Me, one of them since last year or so. Hehe.
But surely not USD lah.

I am not betting anything, as I don't trade forex, just got some portion of FD in AUD and NZD as part of diversification, like you said hedge against RM depreciation while getting 7-8% interest on it.

Market talk recently is about Fed is putting on word on controlling inflation only, tough talk want to control inflation, blar, blar, but actually policy won't for near term. Might be wrong or correct, only after next week Fed meeting only knows.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 17 2008, 11:50 AM

Market already knew RBNZ will cut its interest rate soon or later because too high borrowing cost, 8.25% currently has start to cripple its economy.

NZD already plunged from 0.82 (with USD) to now around 0.75. For RM sense, it has drop from high end of 2.5x to now 2.45. NZD is one of industrial country that will potentially first to cut the interest rate while others may go up. So NZD is bearish at the moment.

The one which is one of the most bullish at the moment is AUD.

It didn't surprise when they act differently when thing actually occur at their side.

Some sort like adult or parents always tell their kids smoking is bad for you, not good for your health, waste money and scold heavily when they see their kids smoking etc.
But the parents themselves smoke 2 packet per day.

I think this scenario explain the myth already. Haha.



This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 17 2008, 03:37 PM

Parliment has 222 seats so in order to form a gov with simple majority, 111 seats above are needed by anyone.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 18 2008, 03:09 PM

Holding 2/3 means that they can change the constuition and passing the law as they wish, don't need to care about opposition parties.

A simple majority already can form the gov and cabinet to run the gov. As long as your MPs more than 51% are loyal, then it is deem a majority vote gov already in the Parliment, it can be a strong gov as well. Just they can't change whatever consituition law by they wish, need opposition party to vote in order to get pass and make it into law.

OT a bit already.

Simple, buy the one that is cheaper.

Pbbank & Pbbank-O1 are the same shares, same entitlement and right, only difference is on the eye of foreigners. In the eye of Malaysian, both are the same. Theorectically over the long term, Pbbank-O1 should have more value because of the 30% limit. Short term wise, if foreigners want to 'cabut' -O1 can trade some discount to local one but it would be short term effect (can last for year or years, based on 1998 experience) as if O1 is much cheaper than local, it makes no sense to buy the local one.

Pbbank-O1 can be converted to Pbbank and vice versa also.
If Pbbank-O1 doesn't exceed the 30% limit, foreigners can buy Pbbank which then convert to Pbbank-O1 (until reach 30% limit). On the other hand, Malaysian can buy Pbbank-O1 then convert to Pbbank.

I did it a few time back during financial crisis time, because Pbbank-O1 (last time called Pbbank-F) was always about few ten cents cheaper than the local one. So buy Pbbank-O1 then take the shares to register, come back as Pbbank-local already.

But since CDS being implemented, I haven't done it because there is no or only have little price differentiate, so I don't know how to they implement on this registration issue. Convert straight away or what? I don't know.
So have to check with them if really want to make the conversion between.

Just some of my previous experience but I don't know current situation, so I bare no responsibility on above statement if situation not the same.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 19 2008, 11:03 AM

We are 'buying' vegetable' group mah, stingy one. 5 or 10 cents also want to 'kira' one.

Thanks for the information.

Mainly because there is no opportunity being present. You need O1 is significant cheaper like more than 50 cents, then only have some 'meat'.
But conversion take time, so there are some risk also. But if one origin wish to buy the Pbbank want, then no harm done.

Still long time to go (2 years) even if it will happen.

See, in this 2 years time, KLCI from 800-900 goes to 1,500 before plunging back to now 1,200 level. Anything can happen.

So if someone tells back 2 years ago, KLCI will plunge 30% during 2008, he/she also get it right. But he/she will not buy stocks during 800 points time.

Same goes to Genting case, someone 2 years ago said Genting share will plunge 40% during 2008, yup, get it right again, from 8.++ to 5.xx (around 40%). Very good prediction. But Genting shares was around Rm 4 only nia 2 years back (around RM20+ before 1: 5 split). So he/she won't buy at RM4, because the prediction so accurate on 40% plunge.

Even sell now, also can register hefty profit.

Haha.

Don't get me wrong, I am saying market will be bullish or bearish or anything. Just somehow need to look at different perspective sometimes.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 20 2008, 10:21 AM

Japan is on the earth fault line, so occassionally earthquake happens won't be surprise. Any prediciton on earthquake will happen on Japan can easily hit accurately.

But it predicts July ler and 30 metres Tsunami is rare.

In term of scientific, if average temperature of the earth is 59 degree celcius (2015), as in the prediction, then human being will be extinct already.
FYI, a merely 3-5 degree change can be a big deal already for the earth environement. A 5 degree of more drop can cause an ice age to occur. A 30 degree + surge will result in extinction and change the face of the earth already.

No offence.
Just have free time around today.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 20 2008, 10:54 AM

What to expect if CEO of the company itself also disposing its shares signficantly.

Everyone has the right to dispose share or acquire share in the free market. Company management still run as usual, so nothing shareholders can comment nor complain about it unless it involves company business operation. It is a separate issue

Company share price issue, or shareholding has nothing to do with company businesses. Unless FF or substantial shareholders want to vote out the CEO, then another story.

FKLI is discounting more than 23 points currently. Something not right.

It is not normal for FKLI to discount 20+ points to the cash market unless something big bearish factor in few days time. Bare in mind, June contract only has 6 days to run only aka for those shorting one, cash market need to drop more than 20+ points in order to make money. Even a flat market, those short at current level will be burning money already.

Only 2 possibility I can think of:

May be it is those long position people cut loss after breaching some technical support level or they knew something we don't know.

Edited, FKLI recover, seems like cut loss position is the reason. Oppotunities.

AdamG1981,

You cover your short position quite well this time.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 20 2008, 03:42 PM

For the buy back, you know what something people doesn't notice is that those buyback programme are making shareholders losing money (on paper) at the moment.

For example, RR is buying back its shares constantly from the market since 3.50 or so. Now share price is only 2.80, so company had bought 'expensive' shares already and if those treasury shares being sold, company actually making a loss, (I knew it won't be sold as it is not the treasury share purposes, instead company will opt to write it off).
So it is much better company use the cash pile as a dividend and rewards the shareholders as cash.

If I attend AGM, I will ask this kind of question. If company need cash pile for future expansion, then fine, but I am the one against share buyback programme, it doesn't reward the shareholders very much. As those cash still being kept in the company, and shareholders don't benefit much from it. Still got lah, as EPS will be higher due to lesser outstanding shares, just dividend is much simple and rewarding.

Share buyback has nothing to do with privatisation as those shares are treasury shares which is belonged to the company itself, not substantial shareholders nor any shareholders.

Privatisation normally is substantial shareholders buy from the market and eventually take it private as getting 100% of the company shares(privatisation).

I knew, I was comparing with the usage of company cash pile to buyback or give as dividend. Both are good to be happening. Just comparing pros and cons.

If company uses the cash pile as dividend it would have better support (on share price) than buyback programme. As seen by those generous high dividend stocks, they hardly drop much, but buyback programme one can't fight the market force.

The more famous of disadvatange of buyback has happened lately. Banks in US prior before subprime meltdown are mostly implement buyback across. There is one bank buyback significantly when its share was around 50-60, but now only around 20. But company with recent turmoil and captial strapped, then decide to issue new share at 30 in order to raise fresh capital. Then those cash pile using on buyback is actually evaporating. If those cash pile instead of buyback, then give it as cash to shareholders, shareholders at least have those cash in hand, won't suffer the losses as much.

Mostly company in KLSE only kept the treasury share, mostly don't cancel it. A few sell it back to market after gaining.

For (1), it less likely happen in KLSE because mostly major shareholders already hold significant stake, free float share not more than 30-40%.

For (2), I assume the preserve company valuation mean supporting the share price, right?
But market already shows us, generous dividend stock share price is more well supported than those buyback one because of market force.

For the like R company buyback at 3.50, shareholders indrectly are buying at 3.50 also. Just like YTL related shares, they are buyback their own shares, eventually afterwards, distributed the treasury share back to the shareholders (free). Why need to make a big circle then, why not straight away give the cash as dividend? This really puzzling me. Don't get me wrong, it is good thing to happen also.

I don't understand the share buyback can be used to do acquisition project issue. Mind to share.

Don't get me wrong, buyback is also a good thing to happen.
Just I don't fancy company keep the cash forever in the company without rewarding shareholders much with only peanut dividend while company profit is hefty (not zero lah) if company find no usage of cash pile they have. If company need the cash for future expansion for further and future profit incremental then need to give peanut dividend, then I have no problem with it.
But if company generating huge profit then find no usage on cash pile generated years after years but reluctantly rewarding the shareholders, only go through buyback programme, but don't cancel the treasury shares hold, I don't see it is very fair to shareholders already.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 20 2008, 10:03 PM

1) cash already outflow as pointed out by keith_hjinhoh, as company need to pay for the shares purchased in the open market.

2) There are less shares in market so privatisation is much easier, quite correct. But Genting needs to use its cashflow to privatise Resort. Unless it is through reverse take over.

OK, I get it, that's on newly issue shares or use treasury share as collateral for acquiring cost.

It will be benefitting if those buyback shares are being acquired at low side.

On my given example on US banks side. Those buyback share are burning the company cash instead benefitting.