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 Stock market V19, Chit chat in the market

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TScherroy
post Dec 13 2008, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(simplesmile @ Dec 13 2008, 03:40 PM)
What's a "bear rally"?
I know bear means stock market will drop.
A rally usually means stock market will go up.
A bear rally means...up or down?
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Stock market won't be go down everyday one, once drop too much and become seems too cheap, then people come into market to bargain and buy, which send the market go higher in quite a drastically way just like US market last few days, as once market goes up, people become more confident, and short-seller need to cover quick, which eventually make up bear market rally normally come in quite fast and drastic.

But once rising too fast, too much, people realise fundamental is still not good, then back to reality, and market goes down again.
TScherroy
post Dec 13 2008, 09:48 PM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Dec 13 2008, 09:12 PM)
Does anyone know what happened to titan chemicals? Have been 0.75 sen only. So long din monitor this counter. The dividend and business is quite good i think.
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As reported in the recent news, resin business is being hit quite hard, even Petronas resin factory need to shut down as stockpile is simply too high, can shut down for weeks without producing still have enough stock to sell.

Good side is oil price is dropping singificantly which make their cost pressure being removed.

Their business is volatile in nature, but at 0.75, it is more than 60-70% discount on its NTA which stand at 2.xx. Dividend history is 6 cents annually, but don't know can sustain or not in the near future.

Don't mean good or bad, judge your own, buy at your own risk.

TScherroy
post Dec 14 2008, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Dec 13 2008, 10:49 PM)
Thanks Cherroy.  notworthy.gif Like what you said their business might get hard hit due to higher inventory / stock pile. One more think is their debt to equity is about 0.5.
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At 0.5 is still a manageable ratio.

It could be a undervalued stock, if earning wise still showing a positive sign.

Its business is largely affected by oil price/natural gas, as those are the main raw ingredient in making their product (polymer, polymer resin)
TScherroy
post Dec 15 2008, 11:19 AM

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It is very difficult for the market to sink a lot in current situation. Whenever some issue/news that is bad, gov across the globe come out to rescue.
Like Auto-bailout fail, then US gov may come out another plan or using TARP to fund it.

Those want and need to sell, already sold, so sellers are not that aggressive anymore in most stocks.
TScherroy
post Dec 15 2008, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(sampoo @ Dec 15 2008, 11:33 AM)
yes, but still becareful. the market still not crying. so, dun hope the heroes will come in and rescue. keep ur stock and try to average if u still have bullet.  rclxm9.gif
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Upside potential also limited by poor economy ahead (expected), so it somehow like stuck in the range.

It is not realistic to expect market to rally strongly except some bear rally in between.
TScherroy
post Dec 15 2008, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(fergie1100 @ Dec 15 2008, 05:18 PM)
quite a "big" Q for AXREIT @ 1.00..... i guess Cherroy must be 1 of them  brows.gif
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I did Q at 1.00 as well today, tongue.gif but didn't get it, in fact, 1.00 never done today, unlike last Friday, at least done 400-500 lots.
TScherroy
post Dec 15 2008, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(mo_meng @ Dec 15 2008, 05:18 PM)
REITS supporter?
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QUOTE(ante5k @ Dec 15 2008, 05:18 PM)
U sapu reit only ....
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Neo18 is doing carry trade on reit based on last time he posted. Borrow or margin at a rate much lower than reit DPU gave.
TScherroy
post Dec 16 2008, 09:56 AM

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QUOTE(mo_meng @ Dec 16 2008, 09:49 AM)
uchitect price up 10 cent not bad
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It is +0.010, 1 cent not 10 cents. tongue.gif

Up courtesy of LYN promotion. biggrin.gif
TScherroy
post Dec 16 2008, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(kmarc @ Dec 16 2008, 11:31 AM)
Off hand (my noob stock book is at home  biggrin.gif), these are the few counters I'm aiming to get:

KNM & LCL - due to possibility of getting maximum capital appreciation once the market rallies
UCHITEC - projected high dividends FY09/FY10 and target price of RM2.00 (currently at RM0.97)
GAMUDA - also projected higher dividends but only will get this counter if the prices fall

I'm also holding SIME, RESORT, KINSTEL and ZELAN.... these will be sold off once their prices go up.

There's a few other counters I'm looking at but haven't decided yet - CALSBERG, GUINESS, IOICORP, PLUS, BJTOTO, JTINTER, etc.... smile.gif

At the moment, I'm avoiding FINANCE counters as some securities don't advice buying these at the moment....
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For my personal opinion, among the list, PLUS should be the last to be considered, <-- won't get too much appreciation from it. Even during the bull run last year when KLCI reaching 1,500, it didn't surge much either.
TScherroy
post Dec 16 2008, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(eltaria @ Dec 16 2008, 02:16 PM)
Eh for those using online brokerage, how long is will it take for ur orders to be confirmed?

Mine seems to take forever... damn... for example, the order was resent at 2pm, but until now, only shows order received by the dealer. i was among the middle ppl to q sell my resort at 2.2 in the morning session. now i'm the last... zzzzz...  cry.gif  cry.gif

market start my order still havent been confirmed...

Okay, order just confimed... so it takes almost 18 minutes for my order to be confirmed after it was sent.
I noticed for my morning sessions, it takes quite long too..... kinda sucks to miss a trade because your orders were queued in late... :/ eventhough your target price was met.
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It is about your dealer efficiency, nothing to do with online system/ Some dealers might be too busy or too easy (this is higher chance laugh.gif )(that chit-chat with others or playing with computer game laugh.gif), doesn't alert you have sent the order and re-direct your orders.
TScherroy
post Dec 16 2008, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(lklatmy @ Dec 16 2008, 03:26 PM)
Those RM12 one got no Remisier leh,u pay peanut,u get monkey  tongue.gif  tongue.gif

Any way,FYI,we can actually set the system to auto or manual,so when we go away  to chit chat or play computer games,we set the system to auto and orders are automatically passed when received,this apply to the system sold by N2N.
Also,we are not allowed to use our BFE terminal for purposes other than keying in orders and routing online orders.We can't even load any software into it nor modify the hardware.
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I LOL on "monkey". So next time don't pay peanut, buy some banana.... biggrin.gif

I saw most remiser bring their own notebook for playing game. tongue.gif biggrin.gif

Btw, those terminal are funded by the broker house or on your own?
TScherroy
post Dec 17 2008, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(htt @ Dec 17 2008, 08:37 AM)
Wondering if the interbank rate in US reduce to 'a range between 0% to 0.25%', then if I am bank with extra money, I mah rather keep inside my safe and not loan to other bank, because loan to other banks also earn me nothing (0%), some more if the counter party go bust I also kena teruk. Anyone can advice on this? hmm.gif
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Interbank rate is not at that range yet, it is the Fed fund rate.

3 month Libor rate is still at 1.7-1.9% range. When Lehman went down time, it goes as high as 4.++%.
TScherroy
post Dec 17 2008, 09:47 AM

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QUOTE(eltaria @ Dec 17 2008, 08:35 AM)
Aih, Ebroking down again.. EBeruk betul lar... here, give banana to it.. wake up lor, else my order will be sent at 9am only.. zzzz
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Give peanut, come out monkey, give banana, come out gorilla which is still sleeping laugh.gif

TScherroy
post Dec 17 2008, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(sampoo @ Dec 17 2008, 10:05 AM)
today ci is "V" or "VV" shape.  hmm.gif  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
VL shape tongue.gif

Because market is cheering and going up when Fed cut rate to near zero, but as time passed, market might think, hey now zero already, no more rate cut, what next? if economy still can't recovery with zero rate, then Fed is running out of option.
TScherroy
post Dec 17 2008, 08:24 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Dec 17 2008, 07:19 PM)
that's a true thing. how many of us here can practise this, buy and sleep with the share for the next 10 years.

i'd give a big applause for them biggrin.gif

back in 1998, i was only a 14 yo kiddo. i wish i know what does stock market is about!

look at IOI, 200 bucks only!
(i'm sure during that time i have money for that. but i doubt i will hold it for 10 years! probably will sell it after making few hundreds or so. short-sighted!)  sweat.gif

don't drool. not too late to learn to hold. lol.
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You are leaking your age already. tongue.gif biggrin.gif

Anyway back to topic
Situation now especially in US stocks and some here might be very very similar to what you have posted.

Now you see people have no confidence to buy stock at current moment, it was the same during 1998.

It is easy to look back what was happening and see the stupidness of people don't buy at that time. But currently, we might be already in this same situation, but people don't dare to buy.

You see clearly from the outside and something has passed. But when you are actually in the same situation at current time, you don't realise it at all that you are already in. Just like currently it might be a bottom or bottoming process, (may be or may be not) but do you hear people say now it is the bottom? No. You only hear people say it was a bottom when market going up back.

Simplified: You never hear it is the bottom, you only hear it was the bottom!

It is some sort like a fish living in the water, don't know there is water around. Get what I mean.


TScherroy
post Dec 17 2008, 10:19 PM

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QUOTE(kmarc @ Dec 17 2008, 09:40 PM)
Frankly speaking, I WAS looking at long-term investment. Had to change my plans due to the prediction that KLSE will create a new bottom in Q2-Q3 '09. Will only buy long-term stocks once I see what happens in Q2-Q3 '09. (Ya ya, I know. I have repeated this many times..... just want forumers to be aware of this prediction as it would be painful if this prediction came true..... wink.gif which I think is really REALLY possible)

Anybody targeting LCL? Predicted to get maximal capital gain (like KNM)......  hmm.gif
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If everyone prediction is right (Q2'09), now already a good time to start investing for long term, as market always behave way off people expected.

The problem I can see currently is not when is the bottom, surely it will come or already happening, no one knows, the main issue how long the slowdown or recession is going to drag on and severity of it.

If one sees longer term future is bright and economy will recover, then it makes not much different to invest let say KLCI at 850 or 800, ot 750, as if it able to surge to 1,200 or higher in longer future time. You don't time exactly for long term investment, you buy around that low level which is very very good enough already.

TScherroy
post Dec 17 2008, 11:24 PM

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QUOTE(kmarc @ Dec 17 2008, 10:25 PM)
I guess that's true in terms of long-term investment.

However, I want to maximise my returns  blush.gif Sell off when rally (i.e. Q1 '09), then buy on a new bottom (Q2-Q3 '09).... I understand nobody knows the top and the bottom..... guess it is wishful thinking on my part but it won't hurt to try....  icon_rolleyes.gif
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Whenever some try to think of maximise their return rate by in and out too often, (99%) it will backfire. Market won't wait for you, you won't able to time correctly the market.
What if you sell of then market still keep on rallying? Remember when market really turn, it really turn, won't look back anymore.

Not to say it can't, but just from experience, don't try too hard to time the market, it won't work most of the time, or most of the time wasting your effort and energy only. No offence, just based on experience and seeing lot of people doing it while not actually yielding anything out of it. It works perfectly in theory, practically, it is not as workable or as easy as one taught.
TScherroy
post Dec 18 2008, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Dec 18 2008, 10:28 AM)
oil dropped to USD39.60 this morning.

i would expect plantation to sink today, mana tau, terbalik pulak unsure.gif
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Yalor, CPO doesn't up either, but plantation stocks are bias to upside now in line with the improved market sentiment.

Don't think can grab more plantation stocks cheap cheap anymore at least for near term especially for the like KLK, it doesn't turn back now.
TScherroy
post Dec 18 2008, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Dec 18 2008, 10:48 AM)
hehe you're good, you caught it at 8.00 isn't biggrin.gif

yah, unless some big bad news coming down, otherwise, it would be peaceful and kicking.~
*
Not enough ler.
TScherroy
post Dec 18 2008, 03:15 PM

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It makes no sense for those plantation stock like Sime, IOI, KLK to rally so strong while CPO price is actually under pressure because of oil price dipping below USD40. Other than that possible window dressing, it is hard to find a reason for it.

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