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 Stock Market V11, Stock Market talk

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cherroy
post Apr 5 2008, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(dsugums @ Apr 5 2008, 01:06 AM)
hahaha, that's the same thinking I had with MRCB. Bought at 1.40, then next day jatuh to 1.33! Then try to average out to make it 1.37 thinking it will recover. 3rd day jatuh to 1.30  cry.gif  Cannot sell also. Bank call me to settle the payment, but told them to take it  cry.gif

Hold some more stock from the averaging. Still price never recover today. Sold it off with massive losses. Price still dropping until closing. All because I thought it will move up, but it didn't.

My observation is that, if the stock close at bottom out price without recovering, you are going to fried the next day. Initially will go up a bit during opening, but will back very fast before you know it. And you will be thinking the price will go up again, but it wont.

*
Errr.. talking of using average strategy, it is always advisable not to average if the stock falls not so significantly. 1.40 to 1.33 is not a significantly difference unless you have bottomless 'bullets' then different story.
Too soon, shooting out all bullets, it is very fast ended with bare and naked body with emptied bullet gun which exposure fully either being slaughtered by the market or get away with some gain if market did turn around. laugh.gif

But the millions dollar question, how many time, can one get it correctly each time? You need at least 2 to 3 times of gain to cover 1 times of loss espeically if holding power is weak.

For short term play on goreng stock, it is more appropriate play on momentum. You ride with momentum to gain. Catching a falling dagger, most of the time will end with loss. As playing short term with goreng stock, you generally don't care about how expensive or how cheap the stock is, you only play the differentiate in buying and selling price aka you buy then hope next few days goes up. So it is more appropriate to go for momemtum when the stock is in a bullish trend. But if try to catch the bottom when it is going down, you need to have bottomless bullets to do so, as no one knows how low it will be and when it will go back up. Market need time to recover one. Once bull run ended, it will take a will before next bull emerge. Market can easily be hovering almost at the same level for 1-2 years without any break through to the upside.

This doesn't apply to those aim for long term and strong fundamental stock. Above statement is more suit to short term play on goreng stock.

Just my 2 cents, don't necessary approriate and right.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Apr 5 2008, 10:31 AM
cherroy
post Apr 5 2008, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(c0c0nut @ Apr 5 2008, 10:58 AM)
not a bad result for me....i think still ok...go go go kosmo !!!
*
At the moment, never mind about DJ unless got some global stocks or global funds, as even DJ surged 391 points, KLSE also down 10 points. nod.gif
cherroy
post Apr 5 2008, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(DJWC @ Apr 5 2008, 12:53 PM)
Hi,

I'm eyeing for carlsberg for 3.80. If i can get it. Then i should wait for my dividend
in the next payout.  drool.gif
Thank YOu.    biggrin.gif

*
I doubt it that Carlsberg can drop to 3.80 before its ex-dividend, unless some catastrophic event happens.

But uou can get 3.80 after ex-dividend because at 4.10 after ex 30 cents dividend then become 3.80 liao. laugh.gif
cherroy
post Apr 5 2008, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(WinDs @ Apr 5 2008, 04:02 PM)
It's true .. Ppl is collecting this stock based on their high dividen yield, but I value Guinness as a better buy when we put both of their future P/E into the picture.

PS: And you should never doubt our Master Cherroy ..  tongue.gif
*
Yup, Guiness has better prospect than Carlsberg currently, Tiger beer is more popular than Carlsberg.
I had both before, but now don't have both either. Carlsberg sold off at between 5-5.20. Guiness at 5.80-6.

Carlsberg has some internal restructuring since the poor financial result, there are some management changes within and its CEO.
Just view with dividend of 30 cents, effective just like buying at 3.80-3.90.

PS: please don't call me Master, sound not good at all. Everyone is the same in stock market. nod.gif

QUOTE(DJWC @ Apr 5 2008, 04:04 PM)
Hi,

Then should i queue for it or not ?  Yes... NO... Yes... NO....

smile.gif
*
You can try, it is a free market, everyone can Q whatever price they wish as long within 30% range trading limit. smile.gif
cherroy
post Apr 7 2008, 09:12 AM

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QUOTE(Kathy0_0 @ Apr 6 2008, 11:56 PM)
Hi, iam new to stock & i wan to buy my 1st stock TGOFFS-WA
Any comment on this stock?
*
Primary question on warrant,
Do you know how much is the exercise price of the warrant and its expiration date?
cherroy
post Apr 7 2008, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(dsugums @ Apr 7 2008, 03:38 PM)
KLSE looks like zombie, moving aimlessly from morning  rclxub.gif
*
Partly affected by political uncertainty. Nobody wants to make a move. Last night PM speech didn't help to clear up the air.

There are plenty of 1 lot buying today, try to make the KLCI 'green'. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Apr 7 2008, 04:03 PM
cherroy
post Apr 7 2008, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Apr 7 2008, 04:13 PM)
KLCI is a plain dead fish (like what you see right now) without FF!
*
Then need to eat 'salted fish' everyday (use dead fish to make), no more abalone like last year. biggrin.gif


Added on April 7, 2008, 4:26 pm
QUOTE(dsugums @ Apr 7 2008, 04:20 PM)
Tomorrow last day for me to trade. Leaving to Australia tomorrow night  cry.gif

Not sure whether can access the net until Friday  sweat.gif  Better clear all my contra by tomorrow
*
Then enjoy your trip. smile.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Apr 7 2008, 04:26 PM
cherroy
post Apr 7 2008, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(verbatim @ Apr 7 2008, 04:31 PM)
US futures up 79 pts... If Dow up more than 100 points, all contra kakis better throw early trade tmrw...
*
Errr...

Now KLSE is a bit detached from overseas and US market. Today actually is quite a good day for all major bourses, but KLSE is like dead fish.
cherroy
post Apr 7 2008, 06:07 PM

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QUOTE(kinwawa @ Apr 7 2008, 05:15 PM)
oh....so apa macam??? looks like still a boring day hehehehhehe.....time to pack my things n go home lo...take care u all......i will be waiting for the 'sale' season to come again..n i'll be ready...time to keep idle n collect bullets hehehehe
*
For near term, overseas bourses seems a bit bullish at the moment. You need another Bear Sterns to have 'sale' or local political turmoil. Otherwise, market especially KLSE seems like going nowhere.
cherroy
post Apr 7 2008, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(Vv.SoViEt.vV @ Apr 7 2008, 09:13 PM)
skiddtrader, sharesa,

well, it's not a secret or anything. As a general scenario, this "company" is taking over a local construction company ("Acquisition") that has massive potential in the future. Thus, the company is launching the above proposal. My questions are:

1) Why share splits?
2) What is ROS and propose placement? placement for new shares?

should have done my own research.. hee.
*
Mind to tell which company?
Only read through overall it only can comment and explain on it.

Share split - primary objective is to increase liquidity of the shares in the market with increment in number of shares as well as 'cheapen' the share price to a more affordable level to retailers, eg. Genting, previously traded at Rm40, with 1:5 split it become Rm8.00.

Placement of new shares - issuing new shares for company funding with targetting specific investors, not for public, similar to right issue.
cherroy
post Apr 9 2008, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(chen9wei @ Apr 9 2008, 08:26 AM)
Oh ya, i heard from my remisier that there is no tax for this year right ? Anyway, whats the stock name / code for the dayang enterprise ? I couldnt find the name "dayang" ....
*
Wrong, your remiser is a bit misleading you already. Not actually no tax.

Before 2008, dividend is given as gross like RM0.10 per share less tax 26% then your pay cheque (if you have 1000 shares) will be RM 74 (100 - 26). The Rm26 deducted can be claimed back if your personal income is not subjected to tax.

But after 2008, the dividend is taxed at corporate front first aka when company decide to give Rm0.10 per share, they will declare a single tier system of RM0.074 net, mean you still get the pay cheque of Rm74, but it is net, no more claim back even your total personal income is not subejcted to tax.


Added on April 9, 2008, 11:01 am
QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Apr 9 2008, 10:19 AM)
i agree, that's why i must have sufficient reason for myself before jumping in any goreng boat  rolleyes.gif
*
Yup, recently the goreng boat is very small only like sampan, a little more people come in, sink already. laugh.gif


This post has been edited by cherroy: Apr 9 2008, 11:01 AM
cherroy
post Apr 9 2008, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(wonsim @ Apr 9 2008, 09:22 AM)
If there is tax deduction, is true that will get lesser. But when at the end of the day, when you do your income statement, your income cannot reach certain amount, you can rebate and get back some portion from the government.
*
No more for 2008 financial year onwards.
cherroy
post Apr 9 2008, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Apr 9 2008, 11:07 AM)
ghosh, the market looks like a haunted house

nobody dare to enter

volume so thin, and not much activity sweat.gif
*
Actually the longer the market goes like that, the better opportunities to go in. If look at historical chart whatever period, low volume market is the time to go in for long term investment, provided it is not a low volume up trend market, but a low volume sideway and a bit down trend one.
cherroy
post Apr 9 2008, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(PBB boleh @ Apr 9 2008, 11:50 AM)
magnum still got TONS of people Q at 3.36  biggrin.gif
magic buying price but nobody wants to throw tongue.gif
*
At 3.36, they are making instant some peanut profit out of it, why not? Queueing don't need to pay a single cent one. biggrin.gif

The party intends to take Magnum private one also will queue as it means slightly lower buying price for them at this price.

So you will see tons of Q everyday, unless the privatisation is calling off which very very unlikely.
cherroy
post Apr 9 2008, 02:33 PM

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QUOTE(aretla @ Apr 9 2008, 12:48 PM)
so normally when is the time that ppl will start goreng those warrant?? means buy and sell both are crowded..
the above case seems those ppl bought during the goreng season, but tak sempat let go the warrant b4 the goreng season end..
plus call warrant cannot convert to mother share..
so they are holding toilet paper now..
am i rite ar? tongue.gif
*
Basically yes. Oppss, but now is CDS, it is paperless, so need to use to bare hand to wash your butt, even paper also doesn't have. laugh.gif

Once goreng season is over, then it is over.
You need timing, crowd, market condition, basically all are right place at a right time to have a goreng season, not simply you want to goreng already can, even your got billions of $$, one also can't fight against the market force.

QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Apr 9 2008, 02:08 PM)
in short, goreng season is over

the biggest winner is the 3rd party investment house like OSK, CIMB who issue those foreign warrants

you win, they also win
you lose, they still win
*
That's why I am not a big fan of CWs, mainly because when they issued the warrant, the issuing price normally already 15-20% more premium, aka they indirectly dispose the share to you at 15-20% higher, while you only have 6-7 months to wait the price to go up more than the premium price set. Issuing house always has the upper hand on this.
Eg. We have 3 condition on the market -> up, stagnant, down. They (issuing house) have 2/3 of chance winning while retailers have 1/3 only, if scrutinise the 15-20% premium, it is even less than 1/3. It is not normal or always have a market that rise more than 15-20% in 6-7 months period. In fact, taking long term average, market average return rate is in teen number only.




cherroy
post Apr 9 2008, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Apr 9 2008, 12:01 PM)
cherroy are you one of them who queue for MAGNUM? tongue.gif
*
Not bother, won't get it anyway. There are tons of people queue in front of you.

Think ahead, if the buyers queue is 'finished', means there are sellers come out to sell in so large amount of share until finish the buyers' Q, it just means something wrong on Magnum privatisation proposal already, price will come down, then it is not good of getting it either.

So when you queue at last, it means you are exposed yourself to be slaughtered only. It is the same for all, like goreng or whatever that has large quantity of Q between buyers or sellers one.
If you queue at the last, means disadvantage only.
cherroy
post Apr 9 2008, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(jongkolkhoo @ Apr 9 2008, 02:46 PM)
what cherroy means  ---->is that cw is not for us to goreng but rather it is to goreng those who touch it.
rclxub.gif
something like this?
doh.gif
*
Not actually, Just highlight if one tries to play fundamental part like normal stocks, then generally (not necessary) speaking looking for trouble only.
CWs are purely for goreng purposes and only buy when market is in bull run time which is the only way one can make money out of it, but need to 'run' fast as well.

While issuing house is the ultimate winner of this. It is like a casino open a table for you all to bet, but the casino (issuing house) already taking up 15-20% commission from the bet first, then only let you all to fight /bet against each other, eventually who lose or win among you all, they don't need to care as they have pocketed the money.

Also it is no coincidence CWs being issued aggressively during market peak time, issuing house are not dump also, they knew especially China related stocks are in bubble, so issued during bubble time will fetch up high exercise price.

cherroy
post Apr 9 2008, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(jongkolkhoo @ Apr 9 2008, 02:48 PM)
good . all come to thailand.. i belanja makan sea food untill lau sai .. here is cheap.
*
Then we all go to Thailand for some gathering, you belanja all, including Tiger show. rclxms.gif rclxm9.gif

Opss OT liao, market too boring I suppose.
cherroy
post Apr 9 2008, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(chen9wei @ Apr 9 2008, 03:14 PM)
is it ? I am a student ler, scared that cant control myself and use all to buy and no money to pay back if loose all .
*
It is part of self-controlled and financial management as well.

In stock market, emotion control and cool head are also key points to make wise decision.
cherroy
post Apr 9 2008, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(lklatmy @ Apr 9 2008, 03:28 PM)
Big drop in Shanghai now,almost 5 %,other Asia Pacific mostly red too.Think carefully before buying anything.
*
Bubble burst in the process.

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