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TScherroy
post Feb 28 2008, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(kinwawa @ Feb 28 2008, 03:19 PM)
sorry....care to xplain what beta means??? still learning leh.... tongue.gif
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Beta is a technical term, the higher the beta is, the higher the price volatility. For high beta stock, its price movement can be signficant that you can do trading on it. For low beta, its price moves lesser means you will find trading a bit difficult to gain/loss much.

Generally if one aims for short term gain, higher beta stocks is preferred.

This is nothing to do with long term holding. Beta high or low won't affect the long term trend, it is just for short term trading purposes as comparison between stocks. For short term trading purposes, the most important is the price differentiate between buy and sell only.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 28 2008, 03:44 PM
TScherroy
post Feb 28 2008, 04:16 PM

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QUOTE(dEviLs @ Feb 28 2008, 04:08 PM)
err I'm not sure if you are referring to the beta coefficient from the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), if yes then i would like to point out that beta is in fact a measure of volatility of a stock or portfolio in relation to the rest of the financial market and not the price volatility alone unsure.gif

An asset with a beta of 0 means that its price is not at all correlated with the market; that asset is independent. A positive beta means that the asset generally follows the market. A negative beta shows that the asset inversely follows the market; the asset generally decreases in value if the market goes up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_coefficient
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I am comparing the beta with the KLCI.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/102401.asp

Yes, it doesn't necessary directly reflect the price volatility alone, it measure the price volatility against something else generally market indices. But it can be a indicator how much its price moves compared to overall market.

Thanks for highlighten, my apology if too simplify in my previous post that might lead to confusion or misunderstanding.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 28 2008, 04:18 PM
TScherroy
post Feb 29 2008, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(sharesa @ Feb 29 2008, 10:41 AM)
yeah, in these times , believe in yourself, analysts can say anything. They talk according to the wind direction tongue.gif
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Yes, analysts are 'cari makan' one also. Mostly, they don't dare to be contrarian or against the market wind.
It is your hard-earned money, you decide how you want to do with it, don't need to follow exactly as analysts said. Take it as reference but decide your own. If analysts are right everytime then they already become like Warren Buffet, don't need to work as analysts anymore. No offence to those analysts, instead professional analysts do give good advice and recommendation, just to remind people don't follow blindly, but takes it as good reference.

Just not far away (few months old) when Google share is surging strongly from 400 -> 600+, most analysts put a buy call and set the target price of 700-800 some even 900. Now after some mini-plunge of Google share now become 400+ then a lot of analysts slash their target price become 500-600. It all happens just in few month old time only.
TScherroy
post Feb 29 2008, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(okk @ Feb 29 2008, 11:38 AM)
The author sees stock market as a market, what it means is we are consumers, stocks are the goods, and those professional traders pool and syndicates are the seller. They will always purchase stock with low price and try to get us to buy with higher price, so we are not a partner to them, we are their customers. If you look at this relationship, you will have a completely different view on stock market. He gave a completely detail scenario on how this is manipulated with news, earning reports, etc...

He also brought up a good point. A stock direction by default is GOING DOWN. Unless there is someone actively playing or supporting it, it won't go up. And I totally agree with that. For example, GENTING might be a good company but if the big players are not playing it, do you think GENTING stock will rise?
Vice versa to those unknown stocks, if the big players play it, they will go up, regardless what the company is doing or it is making loss...

3 reasons when the pro are called in to manipulate the stocks:
1. When the big shareholder want to liquidate their share to get cash, they will ask the pro to help them jack up the price so they can sell at better profit.
2. When the company want to release new IPO or new shares, they will engage pro to publish news that this company is a very good company, so more ppl will rush in to buy the stock after IPO or new shares release.
3. When the company want to takeover or purchase company XYZ. They will engage pro to suppress company XYZ stock price so that they can buy with cheap price.

The author mentions it's NOT POSSIBLE for us to guess who is buying or selling. The most we can do is see how mcuh volume going and wats the quickness of the volume being transacted. All these pros will disguise themselves in their operations.
One more thing, when all ppl are heading to the same direction, that means something is wrong...
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I partly agree of the article but partly disagree.

This article is best to describe those 'goreng' stock situation. It is not applicable to all.

In investment world, it is all about return rate. If a stock that can generate profit/dividend to shareholders that is significant more than FD interest rate, then you don't need 'big players' to drive the share price. People will automatically will to buy. This factor is already strong enough to drive up the share price.
Also, to gain in stock market, one doesn't need to gain through the price appreciation alone, if a stock is giving steady and consistently dividend let say 7-10%, you don't need to sell or wait for the share price appreciation to gain, you already gain through the dividend alone every year! Share price appreciation become a extra bonus only.

But this article is definitely true on some lousy and 'goreng' type of stock, whereby company financial situation hardly convincing and no dividend and hardly got one. Their share price is all about people willing to 'goreng' it. Those manipulation technic does happen in stock market, no doubt about that.

When all people are heading the same direction, which means there would be bubbling process. Yes, that's right, on something wrong

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 29 2008, 01:52 PM
TScherroy
post Feb 29 2008, 03:16 PM

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CPO has hit 4001 just now. sweat.gif
TScherroy
post Feb 29 2008, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Feb 29 2008, 04:20 PM)
we wan price rally rally rally!

i miss the day when we are at 1400 to 1450 rolleyes.gif
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Actually KLCI just drop a little only, 1400 is not too far away, supported by mostly on plantation counters.

Price already rally mah, -> toll price, petrol price, food price, gold price etc. tongue.gif doh.gif
Better don't have this kind of rally sweat.gif

Actually, even stock market (share price) also rally, the real gain for the public is minimum. Stock price rally, you gain 10%, food price and expenses also rise 10%, one actually gain nothing in real term. It is worst for the 'makan gaji' one, for sure most salary won't be rising 10%.
TScherroy
post Feb 29 2008, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(chinkw1 @ Feb 29 2008, 04:35 PM)
WOWWWwwwwwwwww..........

OIL 103 and going strong marching towards 110.
CPO 4000 before we cross to March, and uptrend towards 4500.

Malaysia inflation will be high this year, very significantly higher than past years.

Malaysia economy will be great too bcoz we are exporting huge scale of palm oil.

BOLEH.........
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It only benefitted the sector of plantation and comodities and small portion of the public, while general public and lower income group will suffer big time.

Again some 'jokers' in the market buy all 1 lot all index linked counter, Maybank, MISC, BAT, IOI, Genting, Tenaga, Commerz, Petgas etc, try to make the index a little bit higher. Why? because today is the settlement of the FKLI! biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 29 2008, 04:43 PM
TScherroy
post Feb 29 2008, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Feb 29 2008, 04:52 PM)
8 min more...now at 1359
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Turn 'green' at close? brows.gif

If it does, then only can say Malaysia Boleh. rclxms.gif doh.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Feb 29 2008, 04:56 PM
TScherroy
post Feb 29 2008, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(chinkw1 @ Feb 29 2008, 05:09 PM)
CPO up above 4000, its a big push from plantationsss........

But how come IOI drop so much leh, scratchingmy head.... icon_question.gif
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Because market doesn't believe it is sustainable for long term. Don't know market is right or not. Your guess is good as others now.

It is as same as gold situation, gold price sky-rocketed to USD950, but gold mining stocks only up marginally as same as oil stocks situation.
TScherroy
post Mar 1 2008, 09:07 AM

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QUOTE(chinkw1 @ Mar 1 2008, 12:03 AM)
Just found this shocking news.
Cannot believe it.

Recently, ALL plantations companies revealed handsome financial reports, some announced up to 200% higher than the corresponding previous quarter. Thumbs up for plantations.

But, there is one that announced worse than previous quarter. guess which one is it?
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...28&sec=business
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Not that shocking either, once you have been old enough in the market, you won't find this quite shocking anymore.

Told you back when discussing about Synergy Drive time, mega merger is not 1 + 1 = 2, sometimes it is 1 + 1 = 1.5 only. Most (although not all) GLCs again and again disappointing the market. Its plantation businesses still running fine, the more concern part is Sime taking up Bakun project one.
Actually the previous/initial proposed Synergy Drive as pure plantation stock is more appealing than a conglomerate which is more attractive to foreign investors. If it is a pure plantation then with CPO sky-rocketed, its share will be performing more magnificient. But this proposal suddenly being off-course in the middle, nobody knows why, even Synergy Drive name being discarded. The deal become more like Sime takes over the other companies.

The key question, why some others similar within the same industry can post good result while GLCs cannot? sad.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 1 2008, 09:25 AM
TScherroy
post Mar 1 2008, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Mar 1 2008, 09:32 AM)
2nd opinion :-

Sime : Operating profit is up by 66% . But the co wrote off some unusual big item, so the net profit drops.

Genting : Operating profit rose marginally even with Asiatic. Some big item gain makes the net profit more attractive.

Both have impact on EPS. It is up to you to interpret the results. Could be misleading at times.

just my 2sen opinion.

P/S > MAS in the past used to sell off airplanes at profits to make accounts more attractive.
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This is the concern part. It is not the first time already since after taking over the Bakun project.

Yes, one always should look into the details to analyse the earning result. On the front, sometimes can be misleading without properly analyse the details, why earning goes up or down. Generally market will prefer and view the most positively with profit increment that are purely generated by businesses revenue or increse in profit margin in all or at core businesses.

Just like Sime, after the mega-merger, it will include the earning of previously GHope, Guthrie, H&L etc. So profit surely increases as size of company become 2x, 3x bigger already, so it is better to look at net operating earning of EPS will give a clue whether the merger is effective or ineffective.
TScherroy
post Mar 3 2008, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Mar 3 2008, 10:15 AM)
anyway, GENTING is coming to 6.50 soon, where is our cherroy? biggrin.gif
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Hi, roger, roger. nod.gif

Not yet 6.50, unless have another round of sell-off.
Not meant to be long term holding either, aim for short term trading for the 6.50, like last time out.

Market is quite calm and quiet although with significant drop.

Added on March 3, 2008, 11:44 amCPO might in the bubbling process, that's why plantation stocks won't follow the trend of CPO.
I might be wrong, but for sure the huge plunge on USD will only make the world-side inflation become worsen. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 3 2008, 11:44 AM
TScherroy
post Mar 3 2008, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Mar 3 2008, 02:57 PM)
KNM...
good news ya?
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Too early to tell without details and target of acquisition.
TScherroy
post Mar 3 2008, 04:02 PM

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FCPO now above 4250 level liao sweat.gif
This is become crazy now, everday goes up RM100-200 sweat.gif

Btw, FKLI for spot month (March) now trading below 1300 level already. A huge 30+ points discount.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 3 2008, 04:06 PM
TScherroy
post Mar 3 2008, 04:51 PM

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QUOTE(sharesa @ Mar 3 2008, 04:26 PM)
woah...if CPO price retreats, I think our KLCI will lose about 50 points, may drag down other non-related industries too.

The best is stay around that level.
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I prefer that CPO retreat and KLCI goes down rather than inflation sky-rocketing.

If CPO stay at current level, lot of products price will need to be increased, ranging from cooking oil, foods, daily usage products. <-- it is more harm than your plantation stocks goes down.
TScherroy
post Mar 3 2008, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Mar 3 2008, 05:30 PM)
I read a report that many plantations might not benefit from the high current prices bcos they odeli locked in 80% profit at CPO price RM 3,000++.  Could be wrong anyway.

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Yes, at Rm3000+, it is already extremely profitability for them. They would rather hedge rather seeing price goes down afterwards. It is always wise to hedge some portion as you won't know how future will be especially it is already in the high profitibility level.

QUOTE(okk @ Mar 3 2008, 05:28 PM)
For example, hoping that foreign fund will come in after GE, this is a baseless hope (well, it might be true in the end though) because there is no data supporting it. We as retail investors, should only invest based on what you see now, because we do not have the chance to be the 'insider'. Instead of guessing around, we should stop to guess.
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Yup, this is baseless hope. That's why previous before GE, I already said don't put too high hope of GE alone.

Stock market is about future potential earning return. If future earning won't be improving, then there is not much reason for people to buy the share at higher price so stock market won't go up. On the other hand, if future is robust and earning is going to improve then return rate would be handsome then share price will go up because people eager to have them.
So better take the economy clue and business environment situation to determine where the stock market will go rather than hope this, hope that (No offence, it is natural so for people hope share price shoot up after they had bought). Stock market is not about 50 chance goes up or 50 chance goes down one, it is a leading indicator how economy will perform in next 6 months or 1 years time.

QUOTE(okk @ Mar 3 2008, 05:39 PM)
On top of that, a lot of palm oil processing companies have already closed shops or almost dying because the raw material price is too high now, their profit margin becomes so small that they can't sustain their business.
So when the CPO is too high as of now, it won't last because all the processing companies will die off, which means there is no one taking the raw materials from palm oil companies like IOI, ASIATIC, etc....so based on my opinion, CPO price will not last long because it's aredi at critical level...
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IOI does have downstream industry like palm oil refining etc as well.

Added on March 3, 2008, 5:56 pm
QUOTE(chinkw1 @ Mar 3 2008, 04:55 PM)
The data i attain is wrong is it on CPO ??
My data shows today, CPO up by 10%, a whooping +393 to 4243.0. 10% up in a single day. Sure or not???? Can someone verify this pls.

OMG, imagine how much things will increase in price after GE. 
Ya true. IF CPO price retreat, i think klse will down easily to below 1300 instantly.
Now klse still not so hurt bcoz our plantation counters only decline a bit only. but when cpo free fall, imagine IOI, KLK, SIME free fall...
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The last price may be right, but +393 might not, might be using Thursday close price liao.
Today up a whooping more than Rm300 to close at 4308, look at the volume! More than 10k, it just show massive speculation is in place.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/ma...derivatives.jsp

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 3 2008, 05:56 PM
TScherroy
post Mar 3 2008, 06:17 PM

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QUOTE(sinclairZX81 @ Mar 3 2008, 06:09 PM)
I'm staying at the sidelines now, cheap may become cheaper.  sweat.gif
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Then cheaper become cheapest. icon_idea.gif brows.gif

I don't think currently level of stock price can be considered dirt cheap (yet). Something like don't need to rush for it.

It is more like fairly value, not too cheap, not too expensive (in general as some stocks may be expensive already and some stocks become quite cheap)

Just my opinion only, not necessay right.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 3 2008, 06:17 PM
TScherroy
post Mar 4 2008, 11:34 AM

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Genting now is 6.50/6.55 liao brows.gif after 5-6 months of patient time.

CPO currently down more than Rm150 after early morning rise more than Rm100. A huge more than Rm250 turn around in hour time.

CPO is highly and overly speculate already.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 4 2008, 11:39 AM
TScherroy
post Mar 4 2008, 01:29 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Mar 4 2008, 12:32 PM)
ahh i see someone bought 100 lot of GENTING at 6.50, is that you cherroy? biggrin.gif
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That one is a sell transaction, not buy loh.

I usually trade with the volume of multiple of 1000...one. tongue.gif
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 4 2008, 01:30 PM
TScherroy
post Mar 4 2008, 01:38 PM

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QUOTE(dreams_achiever @ Mar 4 2008, 01:33 PM)
A selling, then there must be have B buying that shares..hehe tongue.gif
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For the particular transaction (100 lots done at Rm6.50)
What I meant is the people whom want to buy can't control how much being done. You can be in the buy queue, but the amount of matched is determined how front is your queue. This transaction is done with seller intends to sell, buyer just wait/queue being 'thrown' at them.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Mar 4 2008, 01:39 PM
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