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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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sulifeisgreat	Dec 28 2009, 11:44 AM Return to original view \| Post #1
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	2010 is going to be a very difficult environment! If you own any asset, you need to find a buyer so you cannot afford to be overweight in anything! If Malaysia's dependance on exports continues, if the mortgage market continues to provide buyers with cheap money, then this is only the beginning or re-inflation of a local bubble - it will not end well! The others who are not in this camp will need to sell, especially when interest rates rise and they are unable to service their loans and/or valuations deminish downpayments. Watch for another 18-24 months of DEFLATION! Watch for the S&P the next 6-8 weeks for all the downward indicators. Watch for a GREAT UNWIND with very little place to hide in 2010 except the USD Index. Theme for 2010 - The beginning of second great depression! USD Index 0.825 - 0.88. Dont look to the Bond Market! Dont look to T-Bills or GOLD. Trades for 2010, stay on the sidelines, buy USD, watch for a dip in GOLD under 1000, sell off property, domestically I can only think of gov bonds and any strong bank and utility "divendend paying" stocks! [/quote] such interesting pessimism too general info & lacking in gory details the properties which i am watching so far, has only gone up my pbb epf unit trust advisor, has told me, to wait for the market correction market 6 months ago, but it did not appear also waiting to buy properties for rental income eg. around colleges setapak, bukit jalil & subang jaya or penang sentral in meantime, continuing to rock & roll, go long or short don't despair! put your money to work in USA example: ewm http://www.direxionshares.com/etfs seek & u will find Dec. 7, 2009, 4:19 p.m. Inflation will not get out of control, Bernanke promises U.S. economy on the mend, but has some distance yet to go By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- When the time comes, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to keep inflation under control, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday, adding that that time could be far away. With the U.S. economy still very fragile and unemployment so high, inflation isn't a pressing problem right now, Bernanke said in a talk to a group of economists in Washington. For now, getting the economy back on its feet is the top priority. "We have come a long way from the darkest period of the crisis, but we have some distance yet to go," Bernanke said, according to the text of his remarks released in Washington. Read Bernanke's speech. "Significant headwinds remain, including tight credit and a weak job market," he said. Riding the Rate Roller Coaster With bonds fully priced, it may be time to swap into preferred shares, utility stocks and other investment that offer protection if interest rates rise, according to Barron's Associate Editor Andrew Bary. Bernanke's talk was titled "Frequently Asked Questions." The most frequently asked question of the Fed right now is: Will the Fed let inflation get out of hand? "The answer is no," Bernanke said. "The Fed is committed to keeping inflation low and will be able to do so." However, inflation "appears likely to remain subdued for some time." Economists said there were few surprises in Bernanke's remarks. "His speech does not change our expectations that the Fed will stay on hold until early 2011," wrote Michael Hanson, an economist for Bank of America's Merrill Lynch. While there's more chatter among financial market participants about the Fed's first rate hike, most members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee have said it's too early in the recovery to consider higher interest rates. However, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said last week that he believed the Fed should raise rates sooner rather than later, citing the danger that inflation would become entrenched before the Fed can withdraw the stimulus. Plosser has no vote on the FOMC until 2011. See full story on Plosser's speech. Bernanke's remarks broke no new ground; he repeated the message he's been giving for months: * The economy is recovering, but is not growing fast enough to create many new jobs. Financial conditions have improved, but small businesses and households are still having a hard time getting credit. With jobs growing only slowly, consumer spending won't accelerate, and neither will consumer inflation. * To prevent a recurrence of the financial crisis, the Congress needs to approve new powers that would make sure Wall Street -- not the taxpayer -- pays for the next failure of a "too-big-to-fail" financial institution. And, by the way, the Fed needs new authorities as well to monitor the stability of the economy. * The Fed, in conjunction with other central banks and U.S. agencies, averted "a global financial meltdown that could have plunged the world into a second Great Depression." Because of Fed support for the financial system, businesses and consumers have greater access to credit than they would have had, and that support is helping the economy to recover. * Proposals to "audit" the Fed are a thinly disguised attempt to let Congress second-guess monetary policy decisions, and have nothing to do with the Fed's books or accounts. Bernanke's remarks come just over a week before the Federal Open Market Committee gathers in Washington for a two-day meeting. No one expects any major changes in policies at the Dec. 15 and 16 meeting, but observers will be watching for subtle and not-so-subtle shifts in wording that might provide hints about when the Fed will begin to reverse some of the extraordinary actions it's taken, including driving short-term rates to near zero. Bernanke gave no hints about the timing of the Fed's "exit strategy." He repeated the judgment of the FOMC that inflation is likely to remain subdued and warned that inflation rates could even move lower. "However, as the recovery strengthens, the time will come when it is appropriate to begin withdrawing the unprecedented monetary stimulus that is helping to support economic activity," Bernanke said. "We are confident that we have all the tools necessary to withdraw monetary stimulus in a timely and effective way." Bernanke said the Fed will be able to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates even before its balance sheet shrinks back to a normal size. One important tool will be the ability of the Fed to pay interest on the reserves that banks hold at the Fed. If necessary to prevent the economy from overheating, the Fed could raise the rate it pays to banks in order to entice them to deposit excess funds at the Fed, rather than lending them out. Reserves held at the Fed are effectively quarantined from the economy, and can't contribute to growth in the money supply or inflation. Right now, the Fed's problem is not too much money in the economy, but too little. Banks are keeping those extra reserves at the Fed (and not working in the economy) because they aren't lending much and because they want to maintain high capital ratios. According to the latest Fed data, commercial and industrial loans have declined by 17% in the past year, evidence that small businesses are still being denied credit. Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation...09-12-07-124100 » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « U.S. economy to grow too slowly to create many jobs, forecasters say http://www.marketwatch.com/story/little-im...24?pagenumber=1 here's one analyst, Bill's write up Dear Traders, My conclusions for 2010 are: Long term interest rates in most all countries are headed higher. The shape of the yield curve in the US is the steepest in over 30 years. This is a recovery signal. But it is an uncertain recovery like a sand castle on the beach. The big Tsunami wave can wipe away the castle at any time. By the 2nd quarter central banks around the world will be forced to exit their ultra easy monetary policies. Bond prices in most markets will tumble- this is true for government bonds as well as corporate bonds. As bond prices drop stocks will move ahead. Commodities, crude oil, gold will rise as inflation increases. At some point when interest rates on bonds exceed dividends on stocks the Dow will experience a steep correction and pull down markets world wide. Gold will find strong support at USD 1075 and should move back above 1250 in the weeks ahead. Shrinking mining supply as well as central bank demand will be supportive even in the face of higher interest rates. Currencies will remain stable as central banks world wide act in concert to raise rates. The AUD should outperform the USD and most other currencies as Australia will raise their interest rates faster than in the US . Australia is in much better financial condition than Europe / the UK or the US and has a vast supply of commodities- real assets which China requires for their development. Continue to deal in high grade blue chip dividend paying Malaysia shares and precious metals such as Am Precious metals but keep an eye out for the exit door. As the US continues to print vast quantities of paper money with nothing tangible to back it up- much of this liquidity will find its way into stocks and gold. - for the time being -but at some point the piper must be paid and there will be a collapse. I wonder who is going to pay for the new 30 + million US citizens with no health insurance who are now promissed free medical care by Obama? or who is going to bail out the bankrupt states like California or continue to fund wars in Afganistan and Iraq, mortgage bailouts for those who bought homes but do not have the means to service their loans ? I was reading the history of the Roman empire. It collapsed mainly because the politicians debased the currency, spent way beyond their means, waged expensive wars that ultimately bankrupted the Roman empire. I think the politicians in America are going down the same road. Especially Obama and his band of socialists. I hope all of you had a pleasant holiday and Merry Christmas and are recharged for 2010. Bill Dear Traders, Expect a quiet KLSE to the end of the year. Volume is drying up, institutions are closing their books. Avoid new positions. Keep your quality dividend shares. I am raising more cash in my managed accounts to take advantage of any steep corrections in January. I expect a steep new year correction in the S & P/ Dow . PE ratios in the major US markets are at 22 times earnings, far above the historical average of 15. The US Dollar carry trade is unwinding which will force margin call selling in stocks worldwide. Malaysia is well insulated as foreign ownership of our quality shares which we hold in our managed portfolios is low. Foreign funds can not sell what they do not own. They are also forbidden by exchange rules to short sell. Gold has had a steep fall and is finding support. Once the day traders/ thinly capitalized players and late comers to the party are washed out expect gold to recover. The same is true for the AUD. Support is at 86. The big picture has not changed. My bet is inflation, low interest rates, more social programs, higher taxes, continued high un employment, house defaults, bankruptcies, bank failures in the US. Once the short covering is over expect the USD to continue its downtrend. For US market Ameritrade accounts you may short sell the EZU ETF. This is a basket of European shares. IT has a mushroom top- very bearish. At our US market session Tuesday 730 PM at my office will short this ETF. We still have few seats for this session and let me know if you want to know how to trade US ETFs Risk 10 % on entry. Target 20 % profit. Have a good week Bill
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sulifeisgreat	Dec 29 2009, 10:02 AM Return to original view \| Post #2
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	QUOTE(Onemorething @ Dec 29 2009, 09:47 AM) Dont mistake pessimism with being a contrarian! As for listening to RE Agents, Banks, Brokers, Financial Advisors, Economists and most importantly the US FED Chairman, who do you think created the bubbles. There are only a very few I follow. Malaysia like most will lag behind the these predictions so yes the bubble will continue here and herd mentality in tact. I would expect you have some more time before you need to sell. How much time is the key, buying needs to be put off! i dun specialize in economics & dun think dow index will hit 6000 again also would not mind, put off buying for the moment but i dun plan to sell any properties i own or invested, i hapi with the rental income the property u currently stay or investing, where located? when u wanna sell? if below market value
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sulifeisgreat	Dec 30 2009, 01:19 AM Return to original view \| Post #3
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	After the 1997 crisis, the bank & companies in bolehland have tighten their screw, wish u happy waiting for doomsday if its true, the profit & opportunity is all yours Gee... found someone who shares your contrarian view if he is right & signal triggers, i gonna buy shorts etf till then http://www.fairfieldweekly.com/article.cfm?aid=16014 Although usa govt offering unlimited support to mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). the banks r doing a great job restricting lending & not kow tow to obama http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street...os-boss-2009-12 http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inves...ot-lending.aspx Since rpgt issue settle, this parties should be glad, 'The number of foreigners attending property forums and seminars. These potential buyers were looking to either purchase properties for investment or rental purposes', hmm... that's why i can't buy since they make prices going up http://www.starproperty.my/PropertyGuide/Legal/1156/0/0 Thanx for sharing! irregardless of positive or negative views, have fun [QUOTE] Don't take life so seriously... You'll never live through it
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sulifeisgreat	Jan 8 2010, 06:10 PM Return to original view \| Post #4
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	QUOTE(Onemorething @ Jan 8 2010, 02:46 PM) I believe 2010 will be a revealing year providing us with indicators of what is in store for the next decade in which one major shift will be a loss in love for RE. Residential & Commercial. Like I mentioned, anyone with over 40% of their net worth in this one investement is at high risk. If you want to look to where things are going, you dont have to look to far past the boomer generation which is, begining this year, starting to retire. Boomers will be faced with a simple conclusion to downsize and once the first phase occurs RE will tank. Compounded by interest rate increases, job losses, pay cuts and higher taxes....it wont stop! I don't know how much clear it gets than this: By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. regulators including the Federal Reserve warned banks to guard against possible losses from an end to low interest rates and reduce exposure or raise capital if needed. Let me point out a few things. 1. We have never seen a crash and rebound in US stock market history like what we have just experienced, except once. That "once" was 1929/1930. What followed next was a grueling grind - not a crash, but a grind that never ended, and in which the market lost more than 80% of it's value. Those who argue "the bigger the dive the bigger the bounce" forget that the only true comparison against what we have just seen was in fact the prelude to a grinding 90%+ overall decline. this is more like it giving us info & facts for our neutral viewing & letting us decide my view remains the same, base on the data collated in a few years time, we wil know the answer - for now, pls make your own stand & decide those who were waiting for great depression part 2 ala 1929 during early year 2009 mus be very dissapointed coz Ben did his research on tis & is the right man for the right job at the right time look at the year of the article http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/sp...022/default.htm http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2007/06/15/...-matters-today/ http://sify.com/finance/no-comparison-betw...egvc3geaad.html the thing is, did u make money from this about 'once in a decade' economic cycle crash? » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Washington Saved Us From Depression How close did we come to the Great Depression 2.0? That question will spawn a cottage industry of books, studies and conferences. But Christina Romer, the head of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, already has an answer: pretty darn close. Her conclusion deserves attention because Romer, in her previous academic career, was a scholar of the Great Depression. "Depression" is a term of art. It's more than a serious economic downturn. What distinguishes a depression from a harsh recession is paralyzing fear of the unknown — so great that it causes consumers, businesses and investors to retreat and panic. They hoard cash and desperately curtail spending. They sell stocks and other assets. A devastating loss of confidence inspires behavior that overwhelms the normal self-correcting mechanisms (lower interest rates, inventory resupply, cheap prices) that usually prevent a recession from becoming deep and prolonged: a depression. Comparing 1929 with 2007-09, Romer finds the initial blow to confidence far greater now than then. True, stock prices fell a third from September to December of 1929; but fewer Americans then owned stocks, and prices had risen early in the year. Moreover, home prices barely dropped. From December 1928 to December 1929, total household wealth declined only 3%. By contrast, the loss in household wealth between December 2007 and December 2008 was 17% — more than five times as large. Both stocks and homes, more widely held, suffered larger losses. Thus traumatized, the economy might have gone into a freefall ending in depression. Indeed, it did go into a freefall. The anniversary of Lehman Bros.' bankruptcy in mid-September inspired much commentary that saving the investment bank wouldn't have averted the crisis. Too many other lenders held bad loans. True. But allowing Lehman to fail almost certainly made the crisis worse. By creating more unknowns — which companies would be rescued, how much were "toxic" securities worth? — Lehman's bankruptcy converted normal anxieties into extreme fears that triggered panic. As credit markets froze, stock prices collapsed. By year-end, the Dow industrial average was down 23% from its pre-Lehman level and 34% from a year earlier. Financial panic poisoned popular psychology. In September 2008, the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence was 61.4. By February, it was 25.3. Shoppers recoiled from buying cars, appliances and other big-ticket items. Spending on such "durables" dropped at a 12% annual rate in 2008's third quarter, 20% in the fourth. With a slight lag, businesses canned capital projects; that spending fell at a 20% rate in the fourth quarter and a 39% rate in 2009's first quarter. That these huge declines didn't lead to depression mainly reflects, as Romer argues, countervailing government actions. Private markets for goods, services, labor and securities do mostly self-correct; but panic, driven by the acute fear of the unknown, feeds on itself and disarms these stabilizing tendencies. In this situation, only government can protect the economy as a whole, because most individuals and companies are involved in the self-defeating behavior of self-protection. Government's failure to perform this role in the early 1930s transformed recession into depression. That changed when newly inaugurated Franklin Roosevelt closed all banks on March 5, 1933. Many were already shut, having suffered massive withdrawals by terrified depositors who feared their funds would be lost. Yet, when banks reopened in midmonth, Americans re-deposited most of that money. The reason was not just Roosevelt's first calming Fireside Chat ("It is safer to keep your money in a reopened bank than under the mattress"), argues a study by economist William Silber of New York University. FDR's pledge was credible because the Federal Reserve was authorized to supply currency to any reopened bank equal to 100% of its deposits. Something analogous happened over the past year. Scholars will debate which interventions — the Federal Reserve propping up a failing credit system, the TARP, Obama's "stimulus" plan and banking "stress test" — counted most. Regardless, they all aimed to reassure people the freefall would stop and, thereby, curb the fear perpetuating the freefall. Confidence had to be restored so the economy's normal recovery mechanisms could operate. This seems to have happened. By last month, the consumer confidence index had rebounded to 53.1. Housing prices had stopped falling. By the Case-Shiller index, they've increased for three months. But this improved confidence is not optimism. It is the absence of terror. The consumer sentiment is still weak. Unemployment (9.8%) is abysmal, the recovery's strength unclear. Here, too, there is an echo from the 1930s. Despite bottoming in 1933, the Depression didn't really end until World War II. Government didn't ensure recovery. Some policies helped, some hurt. The good news today is simply that the bad news is not worse.
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sulifeisgreat	Jan 14 2010, 05:35 PM Return to original view \| Post #5
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	QUOTE(Onemorething @ Jan 13 2010, 12:41 PM) This is a great read. By Andy Xie 01.10.2010 18:32 Trapped Inside A Property Bubble When China's real estate bubble finally bursts while exports become less competitive, the consequences could be severe. http://english.caing.com/2010-01-10/100106991.html the feedback comments r funi Please give me some numbers to backup your statement above. The infrastructures, the business operating environment, transportation, availability of skilled workforce, subcontractors, materials, etc. determine the total cost of a product from manufacturing country to consuming country. Please tell me one product that China is currently producing and exporting that will no longer be competitive in the work market I will prove that you are wrong! I am a manufacturer in China since 1990 here is another site to support ur contrarian view Reading The Herald Tribune over breakfast in Hong Kong harbor last week, my eye went to the front-page story about how James Chanos — reportedly one of America’s most successful short-sellers, the man who bet that Enron was a fraud and made a fortune when that proved true and its stock collapsed — is now warning that China is “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse” and looking for ways to short that country’s economy before its bubbles burst. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/13/opinion/...tml?flyingspaghettimonster=opinion my view remains the same, until there r further signs of meltdown
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sulifeisgreat	Jan 18 2010, 08:35 PM Return to original view \| Post #6
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Jan 18 2010, 07:17 PM) yeah.. but low BLR is an issue now. The house price is high, yet interest is low. We might afford now. But what if BLR is raised to stop cooking property? 1-2% raise will be a great hit to people who borrow. I have no idea how people can raise BLR without being hurt.. google is ur fren tips: look at overall macro economic picture & not just for seorang view http://books.google.com.my/books?id=ViDIT8...page&q=&f=false also if the location is good, I do not forsee a 50% drop + if ur objective for investing in property is fulfil, just go ahead la life is a risk & we never know wil a piano fall from the sky on to us or not? ensure u got sufficient insurance, so no need buy mrta/ mlta otherwise, can keep on building up your cash reserve to wait for doom & gloom if u keeping reserve in fd, better hope inflation dun erode ur savings happy waiting http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/real-es...-house-prices/M http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Malaysia » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « here r some basic info for bonds & int rate, looking at the etf, the bet is int rate will be kept low in the usa, not sure abt other countries, u wil need to read up This post has been edited by sulifeisgreat: Jan 18 2010, 10:34 PM Attached thumbnail(s)
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sulifeisgreat	Jan 20 2010, 12:13 PM Return to original view \| Post #7
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	QUOTE(Pai @ Jan 20 2010, 11:57 AM) I normally put my $$$$ where my mouth is before I dare recommend anyone else to buy, boss....... Added on January 20, 2010, 11:58 am looks like u've been doing your homework...... its ok one la, u r property sifu, even if u recommend right or wrong, we may go in no need put monies where mouth is
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sulifeisgreat	Oct 6 2010, 07:55 PM Return to original view \| Post #8
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	sure or not this property bubble? wait until got janggut & cucu only can burst izit but this massive liquidity by world govt is fun! for me alredi diversified into bonds & those etf instrument during the market pullback just riding & wait for black swan TUZ 1-3 Year US Treasury FIVZ 3-7 Year U.S. Treasu TENZ 7-15 Year U.S. Treas GLJ 10+ Year Government LTPZ 15+ Year US Tips Ind UBT Ultra 20+ Year Treas ZROZ 25+ Yr Zero Cpn U AGZ Agency Bond VCSH Short-Term Corp Bd VCIT Interm-Tm Corp Bd VCLT Long-Term Corp Bond QUOTE(Onemorething @ Oct 6 2010, 09:14 AM) There seems to be many articles coming out now regarding potential bubbles in KL and KV. IMHO it's to late and those bubbles have been here for some time, the general public is just now waking up to it. KL and some locations in KV have been clearly following the lead of our western buddies and Asian counterparts. This was inevitable and isnt new. The banks - developers are the enablers. Policy chatter on regulations is just that, chatter. By the time any of these go into play, the bubble will be in full force if not already popped. This is the trend, spend till the end! Now that the masses are finding it hard to justify the Unaffordable cost of home ownership and the momentum against it is becoming main stream and great press however when housing gets to a point of 8.0x income and greater the purchases have all been made out of emotion and greed so there lies the tipping point of all RE bubbles or bubbles in general. The correction will come in KL and those prime locations in KV. To when, not sure but can tell you that between now and November mid term elections in US is a good indicator. New rounds of QE are happening in US, EUROPE and JAPAN. Currency devaluation and debasement will continue and stock markets are due for a correction downward. Trade wars between China/US are inevitable as well which is the last thing China wants right now. To believe in a recovery is to believe in the impossible. A recovery must be felt by the average consumer, not written in the MSM and preached by our governement. Dont worry about IF Malaysian regulation comes into play, it will be to late and furthermore the world markets correcting will lead to our correction. » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « furthermore if obama socialist team is gonna lose midterm election, y does market go down? shouldn't it be an event fill with joy which makes market up? no pain no gain for straddle position http://finance.yahoo.com/q/os?s=DIA&m=2010-11 hmm... looking at the open interest, there seems to more buyer for put option Barack Obama, June 23, 2009 : “Let me be clear, When I say if you have your plan and you like it, or you have a doctor and you like your doctor, that you don’t have to change plans, what I’m saying is the government is not going to make you change plans under health reform.” HEADLINES 6 months later: 1) http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/stor.../04/daily3.html 3M Co. will drop retirees from health plans, steer to Medicare 2) http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/...-104070558.html McDonald’s: Obamacare regulations will cause 30,000 employees to lose insurance 3) http://news.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/...osition=emailed ObamaCare Victims: Harvard Pilgrim was forced (by Medicare’s administration) to notify its customers that their plans would be canceled as of the end of this year. The company will offer another supplemental plan offering fewer benefits at a higher premium 4) http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2010/0...l#ixzz11V8GOKvg A bad omen on Obamacare: Fears about health reform’s costs are coming true ... several major corporations reported it would take a bite out of their future earnings. This group included AT&T, Caterpillar, John Deere, Verizon and several other large employers. 5) http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/s...-health-hazard/ Two major Minnesota insurers announced this week that they would stop selling individual policies because of Obamacare’s uncertainties. Instead, they are routing policyholders into more expensive plans. Meanwhile, Anthem BlueCross and BlueShield, Aetna, Cigna, CoventryOne, Humana and UnitedHealthCare have stopped offering many child-only policies because Obamacare would force them to enroll children with pre-existing conditions, creating incentives for parents to wait until children get sick before buying coverage and hitting insurance companies with the bills. Attached thumbnail(s)
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sulifeisgreat	Oct 8 2010, 08:06 PM Return to original view \| Post #9
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	nteresting so, wat action do we take in tis age of liquidity? just shout? put cash under mattress? pretend nothing happens? or let 9 year old toss the coin? QUOTE(Onemorething @ Oct 8 2010, 05:02 PM) What is with these Star Property writers. My 9 year old can write a more comprehensive article. Using RE for inflation hedging is OVER! In the western world for a decade or longer and in Asia (guessing 3 years). The age of the house in the West is done. The age of liquidity is here!
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sulifeisgreat	Oct 12 2010, 11:04 AM Return to original view \| Post #10
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	sure boh? I have no plans to sell any of my properties now & we see what happens by year end btw our bank criteria to lend money is STRICTER than usa, also our blr had been increasing but usa still near zero QUOTE(Onemorething @ Oct 11 2010, 03:29 PM) Wow the activity on this thread has really increased. I think people are missing the point here. Imposing cap gains tax is an attempt to control speculative bubbles. This could be done via rise in interest rates or combination of controls to cool the market. Any of this activity works against values of property meaning the buyer perceives the cost as more and seller must reduce the price accordingly. At peaks of bubbles you will see this type of regulation being discussed when the bubble is already present then the government and potentially banks are asking for a soft landing. The posts here suggest classic bubble mentality and emotional reaction to RE that is currently in play globally. We in Malaysia are only lagging other Asian markets which will correcting by year end then we will follow soon after. Your window to take gains now is 3-6 months.
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sulifeisgreat	Oct 12 2010, 11:39 AM Return to original view \| Post #11
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	gee... dunno about the others but I do not treat my properties investment nor those 1st liner klse shares / unit trust as a stock market speculation game its for rental income, dividends, bonus issue & what not (long term holding) sooner or later, liquidity will dry up. market crash come & go, do ensure got reserves to grab opportunity since the last crisis was 2008, maybe the next one could be 8-16 years later the current crisis is too fresh in our mind & there r not enuf suckers sucked in yet if there r good property deals now, I'll still grab yeehaa... QUOTE(klbull @ Oct 12 2010, 11:24 AM) The great thing about speculative investment activity, ultimately resulting in a price bubble forming, is that it can keep on going longer if 1 more and more suckers join in 2 liquidity does not dry up 3 authorities do not intervene The property game is not that different from the stock market game. Greed rules the day but it cannot rule forever. Ultimately, something happens to bring people to their senses and the partying stops. Just don't be left holding the zero's.
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sulifeisgreat	Oct 20 2010, 03:56 AM Return to original view \| Post #12
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	interesting observation by our very own dr doom & gloom I dun disagree with ur premise, only the timing & location seems suspek for an example, lets take a walk down history for the heck of it http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DIA&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=c&c= 1) from feb-oct 2007, market still up 2) feds let lehman die http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/15/news/econo...eline/index.htm 1) remember the initial rippling of the financial tsunami, see the headlines, still no impact on market yet 2) from sept 2008 onwards, the collapse starts 3) a basic understanding of how sub prime works. any opinion on the outcome for banks, on those who cannot afford homes yet be given loan? now does bolehland or most nations practice the lax lending standards? http://blogs.howstuffworks.com/2007/11/28/...e-crisis-works/ 4) where were u during 1997? just watching the asia financial crisis & never sent ur capital to work hard for u overseas? http://www.foreclosuredataonline.com/blog/...d-it-all-start/ "The sub prime mortgage crisis was born in a decade-long housing boom fueled by low interest rates and excess liquidity... The serious sub prime crisis began in June of 2007 when two Bear Stearns hedge funds collapsed" 5) pls provide links that republicans r responsible for the mess, i wanna learn too http://winteryknight.wordpress.com/2010/10...-the-recession/ "When US Representative Barney Frank spoke in a packed hearing room on Capitol Hill seven years ago, he did not imagine that his words would eventually haunt a reelection bid. The issue that day in 2003 was whether mortgage backers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were fiscally strong. Frank declared with his trademark confidence that they were, accusing critics and regulators of exaggerating threats to Fannie’s and Freddie’s financial integrity. And, the Massachusetts Democrat maintained, “even if there were problems, the federal government doesn’t bail them out.’’ 6) I luv short sellers, coz the FA news took some slow snail time for the masses to be aware, but TA alredi hammering them early yr 2008 http://www.securitiesarbitration.com/lehman-timeline.php "Lehman also fought a running battle with short sellers. The company accused them of spreading rumors to drive down the stock's price; Lehman's critics responded by questioning whether the firm had come clean about the true size of its losses. As time passed and losses mounted, an increasing number of investors sided with the critics" 7) of coz it is a bit difficult to time the market. someone with this subprime understanding who avoided investment/ banking stocks during 1997 in usa, would have miss the ride up. would it not be better to let the market decide later on, rather than to insist u r right & miss all the opportunities. did properties in bangsar or ttdi fell during 1997 financial crisis? http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?ne...420082316410112 QUOTE(Onemorething @ Oct 19 2010, 08:25 PM) You all cant honestly expect this to end well! Again the examples being discussed here are just symptoms related to the problem. RE will correct!
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sulifeisgreat	Oct 20 2010, 11:24 AM Return to original view \| Post #13
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	who is able to buy properties with such high downpayments? the rich, average or poor? http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/chi...rket-56189.aspx I like the statement "Most of the owners of these high end properties have “holding power” and will not be tempted to sell their properties at substantial losses" http://www.kiararealty.com.my/article_acco..._mont_kiara.asp "tendency for affluent investors to hedge their wealth in prime real estate when there is a flight to quality, and these investors having strong holding power" & "Mr Ho believes the sustainability of the property market will hinge largely on the stockmarket performance given the correlation between the two" http://www.presidiopenthouse.com/realestat...manager/kl.html life is never fair & suggest check on the auction advertisements to find those flippers tat is killed the average & poor can only look on & hope for change, viva revolution! venezuela here we cum » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Ultra-Rich in Finance Are Meaner Than Rest of Us: Matthew Lynn By Matthew Lynn - Sep 7, 2010 6:00 AM GMT+0700 Bloomberg Opinion Lynn Matthew Lynn There is something surprising about a private banker warning his colleagues about the rich. It would be like a director of Volkswagen AG casting doubt on motorists, or the boss of McDonald’s Corp. distancing himself from people who eat fast food. Rather like valets, the main aim of the private banker is to court the wealthy. At a conference in Zurich last week, the head of Barclays Wealth Management’s private-banking unit, Gerard Aquilina, appeared to issue a red alert about the richest of clients. “Beware of the complexities of dealing with ultra high net worths,” Aquilina told his audience. “Demanding and often unreasonable” requests from them may create “impossible demands on the organization.” Such as? Help with getting children into the right school, securing credit to buy property, or obtaining last-minute concert tickets, for example. Even worse, the richest of the rich turn out to be pretty stingy as well. They don’t even want to pay the full fee for all the services they demand. It was strong stuff. But it was also an insight into the way the rich have changed over the past decade. They are, it turns out, a nasty bunch of people who are only getting nastier. And the banking industry only has itself to blame. Customer Demands To some degree, Aquilina’s warning can be seen as the kind of observation you find in every industry. Executives in any business tend to feel the real trouble always comes from the customer, who is often stupid, unreasonable and annoying, and sometimes all of the above. No doubt, the software engineers at Microsoft Corp. fume about all those blockheads who don’t know how to partition their hard drive, or re-configure the registry file. There must be countless airline executives who occasionally dream about how smoothly their planes would circle the globe if only they didn’t have to fill them up with stupid tourists, their snotty children, and their overstuffed bags. It’s always the case that people are going to be irritated by those they have to serve. There’s no reason that even super- smooth private bankers should be exempt from that. But Aquilina makes an interesting point. There is an increasing amount of evidence that the rich are a vicious tribe of people. One study last year from the University of California, Berkeley, found that the rich are ruder than others. Another piece of research, conducted at the same institution, concluded they were less likely to give to charity than poorer people were. A third study, carried out at the Humboldt University in Berlin, concluded they were “nastier,” in the sense of being keener to punish others. Top of Tree Nothing is shocking about that. You don’t get to be rich without being difficult and demanding. You need some sharp elbows to get to the top of the tree, and there is no point in being squeamish about treading on a few toes along the way. And the rich have a lot more to protect than other people: They have to be fierce to hang on to all that wealth. They have probably been vicious ever since one caveman used a bigger club to take control of the grandest cave on the hill. In the past, most fortunes were built in association with ordinary people. Factory owners were aware of the shop-floor workers on whom their wealth depended, and that shaped the view of themselves. Carmaker Henry Ford doubled his workers’ average pay to $5 a day in 1913 and shortened their working hours. The Cadbury family of chocolate makers in the U.K. built a small town for many of the company’s workers in Bournville, near Birmingham, in the 19th century. That made them more human. The growth of the financial-services industry and the bonus culture has changed that. The investment bankers and hedge-fund managers who make up most of the new rich elite don’t have much contact with ordinary people. They assume their wealth is entirely the result of their own brilliance. And they cut themselves off from normal life. It is an industry that mints billionaires and also breeds arrogance, selfishness and snobbishness. Aquilina has put a spotlight on an industry that only has itself to blame. Maybe that’s why he’s warning others. (Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist and the author of “Bust,” a forthcoming book on the Greek debt crisis. The opinions expressed are his own.)
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sulifeisgreat	Oct 20 2010, 05:14 PM Return to original view \| Post #14
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	The last three property booms peaked in 1973, 1985, 1997. In our view, we are in the early stages of the next boom http://www.freesubmitwebsiteurl.net/busine...w.aiqglobal.com do u consider yr 2008 msia encounter mild recession? if yes, then next phase could be 2013-2018 http://eprints.utm.my/1311/1/norhaya-REER_SEMINAR.pdf if no, we should be due for one anytime this never ending argument will only have 1 conclusion the market shall decide - good luck doomers & gloomers http://www.mip.org.my/forms/land1.pdf
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sulifeisgreat	Oct 21 2010, 12:25 PM Return to original view \| Post #15
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	yes, history likes to repeat itself, coz it needs about a decade to breed new untried, untested, virgin suckers (newbies who have no idea & did not research on how to utilise their funds) How Interest Rates Affect The Stock Market http://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/in...fectsmarket.asp the stock market crash and the subsequent Depression were actually caused by tight monetary policies http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdomesti..._Depression.htm Victory over inflation came at a cost in terms of unemployment, but the outcome was unmistakable. http://www.econreview.com/events/volker1982b.htm which smart arse govt wants to cause a worldwide depression? got so much money circulating around & those who work hard or think smart can access it where would u put the money if u got ur hands on it? fd? hmm...wonder y properties prices & etc go up as usual, some of those free loaders & hoping for handouts will be cursing left, right & centre but there r oso pessimist, who keeps their stash in fd & await the HUGE crash, good luck beating inflation QUOTE(PUPUMAMA @ Oct 21 2010, 10:56 AM) I agree that will be a never ending argument on this topic. Investors will be hoping on never ending price hike and those lower income category will hope on property bubble. There are increasing number of expatriate who are working and living in KV and for us "Malaysian" we all want to own our 1st home. With the current price hike, many of us is unable to have our dream house that's why our government have implemented 100% loan for properties below 220k. There are still demand on properties, properties price will go down if there will be no demand and investors are on selling mode. At current BBB mode I don't see sign of property bubble.
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sulifeisgreat	Oct 28 2010, 09:42 AM Return to original view \| Post #16
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	post #1071 http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/741185/+1060 haha... close position liao on t-bills » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries fell on Friday and pushed portions of the Treasury curve to record steep levels after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke raised expectations the Fed would try to create inflation. That made holding 30-year Treasury bonds, and even 10-year notes, at current low yields less attractive, since future inflation would drive interest rates higher and erode their value. Longer-dated bond prices also continued to be undermined by a poor reception in an auction of 30-year securities on Thursday. Shorter-dated Treasury debt prices were supported by the Fed purchasing government securities on the open market. Thirty-year Treasury bonds yielded 3.99%, up from 3.92% late on Thursday. The yield reached as high as 4.02%, the loftiest in five weeks, and the bond was on track for its biggest weekly rise in yield since August, 2009. The rise in longer-dated rates also steepened the Treasury curve dramatically, with the spread between five-year note yields and 30-year bond yields, along with the spread between 10-year note yields and 30-year bond yields, moving to record wide levels, according to Thomson Reuters DataStream. Traders sold long bonds and 10-year notes after Bernanke's speech, delivered to a conference in Boston, conveyed a focus on inflation targets. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes yielded 2.57%, up from 2.51% late on Thursday. Separately, data on U.S. consumer prices showed a smaller-than-expected rise in September. Fed action on inflation will most likely entail a new Treasury purchase program, something bond traders have been anticipating for weeks. Trading in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities also supported the idea that the sell-off was based on inflation expectations. The spread between the yields on U.S. 10-year TIPS and regular 10-year Treasury notes reached 2.14%, its widest in nearly 5 months. On Aug 24, the spread, which is a market gauge of inflation expectations, was 1.50%. Three-year notes yielded 0.60%, down from 0.62% late on Thursday.
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sulifeisgreat	Dec 31 2010, 10:10 AM Return to original view \| Post #17
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	world is never fair, learn to live with it & dun expect handouts. learn see things as opportunity instead of suffering tis is call the free market system. even china, russia, cuba, vietnam & etc has join the club if u wan control economy. then better migrate to venezula & zimbabwe, the country will jaga u price move up & down depending on demand & supply, since now everyone can live longer & healthy they had bought their prop in kv 20-30yr ago, y they wanna sell? they can give their anak2 unless u offer them a price, they willing to let go. most wont'! so price go up lo those who got money, oso wan stay near kv. they willing pay for those expensive new property/ buy old & renovate if dun mind, get those low cost to medium cost flat around, still in kv mah! so start somewhere & work upwards, dun be complain king & wait for dream bubble burst y want to blame speculators/ gamblers? must work smart, not hard they take a risk with their capital & forsee a trend. if they lose, they lose! eg. bukit beruntung those 'di bawah tempurung', cannot blame external events, coz they dun bother wat is going on in the world eg. share market. if usa interest rate low, who wan keep in bank earn peanuts? they will sent the money overseas to work, earn profit, then settle the cheap loan interest if u wan some of tis hot money to dissapear, wait usa increase interest rate eg. china will limit rare earth exports. its use as component inside those hybrid & hi-tech stuff u just bought. if that company owns the mine. but not yet start production & etc http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%...1&tof=158&frt=2 do u buy shares now, as u forsee a trend of china not lifting quota (then speculator lo) or u, as a value investor await actual sales happening (then turtle lo) or pretend nothing happen, & let others settle tis issue, while u carry on with ur blissful ignorance life (complain king) regarding bernie madoof, soros & etc. early bird catch worm! late bird, catch no worm! so r u a bird or worm most of u in lyn r quite loaded. usd25k not a problemo? wanna invest in facebook? only usd40 http://www.sharespost.com/companies/facebook This post has been edited by sulifeisgreat: Dec 31 2010, 10:21 AM
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sulifeisgreat	Jan 7 2011, 12:54 AM Return to original view \| Post #18
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	taking bolehland worst recession in 69, 85, 97 & etc, did property prices really fall drastically did kl kepong go buy prime lands during tat crisis? did ytl go buy sg wang during tat crisis? were those crisis time frame 5 years apart? when we r not using the same banking lending standards as usa, japan & china! y must we follow their in their falling or perceived falling? last time, we got x million rakyat. years later, xx million more rakyat will be born, as time goes by, there is more rakyat & more will cum but only got limited area/ land in kv & penang. I dun see kv or penang growing in size as time goes by, coz it can't! the same can be said for commodities prices, coz china is growing & she needs to eat for the country to grow they have tasted capitalism freedom & no one wants to ride tricycle anymore or go farming, communism is just in name only in another 5 years time, the new rakyat/ new graduates will buy the areas or newly open areas in kv & penang, driving the price higher those who want to wait, can wait eg. areas around ikea, damansara perdana (coming soon, sg. buloh ex kusta hospital) whether u like it or not, inflation is alwiz here! dun believe? go ask popo or grand popo, last time bak kut teh & nasi lemak, how much? in 40 years time, ur anak2 will also ask u the same question. eh? how come we still renting ah? waiting for ayam lay eggs or revolution? if u had taken the maybank 40 years home loan, by tat time, they ask silly soalan, the loan alredi ho seh liao lo & u won't sell the property either, u will teach the same lesson to those who wanna wait 40 years later, haha y not buy medium cost flat? unless u all wan face? must be aksyen ke? accept fats & do wat is achivable within ur means the properties I bought, did not sell. got many buyers, willing pay 40% to 80% higher but i prefer to keep it for rental income coz I wan to have happy cucus
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sulifeisgreat	Jan 7 2011, 01:19 AM Return to original view \| Post #19
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	no idea on tat... but how come price of goods, nasi lemak, teh tarik, ron97 & etc increasing & not in tandem with the purchasing power (salary increase) of the average citizen? how come the govt kenot save us?? y dun they go ask china go back to farming??? coz my car luv ron97 sumore some developers r throwing in freebies & lotsmore to entice us. the last time I recall eating their bait was in 1997/98 & just recently 2008. tat time govt give waiver stamp duty oso. the recent was no rpgt. nyum nyum... u should know la, after tat, wat happen. clue : price did not go down but its a free world & the decision is yours! btw, y not use epf, get a house? the return on house sure beats epf & fd rate or izit not?
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sulifeisgreat	Jan 7 2011, 01:05 PM Return to original view \| Post #20
Regular Senior Member 1,121 posts Joined: Oct 2009 From: transiting asteroid	similarities between pyramid/ponzi schemes and property speculation? >property backed up by real hard asset which the bank can foreclose when u bet wrong. how is ponzi similar? its backed up by wat? ponzi real hard arse? not forcloseable leh There will be a point when all the rich smart elect speculators out there will be stuck with all their luxury homes, but no one to sell to. There is a "guaranteed" return on investment, as long as you have a bottom line aka someone willing to buy the house off you, with the hopes of making money just like you. >rule no.1 of invest property is location, location & location. if i not selling it, would all the others who owns it wan to sell? (they keep on dropping flyers in my mailbox, saying got interested purchaser & agent fee no need pay) >coz got holding power & location goodie. there will alwiz be buyers like u. but there r not much sellers. u wil hav to up the price 40-80% but still I won't let go. unless can find those haunted units There will be a saturation point, when nobody can afford, or there are no more gullible people around anymore. >the saturation point will come once nobody wants to F & produce rakyat. then less rakyat, means more empty properties. supply more than demand. but dunno need to wait till wat year? 999 years? dun play2 small flat, those flat in damansara perdana can fetch rental $1100 if wan bigger space, bukit beruntung looks good. or else get those price no increase much la, coz location sux to stay back on topic, have the property price drop? in wet dreams, cuming soon. but in real life, QUOTE(TheDoer @ Jan 7 2011, 10:46 AM) Nasi lemak, etc, price increase we complain, Our salary is fixed, but we are still able to afford this. The demand will not drop. Now if the price of a home, requires us to take a loan 50% to 100% of our income. Do you think that is ever going to happen? There will be a point when all the rich smart elect speculators out there will be stuck with all their luxury homes, but no one to sell to. Because the rest of us, will be forced to stay in small flats as you said. So naturally, an adjustment will happen. Added on January 7, 2011, 10:52 am Perhaps the term use maybe different. but the geist is there. There is an actual value of a commodity, and the percieved or inflated value of a commodity. There is no denying that. If people start speculating on a piece of paper sign by a kid (with condition there won't be new ones). Then of course the price of that piece of paper may go up, to the point of infinity. People will celebrate and party like there's no tomorrow. But nonetheless, it's still just a useless piece of paper, and that's the actual value of it. Added on January 7, 2011, 11:02 amI had mentioned the similarities between pyramid/ponzi schemes and property speculation, and have yet to get feedback on it. I would like to propose that those $.$ people out there might want to consider it also, because it's basically the same thing. There is a "guaranteed" return on investment, as long as you have a bottom line aka someone willing to buy the house off you, with the hopes of making money just like you. similarly, There will be a saturation point, when nobody can afford, or there are no more gullible people around anymore. If you are the upline (person who bought early), then confirm, you have made some money, if you are the downline (last person who is holding on to the property)... too bad loh.
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