Yeah.. US has too much inventory. Oil will go back $50.
Other commodity like steel, copper, etc.. all over-bought and tanking big time.

Sell Sell Sell!! It is going to be cheap again.

Also, the US treasury auction was pretty weak..China doesn't want to buy.

It might be time to be a bear again.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 30 2009, 05:35 AM

China already exploding now.. not next year. Read the news!
More pullback on today.

Commodity accumulation by China too much.. no where to go, products made stored in warehouse.
Where are the buyers? We're doom again!

The bubble is getting bigger.. it needs to be deflated a bit.

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Added on July 30, 2009, 9:25 amThat's for sure making money alright.. but not sure if their own internal consumption is strong or not.
Inventory of raw materials certainly overflow every where.

Sooner or later, they'll start dumping.

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Added on July 30, 2009, 9:28 amThat's just a formality. A lot of brokerages do not allow it already.
Even some leverage ETFs have also been banned.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 30 2009, 09:29 AM

No lah.. regulated short selling means need to borrow to sell short.. must have the uptick rule.

Naked short selling means NO NEED to borrow, simply press button and SELL SELL SELL,
causing the price to plummet like crazy.

Aka. Bear Raid strategy..
Look at happened to Lehman Brothers last year.

China is a bubble in the making already. Their govt is very worry that people are borrowing cheap money
to buy speculative stocks instead of "investing" or building business or infrastructure.

China is the next America (becoming spenders).

America is the next China (becoming savers).

Believe it or not.. only 25% of the US Stimulus money that was allocated
is spent. US is moving very slowly.

China spent already 75% of its 585 billion. Therefore, looks like China
economy is rebounding so fast, so hot.. and yet.. very bubbly and dangerous.

The mad bulls of NYSE attacking again..
DJ rallying up 150+

Oil going back to $65, following stocks with weak fundalmentals.

Exxon (Esso) posted loss. missed earnings, lacking revenue.. but market still rallies.

People are buying like crazy.

Definitely Irrational Exuberance.

We are so top heavy, I'm expecting a nice pullback.. but just too many
dip buyers at the door.

The earnings are guided so low, most companies can beat 'em easily.

All "less bad" become "Recession is Over!"
This is pure madness!! I tell ya!

Everyone is taking ecstasy pill. By next quarter, reality may come in and say..
hey.. where's the earnings, where's the growth, where's the jobs?

NYSE update:

DJ 9154.46 +83.74 +0.92%
NAS 1984.30 +16.54 1.19%
S&P500 986.75 +11.60 +1.19%

Today is like a black swan event to me.
This is totally unexpected. The bulls not suppose to get this far but it did.
Yes, I was shorting energy.. this time, the market caught me.

Last night morning, the crude oil was pretty bad. I was expecting it pull back to 60.
US inventory was all time high: 5.1 milllion barrels of crude overstock
Exxon/Esso (XOM) one of the dow component missed its earnings big time.
66% drop from last year, reported 0.83/share instead of expected 1.01/share.
Steel and copper inventory was overflowing into Thames @ LME, China not buying, etc.

Even the US jobless claim came out bad but the media spins as yet again as good.
Less than 1 hour later. The Dow rallies 3 digits up. What's the news?
Oil lost -3 yesterday, today, it gained back +5 with no fundamentals support.

Only at close, the Dow give back some as teaser.

Tomorrow, US 2nd Qtr GDP will be released.. as usual, even it is a bad number, because the bulls
are so pumped up with v-i-a-g-r-a, the bears will get sodomized no matter.

Mr. Market. I gotta give it to you.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 31 2009, 06:21 AM

Yes, it is crazy. This is interpretation of "the decline was less severe" or "less bad" is absolutely ridiculous.
They're just giving more v_i_a_g_r_a pills to the bulls.

The housing data that just came out for last month was so mis-read and underneath it all,
prices are still plunging like crazy.

One more thing, US congress has pass the vote to pay cash for old cars "Cash for Clunkers".
Another US4500 per car for everyone for total of another $2billion. I wonder if they take my old junk proton.. I'll ship it to USA.



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 1 2009, 09:09 AM

The Dollar index has been trending lower and lower..

What's the futures look like?

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 3 2009, 08:37 AM

Mr.Market needs another jab in the arm to make it run.
Perhaps this time, need to steer south to make it more exciting.

Yes, having alternate system always good choice.
During high volatility, you don't want MS give you a Blue Screen of Death out of nowhere.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 3 2009, 12:13 PM

Yeah..the bulls are in power.. commodity all up..especially Oil up big time.
USD going down.

Oh man.. the USD is getting crushed.

That's true. US Fed just wants the economy to mend and don't want the dollar to tank to banana money.
But, their massive printing action is causing it to go down more. I think they may need to raise interest rates soon.
China is also worrying about their Treasury holdings and if they decided to switch, it will cause further decay.

One thing I'm not sure..why the YEN remains strong here. Maybe Japanese govt not printing as much?

As for our Ringgit...<sigh> even with unpegged level since last year and when our economy at its highest
and USD tanking to the lowest, our Ringgit still hasn't appreciate back to pre-1997 yet.
It is dissappointing to see our purchasing power remains so low.

Good.. I will wait for opps to short Malaysia fund later.

Btw, anyone here buying precious metals like Gold or Silver?
Looks like big potential for upside too.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 4 2009, 02:48 AM

Yeah.. S&P broke through 1000 and maintain through closing.
The bulls are unstoppable now. All bears now are at the edge of extinction.

Perhaps KLSE just slowing poking away.. but the trend is up.