QUOTE(billytong @ Aug 12 2008, 04:08 PM)
I would be calling the retail sales to be -ve USD.
but the tradeblance tonight would be helping USD.
so on the nut case all the time there has been near to zero buying power for euro. The bear seems to be much larger than the bulls now.
CPI of euro must be print equal or better to stop euro from sliding. Any colder print will make euro slides. As for the ECB rates. I would say ECB would hold again for the next meeting. Moving back to 4.0% will mean they are admitting their mistake for the previous rate hike. A rate cut will happen but not at this close to the last rate hike. Politician dont like to admit their mistake. 4.25% will probably for their "saving face".
hmm...the French and British CPI seems to be better on a MoM basis. Basically i believe everyone would have expect a higher CPI for YoY. While we wait for US's Trade Balance to come, a lower print may show lower imports as an indication of bad retails. If trade balance shows a lower, maybe can expect tomorrow's retail sales report to show lower as well. Apart from looking at the oil price, speculators are turning again towards the old bad credit market. The US gov has already announced they wont help Freddie and Fannie. but the tradeblance tonight would be helping USD.
so on the nut case all the time there has been near to zero buying power for euro. The bear seems to be much larger than the bulls now.
CPI of euro must be print equal or better to stop euro from sliding. Any colder print will make euro slides. As for the ECB rates. I would say ECB would hold again for the next meeting. Moving back to 4.0% will mean they are admitting their mistake for the previous rate hike. A rate cut will happen but not at this close to the last rate hike. Politician dont like to admit their mistake. 4.25% will probably for their "saving face".
hmm...Will it be enough to cause a bearish USD?
Aug 12 2008, 08:04 PM

Quote
0.0352sec
0.41
7 queries
GZIP Disabled