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 Dividend Discount Model, Am I Using It Correctly?

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SUSKinitos
post Dec 29 2008, 11:52 AM

On my way
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572 posts

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QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Dec 23 2008, 01:05 PM)
Hi, I'm a CFA, and I must tell u this now - DDM is a bunce of nonsense - so are all the analytical tools out there.......I always laugh my head out when an analyst writes a report to recommend a "fair value" of the stock.......What arcane BS!

Let me be frank here - a stock price is not determined by DDM, or by cash flows discounted at any friggin damn rate.  Well, in theory it is.... 

But in reality....It's determined by you and me.....Yeap - u read correctly......by you and me - and by all the auntie and uncle speculators, fundamentalists etc........It's an arms length transaction between buyer and seller....You think they give a damn about the discounted cash flows of a company for the next 5 or 10 years?

Long story short, suggest u just do three things....to try to keep it simple.

1.  Buy a business, not a stock. 
2.  Buy a business with a sustainable future.  E.g. If u have not used its products or services b4, don't bother buying it.
3.  Buy it when people are selling or are being emotional....A useful tip is when the business is trading at all time low or historically low PE.
*
Obviously you learned crab out of your CFA

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) best accuracy are obtained by internal analyst as they're privy to inside info. Useful to sectors like properties, construction, oil rig builders.

You hate DCF because you never get it right? Your garbage data input numbers make the DCF screwed big time yeah?

Companies with a poor result from DCF are the best candidates for PN17 awards from BURSA?

A poor DCF result means declining Revenue/Sales or Profit Margin?

These 3 complicated rules every tom d*** & hairy also know
1. Buy a business, not a stock.
2. Buy a business with a sustainable future. E.g. If u have not used its products or services b4, don't bother buying it.
3. Buy it when people are selling or are being emotional....A useful tip is when the business is trading at all time low or historically low PE.

Nothing but a simple minded advice from educated CFA

SUSKinitos
post Dec 29 2008, 12:40 PM

On my way
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Senior Member
572 posts

Joined: Sep 2007
QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Dec 23 2008, 04:53 PM)
it depends.  Do u understand their business intimately?

I don't pretend to know everything.  I don't know anything about KNM or QL.  Why? I just don't understand their business model, and I can't relate to it.

Let me give u a simple example.  I've been an avid investor of F&N for years.  Why? It makes sense to me.  I drink 100 plus almost daily.  Everytime u drink teh tarik....F&N also profits from the condensed milk used. 

Forgive me, I have a primitive brain.....i like to keep things simple.

So, you be the judge.
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What do you means by this? Is it means sitting under the CEO desk all day?

If i no drink beer means no Buy CARLSBG or GUINESS?

If i no like chicken means no Buy KFC?

If i no gamble means no Buy BJTOTO?

But i always use toilet paper every day so must invest ONLY in companies making toilet paper product?






SUSKinitos
post Dec 29 2008, 01:40 PM

On my way
****
Senior Member
572 posts

Joined: Sep 2007
QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Dec 23 2008, 11:00 PM)
Norman,

I am in agreement with you that everyone has his or her own opinion.

However, I respectfully disagree with your assessment of the situation.  Please do not make such sweeping statements, and quote me Benjamin Graham as though it is a fundamental guiding law. 

I also can read the "Intelligent Investor" and parrot his philosophy. 

1.  Your analysis is misguided.  His investment rules were never limited to the DJ 30.  You mean understanding a company's business has lost all meaning, and that u should just rely on technical analysis for companies outside the DJ 30? Wow.....if u have done well using this philosophy....I congratulate you.....and I certainly hope your success has sustainability. 

2.  Read Buffett, Peter Lynch and Jerry Porras to have a more balanced view please. 

3.  Form your own opinion from your readings, and don't parrot the authors - perhaps we can have a more matured conversation then.

Goodbye!
*
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOhhhhhh I cccccccccccccccc...............

Orang lain cakap semua salah , kau saja seorg yang betul

lu ingat u saja ada CFA kah? semuanya cut & paste aje

marah marah org lain seja tahu?


SUSKinitos
post Dec 29 2008, 03:24 PM

On my way
****
Senior Member
572 posts

Joined: Sep 2007
QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Dec 24 2008, 02:03 PM)
Normante,

why are u just parroting and trying to be arrogant?  Did you google all those titles up there just to potray yourself as "intelligent"?

Sigh - people like you are despicable. 

You may also want to brush up on your grammar.  Your command of English leaves much to be desired.

You don't even understand Public Bank's core business.....and you want to venture into overseas equities?

I know your type - only flashing phenomenal returns from your so called "mythical and phenomenal" portfolio.

Deep down - I know there's not much substance, and I suspect not much returns to go with it.  Good luck in your endeavours.  You're really not worth my time.
*
how/what to understand the core business of company ahh?

Say people dunno you CFA also dunno gua??


Added on December 29, 2008, 3:31 pm
QUOTE(Kinitos @ Dec 29 2008, 03:24 PM)
how/what to understand the core business of company ahh?

Say people dunno you CFA also dunno gua??
*
Inssider info, got love msg from him

"If you want to continue your debate with me, let's do it in person.

Don't be a coward and debate in the virtual world.

I'm going to ignore you. I strongly suggest u do the same.

You do not know me. Please do not assume I'm a little nerd sitting behind a laptop.

If you want to settle this personally let's meet and bring it to the next level. But if u want peace, I think you know what to do.

"

This post has been edited by Kinitos: Dec 29 2008, 03:31 PM

 

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