I personally think this correction will reach 1350-1370 level before it bounces back (based on the last 2 major corrections and the support line). Of course there will be some pullbacks in between.

However if it drops below 1350, then it's really a doomsday...

This post has been edited by okk: Jan 17 2008, 09:08 AM

I still believe the index will drop to 1350-1370 level, so trade with caution...there is always a lower low....

Based on 2 previous corrections, 1350-1370 is the heavy support, if the index still drops below that, I will be extra defensive on market

One lesson I learnt when I got burnt teruk, never buy on dip...
The reason is very simple, will u catch a falling dagger?

What's the basis that we think the market will rebound when it's dropping? it's dropping now, tis is the fact, so if we analyze rationally, we should be more prone to that it will drop more, not it will rise tomorrow...

Everything has to be data driven, and not Hope driven, I learnt to buy on rise after that and believe it or not, my records prove a lot better....

Just my humble opinion...

Many people think 1st priority in investing is to make money, for me, it's not.
Making money is the reason why you go into investing, but priority is capital protection.
Whatever you do, you try your best not to lose your capital.
You must have a reason why you buy a stock even when it's "fear when ppl greed...greed when ppl fear".

But if you are going in with the hope that it will go back up because it already drop so much, well, I doubt that....

Again, just my opinion..

All these are accumulated from bad experience, never burnt never learnt

I have another experience to share with you guys on buying low.
Well this is my preference, I dare not say it's right, but I am sharing my experience.

Ssome people including one of my friends like to buy shares at 52 weeks low. And he kena many times that the shares go lower.

After all these learnings, I bought MASTEEL at 52 years high, and believe it, it keeps going higher....
So our psychology might tell us that "why buy such an expensive stock which is already at 52 weeks high?", but for me, reality is different. There must be a reason why a stock grow to all time high. So you just ride on the momentum and set a very small cut loss price in case you get it wrongly. This is how I do my risk management now.
When it reaches my target profit price, I will set a profit lock price, for example 75%. So if the momentum stops and comes down, once it goes back down to the profit lock price, I will sell it, in that case I still make 75% of the profit.

I always believe in buy with momentum, rather than bottom fishing. I am not against bottom fishing but there must be a reason why a stock bottoms out, remember we must know the REASON....

With this trading plan., nowadays I trade with no emotions. I don't feel stressed as well coz everything is planned out. I am just following the plan

This post has been edited by okk: Jan 18 2008, 02:54 PM

Yes, buy on rise and buy on momentum.
Be very strict with cut loss price, minimal loss, coz when you buy a stock today, you don't expect it to drop the next few days. If that happens, that means you get the stock wrong, so you must sell it immediately with smallest loss.

I always set my cut loss price to 3% only from purchase price.
For example, I bought Kencana at 2.500, it dropped to 2.430, I sold it at loss because already breach 3% and this is not wat I expected from it. So now Kencana is less than 2.400, this plan has reduced my loss

When the momentum is back, only I re-enter the position....

Glad to hear that my opinion can help you.
Actually I use 3% normally, but if you think you are very confident with a stock, then set it even smaller like 2%.

Yes, as long as you have the capital, why worry no chance to gain money in the future? Why bet with a stock which is dropping and against your plan? Think about it....

Happy investing!

That is why few days ago I opened a thread asking about online broker which can provide stop loss order.
That means auto sell off for you if the price drops to certain price...
Well seems like tis is not available in Msia, which is really very bad for investor risk management...

Anyway you can subscribe to those sms service, where it will sms to you when the price of a stock reaches certain level...Maxis has that, MyEdgeDaily also got, but one sms is RM0.50, damn expensive....

don't have any plantation stock, right now I have zero counters actually.
All plantation stock right now is overvalued, based on my analysis....

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Added on January 18, 2008, 3:18 pmAgree, if you are using remisier, make use of your remisier

This post has been edited by okk: Jan 18 2008, 03:18 PM

You can read my mind

You know one statement that I think is very valuable....

"The hardest thing for an investor to learn is not to invest".... Think about it...

That means the market is really undecided now, investors having mixed feelings...

For me, US is already in recession, but the govt and some of the US ppl are still in denial mode...well even technically, they need GDP to slow down for 2 consecutive quarters to prove it's a recession, that means you only know that you are officially in a recession after half a year! Quite ridiculous to me...

Look at the situation right now, falling stock market, banks issues, growth slow down, unemployment on rise, property collapse, commodity price surging, US dollar falling, every data shows this is a recession already....but still the US govt says they are not...

I think it's a bit too late for the stock market even if the US govt can do anything special now.

Everybody is already in disarray and loses confidence. Stock market is all about psychology...

I don't agree...stock market of course is related to economy.
When economy is bad, unemployment increases, and that cause people income to drop.
When income drop, u have less money to invest and stock market will be weak.

Of course if you are talking about sentiment surge, for example, a rise for a few days due to maybe Fed interest rate cut, that is possible but that is purely short term and speculation where people are 'betting' to earn quick money from the sentiment. But long term wise, the stock market will still be weak because generally, people have less money in the pocket to invest.

I forecast it to reach 1350-1370 level, most probably in 2 weeks time.
Don't quote me btw

Just wanna repeat, never try to catch a falling dagger, else you cut your hand, well, up to you anyway

Haha, that's very true...I bought COCOALAND last time when it was falling half way, tot that I got a real bargain, but end up it dropped 20% more, until I called it a day, and if I have held it until today, I am still losing....
That's why I said cut loss at minimal % is also a very important strategy..

Lau dak ching san zhoi, nah pah mou chai siu (cantonese)

Stock drops for a reason, it doesn't drop for it to go back up tomorrow or the next few days....