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 GPacket, plain discussion

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wirelessdude
post Jun 1 2009, 10:10 PM

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1. How does Wimax compare with 3G? If you think 3G is good, well, Wimax is actually 4G - it's like wireless ADSL.

2. How does Wimax compare with Wifi? Wimax has bigger coverage, faster and more stable. It also supports VOIP, which will be bundled by GPacket by the end of the year.

3. How does Wimax compare with Streamyx? It's wireless, which means you can be mobile - surf in a bus, etc. This also means you can roam, i.e. surf anywhere in Malaysia with Wimax coverage, and not just from your home.

4. GPacket is not only in the business of providing Wimax in Malaysia. It's also an "enabler" for Wimax services overseas. They've also spent a lot on R&D for Wimax CPEs (dongle, wireless base stations, etc) which they'll sell overseas. GPacket also has wireless solutions (e.g. for 3G) that is sold to telcos all over the world.

5. "...interest from debt". I'm interested to know where you got this info from. Because AFAIK, GPacket is in net cash position and the base stations were built from internal funds. Even their building at Jalan Templer was bought cash.

6. Did you know that P1 is used as a case study by Intel, etc. at Wimax conferences overseas? Because it's currently the most successful commercial Wimax service in the world.
cherroy
post Jun 1 2009, 11:24 PM

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QUOTE(wirelessdude @ Jun 1 2009, 10:10 PM)
1. How does Wimax compare with 3G? If you think 3G is good, well, Wimax is actually 4G - it's like wireless ADSL.

2. How does Wimax compare with Wifi? Wimax has bigger coverage, faster and more stable. It also supports VOIP, which will be bundled by GPacket by the end of the year.

3. How does Wimax compare with Streamyx? It's wireless, which means you can be mobile - surf in a bus, etc. This also means you can roam, i.e. surf anywhere in Malaysia with Wimax coverage, and not just from your home.

4. GPacket is not only in the business of providing Wimax in Malaysia. It's also an "enabler" for Wimax services overseas. They've also spent a lot on R&D for Wimax CPEs (dongle, wireless base stations, etc) which they'll sell overseas. GPacket also has wireless solutions (e.g. for 3G) that is sold to telcos all over the world.

5. "...interest from debt". I'm interested to know where you got this info from. Because AFAIK, GPacket is in net cash position and the base stations were built from internal funds. Even their building at Jalan Templer was bought cash.

6. Did you know that P1 is used as a case study by Intel, etc. at Wimax conferences overseas? Because it's currently the most successful commercial Wimax service in the world.
*
In stock market perspective wise, investors are looking for how fast it can balance its book aka turn the Wimax service into a highly profitability business.

There is a research show that they need at least 200K + subscribers to balance their book, currently they managed to sign up around 30K+ under heavy promotion across the countries.

Currently market concern is they are burning cash fast with need lot of initial capital on infrastructure, but profitability wise they need 200K subscribers, which is not easy task.

Basically, stock market care about future profitability of the company and cashflow. Even they are the most successful company in the world to roll over Wimax service but cannot turn the business into highly proftaibility wise, stock market won't like it.
So market will like it if their financial report turning fast and cashflow position improving.

wirelessdude
post Jun 1 2009, 11:39 PM

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According to Gpacket's CEO in an interview in one of the mags, they're on target to achieve 200,000 subscribers by years-end. The latest report also shows that revenue has increased because of subscriber growth, but loss has also widen because of the base stations that are being built, naturally.

These are 3 more things that I like about Gpacket:

1. The bulk of their cost is upfront, so while you can expect losses now, they will start to show profit once they're completed rolling out the base stations.

2. Intel will start building Wimax chips into laptops and PDAs by years-end or next year - that's when you'll see real subscriber growth.

3. Gpacket is expected to list P1.

Of course you can wait to play it safe, but it'll definitely not be at the current price level anymore. wink.gif
cherroy
post Jun 2 2009, 12:02 AM

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QUOTE(wirelessdude @ Jun 1 2009, 11:39 PM)
According to Gpacket's CEO in an interview in one of the mags, they're on target to achieve 200,000 subscribers by years-end. The latest report also shows that revenue has increased because of subscriber growth, but loss has also widen because of the base stations that are being built, naturally.

These are 3 more things that I like about Gpacket:

1. The bulk of their cost is upfront, so while you can expect losses now, they will start to show profit once they're completed rolling out the base stations.

2. Intel will start building Wimax chips into laptops and PDAs by years-end or next year - that's when you'll see real subscriber growth.

3. Gpacket is expected to list P1.

Of course you can wait to play it safe, but it'll definitely not be at the current price level anymore. wink.gif
*
The problem is that I think it is way too optimistic to see subscribers base shoot up from 30K to 200K within this year. If there is no broadband penetration right now, yes, that's for sure achievable. But bulk of people having streamyx and 3G connection currently. So basically they need to convince people to ditch their existing subscription or having a second/another broadband service.

Streamyx has now many subsribers currently? should be around 1 milllion+ after being pioneer in broadband whom tapped the untapped market and with readiness of last miles connection across the countries.

Basically people want affordable, reliable, high speed broadband, be it 3G, streamyx, 4G, 5G etc. Technology wise is only the one dictate how people would like it, it is the aforementioned factors the dictate how people response to it.

Don't mean it is unachievable but not easy task.

1. There are still lot of maintenance cost as well. Profit will only come in if there are large enough subscribers. If a base station cost 5 million, and usable for 5 years, depreciation will eat up the profit of 5 million but it is spreading 1 million each year.
It is the cashflow of 5 million gone.

2. Don't know got this kind of plan, so pardon me on this. But if it is, then positive for Wimax service providers.

3. Mainly because of cashflow issue, if not they won't intend to list it as it just means lesser P1 revenue can be booked into Gpacket financial book as you can't hold possibly more than 75% stake for a listing company.

If P1 is having good future and profitability, I would take directly P1 instead of Gpacket.

My view only.
Joe2009
post Jun 2 2009, 12:29 AM

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After split
GP will see green balance sheet due to he carry a lot contracts at oversea. Also, GP will become the main supplier for P1 as well

P1 will continue suffer a huge loss since P1 is only target on Malaysia market currently. Also, P1 do not have diversify business.

Split is good for GP not P1 in next few years until P1 finished build all the stations around Malaysia.
wirelessdude
post Jun 2 2009, 01:00 AM

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Cherroy, the reason for the split is not because of cashflow issues. They can always use their pile of cash or raise through rights issues like recently announced.

The main reason is because of conflicts of interest, e.g. P1 competes with Maxis's 3G, but Maxis is a customer of Gpacket too.
yeehs18
post Jun 8 2009, 11:47 AM

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I personally think a long term investment into GPacket is not wise right now seeing a lot of fundamentals issue right now which has yet to be improved.

First of all, from market news. GPacket is burning cash huge and seeing red since last year. Whether this can be turned around is still on paper target only. With recession moving deeper, more red is expected to be seen. The Greatest Depression will begin in September in US. There might be buying opportunity during the mess but not right now.

Secondly, the service of the Wimax is absolute frustration. Check the Network section in this forum and you will see complains unattended by customer service. Login failure. Bad coverage. Downtime. Slow speeed. Lagging until impossible to play online games or HD streaming (High Latency). They really need to improve their routing. Only casual browsing and mails checking. Feel like another TMnuts but in wireless or even worse. They expand fast but infrastructure is not catching up. It is showing sign of oversell and unable to handle current capacity. If you can't convince people to ditch their current and move to WIMAX then I see no future in this. It just a another service to tap into the non-hardcore user which need mobility. If the GP cant improve their core selling product with competitive pricing for general public then I see no future. Current price is still high.

Besides that, one must also look into the darker side of business in Malaysia. When GP got the WIMAX license through special means, thus door opened for some big guns in the government. How many money flowing is below the table?
Joe2009
post Jun 8 2009, 07:57 PM

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All good share will start from worst. from worst then only you can buy a cheap good share for future.

GP look like make a come back again today. May be due to they going to issue right and try to push the share as high as possible.

Broadband is the most stable technology, but do you know the first broadband technology was used in 1940 for military purpose in world war 2.

Wimax is new technology, faster in world. The coverage is continue to grow at every where. Which the equipments technology today, we no need to wait 60years to make it stable. GP got contract at china and Taiwan. the market is very big, at Malaysia it may just a head quarter. Do you think Malaysia is big enough and the spending power is very strong? Average monthly income USD15000/person at Malaysia but USD58000/person at Singapore. We are actually very poor.
alfredfx
post Jun 11 2009, 01:32 AM

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look at KLTEC Index

Green packet is the top 3 heavy weight after MPI and UNISEM

seems to me a breakout in progress.
moorish
post Jun 11 2009, 05:51 PM

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Congrat to those holding Gpacket rclxms.gif thumbup.gif
Joe2009
post Jun 11 2009, 08:00 PM

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i sold 1.00 before in past 4 weeks ago. still hold 130lots 0.82 bought aweek after i sold 1.00, bought too early and put too much money at the same time.
however no plan to sell it yet. smile.gif
IGax2000
post Jun 11 2009, 09:24 PM

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lots of volume come to supportin this few days, Gpacket might continue its good run.....
who knows!! icon_rolleyes.gif
SEIKO^WATCHES
post Jun 12 2009, 04:10 PM

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i jz bought 150lot, Gpacket uptrend now...

prepare ur pocket to collect money

rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
Morisato
post Jun 22 2009, 05:54 PM

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since today price 0.705..is still worth to purchase some???i means for short runs ( keep for 3 week)
Joe2009
post Jun 22 2009, 06:59 PM

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haha, die kao kao today, suffered RM5K in single day. sold all shares on hand and convert into phama and medicine related share except GP.
omione
post Jun 22 2009, 09:43 PM

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Gpacket is losing money all the way. Why are investors still pushing it share price up? Can someone offer a logical explanation?
wirelessdude
post Jun 22 2009, 09:48 PM

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They're losing money because of high capex from building base stations. This type of business, the main bulk of the expenditure is at the initial stage. Once they finished building, they'll have wide coverage and hence more subscribers.

By next year, Intel will be building WiMAX modems into laptops, PDAs and smartphones - that's when it'll really take off. Gpacket also has plans to spin-off P1 in 2~3 years time so it's a good long-term play if you can pick up at RM0.60+.
sjz
post Jun 22 2009, 11:54 PM

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But I heard some rumor saying P1 will be seperated from GPACKET in a very near future.. smile.gif
wirelessdude
post Jun 23 2009, 12:06 AM

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QUOTE(sjz @ Jun 22 2009, 11:54 PM)
But I heard some rumor saying P1 will be seperated from GPACKET in a very near future.. smile.gif
*
Emm... that's what I said above - GPacket plans to spin-off P1 in 2~3 years.
sjz
post Jun 23 2009, 12:28 AM

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so after that what's their main source of income?
i think P1 having quite some portion of GPACKET income in future although now expanding coverage area might cost a lot.

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