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 Dividend Discount Model, Am I Using It Correctly?

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Phoeni_142
post Dec 29 2008, 12:58 PM

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Sorry ah - my England not so the Powderful. Not the understanding the you saying what.

Brush up on your grammar please. You are having trouble understanding what I wrote - and obviously I have no idea what u just wrote.

Why don't u be a good lad and study for your CFA? You should use more toilet paper. A lot of Sh*t seems to be coming out from you smile.gif

You're out of your league. If you want to start a war with me, I'll rip you to shreds. But never mind....I pity little boys like you.

Now run off! Go study!
keelim
post Dec 29 2008, 01:12 PM

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From: ^^Heaven^^


QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Dec 29 2008, 12:16 PM)
Kinitos,

Why are you being so emotional and defensive? Is it because u flunked out from your CFA many times over? Awww....poor thing.

You claim to know those "complicated" rules - but do u practice it? 

I suspect not - because your kind of people just like to giving condesdending and snide remarks.  The typical "bully" in the street that likes to have the last word.

Go ahead - I'll let u have the last word - but - try to act with some class and dignity please. 

Your arguement is so flawed I don't even know where to begin.  The assumptions placed into the DDM are also......erm....ASSUMPTIONS, right? By who? you? Typical chinaman street investor that's trying to appear intellectual.

Ok - I'm a CFA - but I guess I prefer to simplify things.  I guess you're not from any financial services or investment background.  If not, you won't be talking the way u just replied.  I suggest you think very carefully before your next reply.  If not, the joke's on you. 

Maybe I'm not as smart and complex as you.  Let u win. smile.gif
*
I thought CFA should be used as an adjective? Standard VII(B) tongue.gif

This post has been edited by keelim: Dec 29 2008, 01:12 PM
Phoeni_142
post Dec 29 2008, 01:15 PM

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[quote=Kinitos,Dec 29 2008, 11:52 AM]


Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) best accuracy are obtained by internal analyst as they're privy to inside info. Useful to sectors like properties, construction, oil rig builders.

You're obviously not an analyst.........you're obviously not from financial services..........you're obviously not from an investment background.........If not, you won't make such sweeping statements to defend your precious models....You have no idea how to apply them to real life.........you don't even know whether they are applicable.

You have to have a vision of the company 5 or 10 years from now.......with regards to their business plan, goals and aspirations. We have not even begun to dwell into the growth rate or the discount rate, you imbecile.

Have you visited companies before? Done analyst briefings? Toured a company's premises? Used any of their products? No, No, No and No - i suspect. By the way, you don't have to be an analyst to do those things above. Perhaps you're just sitting under your living room table everyday.

Most companies do not even know where they will be in 2 years time - and here you are taking something out of a text book and trying to apply it mathematically, and thinking it's a fundamental guiding law.

This post has been edited by Phoeni_142: Dec 29 2008, 01:17 PM
SUSKinitos
post Dec 29 2008, 01:40 PM

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QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Dec 23 2008, 11:00 PM)
Norman,

I am in agreement with you that everyone has his or her own opinion.

However, I respectfully disagree with your assessment of the situation.  Please do not make such sweeping statements, and quote me Benjamin Graham as though it is a fundamental guiding law. 

I also can read the "Intelligent Investor" and parrot his philosophy. 

1.  Your analysis is misguided.  His investment rules were never limited to the DJ 30.  You mean understanding a company's business has lost all meaning, and that u should just rely on technical analysis for companies outside the DJ 30? Wow.....if u have done well using this philosophy....I congratulate you.....and I certainly hope your success has sustainability. 

2.  Read Buffett, Peter Lynch and Jerry Porras to have a more balanced view please. 

3.  Form your own opinion from your readings, and don't parrot the authors - perhaps we can have a more matured conversation then.

Goodbye!
*
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOhhhhhh I cccccccccccccccc...............

Orang lain cakap semua salah , kau saja seorg yang betul

lu ingat u saja ada CFA kah? semuanya cut & paste aje

marah marah org lain seja tahu?


Phoeni_142
post Dec 29 2008, 01:46 PM

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Bukan marah semua orang.

Cuma nasihat engkau sahaja. Janganlah perasaan!.

Pergilah belajar sekarang. Jangan kacau bang lagi.

Switching to Malay now, are we? smile.gif


Added on December 29, 2008, 1:48 pmKinitos,

Why not we meet somewhere more private. Instead of this Public Display of Attention here.

Maybe we'll settle our dispute in real life? More exciting for us to meet face to face?

If not, I suggest we ignore each other from now on.



This post has been edited by Phoeni_142: Dec 29 2008, 01:48 PM
sofspy
post Dec 29 2008, 02:52 PM

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Hey Phoeni_142 yea i am in asset management, and i dont have the moolah to go into properties yet smile.gif

Anyway to the trolls...if you were really in the finance sector what is wrong with Phoeni_142 argument's for the masses?

Investment theories are useful reference but i do not think it can be universally applied because of difference in system, regulations, culture, etc. When you invest in something you have to know what your investing into, please dun try to counter the argument with some generic crap like toilet paper. Historically low PE might be a good indicator of bottom but it is not sure fire, which is why he mentioned that it has to have a sustainable future.

And if your going to argue please know your facts instead of stating blanket quotes...nobody is an investment guru ok even Warren buffet, im sure he learns new stuff every single moment...acting high and mighty only makes you look like an ass.


SUSKinitos
post Dec 29 2008, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Dec 24 2008, 02:03 PM)
Normante,

why are u just parroting and trying to be arrogant?  Did you google all those titles up there just to potray yourself as "intelligent"?

Sigh - people like you are despicable. 

You may also want to brush up on your grammar.  Your command of English leaves much to be desired.

You don't even understand Public Bank's core business.....and you want to venture into overseas equities?

I know your type - only flashing phenomenal returns from your so called "mythical and phenomenal" portfolio.

Deep down - I know there's not much substance, and I suspect not much returns to go with it.  Good luck in your endeavours.  You're really not worth my time.
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how/what to understand the core business of company ahh?

Say people dunno you CFA also dunno gua??


Added on December 29, 2008, 3:31 pm
QUOTE(Kinitos @ Dec 29 2008, 03:24 PM)
how/what to understand the core business of company ahh?

Say people dunno you CFA also dunno gua??
*
Inssider info, got love msg from him

"If you want to continue your debate with me, let's do it in person.

Don't be a coward and debate in the virtual world.

I'm going to ignore you. I strongly suggest u do the same.

You do not know me. Please do not assume I'm a little nerd sitting behind a laptop.

If you want to settle this personally let's meet and bring it to the next level. But if u want peace, I think you know what to do.

"

This post has been edited by Kinitos: Dec 29 2008, 03:31 PM
Phoeni_142
post Dec 29 2008, 04:29 PM

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Hi Sofspy,

Thanks for coming to my defense....It's okay....no point talking to him....He seems to have made up his mind to stick to his toilet paper theory. smile.gif

Kinitos

brush up on your grammar? I meant that a CFA is just a prerequisite in an overrated industry. I do not believe in models entirely. In fact, sometimes common sense and gumption take precedence over models. Don't you think so?

I believe in fighting for the common man on the street. What's wrong with that? Unless you're trying to tell me that we are not good enough if we don't understand models like DDM? Perhaps a CFA is also not as smart as you. You are the best.
Thumbs up!

skiddtrader
post Dec 30 2008, 01:02 PM

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Wow and I thought flame wars only happens in the politic thread tongue.gif

Anyway, I believe everyone is old enough to know arguing over the forums is the worst way to project oneself. And also since we aren't able to listen to the tone of how each of us type, the way we write often is misunderstood as provocation if read in a different mood or perspective.

So peace to both of you and lets try to stay on topic without the "I'm mightier than thou" sentences. Cheers. smile.gif

Back on topic:

Regarding DDM and disregarding listed companies on our KLSE, is it possible to use it for let's say a home business if the growth rate is more or less stagnant, like a school canteen business where student population is the same.

Was trying to see if I set up a company and split the shares between some family members and see what is the best way to project returns of each of our invesment sums. Nothing real or anything, just something I had in my mind.

This post has been edited by skiddtrader: Dec 30 2008, 01:07 PM
jason3c
post Jan 1 2009, 02:28 PM

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should be CFA charterholder

i am a CFA level 3 candidate too .. nice to meet you. What earns you the charter? cool.

http://todayfinancialworld.blogspot.com

I am still opting a job in IB .. anyone
peh1696
post Jan 8 2009, 01:09 AM

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Hi iamsuccess,

Why don't you invest small amount of your fund to test it out?

Do Post Analysis for end of the each year and you'll know whether it suits you and the market or not.


xu7jp
post Jan 8 2009, 07:36 PM

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We cannot value every company the same way.
Whether its asset light, capex light, asset heavy, capex heavy in what kind of industries?
Whether it has a monopoly,light competition, lowest cost among peers,
high barrier to entry, geographical advantage, cutting edge technologies?
Whether its accounting book is reflecting the truth?Whether its simple or complex, whether its meant to be understood or meant to confuse and hide?
Warren Buffett only invest in something he can understand.
Be it the business, its accounting and its management.
That's why he said wait for the perfect hit in baseball.
No point swinging at something u r not confident/understand.
When he embraced value investing it was more of asset valuation,NTA thing.But Charlie Munger taught him about companies light in asset,light in capex so he started valuing companies like this with DCF.
Provided he can understand its book of course.



 

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