 14 2009, 10:00 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Oct 14 2009, 09:53 PM)
There's more behind it.

USD is so cheap, interest is cheap as well. So, can consider NYSE /US market as cheap to invest..
*
i wouldn't consider any reverse in the carry trade just yet. a increase in foreign investors would see the dollar appreciate even by a little bit. but dollar's still rolling down.

the only reason i can think of is the market is flushed with dollars, and everyone's trying to get a piece of the pie. even if it includes investing in asian economies.

This post has been edited by teehk_tee: Oct 14 2009, 10:01 PM
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post Oct 14 2009, 11:24 PM

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QUOTE
Cairn agrees Petronas farm-out, India stake sale

Date: Wednesday 14 Oct 2009

LONDON (ShareCast) - Cairn Energy has agreed to farm out a 10% interest in its existing six operated blocks offshore Greenland and sell a stake in its Indian business to Malaysia’s Petronas.

The Edinburgh-based oil and gas exploration and production company said Petronas has upped its stake in Cairn India (CIL) by 2.3% to almost 15%.

It will pay $240m for the Cairn India shares and $70m for the Greenland position.

Petronas also has an option to double its interest in the Greenland blocks to 20% in return for extra payment.

"We are delighted that Petronas is joining with us in Greenland as we take forward our leading exploration position,” said Cairn boss Bill Gammell.

“The acquisition of additional CIL shares by Petronas reflects our shared belief in the continuing growth potential of Rajasthan while giving Cairn increased financial and operational flexibility in line with our growing confidence in Greenland."

http://www.halifaxmarketwatch.co.uk/news?a...62239&view=full

didn't know whether it could be of relevance or not but it didn't pop up in any local media streams.
teehk_tee
post Oct 14 2009, 11:38 PM

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QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Oct 14 2009, 11:29 PM)
at least maybank will raise.
If you buy TM or YTLPOWR, be prepare to buy and sell at same price.. wink.gif

CIMB already too high. PBBANK also quite high.
Leftover is MAYBANK and AMBANK.

Maybank was once RM11++
*
i'd have to agree for all YTL-related stocks.

like a freaking iceberg.


Added on October 14, 2009, 11:40 pmif dow ends past 10000. i'm pretty sure KNM's going to make a killing in the markets tomorrow rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif

This post has been edited by teehk_tee: Oct 14 2009, 11:40 PM
teehk_tee
post Oct 15 2009, 02:07 AM

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geez. if yesterday's bullishness can propel KNM up 4.5 sen with over 90mil shares done, breaking 10k might bring it up to 90 sens icon_idea.gif

time to release some KNM! laugh.gif woohoo!


Added on October 15, 2009, 2:09 am
QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 15 2009, 12:19 AM)
You do not know your currency is cheap or low if you don't go outside to see.

Just like RM is appreciating against USD (be it rising or dropping), do you know? You don't know until you are doing export/import or need to have forex transaction involved.

As with USD is depreciating a lot, it mean higher profit for Microsoft (as they report porift based in USD), so with higher profit, higher share price. Share price always follow the profit figure which is the basic of stock investment.

Those buying share one are not from blue collar workforce that are jobless at current moment, but from mostly from rich one, hedge funds, mutual funds etc.
*
1000% agreed.

This post has been edited by teehk_tee: Oct 15 2009, 02:09 AM
teehk_tee
post Oct 15 2009, 08:32 AM

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thursdays usually is green anyway from our own LYN historical data.

really anxious for market to open so i can release some KNM, and go to sleep with a peaceful mind laugh.gif

COME ON KNM!! GO GO GO GO 88 sens today!! wub.gif


Added on October 15, 2009, 8:34 amlol tanjong theoretical-opening at 16.00 WHAT! tongue.gif

This post has been edited by teehk_tee: Oct 15 2009, 08:34 AM

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