QUOTE(transhumanist92 @ Jun 19 2009, 04:10 AM)
Aliens are real but UFOlogy is a mythology of the space age. Rather than angels ... we now have ... extraterrestrials. It is the product of the creative imagination. It serves a poetic and existential function. It seeks to give man deeper roots and bearings in the universe. It is an expression of our hunger for mystery...our hope for transcendental meaning. The gods of Mt. Olympus have been transformed into space voyagers, transporting us by our dreams to other realms.
The reported perception of an object or light seen in the sky or upon land the appearance, trajectory, and general dynamic and luminescent behavior of which do not suggest a logical, conventional explanation and which is not only mystifying to the original percipients but remains unidentified after close scrutiny of all available evidence by persons who are technically capable of making a common sense identification, if one is possible.
The Drake which was devised by Dr. Frank Drake allows a person to estimate the probability of several factors and come up with a number for say, the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy. It includes factors like rate of new star formation, probability of sun-like stars, probability of planets, probability of life, probability of intelligent life, probability of civilization and technology. Another important factor is the lifetime of such civilizations. When you multiply them all together and multiply that times the number of stars in the galaxy, you get a number.
Since some of these probabilities can't be estimated with any degree of reliability, the numbers you get aren't worth much. The doubt is compounded by the fact that there might be factors which are important, but we haven't considered yet, like the importance of the moon in abiogenesis
When all is said and done, you only get a probability, so even if the figures are all good and all factors considered, it could still be way off.
N = R* X fp X ne X fl X fi X fc X L
where
N = The number of communicative civilizations
R* = The rate of formation of suitable stars (stars such as our Sun)
fp = The fraction of those stars with planets. (Current evidence indicates that planetary systems may be common for stars like the Sun.)
ne = The number of Earth-like worlds per planetary system
fl = The fraction of those Earth-like planets where life actually develops
fi = The fraction of life sites where intelligence develops
fc = The fraction of communicative planets (those on which electromagnetic communications technology develops)
L = The "lifetime" of communicating civilizations
Frank Drake's own current solution to the Drake Equation estimates 10,000 communicative civilizations in the Milky Way. Dr. Drake, who serves on the SETI League's advisory board, has personally endorsed SETI's planned all-sky survey.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
nope...alien a.k.a ET is still a myth just like yeti and the other mythical monster as far as we really want to say that alien is for real but if there's no solid evidence prove along the way it will always remain as a myth regardless how many theories that human can came up with about the diversities of the universe...The reported perception of an object or light seen in the sky or upon land the appearance, trajectory, and general dynamic and luminescent behavior of which do not suggest a logical, conventional explanation and which is not only mystifying to the original percipients but remains unidentified after close scrutiny of all available evidence by persons who are technically capable of making a common sense identification, if one is possible.
The Drake which was devised by Dr. Frank Drake allows a person to estimate the probability of several factors and come up with a number for say, the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy. It includes factors like rate of new star formation, probability of sun-like stars, probability of planets, probability of life, probability of intelligent life, probability of civilization and technology. Another important factor is the lifetime of such civilizations. When you multiply them all together and multiply that times the number of stars in the galaxy, you get a number.
Since some of these probabilities can't be estimated with any degree of reliability, the numbers you get aren't worth much. The doubt is compounded by the fact that there might be factors which are important, but we haven't considered yet, like the importance of the moon in abiogenesis
When all is said and done, you only get a probability, so even if the figures are all good and all factors considered, it could still be way off.
N = R* X fp X ne X fl X fi X fc X L
where
N = The number of communicative civilizations
R* = The rate of formation of suitable stars (stars such as our Sun)
fp = The fraction of those stars with planets. (Current evidence indicates that planetary systems may be common for stars like the Sun.)
ne = The number of Earth-like worlds per planetary system
fl = The fraction of those Earth-like planets where life actually develops
fi = The fraction of life sites where intelligence develops
fc = The fraction of communicative planets (those on which electromagnetic communications technology develops)
L = The "lifetime" of communicating civilizations
Frank Drake's own current solution to the Drake Equation estimates 10,000 communicative civilizations in the Milky Way. Dr. Drake, who serves on the SETI League's advisory board, has personally endorsed SETI's planned all-sky survey.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
Jun 19 2009, 09:25 AM

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