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 Forex Trading Corver V3, How's Your Pips Lately? ^_^

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small-jeff
post Aug 12 2008, 08:04 PM

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QUOTE(billytong @ Aug 12 2008, 04:08 PM)
I would be calling the retail sales to be -ve USD.

but the tradeblance tonight would be helping USD.

so on the nut case all the time there has been near to zero buying power for euro. The bear seems to be much larger than the bulls now.

CPI of euro must be print equal or better to stop euro from sliding. Any colder print will make euro slides. As for the ECB rates. I would say ECB would hold again for the next meeting. Moving back to 4.0% will mean they are admitting their mistake for the previous rate hike. A rate cut will happen but not at this close to the last rate hike. Politician dont like to admit their mistake. 4.25% will probably for their "saving face".
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hmm...the French and British CPI seems to be better on a MoM basis. Basically i believe everyone would have expect a higher CPI for YoY. While we wait for US's Trade Balance to come, a lower print may show lower imports as an indication of bad retails. If trade balance shows a lower, maybe can expect tomorrow's retail sales report to show lower as well. Apart from looking at the oil price, speculators are turning again towards the old bad credit market. The US gov has already announced they wont help Freddie and Fannie.

hmm...Will it be enough to cause a bearish USD?
small-jeff
post Aug 13 2008, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Aug 13 2008, 11:10 AM)
what about GBP....what big event cause the pound to break below 12month low
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last night's US trade balance shows more +ve, meaning that less imports. During the release, both EU and GU spent half hour going up, but regained its bearish move soon after, where EU wasnt able to reach 1.4960 (former congestion zone resistant). In addition, GBP shows a higher inflation release around that time as well. I think that's what causing the continuation of the bear. Hm...i would expect the US retails report today to be lower than expected though

@dr2k3
for GJ, like what we've talked last month, GJ is now in 5th wave
small-jeff
post Aug 13 2008, 08:15 PM

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first news already came out. Mortgage applications down -1.8%. Certainly not looking good for the USD..
small-jeff
post Aug 13 2008, 08:30 PM

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hmm...IMO, futures only looked easy for the past few month..

ooh? good results?


Added on August 13, 2008, 8:32 pmooh...Retails down, but Import prices increased

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Aug 13 2008, 08:35 PM
small-jeff
post Aug 13 2008, 08:50 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Aug 13 2008, 08:37 PM)
the key operative word here is "looked". You cannot say the specific instrument is an easy trade to make money until you really do.
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yes, to me, futures, especially commodities are never that easy to trade with. It's because the recent speculation that made it "looked" easy, especially when all eyes are on the $150 mark for crude.

QUOTE(billytong @ Aug 13 2008, 08:42 PM)
As widely expected the retail sales is red and yet the market has not given up the dollar, hence I am shorting EU @ 4925.

I think the Crude inventories will send the Crude down further and hence that is USD+
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hm...if things goes better, i think i'll wait till 9:15pm...too soon to tell EU for a bear move...
small-jeff
post Aug 14 2008, 08:08 PM

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good chance for US CPI print lower or same as forcast. Eu on a small scale shows a BO on a triangle but unable to make newer high, instead it made a lower high. good chance to further bear i guess...
small-jeff
post Aug 14 2008, 08:12 PM

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@lowyat:

wah...nice wor...gold went up...
small-jeff
post Aug 14 2008, 08:19 PM

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lowyat's broker got commodities trading...yummy biggrin.gif


Added on August 14, 2008, 8:21 pmnews news...US oil supply low.

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Aug 14 2008, 08:21 PM
small-jeff
post Aug 14 2008, 08:33 PM

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wow...0.8 CPI
small-jeff
post Aug 14 2008, 08:36 PM

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CPI double higher than forcasted, but initial jobloss lower. a small surprise..
small-jeff
post Aug 14 2008, 08:38 PM

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that was cause of the news release...but the up move seems weak though
small-jeff
post Aug 14 2008, 08:57 PM

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biggrin.gif BO = Break Out (of Resistant or Support)

hmm..lets see if the bear can continue
small-jeff
post Aug 16 2008, 01:59 PM

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the last time i posted my report, someone told me to post it in my blog and not here tongue.gif sweat.gif

haha..just jk..but anyway, normack, actually whether cstkl1 is profiting in futures or not, his comment on your trading style is rather true. IMO, may it be futures, options, forex or commodities, they're all the same. As long as it can be drawn using candlesticks, they are the same. It's all about buyers/sellers psychology. What differs them is how you do your fundamentals.

The point he said of not buying or selling at new extreams does has its points. it's something i'm doing as well. Unless there's a good confirmation that there's a continuation of trend or reversal or trend, i'll not go in. smile.gif though i do gamble (which i reminded myself not to for a zillion times), where i place my positions without confirmation, often i end up in losses. Times that i profit through gambling, i do consider myself very lucky.

anyway, just to remind myself as well sweat.gif , "trade what you see, not what you believe" biggrin.gif happy weekend guys smile.gif

@lowyat:
i'll look at it later ya, have to download chartnexus first biggrin.gif

wah, just now i looked at gold...sweet as oil. if got the cash to run with it, i'll turn to commodities too...lol.. 1H can move 200 ticks biggrin.gif anyway, drew a chart on Gold, seems like it reverse just n the 74.6 fanline and closed back at the 61.8 retracement. Dont think it'll reach the 74.6 retracement anytime soon, but since it broke through the 61.8 retracement, it can and will challenge the level again. If short, go in at below 772.64, can expect minor consolidation at 741.00. but for the time being, i think it'll go into correction mode..


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small-jeff
post Aug 16 2008, 09:34 PM

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candlesticks? hahaha..
small-jeff
post Aug 16 2008, 11:10 PM

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@lowyat:

Bout Ranhill..it's not resting at the 23.6 fanline. Though a hammer marked the bottom of the recent low, but day following piercing line failed to mark new high. Also, Friday engulfed the week's attempt to rally up.

Hm...though RSI is at the bottom 10% on daily chart, it's rather bearish on a weekly chart, seems like there's a 3 crows. I think it'll have a better chance to fall to 1.00 before rising again. IMO, do wait for better confirmation ler.. If it's gonna bull, there shouldnt be a new low on monday, and go in only if there's a new high. best at 1-2 hours before closing biggrin.gif

add: btw, 1.00 to 1.50 is a very congested area to the left of the chart... i.e. strong resistant and support, and the price has just re-entered this zone. Apr-May also shows the strong support of 1.50...

add add:
1.20 is 14.6 retracement

haiya...dont go for KLCI stocks..no good no good biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Aug 16 2008, 11:17 PM


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small-jeff
post Aug 17 2008, 01:41 AM

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QUOTE(low yat 82 @ Aug 17 2008, 01:06 AM)
hmm... so i guess to draw fan line, jus draw from d highest tops to latest low?

huhu... cannot always depends on forex... must diversified ma tongue.gif moreover stock will giv u more time to do analysis..lol
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biggrin.gif yeah, just like how you draw vertical fibo...but fan is only good when the trend has already reversed..


Added on August 17, 2008, 2:15 am@lowyat:
i checked on Ramunia just now...eventually it did go up tongue.gif my bad sad.gif

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Aug 17 2008, 02:15 AM
small-jeff
post Aug 17 2008, 10:24 PM

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got any idea on EU?? biggrin.gif
small-jeff
post Aug 18 2008, 06:24 PM

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QUOTE(woopypooky @ Aug 18 2008, 01:17 PM)
van tharp test
what type of trader you are?
http://tharptradertest.com/default.aspx?question=1
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biggrin.gif it says i'm an Independent Trader...
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


really not bad...i love theoretical ideas and abstract concepts biggrin.gif

today not much news...good scalping biggrin.gif
small-jeff
post Aug 18 2008, 08:06 PM

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hm..little bit on Malaysia's economy biggrin.gif..KLCI looks horrible...after a small correction, might probably fall to 1000.00 by Oct... sad.gif hope can get more funds in first before USD/MYR shoot like rocket
small-jeff
post Aug 19 2008, 08:14 PM

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hmmm...no doubt PPI will print lower. Somehow i found that EU might go up..hmm...

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