QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Dec 23 2008, 01:05 PM)
Hi, I'm a CFA, and I must tell u this now - DDM is a bunce of nonsense - so are all the analytical tools out there.......I always laugh my head out when an analyst writes a report to recommend a "fair value" of the stock.......What arcane BS!
Let me be frank here - a stock price is not determined by DDM, or by cash flows discounted at any friggin damn rate. Well, in theory it is....
But in reality....It's determined by you and me.....Yeap - u read correctly......by you and me - and by all the auntie and uncle speculators, fundamentalists etc........It's an arms length transaction between buyer and seller....You think they give a damn about the discounted cash flows of a company for the next 5 or 10 years?
Long story short, suggest u just do three things....to try to keep it simple.
1. Buy a business, not a stock.
2. Buy a business with a sustainable future. E.g. If u have not used its products or services b4, don't bother buying it.
3. Buy it when people are selling or are being emotional....A useful tip is when the business is trading at all time low or historically low PE.
Obviously you learned crab out of your CFALet me be frank here - a stock price is not determined by DDM, or by cash flows discounted at any friggin damn rate. Well, in theory it is....
But in reality....It's determined by you and me.....Yeap - u read correctly......by you and me - and by all the auntie and uncle speculators, fundamentalists etc........It's an arms length transaction between buyer and seller....You think they give a damn about the discounted cash flows of a company for the next 5 or 10 years?
Long story short, suggest u just do three things....to try to keep it simple.
1. Buy a business, not a stock.
2. Buy a business with a sustainable future. E.g. If u have not used its products or services b4, don't bother buying it.
3. Buy it when people are selling or are being emotional....A useful tip is when the business is trading at all time low or historically low PE.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) best accuracy are obtained by internal analyst as they're privy to inside info. Useful to sectors like properties, construction, oil rig builders.
You hate DCF because you never get it right? Your garbage data input numbers make the DCF screwed big time yeah?
Companies with a poor result from DCF are the best candidates for PN17 awards from BURSA?
A poor DCF result means declining Revenue/Sales or Profit Margin?
These 3 complicated rules every tom d*** & hairy also know
1. Buy a business, not a stock.
2. Buy a business with a sustainable future. E.g. If u have not used its products or services b4, don't bother buying it.
3. Buy it when people are selling or are being emotional....A useful tip is when the business is trading at all time low or historically low PE.
Nothing but a simple minded advice from educated CFA
Dec 29 2008, 11:52 AM

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