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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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AVFAN
post Dec 29 2010, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Dec 28 2010, 04:22 PM)
Of course not to buy new at peak esp from almost all developers now in KV
+1.
if one hasn't experienced this, one has no idea. esp 1st time buyer, esp for high rise.
pay a hefty premium onli to know it was peak, price may stay flat for >10 years.

AVFAN
post Dec 31 2010, 11:55 AM

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from the last few posts, it looks like there just as many "survival of the fittest" as those with deeper compassion.

which probably explains the non-stop greed at the top of the privileged and powerful.

as the struggle becomes more like haves vs have-nots, one thing is sure - for most, the world is not becoming a better place to live.
AVFAN
post Jan 3 2011, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Jan 3 2011, 10:23 AM)
The problem now is affordability and as RE rose, salaries did not!  Further to this, you will find higher prices coming your way in areas such as food, water, electricity and fuel.
This my friends is the brutal reality of a false ecomony.  All the cards have been played.  This is not only a Malaysian thing but a global thing.
There will be finger pointing over the next 2-3 years and volatility not welcomed by the average investor.
As I've described before regarding RE, seriously unaffordable is where KL and selected KV properties sit today.  This matched with one of the highest debt to income ratio's in the world are two major ingredients for disaster!

can't agree more.

yet, there are many saying cheap homes easy to find, just look harder... lots of people can afiord mil rm homes... life is such.

surely nobdody is an angel and not that one individual can do anything about it, but if the awareness and sensibility is not even there, a lot people will suffer.

they say when the wind blows, one should not exhaust it, leave some for others behind you.


Added on January 3, 2011, 10:49 am
QUOTE(TheDoer @ Jan 3 2011, 10:10 AM)
Just wondering...
How does one, sell their property at a profit, then buy another house which is under valued?
In essence, wouldn't it be the same to just stick to that same property?
*

when one does that, it is usually in a diff area, diff variables.
another thing is one may need to sell a in order to regain the borrowing capacity to buy b.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 3 2011, 10:59 AM
AVFAN
post Jan 3 2011, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Jan 3 2011, 02:24 PM)
Is it because a certain area price will fluctuate faster then the current area?
*
diff area, many things diff - infra, amenities, schools, developers, town councils, demograhics, residents profile, wealth, etc.
some high end, some low end, all types. better developed areas lead, others lag.
in general, we have seen gorengers move from badly goreng-ed areas to yet-be-gorenged ones in the last 2 yrs.
check the other threads or other prop forums - puchong, kota damansara, selayang were favorites until price too high.
flippers now going after deep south cheras, kajang, sg buluh, klang...
once so-so or poor locations at "low" price now suddenly becomes "not bad" and therefore targets.
situation is not just due to gorengers; together with developers and banks, a trinity, feeding off each other.
buying a home now has become a nightmare on top of fast rising prices of food and transport.
it's not going to get any easier for the young generation w/o silver spoon in the mouth.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 3 2011, 04:14 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 6 2011, 07:32 PM

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sickening, isn't it? all that bs about inflation, prices still lower than sg, hk, tokyo...

the truth is this round of prop price hike - all gravy for certain groups. small time speculators are not the ones making the real killing. you know who made the big killings...

majority pay la... as usual.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 6 2011, 07:35 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2011, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Jan 8 2011, 10:50 AM)
But if you're one of those speculators who buy into the hype of Sepang, Bandar Baru Nilai, Bukit Beruntung, then your investments are mostly rendered worthless. I remember during the last property boom, these so called townships were very exciting just like some of the properties now! Most of them became ghost towns, where owners have to offer free rental for their commercial shop lots in order to attract business .. yet no takers!

Think ... this time the new hype might not be townships, but might be something else in disguise!

well said.

today, we actually see the same thing in various places. no shortage of such "promised" lands.

only diff is now a lot of hype and hope put on lrt-mrt.... and much lovelier artists impressions of malls and pretty faces holding shopping bags. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2011, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 8 2011, 03:38 PM)
So invest in properties has less downside risk than stock.
While any quality asset will turn up fast when economy turn better time.
*
we need to look at this part in the right context.

maybe right in principle, but at this time when prop prices are stretched high and household debt are at unseen levels, i am not so sure buying a new prop now has less downside risk than stocks.

for the investor, which one do you think has most risk, least risk now over say, a 2 yr period?

a. rm1mil condo in mont kiara, 100K downpayment, borrowing 90%.
b. rm1mil house in cyberjaya, 100K downpayment, borrowing 90%.
c. 100k in maybank stock at 9.00 per share

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 8 2011, 04:50 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 8 2011, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 8 2011, 03:38 PM)
So invest in properties has less downside risk than stock.

QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 8 2011, 05:03 PM)
I am a stock person, I will choose c as lesser risk, and better yield.  tongue.gif

hehe... interesting statement... so, whether it has more or less downside risk depends on one's preference for investment type? so, risk takes on an indivudual face? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 9 2011, 01:22 AM

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QUOTE(maxforce @ Jan 9 2011, 12:37 AM)
Current property market if using stock terminology - overbought.
Can it be even more overbought? Can, why not? Often happen in stocks, dont see why not in properties. But speculating in stocks in a sense is easier due to the liquidity. That said, if several session of limit downs, tu pening jugak. LOLz!
*
overbought is the right term! thumbup.gif
when market is normal, a few people in overbought position is not an issue - these are the ones who will actually make a good killing in the run up.
when a lot more are in overbought position, the risk can't be the same anymore.
i suppose the question then is how many overbought, how bad is the overall position?
one can have his/her own views on this.
just the people i know, i see many, some heavily overbought.
AVFAN
post Jan 9 2011, 07:15 PM

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QUOTE(jeff_v2 @ Jan 9 2011, 05:45 PM)
hi,
any opinion on a single storey terrace house at bandar kinrara 4? 
pp 200k? tq
*
while the gurus are having a heavy debate on current world macroeconomics, you dropped this. biggrin.gif

excellent timing for a break. thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 9 2011, 07:15 PM
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2011, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 11 2011, 09:30 AM)
I wonder why if one invest Bon, gold, commodity, stock market, less people complaint ha? rclxub.gif
*
that's because these do not affect the daily lives of the masses.

the day people start to "invest" in, i.e. buy up and even hoard rice and cooking oil, you will not see complaints but riots!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 11 2011, 09:54 AM
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2011, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 11 2011, 10:06 AM)
Correct also, but then I think the main culprit are those land owners, majority of the land are monopolized by big developers, these group make the most rclxms.gif
*
think about it - who are the biggest sharks in this madness? land owners, directors, powered people in authorising bodies, privileged buying big chunks with discount or the little fella talking in this forum? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 11 2011, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jan 11 2011, 10:42 AM)
sales agent! they have no risk and are just selling 'services'.

lawyers, land office and taxman will be on top.

AVFAN
post Jan 13 2011, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Jan 13 2011, 01:21 PM)
So before you say bubble going to burst, yup you are half right. Which segment are you referring to? Which properties, which class, which area, which one ….

this part, think everyone understand but in diff ways:
. if vested in highrise, will say landed will kaput
. if vested in landed, will say highrise kaput
. if vested in everything, nothing will kaput
. if not vest but waiting, everything will kaput
tongue.gif

oh, that dumpsite one - yep, looks very much like a trap for the waterfish!
AVFAN
post Jan 17 2011, 06:37 AM

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just read a long stockbroker report on commercial land/projects. they think the billions to be spent on mrt-lrt will jack up very high the commerical land price around those areas, so commercial props directly linked to the hotsopts will gain. i suppose residential units linked to these hubs will do relatively better than "remote" ones. maybe better buy these dev stocks rather than props!

QUOTE
MRT a structural catalyst to propel KL real estate to new
heights
• Largest upside for landbank near interchanges that are
earmarked for high density development
• Key hotspots: KLCC-Bukit Bintang, KL Sentral, Pusat
Bandar Damansara, KL EcoCity-Midvalley & Sentul.
• Large landowners in KL City will be biggest winners: YTL
Land, Selangor Properties, Guocoland, Bolton, SP Setia.


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 17 2011, 06:38 AM
AVFAN
post Jan 18 2011, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(salam03 @ Jan 18 2011, 06:17 PM)
the current rpgt was introduced back 1st Jan 2010....maybe 1st jan 2012 they can implement back,provided the relevant authorities already make a thorough study & closely monitor the house pricing.....but i believe that one beyond our control [the rpgt thingy], so if one's want to invest,make sure have enough holding power and not become a statistic of Non-performing-Loan...
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rpgt will surely be back, just a matter of time.

vote for bn in next ge, najis gets back 2/3 majority and confident, guarantee rpgt 30% will return. biggrin.gif

until then, they dare not do anything since prop/constr is big-big economic driver now. no one wants to see it die, becos everybody will suffer. if yr prop lose 100k value, some powerguns will lose 10mil or 100mil. can't let it die...
AVFAN
post Jan 18 2011, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(salam03 @ Jan 18 2011, 07:25 PM)
this time let the so-called powerguns die,coz country cannot afford to established another round of DanaHarta & DanaModal to clean all the s**t....and i thought auto industry is still the best income for Gov [somemore with AP holders policy]....
*
trust that it won't die until those rats are ready, like all $ in brazil or aregntina. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jan 19 2011, 07:19 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ Jan 19 2011, 04:28 PM)
BBB mode will only continue for the rich, while the middle and low income will monitor and watch. This trend will continue until a point where the rich will no longer able to suck up so many units, and the market stagnant for a time. It only needs to take a little "trigger" to mess up the trend. Check on the transactions made after the LTV for sub-sale props. Thats why investors now whack developers units instead of sub-sale. Because it's no point to buy overvalued props, and rental yield can't cover. Pushing up the price further will only draw more hopeful buyers away.
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think so. wait till fuel and food prices go up 30% in the next 2 years. see if people will buy high price homes or pay high rentals or stick to basics like food, utilities, transportation, etc.. food will be esp tricky since here, little food production, only build-build-build. and not production factories.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busines...-modest-growth/
AVFAN
post Jan 20 2011, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 20 2011, 01:20 PM)
Mont Kiara which was the high class area in the past has became reasonably priced now.
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mk has gone from high end-high expat rental enclave to a good mix with locals buying for own stay.
oversupply, bad traffic, some condos getting old, high rent expats facing extinction in the country are the reasons.
prices and rentals dropped significantly for all older ones, newer ones still OK.
many locals now buying for own stay.
since int'l school, nightlife etc. is very much alive there, this place will live, go on fine.
a lot more locals and maybe 3-4k rental foreigners eventually.
anyone still hoping to rent to 10k gweilos better do some research.
AVFAN
post Jan 21 2011, 11:20 PM

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QUOTE(xepa @ Jan 21 2011, 09:35 PM)
let's discuss, which area will burst? my guess, setia alam
*
if this guess is rite, bandar bkt raja burst worst.

guessing game ya?

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