QUOTE(kinwawa @ Jan 15 2008, 02:11 PM)
ya...i think nothing will be great at this time.....since the subprime issue surfaced....US has not really recovered....recession is getting nearer.....probably when Fed cut rates at the end of the month...there will be temporary relief..
Currently scenario is a little bit complicated, it is not subprime alone. If it is only subprime, then only banking stocks will be affected, stock market overall won't be too bad.
But now it is much more complicated.
Subprime lead to credit crunch --> prompt Fed to cut rate, inject liquidity --> USD plunging --> Commodities price shoot up --> inflation sky rocket --> Fed shouldn't cut rate --> affect consumers spending power --> housing continue the slump --> affect consumers --> Fed should cut rate --> put more pressure down of USD.
Fed is in the 'box' now, cut or don't cut, both also got impact.
Don't mean overly pesimistic about current market condition, just current situation is a bit tricky, not as simple as cutting rate will solve the problem.
If it is controlled properly with approprate action over the time, then market can stage a run up but it things turns out bad, then market will have some hard time.
This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 15 2008, 03:19 PM