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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 2 2011, 09:21 AM

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QUOTE(scorpio79 @ Feb 1 2011, 10:02 PM)
Greetings to all,
Can anyone inform me whether is there any new projects going on at SeriKembangan/Kg Bharu Puchong/Kajang/Bangi?
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izit for investment? why choose these area?
SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 3 2011, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(airline @ Feb 2 2011, 09:20 PM)
bandar puteri got shoplot bubble in 2009 and mont kiara in 2010?
mont kiara got meh?
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Mon't Kiara and Bdr Puteri are consider prime areas, the property price will be either stagnant or keep rising, in certain area bubble will cause the property price to drop, but bubble dun hv big impact on prime area due to continuing demand fr buyers...

Hence we hv 2 scenarios, if you dun believe MK and Puteri is bubble, then it is good for you to invest, just bought an unit of apt (old/new) RM500- RM2 mil to test, then you wait and see, or just invest any shoplot in Bdr Puteri, hope you are right, gd luck to you!!



SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 4 2011, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(fr33dom @ Feb 4 2011, 09:45 AM)
Really? As I see right now Kajang area housing start increase already... new launches house also need RM4XX K =.=!!

So far I already bought 1 unit in Kajang, when launch that time only RM215k from developer, now buy from owner RM350k .... sad.gif
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We must make clear that every area in KV has gold mine by it's own, when we mentioned Bangsar is prime in location does not means that all the sectors in BS can be invested, vice versa area like Balakong is under the radar, some areas appears to be gem tomorrow...
I follow 1 rule, invest in the area that I am familiar, I you live in Selayang, just study the vicinity area & the futures, and I believe you could find the diamond, to explore other area just need more more study
To buy property for own stay is one thing, for investment is much more complicated, we shd not limit ourselves merely to landed or condo for rent, there are many areas which were neglected by investors still like light industry, bungalow land, retail lots etc. When we are still discussing the property price in KV and Penang, our big big investors (developers) has gone far ahead to search for for their diamond in Sabah, Kelantan etc, these big shark make multiple gain over the recent years, what I know in certain Kelantan area, the land Price has gone up 5 times over the last 10 years...so, on the issue of overpricing, dun blame these small small house investors, the real culprits are the government, land owners and developers...
SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 6 2011, 02:20 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Feb 5 2011, 10:34 PM)
talking to my uncle....
his perception is buy condo (Sanderson) now at 3xxk, after completion sell at 500k
i see the way he was talking is like property will surely go up up up....

without using any sophisticated theory and calculation, it's easy to spot a bubble burst is very soon when aunty uncle believe it will up up up....

it happened exactly the same during 2007-2008 when everyone was buying unit trust
wink.gif
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is inappropriate to compare unit trust to real estate, product nature and mechanism are different at all, stock market and unit trust are under the same category
SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 6 2011, 11:17 AM

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If I am an active property investor, I really hope that most of the forummers are very very conservative, I could roughly guess 75% of views are quite negative, unlike China, Taiwan or Singapore, In Malaysia, our property price are going slow, it is a healthy sign...


SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 9 2011, 06:25 PM

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QUOTE(amco @ Feb 9 2011, 05:49 PM)
China;s RE is a bubble by price/capital income, 15x years average to salary, etc.

But dont forget >25% of new purchases in 2009-2010 was in cash... CASH!!. and the sub-urban numbers are believed to be much more higher.

I would say MY should burst before China.. by looking at the statistics. All eyes on CHina in next 50 years.

MY RE prices will follow and depend on CN, HK and SG. MY will take lead when the racist 513 happen again.
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513? Many more you shd worry? Korea war? another 911? 2012? water world? Islamic countries attack Singapore? Wat else? Better leave the earth
SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 10 2011, 08:43 AM

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QUOTE(epie @ Feb 9 2011, 07:49 PM)
sometimes when we think about the risks too much, we will miss the opportunities icon_idea.gif
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The key problem with some people is they keep forecasting that mkt will burst, but when the mkt really burst, they also hv thousands of excuses not to invest, why? Try to think in wat circumstances mkt will burst? there is no way mkt sentiment is good and stock mkt crash...if one dun prepare to take the risk, then forget about investment
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post Feb 10 2011, 08:59 AM

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The fact is real property investor buys more when market burst
SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 10 2011, 01:29 PM

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QUOTE(epie @ Feb 10 2011, 10:08 AM)
yeah, let say if the market burst..which we dunno exactly when
do u buy? can u predict the bottom price, people will again keep waiting
wait n wait...and during that time bank oso will tighten their policies to gives loan

for me, buy some, rent some and sell some all the times
better focus on right location rather then right timing
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Precisely, as I mentioned earlier, bubble happens sector to sector, at different place and timing, If we keeps waiting then chances may go away, of course homework is fundamental, one thing for sure, RM is only paper, better keep tangible good. However I personally feel that apt condo or service apt will be oversupply fr 2013 onwards in KV, be careful unless buy for own stay
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post Feb 10 2011, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Feb 10 2011, 01:33 PM)
Punters normally make money from props during good times.

Real investors make money from prop market irrespective good or bad times. 

For genuine home-owners........in most instance the earlier you buy, the better it is. Your goal is not to make money out of this exercise.....but to minimize your expenses, so getting in early is the key unless you have an ability to see the future. If you are trying to time for a drop but with no 100% certainty............then you r just a punter.
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SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 10 2011, 10:42 PM

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Buying for own stay and for investment is totally different story, dun mess up. Investment must put location as 1st consideration
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post Feb 11 2011, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(Suicidal Guy @ Feb 11 2011, 06:25 PM)
if we are hit by bad economy crisis, would demand for rental property increase? since people cant afford to buy their own home and even lose their current home.
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DD vs SS, over supply will cause price to drop, rental will drop too, just imagine, for instance, if MK price drop 30% and rental increase 20%, do you think anyone would be blurr blurr paying high rental? very simple if installment lower than rental, sure buy

why property is more stable, it some how cater for basic needs, it won't happen like stock mkt drop 70%, I remember one of the worst Talam project in Tmn Puncak Jalil, 212K developer price in 2000, 2004 lowest hitting 175K, now back to 300K

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post Feb 14 2011, 04:04 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Feb 13 2011, 11:21 PM)
a lot of people are still living in yesterday when the property price was cheaper. they expect the yesterday price, in today's reality.

imho, it's not that they do not know today's reality, they simply do not acknowledge and do not accept it, they rather complain because it is always easier to join the complaining mastermind group, than painfully accepting the reality.

for most people, it is hard to live in the new reality because their salary increment never beats the inflation (especially property), by accepting today's reality, it basically tell them that they have to downgrade their desired lifestyle such as the type of property they will be staying in. this group of people have no one to blame because they choose to stay in their comfort zone. even when there is an opportunity for them, they are always saying: "wait...lets see how it goes first..."

there is another group of people who is willing to walk the tough journey to increase the amount money they make. these people afford their properties, one after another.
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Best word "Downgrade" thumbup.gif

SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 14 2011, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Feb 14 2011, 04:39 PM)
OIC.

Pls read my previous post that I will buy agricultural land specifically rubber or oil palm.
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Over the past, investor made the most fr land (development) and industrial factories, followed by commercial shoplots, however, it is too complicated for most of the forummers here, it is specifically most suitable for commodity operator to invest....

brows.gif


Added on February 14, 2011, 5:16 pm
QUOTE(lucerne @ Feb 14 2011, 03:38 PM)
if you have a lot of cash, says a few mil?
how about if you pay cash 10 prop (300k each) and reinvest all the collected rentals to UT/ETF (annual return 8%)  until u can buy another property with cash again?  (u can save on lawyer fees  and bank interests by paying cash)
eg if rental income is 20k net/month (2k/mth x 10 prop) + profits from UTs, u can afford to buy a 300k prop again every 1 year.

p/s: in most cases, rental hardly cover the loan interest, based on current inflated properties prices. so it is not wise to have loan for rental income.
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When we say cash, there is different RM with Sing$$ and Reminbi, If all my cash are RM, I will try to convert it to real estate, no confident with the gomen doh.gif

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Feb 14 2011, 05:16 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 15 2011, 02:51 AM

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I read the title "If the property going to drop?" so many times, now I got the answer - "Malaysian's dream home requirement is one of the highest in Asia"

if we dun change our requirements or like someone mentioned earlier "downgrade" our needs, we will keep suffering...and even when property is really bubble, I dun think those low and middle income group can afford to buy theirs dream home....

Until today, we Malaysian still consider an average new double storey link or Condo / service apt at least 1500sf (in average prime location) is considered an ideal "home" for a family, anything below than that spec is miserable, I just came back fr Taiwan, knowing that a very successful film star is staying in a shop apartment and most of them are like that..I make a quick survey, majority think that owning at least a 25 tsubo (890sf) size apartment is the most ideal home and considered quite successful (1 tsubo = 35.6 sq ft), middle upper class group never think or dream of owning a landed property in the Taipei City, only those multi millionaire "businessman" has the privilege to live in. 20-30 years back they are like us, complaining the landed property was too expensive.

If we can't change the world, we change ourselves
1. Lower our requirement - downgrade
2. Dun compare yr wealth (when compare, you will never satisfy)
3. Keep our family size smaller, I am ok if my 2 kids are single (Dr. M 70 mil population target is going to kill the country)
4. Be more hardworking and change our attitude
Taiwanese really good, professional and hardworking, I really feel shameful, m very very lazy, and our gomen servants sick! Taiwan has almost same population like us, their servant total of 800K, we 2.2 mil.. shocking.gif
5. Give a chance to another group of people to manage the country, see anything better


SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 16 2011, 11:57 AM

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To apply other countries's property investment method will lead you to hell. My friend has bought 52 units of low cost flat fr auction in the last 1 yrs (which I totally disagree), he claimed that Singapore low cost house has very good rental, RM300 rental is projected.

I am waiting what will happen to him in the next 3 yrs, I stayed in Tasik Selatan low cost flat before BLK 26, it is nightmare!! Unlike Singapore, our gomen will never take care of our living environment
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post Feb 16 2011, 01:54 PM

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QUOTE(jessy123 @ Feb 16 2011, 01:02 PM)
IMO, in good or bad times, there will always be demand for rental of low cost flats..more so in bad times..however. having said that, managing this type of tenants is a huge challenge..and with so many units, you really need to do this full time or get someone to do it for you otherwise it will truly be a nightmare..

having bought so many, if the buyer decides one day he wants to offload, another challenge awaits him,IMO..
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True. RM300 isn't easy to collect, ideally 50 units cost 2.5 mil, collect RM15K every mth sounds ok. But in reality landlord is facing different type of tenants, illegal activities, collection problems, personal safety issue (collecting cash), utility usage disputes, runaway tenants etc... rclxub.gif
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post Feb 16 2011, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(eXTaTine @ Feb 16 2011, 04:03 PM)
Previously I felt like most of you, that the market is overheated and a correction could happen this year or next year, but with all the development planned by the government, it will effectively prevent any possible crash till the completion or almost completion of the MRT project, however once the MRT is completed I fully expect a huge crash, like in 1997/1998 when Twin Towers / Commonwealth Games era....
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Ha ha you must be kidding, MRT entire project takes 15 yrs, by then "if" nothing happen economy go steady, property price especially landed in prime area would easily 50%-200% up, by then how much does a huge crash (%) you are expecting? Dun wait if you are hoping so...
BTW I think mkt will hv huge crash if World War III between USA & China take on, let's see he he
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post Feb 16 2011, 06:18 PM

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QUOTE(eXTaTine @ Feb 16 2011, 04:58 PM)
MRT should be done before 2020...where got 15 years? Crash should be similar or larger than the crash in 1998, but that's my 2 cents....
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MRT has 3 lines, total 15 yrs. Dun trust our gomen too much, a simple mini LRT already drag fr 1998 till now just started...

In fact m more interested in "wat will home buyers react when market crash", if I ask now, the answer is certainly ''Buy, Buy, Buy!!"
however in reality, when it happen, most of them choose to hold on or wait & see, hope worsen some more....
My Neighbour who was searching for Kinrara house since 1996, said mkt will crash in 1997, he was correct when price drop fr 260K to 200K, he predicted will drop some more to 185K, I can't wait & bought 228K in 1998, he said riot will happen bcos political instability, will drop back to 190K, since then price has no way back & reach 430K now
Many people has right prediction, the problem is they never act at the right time rclxub.gif
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post Feb 17 2011, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Feb 17 2011, 09:49 AM)
Another opposite view pulak.  rclxub.gif
http://www.chinapress.com.my/content_new.a...rt=0217bs01.txt

捷運計劃擴散效應強
週邊房產或漲26%

報導:邱佩勛
(吉隆坡16日訊)建材成本與地價一再走高,加上捷運工程帶動,我國房地產價格漲勢洶湧,尤其捷運週遭的房產價格潛在漲幅或介于16%至26%。

往返雙溪毛糯和加影的捷運路線圖日前出爐,整體捷運計劃料每年提高房產總發展值約3億令吉。

分析界看好,在捷運站附近擁有大批地庫的地主,或有金主作后盾的發展商將是大贏家!

馬銀行投銀分析員黃薇芯告訴《中國報》,為迎合捷運目標市場,捷運站附近的房產一般以高密度計劃如中價公寓為主。

“這是我國首項捷運計劃,相信將推高週遭地區的房產和土地價格。”

另一名分析員指出,根據一份學術研究報告,香港距離捷運500公尺的房產價格,比其他地區房價高出16%至26%。

“這項漲幅和我們預測的一致。因為捷運附近的房產更容易售出,行情更好。”
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It will rise in general, say +-20% across the board fr now on till completion, however when train starts to operate, then those houses which are 100m+- in radius may hv price drop, 10%-20%

So in short, houses too near to track will increase a bit or no change, the rest sure rise in significant degree

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