i agreed. but one condition, tonight it has to hit 1.4730+ first with a strong up bar. US bullish sentiments are based on temporary confidence. The bull on US is rather fragile, the smallest bad news will break this confidence. They might just prefer to put back their pension funds and etc back to oil, since it's already back relatively low. In addition, this temporary confidence will only last for a finite time. The financial market in US aint getting any better. If both US and Euro-Zone going down, we'll have to see who's going down the worst..

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Aug 20 2008, 08:03 PM

what course you going??

hm...seems like investors have shifted from buying commodities to buying stocks of oil and power companies for a longer term security. Like what happened on Thursday. Sectors like conglomerates, services, IT and transportation are seeing more confidence...unless Fed can come out with a better solution for freddie and fannie, it'll be rather choppy period.

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Added on August 22, 2008, 10:43 pm yeah...i'll prefer to trade on a bull market too...IMO, it takes too long a time for a bearish reversal. A bullish reversal (one which is successful) is always easier to spot..

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Aug 22 2008, 10:43 PM

hmm...IMO...actually fundamental is not about chasing the news or news trading. Its more about understanding the market sentiments in general, hence determining the trend.

hm...last friday's US dallor bull move was much due to the fall of oil. The latter, was of course due the pullback agreement by Russia (2nd largest oil and power producer after Saudi). However, Russian troops are still inside Georgia as an excuse for peacekeeping. With the missile defense US planned to have in Poland, it's rather worrying that Cold-War 2 will just be around the corner, with Georgia being it's start out platform.

On the market side, Russian troops would be unlikely to pullout completely from Georgie on Monday. With the pressure from NATO, France and US, crude oil price may eventually shoot back up, while USDI may continue its bear move albeit S&P, NASDAQ may see some up moves in its wholesales and oil and power sector.


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the storm is going to hit mexican gulf...watchout..and russia aint at all peace yet..

77% crude and 30%+ gas plants shutting down due to guztav. Russia just got kicked out of G8, and US sent navy ships to supply "aids".. ...oil price would by sure go up next week.

European and Japanese's flu is getting worse. The gain of importing US goods due to weakening USD may be reduced soon. August will see a higher US onsumption expenditure and lower income. Prepare another round of bearish USD. The expected (mentioned earlier) choppy USD pairs might end early next week.

Good trading guys

fxcm just started to offer their micro accounts not long ago. heard that their spreads are quite low as well...have a look

wow...what caused the sudden up move in EU?

wow, oil touched and broke lower than 110...careful tomorrow there might be more people going to fry oil again tweezer bottom at bout 109.20...let's see tomorrow can shoot up to 115...

hm..dont think the chances of US getting a second chance will be that good. For the time being, Europe financial is looking much worse than US. Though the bearish sentiments in the US market had significantly reduce, but it still doesnt mean it has turned into a bullish sentiment. Lastnight oil was dropping heavily, but at the same time, major US indices are falling bad as well. Housing prices in US should has dropped to a low limit, and that's why we see an high increase in mortgage application. However, lower fuel price though will boost consumer spendings, but due to the sudden inflation, consumer staples would still be the highest priority rather than on luxury spendings. From the recent release, US market is much on a flat surface, it's just waiting for a "Good" report to break the confidence barrier.

trichet is having a conference now? what channel?

he meant the USD bull lar..

investors are moving out of the financial equity to physical equity; they're not hedging the dollar against the commodities, but into US bonds and etc. Shown to be apparent even as oil plants in gulf still being shut down, and storm is still hitting it. No ones wanna buy US, European nor Asian stocks now...The market today is not driven by supply-and-demand anymore, it's much driven by investors' psychology...The Feds are coming out stimulus for banks lending, they have to solve this credit crunch. Comparing the situation in Europe, the housing problem in US is rather not that much..

hm..higher time frame would require much more free margin to run with...IMO, the higher the TF, the greater the risk..so for the time being, i'm sticking with 5M instead of 1h or 4h..

hows ur training course u said about?

hm...a little side note..on the left of the attachment is the EU, while on the right is UJ relative to EJ, with Yen being as the base (lazy to explain ). Seems like the Euro is falling at a much faster rate than UDS, but i would expect the gap to closer once EU hits around 1.3800.

Most US reports wouldnt make much difference now, other than those sudden spikes. Previously investors are worrying about Freddie and Fannie. Now that the gov has taken over them, it's actually much of a relief to the credit market. What's US$120+bil compared to the US$500bil being suffering in the credit market? Perhaps there would be a slight retracement today and/or tomorrow. Lets see if investors would regain its confidence in Wall Street and EU will drop to 1.3800

edit: typo

added:
The early session of the US market has seen the sell-off of the treasuries and bonds, while Europeans are buying US stocks. Expect much more movement after the last european market to close.

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Sep 8 2008, 11:34 PM


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just imagine you're a fund manager holding a few billion dollars in Switzerland, where you wanna put your money in for now to make max profit. The US or the Europe or Asia?

hm...not too much homework on the Yen, but if i'm not mistaken, though there's a more stable (compare to the world financial), it's facing greater inflation, with Nikkei still in bearish mode.

Actually, it's still about the psychology of those throwing money in the financial world. Taking over of F&F is a relief to the majorities of the consumers, including their family members who have purchasing power as well. Though the US has about 8000 banks, F&F going bankrupt is like BSN, Public or Maybank going bankrupt, which is something, even the government of Malaysia would never allow (ofcourse, Malaysia has much fewer banks). Since the US economy is run by the credit market by large, easing up on this stress is a confidence booster for those throwing money in the financial world.

Anyway, on another thing..
The UJ relative to EJ did made a closer gap last night after last european market. It's widening now...not near to make a bullish crossover.

Agree on the Yen. That's why when i compare USD to Euro, i'll use Yen as base ..

honestly i do understand your concern about the bullish USD. It has passed through much of the main support levels as EU goes down. and ofcourse, nothing will have a forever trend, a reversal will eventually come. The next identifiable support will come at around 1.3800 (struggled high during mid 1995), which would also be around end of this week. I would expect a much sideways, if not reversal. People always remember the high, less on the low .. In addition to F&F, another thing to note (which i think it's important) is the lowered mortgage rate, from 6+% to 5+%, without touching on the interest rate. Economically, it's really a booster.

Yeah, unemployment rate would be the next concern, as it will affects spending, hence the stock, hindering investors to come in. The effect of unemployment would kick in later in the month, when their savings (if they had any) are running dry, and showing a slow move on the market chain. but on that point, the US gov was reported to come out with a plan ASAP (heard on bloomberg radio, cant recall the exact plan though). If the US gov still unable to come out with a solid plan by next month, with the MoM unemployment shows continuous rising, the fragile confidence will again to be broken. Perhaps then, Latin or even UAE will be a better place to look at

The day when McDonald raised its pricing on its Value Meals, it will be the time BNM will change the interest rate