Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Topic Closed RSS Feed

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 Stock market V21, Huge Stimulus Age

views
     
sharesa
post Mar 11 2009, 03:30 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 11 2009, 03:08 PM)
Aiseh, today rise (due to stimulus package + DJ up 370 points) is a bear trap.  sweat.gif

I reckon yesterday DJ 5% rise is more due to scrambled short covering instead of investors are bullish about the market.
*
I think Dow may hit new lows again, (because there's still no signs of concrete recovery in US side), we are next.....sigh!
sharesa
post Mar 12 2009, 09:33 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(Freelancer @ Mar 12 2009, 09:31 AM)
The problem is that the stimulus is not assisting the SMEs which is very important for the economy.

Psstt.. I heard that Mr. N will be No.1 temporary only. Another already planned to take over.
*
who is the "Another"? brows.gif
sharesa
post Mar 12 2009, 09:35 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(mo_meng @ Mar 12 2009, 09:34 AM)
walau suddenly notice resorts 1.93 hmm
wat it the target price for this counter to enter? any opinion?
*
Target price to enter is Suka you one.
sharesa
post Mar 12 2009, 02:41 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 12 2009, 02:40 PM)
Look at IPI figure, down 20%! yoy
Manufacutring alone drops 27%! yoy

It is a horrible number and GDP contraction easily more than 5% with this kind of situation remain.
BNM highly will cut another 0.5% in the coming meeting.
*
there goes our FD!
sharesa
post Mar 12 2009, 02:50 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL





Added on March 12, 2009, 2:51 pm
QUOTE(kinwawa @ Mar 12 2009, 02:43 PM)
dun worry...got Bond....James Bond 5% tongue.gif
*
laugh.gif
James Bond very laku....yunno!
Most people want to get hold of him!


Added on March 12, 2009, 3:00 pmsigh.... to de-stress, I curi went to Tenji for a quick buffet...feel better like butter now.

This post has been edited by sharesa: Mar 12 2009, 03:00 PM
sharesa
post Mar 12 2009, 08:18 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(gogo2 @ Mar 12 2009, 08:10 PM)
What if US finally decided to let Citibank and AIG die so that the financial system will cleanse itself?
*
many will be devastated as their life-long savings are tight to them
sharesa
post Mar 12 2009, 08:58 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(alivecmh @ Mar 12 2009, 08:49 PM)
US is going for another day of rebound, Core retail sales and Retail sales better than expectation, only unemployment claim miss expectation. DJIA should be going up but i doubt of KLSE.

Anyone know any website that show the economy data for malaysia, something like ForexFactory? Market perform poorly these days because of those bad economy data.
*
check this out:bank negara statistics
sharesa
post Mar 13 2009, 11:56 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(kinwawa @ Mar 13 2009, 10:10 AM)
min RM100/1 lot of investment...not bad wor.......we can now follow WB's footstep tongue.gif

if got more details lets discuss more
*
Kinwawa,
Sapcres going to approve another dividend 3cents tax exempt soon, yeah!! rclxms.gif
sharesa
post Mar 17 2009, 11:57 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(Freelancer @ Mar 17 2009, 09:47 PM)
Hey guys. Looks like Sapura Crest gonna fly tomorrow onwards.

Congrats to any shareholders of this counter.   smile.gif

Just wish had bought some today.   sad.gif
*
still not too late to buy....., my lowest is @0.72 and highest @1.75, 3cents tax-exempt dividends to come ...... tongue.gif

**the only minus point is , in this sort of bearish market, many stocks have difficulty to scale high even with such a piece of good news.


Added on March 18, 2009, 12:04 am
QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Mar 17 2009, 04:34 PM)
me too. still no time to bank in yet.
*
why don't you ask the dealer house to direct bank-in into your account? Can save lotsa time & costs.

This post has been edited by sharesa: Mar 18 2009, 12:04 AM
sharesa
post Mar 18 2009, 12:34 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(vexus @ Mar 18 2009, 12:27 AM)
AIG seems in trouble. Tax payer $$$ use for bonuses. huh
*
AIG management never seems to learn their lesson. They should put a stop on these bonuses where actually they should have been closing shop a while ago. People will be able to withstand without any bonus till company recovers, better than being jobless out there.

This post has been edited by sharesa: Mar 18 2009, 12:37 AM
sharesa
post Mar 18 2009, 09:26 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(kinwawa @ Mar 18 2009, 09:21 AM)
good la...sapcres going back up...now waiting for their div confirmation pulak....pbbank also going up....no regrets for these purchases....patience patience...... hehehehe.....
*
I don't mind holding Sapcres until 2012 as their 3b contract will provide significant earnings till that year for time being.
sharesa
post Mar 18 2009, 10:22 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 18 2009, 10:16 AM)
We can deny that they are smart, instead we are the stupid.

They make it too big to fail, so that they can make risky and heavy bet, if winning, getting millions of bonus or performance bonus.
While on the other hand, if losing, then ordinary people (tax payers and people across the globe) need to suffer because of financial market turmoil lead recession, eventually tax payers need to pay to bail out them, while they are still getting pay cheque every month for their job. Sack them? Company still need to pay millions of retrenchment compensation. How nice.

They have nothing to lose at all, they are always at the winning side. They doesn't own the company if the company failed, it is the shareholders of company lose out and gov and ordinary people need to suffer the burden.
*
what they can do is : No bonus payments, reduced salary but no retrenchments.
If not happy, pls resign as there is another person waiting in-line for a job. (Company no need to pay retrenchment benefits).
What I heard a moment ago, when bonuses were announced during board meetings, even gov officials didn't do much. Now, they are investigating.
sharesa
post Mar 18 2009, 06:09 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 18 2009, 05:47 PM)
Yes, you are correct.

But
If you are dealing with multi-million time of throwing a dice, the proabability is normalised, aka you throw the dice 10 time, may be you get 50% of 1, 10% of 2,3,4,5,6.

But if you throw 10 million times, then the probability will be normalised, aka you get almost equal chance of 1,2,3,4,5,6.

Basically casinos earn money by having more winning probability than the customer. Just like roulette, casino has high chance of winning, because they pay you 1:36 only but there are 37 or 38 (0 and 00) number available. Occassionally, casino might get more winning chance due to odd and bias of number come out at certain of period, but longer term, the winning chance is normalised.
It is as same with those gaming company that operating 4D.

So basically, why they come out the analyst is because Resort is operating at the same amount of betting that received from the table, but they are winning more compared to previous quarter, so that's why come from the term "better luck". So based on hsitorical data, it might not repeatable (the normalised chance as mentioned), so they expect lower revenue in the next few quarter.
Except Resorts has changed the rule of the game (gambling rule) which is more favour to the house, then those more revenue or "better luck" will stay.

Just like you keep on winning 4D lately, but we know it highly won't be repeatable, although it is still random as previously hit doesn't mean next won't be hitting again.

Hope this help what is meant by normalisation.
Number is random, so does luck, but over large amount of repeatative, the chance is normalised back, although it won't be exactly, still it would somehow skewed at one side, but not that significant compared to a short certain period.
*
rclxub.gif stock + gambling expert
sharesa
post Mar 18 2009, 11:09 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


QUOTE(mo_meng @ Mar 18 2009, 10:48 PM)
if DJ red .. dunno wat resorts will be tml
*
don't wolli so much.... I hv seen resorts' trend, many a times when KLCI is down , they are up! Keeps fingers crossed.
sharesa
post Mar 19 2009, 04:41 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
5,587 posts

Joined: May 2007
From: KL


New job bodes well for SapuraCrest

Tags: Brokers Call | Maybank IB | SapuraCrest

Written by Financial Daily
Thursday, 19 March 2009 10:46

SAPURACREST Petroleum Bhd’s success in bagging the RM3 billion Gemusut-Kakap job to install pipes and facilities (IPF) has gone down well with analysts who cover the stock.

Most research houses were already expecting the award of the latest job and some had factored in the earnings thereof.

Speculation of SapuraCrest winning the job has been around since the middle of last year.

In reports released yesterday after the announcement of the award, Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) upgraded its call to a hold from fully valued while Kenanga Research maintained a buy. Both research houses assigned the target price of 80 sen for SapuraCrest’s shares.

Maybank IB said SapuraCrest could theoretically earn about RM130 million in earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) from this project or RM43 million per annum over the next three years based on a blended margin of 4.5%.

However, it cautioned that “earnings could fall below expectations on rising opex (operating expenditure) at its 50% associate (SapuraAcergy Sdn Bhd), which owns the Sapura 3000 vessel, and implementation delays at the Gumusut-Kakap project which may stretch earnings recognition beyond three years”.

“A sensitivity analysis suggests that a RM10 million delay in revenue recognition for this project could negatively impact net profit by RM1 million,” added Maybank IB.

Nevertheless, the job should bode well for SapuraCrest in the coming years at least. Kenanga said the bulk of the work in the current year would involve engineering and procurement, while the offshore installation phase would only come onstream next year.

The research outfit said the contract would contribute favourably to SapuraCrest’s IPF division’s earnings and support the research house’s FY2011 net profit expectations of RM178.9 million, up 23.8% from that of FY2010.

“Despite the flattish top line expectations of RM3.84 billion FY2011, we assume a 50% share on the joint venture’s year-on-year revenue of RM1 billion with a 4.5% Ebit margin, similar to the margin assumption for its IPF division for FY2010 and FY2011,” it noted.

SapuraCrest’s price-earnings ratio (PER) of 6.8 times is slightly above regional service providers, but this, Maybank Research said was justified, as there was no real direct comparable company in the Asian market. Also, SapuraCrest’s share price is supported by decent dividend yield of 7.5%.

Kenanga Research said the award of the contract could be taken to mean that oil majors were still spending.

“We take this as a positive sign that Petronas and the oil and gas majors are living up to their statement of continual capex spending in such trying times,” it said.
At yesterday’s close, shares of SapuraCrest put on three sen to 70 sen.



This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 19, 2009.


3 Pages < 1 2 3Top
Topic ClosedOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0443sec    0.66    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 10th December 2025 - 03:06 PM