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 Forex Trading Corver V3, How's Your Pips Lately? ^_^

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AdamG1981
post Aug 12 2008, 02:22 PM

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Euro to fall below 1.48 tonight. That's for sure. smile.gif
AdamG1981
post Aug 12 2008, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Aug 11 2008, 11:33 PM)
you're sure about that?
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Yes, French and German GDP will disappoint and contract more than suspected.


Added on August 12, 2008, 2:37 pmHere's how i look at it, if everyone's going into a recession; it's always best to buy the dollar since the dollar has never defaulted.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 12 2008, 02:37 PM
AdamG1981
post Aug 12 2008, 02:58 PM

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Simple logic, there were signs that the euro zone cannot take any more interest hike. Trichet said, okay let's have one more to contain inflation. What he did not expect was that the oil price would have come down despite the fact of everyone's favorite, long oil, short dollar. There was signs of demand destruction for oil but ECB chose to ignore it.

Now, everyone's getting out of euro positions to purchase us equities because us equites was first to reflect the pending recession. Within 2 weeks, you will see euro fall to 1.45. There's no fundamental change in the US economy but the fact the euro zone is going into a deep recession will pressure traders to buy dollar and us equities.

Just my 2 cents.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 12 2008, 03:01 PM
AdamG1981
post Aug 12 2008, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 12:04 AM)
i think he did it on purpose......strong euro is not very good for the economy

overall trend is down.....but i think now is retracement time.....the euro has been dropping so long.....currency drop too fast also not a good sign
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Yes, the sharp decline is unexpected, but this is the very first test of euro zone economy and for the ECB. Now the ECB's credibility is being analyzed and scrutinized by traders. Any hint that ECB will decrease IR will cause the euro to drop like a rock.


AdamG1981
post Aug 12 2008, 03:11 PM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 12:08 AM)
i dont think he will drop rate.......they will let the euro drop naturally
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Well, he will get a nasty surprise on the French, German GDP tomorrow. smile.gif

AdamG1981
post Aug 12 2008, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 12:13 AM)
agree with you......

thats why i dun like counter trend trade anymore....to scary


Added on August 12, 2008, 3:15 pm

drop rate or not its not ganna affect tomolo GDP result
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Yes, that's why he will see if tomorrow's GDP numbers. Obviously he's facing two headwinds, both higher inflation and a slower economy. But which is more important? Combating inflation or recession?

The ECB has always been hawkish in combating inflation, they only have a single mandate. Now if the GDP numbers disappoint, they have to rethink and this is why traders are dumping euros now. The signs are clear, german confidence has been going down and germany's exports is decreasing at a rapid rate. If he decides to stick 4.25% the next meeting, he's a dumbass.


Added on August 12, 2008, 3:24 pmBreaking news: ECB aims to drain liquidity from money market.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 12 2008, 03:24 PM
AdamG1981
post Aug 12 2008, 03:26 PM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 12:24 AM)
why traders dumping the euro?

i tot last time there is announcement on ECB that they r going to make euro go lower....or is it other currency im confuse with~
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Simple, the euro zone is relatively new compare to the U.S. That's why traders are getting anxious especially when politics bickering between euro countries are still prevalent.


AdamG1981
post Aug 12 2008, 03:28 PM

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Euro is going up due to ECB's decision to drain excess liquidity in the money market.


Added on August 12, 2008, 3:29 pm
QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 12:28 AM)
i mean ECB intervention
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They just did. It's on CNBC now. They are draining euro from M1 supply.



This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 12 2008, 03:29 PM
AdamG1981
post Aug 12 2008, 03:34 PM

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Might be a bigger retracement for the euro if the retail sales in the US is not convincing.


AdamG1981
post Aug 12 2008, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(billytong @ Aug 12 2008, 01:08 AM)
I would be calling the retail sales to be -ve USD.

but the tradeblance tonight would be helping USD.

so on the nut case all the time there has been near to zero buying power for euro. The bear seems to be much larger than the bulls now.

CPI of euro must be print equal or better to stop euro from sliding. Any colder print will make euro slides. As for the ECB rates. I would say ECB would hold again for the next meeting. Moving back to 4.0% will mean they are admitting their mistake for the previous rate hike. A rate cut will happen but not at this close to the last rate hike. Politician dont like to admit their mistake. 4.25% will probably for their "saving face".
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Yes, the bear is definitely more powerful than the bull in this case. The Euro currency is relatively new and has never gone an extreme test. Now the traders will pitch against the ECB, and honestly, i can say the traders will win.


AdamG1981
post Aug 12 2008, 05:24 PM

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Russia confirmed it will end millitary operations in Georgia. This means, short oil, short euro , long dollar.
AdamG1981
post Aug 13 2008, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 06:56 PM)
any fundamentalst can tell me whats the reason for Yen rise so fast n rapid?
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Basically carry trade gained after US financials are again under the microscope. The news itself gives jitters to US longs to bail out to take profit.

Again, the French and German GDP will be key today, along with US CPI.


AdamG1981
post Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 12 2008, 08:10 PM)
what about GBP....what big event cause the pound to break below 12month low
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First, we have to the see UK economy slowing further. There's no big news that might cause the GBP to fall drastically. However, if US housing can show any signs of recovery, then we might see the dollar gain against the GBP. I think most likely the French and German GDP numbers might somewhat affect the poor business sentiment in UK.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM
AdamG1981
post Aug 13 2008, 05:29 PM

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Retail sales for U.S might be very weak. Again, we might see further rebound of the euro against the usd. However, might also see a drop in demand when crude oil inventory is released later at 10:30 pm.


AdamG1981
post Aug 13 2008, 06:20 PM

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QUOTE(billytong @ Aug 13 2008, 03:06 AM)
I think the Retail sales which is use to be USD supportive will print lower than expected and that will send some market shock. However due to low amount of euro buyers. It will not be surprise if we see another "A" shape spike again.
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I did my research, and i don't think the retail sales will come better than expected. Wal Mart Comps was the first indictation that the rebates were used up mostly for gas. As national gas was at 4.00 average, it was acting as a tax on disposable income. Hence the stimulus rebate and gasoline prices cancel each other out.

However, i think the rebound of the euro will be limited to how rapidly the French and German economy is declining.


AdamG1981
post Aug 13 2008, 06:35 PM

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QUOTE(billytong @ Aug 13 2008, 03:31 AM)
As far as I like hugging the dollar now, but at this rapid Appreciation is very unwelcome. IMO USA is not out of wood yet, with more banks bailing out I cant see any reason to Call a total dollar bull yet.  Everytime I short scalping EU this low this thing come into my mind, it gets more nervous to hold shorts at this low.
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If i am to do a trade today, i probably will short the euro.
AdamG1981
post Aug 13 2008, 07:04 PM

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Shorted the euro using my practice account, USD1,000,000. So far so good.. paper profit.. LOL
AdamG1981
post Aug 13 2008, 07:27 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Aug 13 2008, 04:23 AM)
Cheap smile.gif try making money doing whole lots with $1000 or less like some sites say you can... now there's a challenge smile.gif
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Forex is not my forte, futures is.


AdamG1981
post Aug 13 2008, 08:25 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Aug 13 2008, 04:48 AM)
your drawdown can reach $7K, and you can hold for months... that means you need capital for rollover  and drawdown. If you had a $3000 account it would be dead by now smile.gif


Added on August 13, 2008, 7:58 pm

Haven't seen futures for ages...at least they're regulated. Forex CFD is unregulated, the can pull all sorts of stunts and it's very illiquid.  Stops are regularly hunted by large players looking to remove competition. Futures is regulated, they have central clearing houses (CBOT etc.) so the price of corn is the same no matter which broker you go to. Every played in a market where the price depended on the broker ? futures must be pretty easy, there are no such things as 500-pip spreads, sudden large spikes in the other direction (of course the broker will claim it's genuine, but it was a server glitch.) Yup you can lose a lot of money because of a server glitch. Life must be easy in futures.
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If futures are very easy, then you would have made a lot of money and won't touch forex either. smile.gif

AdamG1981
post Aug 13 2008, 08:37 PM

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the key operative word here is "looked". You cannot say the specific instrument is an easy trade to make money until you really do.

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