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 Stock Market V36: Return of the Bull, Part IV, Bull defies Newton's Law of Gravity

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Ka3tr0
post Jul 30 2009, 11:20 PM

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Wah...DJ so green tonight..luck today used 1/6 bullet to buy KNM...
zamans98
post Jul 30 2009, 11:22 PM

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QUOTE(Ka3tr0 @ Jul 30 2009, 11:20 PM)
Wah...DJ so green tonight..luck today used 1/6 bullet to buy KNM...
*
whoa, 1/6, that is about 30K!
Ka3tr0
post Jul 30 2009, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Jul 30 2009, 11:22 PM)
whoa, 1/6, that is about 30K!
*
Woit..u track my account ka sweat.gif ..50k to be exact.. whistling.gif
kmarc
post Jul 30 2009, 11:30 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 30 2009, 11:13 PM)
Definitely Irrational Exuberance.

We are so top heavy, I'm expecting a nice pullback.. but just too many
dip buyers at the door.

The earnings are guided so low, most companies can beat 'em easily.

All "less bad" become "Recession is Over!"
This is pure madness!! I tell ya!

Everyone is taking ecstasy pill. By next quarter, reality may come in and say..
hey.. where's the earnings, where's the growth, where's the jobs?
*
I agree with you. Waiting for a pullback too.

However, the market seems to ignore this and keeps on rallying up. Investors entering the market recently will either reap huge rewards if the market do continue its upward trend or get caught again if it goes the other way. I'd rather think it is the latter.... hmm.gif
David_Brent
post Jul 30 2009, 11:33 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 30 2009, 11:13 PM)
Definitely Irrational Exuberance.

We are so top heavy, I'm expecting a nice pullback.. but just too many
dip buyers at the door.

The earnings are guided so low, most companies can beat 'em easily.

All "less bad" become "Recession is Over!"
This is pure madness!! I tell ya!

Everyone is taking ecstasy pill. By next quarter, reality may come in and say..
hey.. where's the earnings, where's the growth, where's the jobs?
*
Hmmmm - strange, maybe a new supply from Columbia in town? laugh.gif

There are definitely a lot of nasty surprises still hidden under the carpet and the banks (especially in Europe) have not 'fessed up yet....not even close. hmm.gif

This 'queasing' by western governments is having a strange effect.

"The law of unintended consequences" springs to mind....or do governments WANT to markets to boom?

P.S. to Jason - Unemployment is NOT stabilizing - it is going to get a whole lot worse in the US, UK and Europe before it gets better IMO.


Added on July 30, 2009, 11:35 pm
QUOTE(Ka3tr0 @ Jul 30 2009, 11:26 PM)
Woit..u track my account ka sweat.gif ..50k to be exact.. whistling.gif
*
Sell at 1.07??? drool.gif

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Jul 30 2009, 11:35 PM
jasontoh
post Jul 30 2009, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Jul 30 2009, 11:33 PM)
Hmmmm - strange, maybe a new supply from Columbia in town? laugh.gif

There are definitely a lot of nasty surprises still hidden under the carpet and the banks (especially in Europe) have not 'fessed up yet....not even close. hmm.gif

This 'queasing' by western governments is having a strange effect.

"The law of unintended consequences" springs to mind....or do governments WANT to markets to boom?

P.S. to Jason -  Unemployment is NOT stabilizing - it is going to get a whole lot worse in the US, UK and Europe before it gets better IMO.


Added on July 30, 2009, 11:35 pm
Sell at 1.07??? drool.gif
*
Well, I only worry we will be suffering as there are rumours that US Govt is giving incentives for MNC to redeploy back to US. So if that is the case, I wonder how the unemployment in Msia would look like
Ka3tr0
post Jul 30 2009, 11:43 PM

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Hopefully DB, hopefully...

if it go down, will use 100k at 80 cents and another 150k at 70 cents
David_Brent
post Jul 30 2009, 11:44 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Jul 30 2009, 11:40 PM)
Well, I only worry we will be suffering as there are rumours that US Govt is giving incentives for MNC to redeploy back to US. So if that is the case, I wonder how the unemployment in Msia would look like
*
The thing about unemployment in Malaysia is that there are absolutely NO RELIABLE NUMBERS...
That is one of the big reasons FFs won't invest here. hmm.gif
What data/statistics from the GUBMINT are there that anyone in their right mind would rely on? icon_rolleyes.gif


Added on July 30, 2009, 11:46 pm
QUOTE(Ka3tr0 @ Jul 30 2009, 11:43 PM)
Hopefully DB, hopefully...

if it go down, will use 100k at 80 cents and another 150k at 70 cents
*
rclxms.gif
I like your style! notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Jul 30 2009, 11:46 PM
cherroy
post Jul 30 2009, 11:52 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 30 2009, 11:13 PM)
Definitely Irrational Exuberance.

We are so top heavy, I'm expecting a nice pullback.. but just too many
dip buyers at the door.

The earnings are guided so low, most companies can beat 'em easily.

All "less bad" become "Recession is Over!"
This is pure madness!! I tell ya!

Everyone is taking ecstasy pill. By next quarter, reality may come in and say..
hey.. where's the earnings, where's the growth, where's the jobs?
*
You know what, now even hedge fund managers are 'kiasu' right now. Everyone scare not having enough equities so that their report card won't be lag behind the market.

Previously, people scare off depression, now they scare off not investing enough!

If market is going up more, and you as a fund manager doesn't buy enought to on par with broader market performance or indices, you are screwed big time, could hurt your performance rating big time.

That's why market is up, up and up, never pull back at all. Everyone is buying, whether want to buy or need to buy.

Just like locally, once people put money in ASM, PNB only mandate is to buy stock in the market eventually KLCI continue to go up, disregard whether the stock price is a bit on the high side or has risen too fast or too much. They need to buy. They can't put your money in bank as cash. This is what happening right now.

As long as there is no seller that urgent to sell or need the cash one, some buying activities will suppport the market already.

Having said that, we need real economy recovery, and earning recovery over the long term so that this rally has a real leg.


alivecmh
post Jul 30 2009, 11:55 PM

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Any comment about Ramunia ?? 3 August is coming .. Will SIME sign the contract or withdraw at last minute ?
zamans98
post Jul 30 2009, 11:58 PM

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QUOTE(Ka3tr0 @ Jul 30 2009, 11:26 PM)
Woit..u track my account ka sweat.gif ..50k to be exact.. whistling.gif
*
aiya. salah calculate... should be near 300, coz u made back on KNN, eh salah KNM

So, target KNM only meh? How about other counters?

Im still stuck with SAHAGG, SCAMMY, LIONCRAP, and SEASUNK.. haizzz. move-it, move-it.

Feels like the bull will charge again.. time to UNLOAD and lay low.

CCB anyone?
Mika
post Jul 31 2009, 12:04 AM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Jul 30 2009, 10:31 PM)
there's a couple peeps here that's already gonna hold hands (hopefully not to holland) on this stock tomorrow. maybe big shots naz, sky, proton, david, zamans, nujika gonna be in too tongue.gif

speaking of which.. havent heard from moorish in a while.
*
small shots, add me..... laugh.gif
nujikabane
post Jul 31 2009, 12:21 AM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Jul 30 2009, 10:31 PM)
there's a couple peeps here that's already gonna hold hands (hopefully not to holland) on this stock tomorrow. maybe big shots naz, sky, proton, david, zamans, nujika gonna be in too tongue.gif

speaking of which.. havent heard from moorish in a while.
*
LOL apa big shot, me kasi pagi, makan pagi, kais petang, makan petang fella. Sometimes no money eat yesterday's leftovers, haha.
Decided not to jump to CCB.

For one, I have just look at the charts, no research done. And i've seen that the counter is inactive most time of the year, so might have liquidity issue there.
And by the look of things, I believe people will Q like crazy tomorrow, so the price will soar, since the shareholders would rather keep the stocks for dividend than to realise their capital.
Freelancer
post Jul 31 2009, 12:21 AM

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Well.. Europe very green.. currently US very green too. Oil up almost 5%.


Tomorrow ours sure rally. If not, donno what else to say.. haha. biggrin.gif
nujikabane
post Jul 31 2009, 12:24 AM

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QUOTE(Freelancer @ Jul 31 2009, 12:21 AM)
Well.. Europe very green.. currently US very green too. Oil up almost 5%.
Tomorrow ours sure rally. If not, donno what else to say.. haha.  biggrin.gif
*
Hopefully it rallies.
If not, then Bursa is the only stock exchange that forgot to take via g ra.
But then, maybe it' already taken to much, OD, suddenly got heart attack, and terkulai di tepi jalan, haha.

Bursa, flex.gif
David_Brent
post Jul 31 2009, 12:28 AM

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QUOTE(nujikabane @ Jul 31 2009, 12:21 AM)
LOL apa big shot, me kasi pagi, makan pagi, kais petang, makan petang fella. Sometimes no money eat yesterday's leftovers, haha.
Decided not to jump to CCB.

For one, I have just look at the charts, no research done. And i've seen that the counter is inactive most time of the year, so might have liquidity issue there.
And by the look of things, I believe people will Q like crazy tomorrow, so the price will soar, since the shareholders would rather keep the stocks for dividend than to realise their capital.
*
Totally agree rclxms.gif
Posted a comment on the sub-forum; if you're inside you'll do fine....but for retail (or any kind of) investors, this counter does not tick any of the right boxes - not by a long way, IMHO hmm.gif
nujikabane
post Jul 31 2009, 12:30 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Jul 31 2009, 12:28 AM)
Totally agree  rclxms.gif
Posted a comment on the sub-forum; if you're inside you'll do fine....but for retail (or any kind of) investors, this counter does not tick any of the right boxes - not by a long way, IMHO hmm.gif
*
OT : Agree what ? That I'm not a big shot, that I'm a pauper ? Isy ini menimbulkan marah ! LOL

Agree with you too. This is the type of counter that got electric jolt everytime it announces dividend, and after that, goes back into deep slumber.
David_Brent
post Jul 31 2009, 12:32 AM

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QUOTE(nujikabane @ Jul 31 2009, 12:24 AM)
Hopefully it rallies.
If not, then Bursa is the only stock exchange that forgot to take via g ra.
But then, maybe it' already taken to much, OD, suddenly got heart attack, and terkulai di tepi jalan, haha.

Bursa,  flex.gif
*
Our problem here is very simple:

1. Transparency
2. Liquidity
3. Confidence

All three are inter-related; if the powers that be do not or can not get ALL THREE right then we won't move forward.
IMHO - Just my opinion only.

This statement does not constitute an offer to sell or buy securities.....your country is at risk if you do not keep up re-payments secured on it.....blah.....blah......blah......etc......etc......etc.......

laugh.gif


Added on July 31, 2009, 12:38 am
QUOTE(nujikabane @ Jul 31 2009, 12:30 AM)
OT : Agree what ? That I'm not a big shot, that I'm a pauper ? Isy ini menimbulkan marah ! LOL
Me no speakee da malayu tuan..... rclxub.gif


This post has been edited by David_Brent: Jul 31 2009, 12:38 AM
danmooncake
post Jul 31 2009, 05:50 AM

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NYSE update:

DJ 9154.46 +83.74 +0.92%
NAS 1984.30 +16.54 1.19%
S&P500 986.75 +11.60 +1.19%

Today is like a black swan event to me. sad.gif
This is totally unexpected. The bulls not suppose to get this far but it did.
Yes, I was shorting energy.. this time, the market caught me. vmad.gif

Last night morning, the crude oil was pretty bad. I was expecting it pull back to 60.
US inventory was all time high: 5.1 milllion barrels of crude overstock
Exxon/Esso (XOM) one of the dow component missed its earnings big time.
66% drop from last year, reported 0.83/share instead of expected 1.01/share.
Steel and copper inventory was overflowing into Thames @ LME, China not buying, etc.

Even the US jobless claim came out bad but the media spins as yet again as good.
Less than 1 hour later. The Dow rallies 3 digits up. shocking.gif What's the news?
Oil lost -3 yesterday, today, it gained back +5 with no fundamentals support.

Only at close, the Dow give back some as teaser. cry.gif

Tomorrow, US 2nd Qtr GDP will be released.. as usual, even it is a bad number, because the bulls
are so pumped up with v-i-a-g-r-a, the bears will get sodomized no matter.

Mr. Market. I gotta give it to you. notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 31 2009, 06:21 AM
Ka3tr0
post Jul 31 2009, 07:11 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 31 2009, 05:50 AM)
NYSE update:

DJ 9154.46 +83.74 +0.92%
NAS 1984.30 +16.54 1.19%
S&P500 986.75 +11.60 +1.19%

Today is like a black swan event to me.  sad.gif
This is totally unexpected.  The bulls not suppose to get this far but it did. 
Yes, I was shorting energy.. this time, the market caught me.  vmad.gif

Last night morning, the crude oil was pretty bad.  I was expecting it pull back to 60.
US inventory was all time high: 5.1 milllion barrels of crude overstock
Exxon/Esso (XOM) one of the dow component missed its earnings big time.
66% drop from last year, reported 0.83/share instead of expected 1.01/share.
Steel and copper inventory was overflowing into Thames @ LME, China not buying, etc.

Even the US jobless claim came out bad but the media spins as yet again as good.
Less than 1 hour later. The Dow rallies 3 digits up.  shocking.gif   What's the news?
Oil lost -3 yesterday, today, it gained back +5 with no fundamentals support.

Only at close, the Dow give back some as teaser.   cry.gif

Tomorrow, US 2nd Qtr GDP will be released.. as usual, even it is a bad number, because the bulls
are so pumped up with v-i-a-g-r-a, the bears will get sodomized no matter.

Mr. Market.  I gotta give it to you. notworthy.gif
*
Let me give u an insight of the O&G business...most of the operator had learnt their mistake 4-6 yrs ago where they cut back most of the exploration/development drilling campaign due to oil price...i believe somewhere around 30-60 dollar / bbl...there's always a clause in the rigs contract whereby the rig rate would follow the oil price trend...if it goes up by certain amount, their day rate goes up by certain amount....at the peak of the bubble last year, there were short of rigs all over the world...

Now that the oil price has come back down, and the rig rate become cheaper, the operators are doubling their exploration campaign. It takes 2-3 yrs from discovery to 1st oil..it will be interesting to see how this would impact O&G operator in another 3-4 yrs..i bet they will make tons of money....the only obstacle right now is to get the demand back..no demand = cheap oil price, simple as that. Watch out for those company that has close tie to Petronas..Scomi, KNM, Petronas has a tendency to bring this company where ever they go, 30 over country to list..I believe they will benefit alot from that move so watch out for them...FYI, On average, cost to produce 1 bbl of crude should lie somewhere around ~20-30 dollar for offshore operation...Just my 2 cents

----

I wanna see CCB firework today

This post has been edited by Ka3tr0: Jul 31 2009, 08:21 AM

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