Then you must be a Japanese gals.
Konnichiwa

That's good.

Those honey moon period ended liao..

Need to wait longer for it to be back. But having said that bear market generally shorter than bull market, but still sometimes it can take as long as 1-3 years before the bull emerge back. It is part of economy cycle in nature.

Most probably market react to this news.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...56&sec=business

For PE discussion side, I would like to add on something. (which I had post once sometimes back)

Since inflation situation has worsen and economy high probably will slowdown significantly. Using PE to judge a stock, can be a trap as well. Some counters do trade at low PE like 8x or 10x, because market doesn't believe those company earning is going to be sustained as previously, aka market expect their earning going to drop in the future, that's why those share price reluctantly to go up.

Eg. as PER is using past year EPS to compute, let say a company's EPS last year is 10 cents, but its share trade at 1.00, so by right at PER 10x, it looks attractive and cheap but due to the fact economy slowdown will hurt the company future earning let say next year it only manages to earn 5 cents only. Then current price of 1.00 become a PER 20x already which become totally not attractive at all at the same price of 1.00

So this is why some counters being traded at low PER. Market doesn't necessary right on every stocks, so if company future earning does show good result which is not as same as market expected of going down. Then share price will react to the positively to upside.

But a lot of times, market is efficient enough and most of the time get it correct (Not all, market does get it wrong sometimes), typically eg. would be financial stocks in US. Previously, all were trading at 6x or 7x only, (like Citigorup was at USD 40-50), which by right is very very cheap, but market get it right, even at 6x or 7x, they are still bloody expensive and look at where those financial stocks now. No PE at all (because making tonnes of losses). FYI Citigroup now is less than USD20.

So of purely look at PE alone, then one would buy at USD50, 40, 30. But won't buy at USD 20 because now has no PER already. Just joking.

Don't get me wrong, PER still a good way to judge a stock which is one of the basic fundmantal of stock investing. Just to remind people of potential PE trap (because PE figure is backward looking), as overall picture especially future of company is the main consideration of the stock market (as stock market is forward looking).

So using data and figure with due diligence. Don't rely a single data for any judgement, look at overall picture to justify so that view is much wider and potential being more accurate.

Just my 2 cents.

A mixed bag result.

Retail sales is much better than expected but jobless claim creeping higher.

For the next few month as there is a stimulus package by the US gov (giving some pay cheque for tax rebate or something), so retail sales might stay on high as long as consumers has the money to pay for it.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 12 2008, 08:51 PM

It is more due to tax rebate under the US gov stimulus package. So people got extra money to spend.

Real growth aka GDP growth is measured after deducting the inflation.

Nominal growth - inflation rate = GDP growth.

So those published GDP growth is already taking account of inflation.
But having said that, inflation figure is open for debatable as we knew actual inflation rate is not as low as official rate due to the fact of method computation.

But retail sales is not, if not mistaken. So inflation can distort the sales numbers.

Central banks is independant from gov or politic. They don't receive order from gov, they made their decision based on their financial intelligent although they are appointed by the gov. They have their mandate to do which normally is to govern economy growth and controlling inflation through moeny supply. FYI ECB only has one mandate aka controlling inflation.
Fed and ECB are the 2 leading example of independant decision making.

But having said that, central banks in other countries esepcially those smaller one or less transparent one, more and less being influenced by gov policy, as we knew world is not perfect.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 13 2008, 09:07 AM

Even its volume is 300K, but it calculated the amount of money, it is Rm 300K nia. So nothing to be "wow' about actually. 1K lot of Genting volume already worth more than the its total volume already.

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Added on June 13, 2008, 4:23 pmYup, if 300k shares then need to be alert. Just like Gamuda case.

If few ten lots, never mind.

But still if they don't add on new ship then I would worry about the company revenue in the future, after recently sold some of their old fleet.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 13 2008, 04:23 PM

I understand it, but with reducing fleet will only mean lower revenue or sales for the futures which won't be good for future profitability. This can't be a long term solution or for long term company growth prospect.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 13 2008, 04:38 PM

No, but it is one of the stock in my 'favourite page'.

No exactly. Reit earning is depended on tenants of the properties. So Stareit earning is depended on Lot 10, JW Marriot Hotel and Starhill tenants. Although YTL is a major shareholder of it and is under YTL group, its earning is not through YTL group business, except/unless YTL group company rent the properties typical eg. would be AMfirst whereby AMbank group is its major tenants. Then for AMfirst, it can say AMfirst's earning is highly depended on AMbank group.

Buying Reit is not as same as buying company share, it has some differences compared to normal shares. So please don't treat it as same as normal share, one will be disappointed if treat it as normal shares. Upside potential is not as much as normal shares unless market goes crazy and bubbling.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 13 2008, 09:11 PM

Amfirst is the one I am mostly aware of conflict of interest between its reit and major shareholder. Still I had bought some in it.

But for Stareit, I don't know YTL tenant contribute as much as 50%, thanks for highlighting anyway.

Still I opt for Reit for its yield, instead putting in FD that yield 3.xx%.

As long as those tenants lease is more than 3 years and above, that's mean in this 3 years I can expect the yield to materialise. The one I mostly prefer is Axis reit. Between reit I got, Axis reit is the one I have the most. They are the most diversify and having 13+ properties range from office to industrial.

Instead buying properties and rent it out, I prefer reit which is less hassle which is the primary reason I go for reit. Sometimes I treat them as FD only.

Just my opinion and preferences, doesn't necessary right nor guarantee to make money.

Kinda somehow agree on it. Calculated risk doesn't mean will guarantee make money as well. Transmile is one of the typical example.

Nobody is god in investment, just they have more success story than failed story that make them successful. It is impossible to have every single investment that is making money, just one make more than loss then it is considered mission accomplished.

Invest into a particular share is because you are confidence about the company future, but not because whether it is ABC family or XYZ person that owned it, although it has some factors in it for good management team, just one starts with core consideration is the company management manage to deliver the result.

Diversified has its good and bad.

One thing good about reit price currently is that they are trading at mostly 10-15% discount over its NAV as anticipated property sector bearish time ahead, as well as potential higher interest rate in the future which I highly doubt FD rate will go higher or go higher as much.

The more discount to their NAV, the more protection on its downside. As long as those property is in strategic location, the property value is there which won't evaporise like those PN17 company.
In fact strategic location property value with good demand only will rise due to inflation in the longer term future.

The good thing of having consistent dividend stock (including reit) is that after 10 years+ or so, basically one has recoup all its initial investment. Even company goes broke, you basicially lose the opportunity cost (FD interest). So after 10 years+, those left over on the share price or future dividend yield is your net return already, just how much as compared to FD interest only.

That's just my personal view which I feel comfortable in investing in dividend stocks which has good consistent result of dividend based on their core business profit. That's also I find difficult to convince myself in investing in the stock like Airasia (highly growth stock that give zero dividend) although I am attracted by its penny stock (0.88).

GSC is just a tiny bit or small peanut for PPB group. Instead I view them running those cinema for 'fun' only. Haha.

I personally don't like college business though, too unpredictable.

I prefer to buy SPB (SPB wholly owned Help before it is listed). I got SPB at Rm2.xx before this round of bull run started (2006-2007) but sold off at 3.xx level already at several stage. It did go as high as near to 5.00.
Some sort of profit lock strategy prompt me to sell.

No doubt about property has hit its peak for near term. Reit price with mostly trade at discount to its NAV is also the sign market also believe property has hit its peak.

Any investment that potential give a return rate higher than FD carry the risk, this is basic of 'investment game', so does Reit. As long as one can afford the risk and fully aware of it, the it is the risk and reward game. I don't mean Reit is a sure good place to invest nor I put significantly high position bet on it, just for me, it is part of diversification to look for yield which is much much better than those potato chips in the market.

Especially for the market like KLSE, there is not many stocks can be choosed from. One think good about Reit is they have and will give 90% of the earning to the shareholders. So fraud accounting like Transmile chance is minimised, as those 'reveiables' can't be 'played' around as distribution need cashflow. For cashflow, either you have it or not. There is no in between.

In the case if economy situation deteoriate going into recession, I can 90% say of one thing, all shares including good one also will go down to the hill, just the degree of more and less only, no one will spare from it.

But still one can't have 90-100% in cash position even one pessimistic about the market, as no one can be sure market or economy behave as people or one predicted. Even share price goes down, if those blue chips with strong fundamental continue to earn consistently dividend for you (might be lesser in economy bad time but still comparable to FD rate), still it can weather the storm and hope for better days ahead.
But for those potato chips, those 'sampan' might sink into the sea bottom in the storm, as seen by a handful of listed company goes burst, delisted, massive capital reduction etc.

That's where calculated risk implied with diversification of asset, at least for my personal preferences.

Just my 2 cents.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 14 2008, 10:38 AM

Actually I don't like the term of core inflation.

Consumer pay in full cash for headline inflation, who care about core inflation is low. If headline inflation is serious then consumer face serious price increase even if core inflation is zero.

Core inflation strip out energy and foods price which is the essential part of daily life expenditure!
They strip out because they see those energy and foods price is volatile, so they 'create' another term of core inflation.

So core inflation is not a good picture to look at or represent the actual situation as we knews foods price has been one of the serious inflation factor, but Fed only concern about core inflation.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 14 2008, 03:44 PM

I share your taught, yes, food and energy cost won't impact the US consumer too greatly as compared to Malaysian. But apparels are included in core inflaton figure but isn't it apparels cost is even lower or smaller portion than foods and energy?

The main discussion is why Fed totally ignore the headline inflation all together. Even it consists of 10-20% of consumer spending, still consumers need to pay for the extra cost of it.

I fully agree high oil price has significant portion of speculation factor, with more and more pension fund and mutual fund buying oil futures as part of their portfolio, it drives oil price even higher, which also part of reason why oil price reluctantly to go down and make worse the situation. They create artificial demand for oil.

Market has said oil price is not sustainable since USD 60-80 level, but still it goes up to USD 135 level because of people want to hedge against inflation by buying commodities futures while in the process making inflation situation worsen, kind of funny, right?

Even it is not sustainable as mostly agree, damage is done on the like on Malaysian consumer side. For sure, Malaysia will face a tough time ahead.

Cheers.

Money has to park into somewhere, right? Either you keep the as cash in bank or buy gov bonds only. Stock, properties are totally out of equation.

Currently, there is not much place for them to park the money or place that can absorb trillions of money while still be 'safe'. That's why US has nation interest of being super power in the world. If US is not a super power, then USD or US treasuries won't be as attractive for other gov to invest into it as current situation.

It might already suffer like Asian currencies during 1997 crisis already because of massive trade deficit every year, and keep on growing.

US treasuris is classified as one of the safest investment in the world even in the period of war time, unless gov default which very very unlikely. If it does, whole world financial market might collapse already, so stil they are one of the safest investment that provide yield return. (Gold is also safe but it doesn't provide yield return).

If China gov want to keep those surplus into Yuan, then they have to convert massive trillions of USD into Yuan, consequences?
- massive appreciation on Yuan, USD plunging, hurt China export big time as China goods will no longer cheap in international market
- Politic pressure from US on China.