Like i said many many times, there are a lot of complex financial instruments out there. Trade it well, you make money but if you lack of patience and discipline, you will lose dearly. If a specific financial instrument is so easy, everybody would be trading it to make money.


PS: I'm predicting euro to fall to 1.45 end of this month. Just my educated guess.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 15 2008, 01:33 PM

Just shorted euro at 1.4752, hoping to buy back at 1.4739.

I'll short euro before the NY empire index print releases.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 15 2008, 03:29 PM

Anyone shorting the euros yet? Or waiting for NY print?

Won 34 pips earlier from shorting euro 1.4724. closed position way too early.

Bought euro at 1.4670, closed at 1.4680. Few secs later, it was trading at 1.4695. WTF

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 15 2008, 11:52 PM

Yes, might even close below 1.46 tonight too.

Did four trades yesterday, closed out for a total of 300 pips. Now holding on to a short position Euro 1.4665. (1 lot only).

Next week will be very exciting.

Yeap, i am only trading mini forex right now. Not ready for the big boys league yet.

We might see weakness in USD next week when Big Ben gives his talk on Friday. However, i am not surprised if oil and gold rebounds since there are talks that the new tropical storm will hit the gulf coast where all the oil refineries are.

---

Added on August 16, 2008, 2:16 pmOne thing i have learnt from technical analysis. The chart is always right in reflecting buyer/seller psychology, it's just that the user's interpretation is always in doubt.



This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 16 2008, 02:16 PM

Personally, i suggest you don't trade KLCI at all. Low volume, foreigners cashing out due to the rapid depreciation of ringgit.

Even if you bought it at a good price, you need volume to exit with profit.

---

Added on August 16, 2008, 8:36 pmMoving averages is a trend indicator, not a trading indicator since its a lagging indicator.

If the primary trend is a down trend, typically a 50 EMA and 200 EMA act as a resistance level. (vice versa)

One good strategy is when the price rallies to 50 EMA, you should short it (if the trend is confirmed a down trend) and buy back when the price has the widest gap from the 50 EMA.


Once a shorter duration EMA cuts above a 200 EMA, typically it signals the trend is reversing. However, candlestick reversal pattern is an earlier indicator compare to EMA, SMA. Personally, i use slowd, macd, rsi. Its very important to observe divergence.

Remember oscillator indicators are used for TRADING, and EMAs are mostly used for TRENDING.



This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 16 2008, 08:36 PM

Candlesticks ain going to work alone, it has to be used with other indicators to confirm pending trend reversal. I am sure you know that.

No one can predict or draw the chart as the chart is derived from price movement.

Fundamental analysis - market indicators that will support/curb dollar rally against major currencies

Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
================================================================
NAHB Housing Index 8/18 Aug. 16 16
PPI MOM% 8/19 July 1.8% 0.5%
Core PPI MOM% 8/19 July 0.2% 0.2%
PPI YOY% 8/19 July 9.2% 9.2%
Core PPI YOY% 8/19 July 3.0% 3.2%
Housing Starts ,000's 8/19 July 1066 960
Building Permits ,000's 8/19 July 1138 970
Initial Claims ,000's 8/21 Aug. 16 450 440
Cont. Claims ,000's 8/21 Aug. 9 3417 3404
Philly Fed Index 8/21 Aug. -16.3 -14.0
LEI MOM% 8/21 July -0.1% -0.2%

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 17 2008, 12:20 PM

i'm going to short AUD tonight.

I'm fairly confident as i have done some homework on the Aussie's current economic outlook. I will reconfirm using my charts later on tonight.

Fundamental wise, EU is also bearish. We have euro trade zone trade balance, which i think its going to be less thn 1.2 Billion. Both German and France exports have slowed tremendously due to a stronger euro.

More and more likely Trichet is going to admit he will reduce IR soon.

I'm still here...reading. Whats up with GU?

Thanks for the heads up

---

Added on August 18, 2008, 8:34 amLong Aussie 0.8710. Short euro position still open.

---

Added on August 18, 2008, 8:53 amClosed euro short, long aussie still


This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 18 2008, 08:53 AM

Billy,

Yes, he's probably going to come out with a strong comment hinting that he won't let the euro slide this drastic. We will see how credible this ECB is.

Yeah, all those hot, speculative money going back to USD.

LOL! We all know that Trichet doesn't know what he is doing at this point. He's suffocating two biggest EURO economies and i am not surprised if he has to eat his own words.

Whatca gonna do now ECB??

---

Added on August 18, 2008, 9:45 amPS: strong resistance at 1.4739 EU.

---

Added on August 18, 2008, 9:47 amLOL, that's why government is scared to do an intervention.



This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Aug 18 2008, 09:47 AM