if it's that easy to make profit out of financials, no one would be working by now. just my little opinion

haha..maybe we should put this on the first page...

Maybe this could help





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lazy to paste the chart here...the chart is USD index, valued against a basket of currencies...take note on the supporting trendline

USD Index

ya...but better to connect the July low to Dec low...

anyway, bout the treasuries i've been talking about..lets sit back and observe how the bubble is starting to grow, before bursting

see here

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Apr 6 2009, 12:21 AM

that's written theoretical guide book. In practical, you need FA whether it's news release or not, and FA is not just used for trading news. FA is used to understand the market, hence to understand its reaction and how it'll react to everything that's happening, a.k.a. news, whether it's short term or long term. IMO, in FA, you dont just look at economic prints, you have to understand how that figure would cause a response to the market.

my little opinion

a bit view of mine..

last night's TIC report shows China's holding on Treasuries increased 0.6% while Japan increased heavily to 4.3%. Something fishy with China, holding shorter term securities. Net outflow for short term securities is still large, at $97 bil, though Jan posted a outflow of $146.8 bil. Summary is, US might find trouble funding its stimulus.

While on the European side, cutting rates below 1.00% is rather slim. However, their tools don't just stop at adjusting the rate. Expects would be amendments of MRO periods.

On AU, it's currently highly overbought, though price is within ascending triangle.

Dow, it's still stuck for the time being, as seen in the chart. Wave counting is advised.

Happy trading all





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USD is facing a bit of challenge to be the safe haven now. Looking at the Treasuries auction for its 3 and 6-month bills, i considered it weak. What is left now for the Euro is how ECB is going to play with its tools. Best bet would be to extend the maturity period. However, i still do believe Euro would gain against the USD, probably by June

haha..pay me US$150, i'll teach you about FA too

before this, the market consist of fear and greed. now, we have a new element: crazy.

hmm...why would the market wants to wait after employment report to rally. Libor-OIS has been down got a very long time. For sure, i dont buy this. Heck, look at TED.

i mean...fundamentally, the up move is rather crazy, is it not?

haha...knew it..look at equities and position of USD...

oumind,

what will trigger the USD as not safe? If you look closely at Treasuries, notice how the buying of bonds shifted to short term bills? yields of 10 year note and 30 year bond have been going up and up. What does that tell you? What you're looking at is another bubble already in the happened, which was already mentioned here months before. One warning of downgrade, will kill it.

Here are a few things, imo, which you can use to gauge USD. Treasuries, TED & TIP spread, Gold, Libor, Libro-OIS, equities. Of course, there are other fundamentals that come into play, such as China.

This post has been edited by small-jeff: May 16 2009, 01:59 AM

probably millions (US$) personally, while overseeing a few billions for his/her firm.

Bloomberg Market (the magazine) once made a profile on an investor (cant remember the name). He also use automated system for his trades, which includes commodities futures, equities and forex. One main difference is, his set of "indicators" arent those provided like those found in forex. His set of "indicators" consist of economical data, equity indexes, etc etc. Not much details were given though. He basically created the system hence the platform itself, and used it solely for his company (dont think it's up for sale).

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Added on May 18, 2009, 10:29 pmooh..his annual returns were like 20% - 100%...not 1000%

This post has been edited by small-jeff: May 19 2009, 12:42 AM

Ops, Greenspan did it again... welcome to the new zone of trading financials...

@billytong ,

actually on thursday night it is already apparent, where the sell off in equities failed to cause a rally in Treasuries. I've actually been waiting this moment for quite long time. Placed a long position during last night's consolidation, gonna hold for quite a while. Hope it'll last. Yes, i would agree we're in a new zone...

This post has been edited by small-jeff: May 22 2009, 02:18 PM

if one can make 20 pips per day, everyday, he/she would be millionaire in a few years

really that hard to find?

hm...i wonder if Deutsche Bank will go bust...cause they also provide FX trading...

if you know how the market works, you can even use your mobile phone to trade, or even ask your friends to make an entry for you.

hm..personally i wont recommend anything that charges you, unless it's Bloomberg or alike. Data and information can be obtained freely in the internet like Bloomberg and CNBC, if one would explore their sites. Since Forex market is a much complicated market amongst equities, bonds and commodities, where it involves activities of all instruments, the 2 sites mentioned would give you good resources for your homework (don't buy/sell when they said to though ).

If you're trading part time and have no time for fundamental analysis, it would be better to have a larger capital with lower leverage, trading on weekly basis, if you're good at it, you may get 3-5% out of the trade. Due to the volatility that may (and probably would) come soon, "investing" for longer periods will not be safe.

please do bring this discussion somewhere else..