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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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tinkerbel
post Jan 15 2010, 04:47 PM

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@kochin,
I do agree with you cost of living in MY is exorbitantly high. Don't even need to look far; just take Singapore as a comparison.

I don't even foresee property prices to drop; anyhow my family just bought into several properties so am keeping fingers crossed we'll make $ from the investments smile.gif
Onemorething
post Jan 15 2010, 08:34 PM

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A 50% drop in RE values in KL...likely not in our lifetimes however a correction in the next 18-24 yes in some overinflated areas based on investments using cheap money. How much one can only wait and see when rates go up and a double dip hitting MY exports again. This correction will be the same as the previous one but get used to not selling a damn thing to the US consumer over the next decade. Global imbalances, protectionism, decupling & currency crisis. And let's not get started new taxes coming our way.

Locally still looking for those preferred shares in Oil Gas, Banks and Utilities paying divendends....has anyone got a suggestion to what is out there!

Also, look to Silver (the poor man's gold) to make a strong play when the currency crisis takes hold. Now trading 60x GOLD, will trade at 15X GOLD historically in all other currency crisises documented.

Before the decade is over, East vs West, I just hope China doesnt implode! Maybe two currencies, backed by what though? and will there be a reserve currency in the end.





epalbee3
post Jan 15 2010, 10:34 PM

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it is not long.. just one or two years waiting time.

whether I got to buy cheap house.

Japan gone through the same stage during 90s, when everyone was confident.


eugene jk
post Jan 17 2010, 07:20 PM

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As taikor teach me a property investment mantra..

"Buy and Wait.. Don't Wait and Buy" .. hehe
SilverfoX
post Jan 18 2010, 12:45 AM

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QUOTE(eugene jk @ Jan 17 2010, 07:20 PM)
As taikor teach me a property investment mantra..

"Buy and Wait.. Don't Wait and Buy" .. hehe
*
Agreed.

"Now" is always the best time to buy.
Well, that is if you can afford it. smile.gif
epalbee3
post Jan 18 2010, 07:17 PM

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yeah.. but low BLR is an issue now.

The house price is high, yet interest is low. We might afford now.

But what if BLR is raised to stop cooking property?

1-2% raise will be a great hit to people who borrow.

I have no idea how people can raise BLR without being hurt..
Pai
post Jan 18 2010, 08:06 PM

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QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Jan 18 2010, 07:17 PM)
yeah.. but low BLR is an issue now.

The house price is high,  yet interest is low. We might afford now.

But what if BLR is raised to stop cooking property?

1-2% raise will be a great hit to people who borrow.

I have no idea how people can raise BLR without being hurt..
*
Its simple............. just buy props with great yields to ensure that u have enough buffer. If your property gives you 10% yield today, you would still have positive cash flow even if BLR is at 10%.

Its always better to buy a wonderful property at a fair price than a fair property at wonderful price. Sounds familiar? wink.gif
sulifeisgreat
post Jan 18 2010, 08:35 PM

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QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Jan 18 2010, 07:17 PM)
yeah.. but low BLR is an issue now.

The house price is high,  yet interest is low. We might afford now.

But what if BLR is raised to stop cooking property?

1-2% raise will be a great hit to people who borrow.

I have no idea how people can raise BLR without being hurt..
*
google is ur fren doh.gif tips: look at overall macro economic picture & not just for seorang view

http://books.google.com.my/books?id=ViDIT8...page&q=&f=false

also if the location is good, I do not forsee a 50% drop + if ur objective for investing in property is fulfil, just go ahead la nod.gif
life is a risk & we never know wil a piano fall from the sky on to us or not? ensure u got sufficient insurance, so no need buy mrta/ mlta cool2.gif
otherwise, can keep on building up your cash reserve to wait for doom & gloom
if u keeping reserve in fd, better hope inflation dun erode ur savings rolleyes.gif happy waiting

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real-es...-house-prices/M

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Malaysia

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Minolta
post Jan 18 2010, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Jan 18 2010, 08:06 PM)
Its simple............. just buy props with great yields to ensure that u have enough buffer. If your property gives you 10% yield today, you would still have positive cash flow even if BLR is at 10%.

Its always better to buy a wonderful property at a fair price than a fair property at wonderful price. Sounds familiar?  wink.gif
*
10% yield.........the Holy Grail of property investment.....kinda
epalbee3
post Jan 19 2010, 08:22 AM

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Let's me do some calculations:

Scenario 1: You borrow 400k. BLR is raised for 2%.
Initial monthly instalment: RM 2000
After that: RM2700

Scenario 2: You borrow 200k, BLR is raised for 2%
Initial Instalment: RM1000
After that: RM1350

For scenario 1, those who borrow 400k will have to pay more RM700.
And the problem now is even those with RM3k-5k dare to do this.
Do you think they can give more RM700 permonth? When they leverage to the most?

And if BLR is higher, house price will drop, so the rental should also drop.

Now: You have more to pay (RM700) per month and you receive less rental due to more competition to rent out. Then also the house price will drop, means your loan is higher than the asset value.

That's what I worry. do advise on this.

This post has been edited by epalbee3: Jan 19 2010, 08:24 AM
vdfoo
post Jan 19 2010, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(Minolta @ Jan 18 2010, 09:41 PM)
10% yield.........the Holy Grail of property investment.....kinda
*
i wonder where to find 10% yield, even if there is, would the owner want to let go in a price that allow u to get 10% yield?
IMHO, 6% is fair, 7% is good, 8% consider lucky....of course this is upon getting a unit, not after holding it for few years
Pai
post Jan 19 2010, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(vdfoo @ Jan 19 2010, 09:31 AM)
i wonder where to find 10% yield, even if there is, would the owner want to let go in a price that allow u to get 10% yield?
IMHO, 6% is fair, 7% is good, 8% consider lucky....of course this is upon getting a unit, not after holding it for few years
*
You are right, NORMALLY no owners would sell their props at 10% yield................so the trick here is to identify the potential & then parang the property quickly before everyone realises it can yield 10%.........

Its not easy but defo not impossible oso, in fact IMHO there's at least 3 dev today I 99% sure that could yield you 10% yield upon VP.....

wink.gif
moonh
post Jan 19 2010, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Jan 19 2010, 11:30 AM)
You are right, NORMALLY no owners would sell their props at 10% yield................so the trick here is to identify the potential & then parang the property quickly before everyone realises it can yield 10%.........

Its not easy but defo not impossible oso, in fact IMHO there's at least 3 dev today I 99% sure that could yield you 10% yield upon VP.....

wink.gif
*
one of them is i think TS.
not sure about ED, maybe can get good yield as well.
Zest? maybe, i'm not familiar with the area.


interferens
post Jan 19 2010, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Jan 19 2010, 08:22 AM)
Let's me do some calculations:

Scenario 1: You borrow 400k. BLR is raised for 2%.
Initial monthly instalment: RM 2000
After that: RM2700

Scenario 2: You borrow 200k, BLR is raised for 2%
Initial Instalment: RM1000
After that: RM1350

For scenario 1, those who borrow 400k will have to pay more RM700.
And the problem now is even those with RM3k-5k dare to do this.
Do you think they can give more RM700 permonth? When they leverage to the most?

And if BLR is higher, house price will drop, so the rental should also drop.

Now: You have more to pay (RM700) per month and you receive less rental due to more competition to rent out. Then also the house price will drop, means your loan is higher than the asset value.

That's what I worry. do advise on this.
*
i think, that make sense..especially for those who buy and rent a lot of houses..

Pai
post Jan 19 2010, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(moonh @ Jan 19 2010, 12:15 PM)
one of them is i think TS.
not sure about ED, maybe can get good yield as well.
Zest? maybe, i'm not familiar with the area.
*
Nope, its not TS......... coz TS is around 400k (curent dev's price) today and diff to get 10% yield at 400k entry,................. 8% is still do-able though...

These 3 projects, is not TS or ED........ wink.gif

kochin
post Jan 19 2010, 08:37 PM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Jan 19 2010, 07:29 PM)
Nope, its not TS......... coz TS is around 400k (curent dev's price) today and diff to get 10% yield at 400k entry,................. 8% is still do-able though...

These 3 projects, is not TS or ED........ wink.gif
*
come on now, pai, don't be a tease. just say it. vmad.gif
terzam
post Jan 19 2010, 08:50 PM

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The prospect of an increased BLR is a concern.
Unfortunately, such concern is neither a typical "decision" factor for most first-time buyers nor property investors. Over-stretching oneself into order to get your foot on the property ladder is not uncommon.
There are still good deals out there in the property market, after at least 2-3 years of price stagnant. It will boil down to whether you can hunt these bargains down within a good LOCATION.
Till then, I'll wait for a repeat of 97 (financially overstretching individuals) before launching myself onto the property ladder.
Pai
post Jan 19 2010, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jan 19 2010, 08:37 PM)
come on now, pai, don't be a tease. just say it.  vmad.gif
*
soon mate, very soon...... smile.gif
vdfoo
post Jan 19 2010, 11:41 PM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Jan 19 2010, 10:38 PM)
soon mate, very soon......  smile.gif
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lolx...how soon? after u bought some?
moonh
post Jan 20 2010, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jan 19 2010, 09:37 PM)
come on now, pai, don't be a tease. just say it.  vmad.gif
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i forgot about Palazzio.. tongue.gif

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