Forex Trading Corver V3, How's Your Pips Lately? ^_^
Forex Trading Corver V3, How's Your Pips Lately? ^_^
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Aug 12 2008, 02:22 PM
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#1
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Senior Member
4,030 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
Euro to fall below 1.48 tonight. That's for sure.
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Aug 12 2008, 02:35 PM
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#2
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Aug 11 2008, 11:33 PM) Yes, French and German GDP will disappoint and contract more than suspected.Added on August 12, 2008, 2:37 pmHere's how i look at it, if everyone's going into a recession; it's always best to buy the dollar since the dollar has never defaulted. This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 12 2008, 02:37 PM |
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Aug 12 2008, 02:58 PM
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#3
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4,030 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
Simple logic, there were signs that the euro zone cannot take any more interest hike. Trichet said, okay let's have one more to contain inflation. What he did not expect was that the oil price would have come down despite the fact of everyone's favorite, long oil, short dollar. There was signs of demand destruction for oil but ECB chose to ignore it.
Now, everyone's getting out of euro positions to purchase us equities because us equites was first to reflect the pending recession. Within 2 weeks, you will see euro fall to 1.45. There's no fundamental change in the US economy but the fact the euro zone is going into a deep recession will pressure traders to buy dollar and us equities. Just my 2 cents. This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 12 2008, 03:01 PM |
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Aug 12 2008, 03:06 PM
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#4
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4,030 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 12:04 AM) i think he did it on purpose......strong euro is not very good for the economy Yes, the sharp decline is unexpected, but this is the very first test of euro zone economy and for the ECB. Now the ECB's credibility is being analyzed and scrutinized by traders. Any hint that ECB will decrease IR will cause the euro to drop like a rock.overall trend is down.....but i think now is retracement time.....the euro has been dropping so long.....currency drop too fast also not a good sign |
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Aug 12 2008, 03:11 PM
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#5
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4,030 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
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Aug 12 2008, 03:22 PM
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#6
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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 12:13 AM) agree with you...... Yes, that's why he will see if tomorrow's GDP numbers. Obviously he's facing two headwinds, both higher inflation and a slower economy. But which is more important? Combating inflation or recession?thats why i dun like counter trend trade anymore....to scary Added on August 12, 2008, 3:15 pm drop rate or not its not ganna affect tomolo GDP result The ECB has always been hawkish in combating inflation, they only have a single mandate. Now if the GDP numbers disappoint, they have to rethink and this is why traders are dumping euros now. The signs are clear, german confidence has been going down and germany's exports is decreasing at a rapid rate. If he decides to stick 4.25% the next meeting, he's a dumbass. Added on August 12, 2008, 3:24 pmBreaking news: ECB aims to drain liquidity from money market. This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 12 2008, 03:24 PM |
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Aug 12 2008, 03:26 PM
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#7
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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 12:24 AM) why traders dumping the euro? Simple, the euro zone is relatively new compare to the U.S. That's why traders are getting anxious especially when politics bickering between euro countries are still prevalent.i tot last time there is announcement on ECB that they r going to make euro go lower....or is it other currency im confuse with~ |
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Aug 12 2008, 03:28 PM
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#8
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Euro is going up due to ECB's decision to drain excess liquidity in the money market.
Added on August 12, 2008, 3:29 pm QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 12:28 AM) They just did. It's on CNBC now. They are draining euro from M1 supply.This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 12 2008, 03:29 PM |
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Aug 12 2008, 03:34 PM
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#9
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4,030 posts Joined: Apr 2008 |
Might be a bigger retracement for the euro if the retail sales in the US is not convincing.
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Aug 12 2008, 04:28 PM
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#10
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QUOTE(billytong @ Aug 12 2008, 01:08 AM) I would be calling the retail sales to be -ve USD. Yes, the bear is definitely more powerful than the bull in this case. The Euro currency is relatively new and has never gone an extreme test. Now the traders will pitch against the ECB, and honestly, i can say the traders will win.but the tradeblance tonight would be helping USD. so on the nut case all the time there has been near to zero buying power for euro. The bear seems to be much larger than the bulls now. CPI of euro must be print equal or better to stop euro from sliding. Any colder print will make euro slides. As for the ECB rates. I would say ECB would hold again for the next meeting. Moving back to 4.0% will mean they are admitting their mistake for the previous rate hike. A rate cut will happen but not at this close to the last rate hike. Politician dont like to admit their mistake. 4.25% will probably for their "saving face". |
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Aug 12 2008, 05:24 PM
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#11
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Russia confirmed it will end millitary operations in Georgia. This means, short oil, short euro , long dollar.
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Aug 13 2008, 11:08 AM
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#12
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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 06:56 PM) Basically carry trade gained after US financials are again under the microscope. The news itself gives jitters to US longs to bail out to take profit. Again, the French and German GDP will be key today, along with US CPI. |
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Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM
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#13
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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 08:10 PM) First, we have to the see UK economy slowing further. There's no big news that might cause the GBP to fall drastically. However, if US housing can show any signs of recovery, then we might see the dollar gain against the GBP. I think most likely the French and German GDP numbers might somewhat affect the poor business sentiment in UK.This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM |
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Aug 13 2008, 05:29 PM
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#14
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Retail sales for U.S might be very weak. Again, we might see further rebound of the euro against the usd. However, might also see a drop in demand when crude oil inventory is released later at 10:30 pm.
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Aug 13 2008, 06:20 PM
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#15
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QUOTE(billytong @ Aug 13 2008, 03:06 AM) I think the Retail sales which is use to be USD supportive will print lower than expected and that will send some market shock. However due to low amount of euro buyers. It will not be surprise if we see another "A" shape spike again. I did my research, and i don't think the retail sales will come better than expected. Wal Mart Comps was the first indictation that the rebates were used up mostly for gas. As national gas was at 4.00 average, it was acting as a tax on disposable income. Hence the stimulus rebate and gasoline prices cancel each other out. However, i think the rebound of the euro will be limited to how rapidly the French and German economy is declining. |
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Aug 13 2008, 06:35 PM
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#16
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QUOTE(billytong @ Aug 13 2008, 03:31 AM) As far as I like hugging the dollar now, but at this rapid Appreciation is very unwelcome. IMO USA is not out of wood yet, with more banks bailing out I cant see any reason to Call a total dollar bull yet. Everytime I short scalping EU this low this thing come into my mind, it gets more nervous to hold shorts at this low. If i am to do a trade today, i probably will short the euro. |
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Aug 13 2008, 07:04 PM
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#17
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Shorted the euro using my practice account, USD1,000,000. So far so good.. paper profit.. LOL
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Aug 13 2008, 07:27 PM
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#18
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Aug 13 2008, 08:25 PM
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#19
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QUOTE(wodenus @ Aug 13 2008, 04:48 AM) your drawdown can reach $7K, and you can hold for months... that means you need capital for rollover and drawdown. If you had a $3000 account it would be dead by now If futures are very easy, then you would have made a lot of money and won't touch forex either. Added on August 13, 2008, 7:58 pm Haven't seen futures for ages...at least they're regulated. Forex CFD is unregulated, the can pull all sorts of stunts and it's very illiquid. Stops are regularly hunted by large players looking to remove competition. Futures is regulated, they have central clearing houses (CBOT etc.) so the price of corn is the same no matter which broker you go to. Every played in a market where the price depended on the broker ? futures must be pretty easy, there are no such things as 500-pip spreads, sudden large spikes in the other direction (of course the broker will claim it's genuine, but it was a server glitch.) Yup you can lose a lot of money because of a server glitch. Life must be easy in futures. |
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Aug 13 2008, 08:37 PM
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#20
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the key operative word here is "looked". You cannot say the specific instrument is an easy trade to make money until you really do.
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