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 Stock Market V40, Do you believe in October Myth?

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aurora97
post Sep 23 2009, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(Babablacksheep @ Sep 23 2009, 11:08 AM)
Any idea how to purchase Maxis IPO?
Through CIMB E-IPO?
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My comments deleted [ irrelevant ]

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Perhaps u should take a look at this thread...

http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1135497

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And for CIMB - E-IPO more details

https://www.eipocimb.com/web/faqEIPO.asp

This post has been edited by aurora97: Sep 23 2009, 11:21 AM
aurora97
post Sep 23 2009, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(protonw @ Sep 23 2009, 12:33 PM)
O&G counters almost all red....   what happens???? sad.gif
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Oil Falls After Industry Report Shows Increase in Fuel Supplies

Sos tiram hitam

CPO/Plantation counter traders- related news:

SoS Minyak Sawit

This post has been edited by aurora97: Sep 23 2009, 12:42 PM
aurora97
post Sep 23 2009, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Sep 23 2009, 12:39 PM)
Oil Falls After Industry Report Shows Increase in Fuel Supplies

Sos tiram hitam

CPO/Plantation counter traders- related news:

SoS Minyak Sawit
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A Tale of two different stories:

Crude oil price to climb by year-end

SOS

Malaysia's CPO to benefit from India's rising imports

Who needs Europe, when we got India importing Palm Oil

aurora97
post Sep 23 2009, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Sep 23 2009, 04:22 PM)
Speaking as an existing OILCRAP shareholder, the sudden interest in this excellent counter is very encouraging.... brows.gif
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Perhaps its caused by the assurance given by the company that its going to pay the interest due, further explaining why they were unable to pay the due is an added plus (to some investors at least) i.e. receipt of "Large Receivables" delayed.

the selling of shares by its major s/hs probably is just a bid to cause panic, wouldnt be suprised if the same ppl (or proxies) came back in at a significantly lower price?
aurora97
post Sep 23 2009, 04:42 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 23 2009, 04:37 PM)
sweat.gif 

Major shareholders + directors have been dumping their stake ceased become substaintial shareholders + resignation of independent director + default in interest payment + financial result has been showing significant decline over the past 5 years (constantly drop down even though economy is booming and oil price sky-rocketing during 2006-2008 prior before crisis set in) + cashflow difficulty + potential PN17 if the default issue not being resolved.

So above are your bet risk.  laugh.gif

Don't mean discouraging or comment good or bad on it. Judge your own.

PS: The stock can jump if the company resolve the default issue and cashflow issue, but still 1 million default in the payment of interest is a relative small sum, it is puzzling and troubling why company default it, this is one of major clue or puzzle that is very important.
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Added.

that said it really depends how the interest payment is structured, whether payable month/quarterly/yearly.

If payable monthly - probably one can be forgiven

If payable yearly - some cause for concern..

than again we are not privy to the facility agreement.
aurora97
post Sep 23 2009, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 23 2009, 04:43 PM)
A company that has 400+ mil receivable and 900 million in balance sheet cannot take out a peanut of 1 million loan/OD or any finance facilities to pay off the interest payment? is something I cannot comprehend.
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Ans below

QUOTE(David_Brent @ Sep 23 2009, 04:43 PM)
That's one 'conspiracy theory' that crossed my mind. But there are a number of inexplicable issues that need to be clarified. OILFAB is still getting good contracts - they got 51% of that. The receivables issue is the main question mark IMHO.


Added on September 23, 2009, 4:45 pm
Spot on. That's what's confusing me.
At the current share price the market values the entire business at around RM60million. The break-up value is worth way more than that, surely?
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Getting contracts doesn;t necessarily mean u get paid immediately, u still have to fork out some money first to get everything mobilized.

QUOTE(aurora97 @ Sep 23 2009, 04:42 PM)
Added.

that said it really depends how the interest payment is structured, whether payable month/quarterly/yearly.

If payable monthly - probably one can be forgiven

If payable yearly - some cause for concern..


than again we are not privy to the facility agreement.
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Further i doubt such growth companies, i doubt they have much cash in hand/bank (liquid) all the time on standby. Nevertheless, such occurence is definately embarrassing for a PLc.

Case in pt...
When desperate in need of monies... Assets worth 40m tend to dissapear i.e. Maxbiz.

This post has been edited by aurora97: Sep 23 2009, 04:49 PM
aurora97
post Sep 23 2009, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Sep 23 2009, 04:47 PM)
Monthly over five years to Aeon and CapOne IIRC. 50 million at 7.15% from 2005 if I'm not mistaken.
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30 days grace period..

So the existing interest of 1m would have to be + default interest + interest accrued to date of payment (4 existing interest) +/- it would probably be more or less balloning up to the region 2m.

that would be interesting..

the interest which is due in Oct 09 will also be falling due (shud be the 17th of each month)..

+/- OilCorp will have to fork out about 4m in interest alone.

S/hers arent going to be too enthusiastic about this.



This post has been edited by aurora97: Sep 23 2009, 04:58 PM
aurora97
post Sep 23 2009, 05:06 PM

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Maxbiz fails to trace missing assets

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aurora97
post Sep 23 2009, 05:17 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Sep 23 2009, 05:09 PM)
Hey, are you going to accumulate more TM? Can still buy TM now or wait lower?  hmm.gif
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Stopped accum, now holding and considering reducing, cause i don't want to put too many eggs in one basket. TM consist of a substantial % in my portfolio.

i "think" still can accum.

For absolute certainty RM 3.0x


aurora97
post Sep 23 2009, 05:46 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 23 2009, 05:25 PM)
This I understood fully, but those debt and interest payment is something you can forseeable one, especially only 1 million. You don't wake up tomorrow and find out company has no 1 million to pay.

It is not about embrassing, but it (default) will affect greatly on company credit rating, and ability to raise borrowing in the future, which is very important for future financing.
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the part highlighted in bold, i believe the company should have made provisions for it in the first place.

Also note, Oilcorp did write to the trustees on the 15th (interest was payable on the 17th), 2 days prior to the payment date asking for grace period... Hence there was deliberate intention to default on interest by oilcorp.

It is also further noted, the Bank (and its associates/cohorts) did not exercise its rights i.e. to trigger an event of default which would entail the payment of interest + principal sum. (event of default = is a discretionary instrument/remedy of the Lender).

My assumption would be grace period has been extended to Oilcorp. (i.e. providing proof of Large Receivables due to Oilcorp in exchange for grace)

Question:
Why 2 days notice to the Lenders?

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Speculation only

In any case, defaulting is bad (impact of credit rating - in this case i doubt OilCorp has an investment grade rating, more likely than not they have to give collateral up to their eyeballs), nonetheless whether investors like it or not "default" is a common occurence. Some are announced to the world at large in this case Oilcorp and others... perhaps we will never hear of (this part i say with some experience).

OilCorp lenders played it by the book to protect their interest, my assumption is OilCorp didnt exactly have an impressive track record that is why they did what all Lenders whom have followed the book should have done especially for a PLc.

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Finally, its all assumptions, let see how it plays out.

This post has been edited by aurora97: Sep 23 2009, 05:47 PM
aurora97
post Sep 24 2009, 08:17 AM

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QUOTE(protonw @ Sep 24 2009, 07:56 AM)
Hope today is sale day.... drool.gif
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double edge sword today, wif the Fed threatening to pull the stimulus pack may be signal the end of a recession is near and enough of breast feeding.

on the other hand, if the Feds pull the carpet too soon from right underneath investors.. a house of cards will start to collapse.

05:25 24Sep09 RTRS-US STOCKS-Wall St drops on Fed stimulus withdrawal fears

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «



Added on September 24, 2009, 8:17 amit could even rally today?

**************

Crude Oil Drops a Second Day After Unexpected U.S. Supply Gain

SOS - Kicap Hitam



This post has been edited by aurora97: Sep 24 2009, 08:52 AM
aurora97
post Sep 24 2009, 08:56 AM

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Analysts: Maxis' lustre lies in yield, mart share and margins

SOS Maxis

aurora97
post Sep 24 2009, 08:57 AM

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07:40 24Sep09 RTRS-VEGOILS-Weaker oil, commodities markets may weigh
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The following factors are

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aurora97
post Sep 24 2009, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(protonw @ Sep 24 2009, 08:58 AM)
Thanks Aurara that I have something to occupy.  icon_rolleyes.gif


Added on September 24, 2009, 9:01 am
All RED  sad.gif
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There is Maxis, Digi, TM, Axiata and ? to pick from... its getting uber confusing.

The write up looks very tempting but i am personally concern with rushing in too early especially right after the IPO (when the cake just come out of the oven).

If it were up to me i would have picked up some TM & Axiata to counter Maxis and Digi effect. (and may be some maxis just in case i was wrong - hedging doh.gif tongue.gif doh.gif )


aurora97
post Sep 24 2009, 09:21 AM

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QUOTE(Ninjitsu @ Sep 24 2009, 09:18 AM)
What's happening to poor Oilcrap?
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QUOTE(espree @ Sep 24 2009, 09:19 AM)
It's time to pick up?
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General Announcement
Reference No OO-090923-EAA9E

Company Name : OILCORP BERHAD
Stock Name : OILCORP
Date Announced : 23/09/2009


Type : Announcement
Subject : : Oilcorp Berhad (“OILCORP or the Company”):
• PRACTICE NOTE 17/2005 ("PN 17")
• FIRST ANNOUNCEMENT

Contents : Pursuant to the Practice Note 17/2005 ("PN 17") of the Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad ("Bursa Securities") ("Listing Requirements"), the Board of Directors of Oilcorp wishes to announce that Oilcorp is classified as an Affected Listed Issuer pursuant to paragraph 2.1(f) of PN 17 ("First Announcement") as the Company has defaulted in its interest payments announced pursuant to Practice Note 1/2001 on 18 September 2009 and the Company is unable to provide a Solvency Declaration to Bursa Securities.

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This post has been edited by aurora97: Sep 24 2009, 09:22 AM
aurora97
post Sep 24 2009, 09:28 AM

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Market turning green too early ...
aurora97
post Sep 24 2009, 09:32 AM

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QUOTE(whizzer @ Sep 24 2009, 09:30 AM)
PN17 does wonders for stock price  tongue.gif
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8% more and limit down, anyone want to sell better do it now or hold your breath.

they should have announced it yesterday about the PN17, so at least OilCorp can take the full hit and recover faster.

Instead they announced it 6.16pm ... *sigh*
aurora97
post Sep 24 2009, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(tobetest @ Sep 24 2009, 09:34 AM)
close 1 21.5 profit taken, wait one
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30 mins make 4 pts profit (-1 pt for fees) thumbup.gif
aurora97
post Sep 24 2009, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(skylands @ Sep 24 2009, 09:45 AM)
price below $1 ( $0.99) limit down is $0.30 not 30%
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Oops i was treating it as though it was a main board cter, pai seh. sweat.gif

If really hits 30c limit down, i think more or less same price with a 5* hotel char kuey teow.
aurora97
post Sep 24 2009, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Sep 24 2009, 10:10 AM)
On this PN17 thingy: does anyone know how it works?
Is it the company that declares itself in PN17 (like Chapter 11 in the States) or is it Bursa Malaysia that forces/declares the company in PN17?
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PN 17 only means the company is Insolvent (not enough liquid cash)
PN 17 entails loads of restrictions like monthly reporting, regularisation plan/proposal and close monitoring by Bursa, failing the conditions set out in the announcement... OilCorp may end up being booted from the Exchange.

Chap 11 is similar to our winding up/bankruptcy actions

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NEW UPdate - looks like bad news.

Interest default has changed to default on loan - this means the Lenders have (or at least going to) deployed their weapons of massive destruction, all other creditors will start knocking on OilCorps door very soon.

that is if talking fails to coax the Lenders into extending its grace period...

Oilcorp slumps 23pc, extends slide

OILCORP Bhd, an oil and gas engineering services provider, slumped 23 per cent to 20.5 sen, extending yesterday’s 16 per cent slide.

The stock is headed for the sharpest drop since December 10.

The company, which defaulted on a loan, said it will appoint a principal adviser shortly as it continues talks with its lenders.

It does not have a formal plan at present to address its financial condition, it said in a statement. - Bloomberg

SOS hitem pucat

This post has been edited by aurora97: Sep 24 2009, 10:26 AM

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