You have constant flow of bad news, so what, big deal. What an investor must look for is a data that confirms that the US economy will not slip into a long painful recession that lasts for more than 2 years.

The market has already efficiently priced in more job cuts, more bad earnings, more pain @ retail. This is a directionless market; with new government intervention every minute. One must know how to trade in this environment; not just simply guessing and purchasing penny stocks and hopes that it goes up.

Hope is for gamblers, smart traders don't hope.

The sales data is not the main concern, the main concern here is the T bills sold at the rate of 0.00%. That's FEAR right there for you.

Stay overweight on cash amid the developments of the T bill auction. Fund managers across the globe sees something that many investors don't see.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Dec 10 2008, 08:31 AM

We have a chatroom exclusively for trading FX. You can visit the LYN thread on FX trading.

It's a different ball game altogether. One must be quick thinking and very observant to succeed in the FX market. Mainly because you are speculating against millions of professional traders daily.

---

Added on December 10, 2008, 8:59 amHere's the thread.
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/788602/+2320


Many of my "students" made alot this week.


This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Dec 10 2008, 08:59 AM

Sell whatever shares you have for a profit. Market is almost immune to any good news.

The market cannot be sustained by pure hype alone. Fundamentals will come to play soon enough when the hysteria dies down. Those smart traders will LEAVE once the room gets too crowed. Don't get caught holding the bag.

---

Added on December 11, 2008, 2:53 amFor those who knows how to read DJIA chart, daily activity reflects shooting star with stochastics in the OB region. As i said, the market cannot be sustained by hope and bailouts.





This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Dec 11 2008, 02:53 AM

Negative news, blah this blah that. Go look at the EU weekly chart and you will notice something funny. As for carry trades, why its a good time to accumulate when Governments around the world printing money. Yes, bailout failed but you think the government will let American pride die? Wishful thinking.

IF you want to beat the market, think ahead of the game.


a) Old habits dont die easily. With oil price this cheap, its a hugeeeeeee plus for americans to drive their SUV and to show off their 24" spinners.

b) US pending home sales might bottomed, and Wells Fargo CEO has mentioned that.

c) Employment is a lagging indicator; that's why market doesn't crash when Citigroup and gang laying off workers.

You want to make big money? Long financials, long carry trades, and long commodities. Buy during bear, sell during bull. Simple as that.

---

Added on December 12, 2008, 10:11 pmAnd you know what's the problem with Americans? They think they can spend their way out of trouble. IF you think along the lines, isnt this contributing to hyper inflation in 2 years time. Forget freaking depression? These Americans love spending money ALL the time. You give them 1 buck, they spend 2. So Japanese lost decade?? Obama knows what to do, and he's going to SPEND his way to get his country out of the recession.


This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Dec 12 2008, 10:11 PM

Dow will rally upwards, and close green ahead of Fed meeting.

---

Added on December 12, 2008, 10:37 pmFed will cut rates, Paulson will announce plans to drive 30 year mortgage lower to 4% and white house will ultimately bail the auto industry.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Dec 12 2008, 10:37 PM

When the going gets tough, let's print more Dollars! Wohooo!

Nobody cares about the auto industry, which has been struggling for years. When shit hits the fan, now they need a bailout? Of course is temporary relief. These guys only know how to spend money and not cut cost like how efficiently Japanese carmakers have been reducing cost. American, big horsepower, high maintainence. Same motto for their cars.

---

Added on December 13, 2008, 1:38 amAs usual Dow rallies up, how predictable.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Dec 13 2008, 01:38 AM

Thanks for the compliment, but i am not God, just an experience trader with "master degree" in behavior science.


Dow Jones end up green

Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 8,629.68
Trade Time: 4:05PM ET
Change: 64.59 (0.75%)
Prev Close: 8,565.09
Open: 8,563.10
Day's Range: 8,347.81 - 8,679.94
52wk Range: 7,392.27 - 13,614.50

That's not a week rebound, from 8300+ to 8600+. That's 200 point swing; and closed positive.

Don't fool yourself, this bear rally is strong.

A bear rally means the market is rallying upwards as a correction while remaining in a bear market.

My tips for forumers:
(no you guys don't have to pay me a dime if you made money)

LONG financials, long commodities, long euro, long carry trade.

Dow to rally to 9500-10000 end of the month. Mark this post. You hear it from me first.



This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Dec 14 2008, 04:00 AM

Hey buddy, my forecasts change daily base on price actions. You can ask guys that talk to me everyday and how i made them money on a daily basis. Sometimes we lose money, sometimes we win money; but my accuracy is much better than some of the traders here by far.

When i told the forum to sell at these period; it still holds true. IF you are a short term trader, you sell on rallies, buy on dips. If you want to be a long term trader, then one should long financials, long commodities, long carry trades. Why? You yourself will know why.

You don't have to listen, i am just talking ass but my close friends will vouch for my record in FX which is the most complicated financial instrument there is today.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Dec 14 2008, 06:36 PM

Bought ramunia (first ever playing malaysian stocks) @ 0.34/0.345

20,000 shares.


Right now Q at 0.33 for 5000 shares.



This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Jan 6 2009, 01:59 PM

LOL.....i see a massive potential in Ramunia. It's a VEGAS style gamble...

It's a money losing company, but cheap enough for a local O&G company to acquire it. And my chart says oil will go up from here. Then again, it's just me.

If you notice Ramunia's price action, Ramunia is holding out well. So something is brewing.

Haha, this is my first malaysian stock for myself, and i wouldn't commit unless i am really sure of its potential. FX is side income my friend, stocks are long term investments.